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CELSIUS HOLDINGS, INCCELSIUS HOLDINGS, INCCELSIUS HOLDINGS, INC

CELSIUS HOLDINGS, INC

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CELH trade ideas

Can the Madness Continue for CELH?Celsius Holdings has been trading like a meme stock as of late. News of a deal with Pepsico helped fuel the recent surge in stock price. The question I pose is will this bullish momentum in CELH continue despite a slowing global economy? Technicals: There are strong signs of bearish divergences on monthly and weekly timeframes, slightly weaker bearish divergence can be observed on the daily as well. Price action recently surpassed all-time highs around the 110 mark. This could be a head-fake/bull trap, given that price has yet to retest the support of 110. On the other hand, MACD on the monthly, weekly, and daily timeframe are all signaling strong bullish momentum. Volume has been strong in the past couple of months of trading but a large part of that is due to Pepsi entering a 550 million dollar stake in Celsius. Possible cup and handle being formed but also could be a double top of sorts. Technicals for CELH are honestly not the worst, however, the bearish divergence on the RSI should come as a concern to Celsius holders and potential investors. Fundamentals: CELH has a 8.6 billion market cap. Just as some comparisons Lincoln National Corporation is worth around 8.4 billion and BJ's Wholesale Club is worth around 9.8 billion. Celsius has a Trailing P/E of 491 and forward P/E of 303. P/S of 18 and a price to book of 36. Not even Tesla has valuation metrics this inflated. To add to the bearish view, since 05/20/2020 CELH insiders have exclusively sold shares, i.e., 100% of Celsius executives' trades have been sales over the past two-plus years. Dumping a total of 14.6 million shares in that period. Along with this, Revenue growth is decelerating, and gross margins have been slowly declining for several years. As the US heads into an economic slowdown I cannot imagine a scenario where CELH will have meaningful pricing power or any demand inelasticity, as their products are just too new and unproven, and also yet to be adopted by most food and beverage retailers ( yes, I realize the Pepsi involvement will likely help with CELH adoption). CELH is a wildly overvalued company. Macro: Economies across the world are contracting rather quickly. PMI numbers came out earlier this month showing a slowing in business activity in both developed and emerging countries. Europe is facing the possibility of hyperinflation and the ECB is not signaling a stop anytime soon in Monetary tightening. With those headwinds in mind and many more -like a US housing recession- playing out over the next years, it is incredibly hard for me to see continued price appreciation in Celsius Holdings' stock. ' Prediction: In all honesty I have been dead wrong on this stock before. All though it's not my base case, I do think bullish momentum could carry this one up to as much as 145 a share in the short/med term. Although further appreciation is a possibility I really do not see this company performing well over the coming years. Over the coming years CELH should see a revisit of the 19.1-7.21 range before a bottom is in place. As always this is not financial advice. Good Luck!
NASDAQ:CELHShort
by Gooby_Trades
CELH Fundamental Outlook Equity financing has allowed CELH to avoid holding any meaningful debt on their balance sheet. Total revenues for CELH has grown at an impressive clip during it's 15 year history of being a public company. Despite their strong revenue growth Celsius has consistently struggled to convert their strong top line into strong EPS and profit margins, (this is partly due to the added shareholders from share dilution). The larger issues surrounding CELH stock is their inability to consistently turn a profit, also, due to their relatively small scale operating revenue and limited brand recognition they lack pricing power. CELH has a price/book of 22. A price/sales of 13. CELH also has 6.66% of shares outstanding held short. CELH is overvalued . Celsius is growing revenues rapidly, but there are numerous macro and geopolitical risks that all businesses are facing at the moment and small companies with low profitability historically underperform the broader market in extra turbulent times. The CELH health energy drink business model may at some point pay off, but I do not believe that day will come anytime soon. In fact, one of CELH's biggest competitors MNST did well over 10x the total revenues of CELH in 2021. One of Celsius's other competitors KO, currently holds 10.25 billion in free cash flow which is over double the total market cap of CELH. Albeit these stats are biasedly handpicked by myself, but they do encapsulate the overall message here, which is: CELH is very small relative to competitors and they lack the fire power that the titans in the drink industry have. The fact is that CELH will need to expand if they want to continue to grow revenues and attract investment, which means more buildings, more employees, more advertising, etc. CELH will therefore have to pay inflated prices on these new assets and projects which most established drink companies like KO, and MNST can avoid doing (at least temporarily). The outlook does not look pleasant for CELH in the coming years. The company will need to establish itself as a dominant brand among drink consumers in the U.S. market. As for right now, 397 million in yearly revenue is not going to cut it. Especially when there is a war in Europe, inflation at 40 year highs, and U.S. interest rates are at their highest levels in a decade. Price Prediction: I am expecting a breakdown in share price to the support area at around 24 a share within the next six months or so. I believe a move down to the support area of 7.21 a share is in store before any long term bottoms are formed. This is not financial advice. These are just my thoughts. Good luck!
NASDAQ:CELHShort
by Gooby_Trades
CELH - Monster Stock of 2020 & 20211) This one held up immensely well - showing good relative strength against the market recently, and was a huge winner for many in 2020 and 2021. 2) Earnings continue to beat analyst expectations with the last quarter EPS surprise being 200%. 3) The stock has very recently reclaimed both the 50 and 200 SMA. However, its recent price action might provide an opportunity for an early entry, with price tightening last week on relatively lower volume. 4) I want to see price break out of the downward wedge on higher volume to consider an entry into CELH.
NASDAQ:CELHLong
by cletibals