Good time to buy Costco (COST)Weak buy signal with the red+blue cross underneath the Kumo, and lagging strand is showing consolidation. This typically means "wait for more information" but we are approaching a strong support in the trend channel and momentum is pointing towards a reversal.
I'd keep a stop loss around the 238 level, but even if we unload at 247 that's a solid 3:1 risk to reward ratio.
COST trade ideas
COST: Welcome to CostCo Earnings, I love you!This one was truly a no-brainer for me the other day, but I was waiting to publish on the earnings news. COST is up 5% is afterhours with a potential blowout day tomorrow on market open. I also believe that the financial media will latch onto this good news from them with a fervor in hopes of pushing back a little on this current bear market sell off index wide. I do believe that COST has a possible long run up, but I'll be setting my stops tight until I see upward action for longer than a week. I bought into this a few days ago anticipating that the post-earnings action would be an upward reversion towards a long term mean because even though COST did rise slightly in January, they didn't experience a stellar blowout like some others and I felt that they were due with their holiday shopping earnings report the same as TGT and KSS. I do have profits from TGT and stayed out of KSS because of higher volatility, and it appears the cautious value investor in me made the right decision in this choppy market.
MACD has been floating mildly flatly with only a minor dip today that bounced back of the signal line in after hours activity. The bullish breakout in January wasn't strong enough to pull up the ADX trend strength index above a 20 yet, and I suspected that the +DI would bounce off the -DI as a support in the couple of days leading up into earnings to have a sharp breakout above the 50 and 200 day moving averages as resistance is being tested and the bulls will win have won out on earnings in pre-market. RSI appears to be testing a resistance near 50 as well, but momentum is beginning to look positive and may remain so if the breakout settles into a strong trend channel upward. Money flow is positive, and it looks like the few bears that bet on a bad earnings call are going to get squeezed out fairly quickly for some easy bull trap bait. Volume began to rise right before the call, and will break out hard tomorrow on market open, too.
Welcome to CostCo, I love you!
COSTCO... another Amazon's victim? Last reporting data was ok, net sales for the quarter increased 10.8 percent, to $32.28 billion from $29.13 billion last year. Net sales for the first 24 weeks of fiscal 2018 increased 12.0 percent, to $63.40 billion from $56.60 billion last year.
The Company gained an incremental sales day in the quarter due to the shift of Thanksgiving, however pre-Thanksgiving and Black Friday holiday weekend sales fell in the first quarter this year, versus the second quarter last year. This negatively impacted this year’s second quarter sales by approximately 1.4% in the U.S., and slightly less worldwide and negatively impacted E-commerce sales by approximately 7-8%.
However, my expectation for COST is around $220.00, even after rose $170 per share at the end of 2018.
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Costco 12 RRR shortTrading Methodology:
1. An asymmetric bullish/bearish pennant is drawn using ascending and descending curved trend lines with a minimum of three price action touche points per line. The direction is determined by the previous trend.
2. The angle tool is applied from the earliest two trend touch points, beginning at the earliest touch point.
3. A trend-based Fibonacci retracement triangle is drawn starting from the earliest trend touch point and ending at the earliest touch point of the opposite trend line .
4. Based on the degree, of the earlier defined angle, the appropriate (and secret) levels are selected for the fibonacci retracement ; two levels for stop-loss and two levels for take-profit. The closest stop-loss level to the current price level is the top priority stop-loss. Though the secondary stop-loss level is often chosen for some markets such as FX and some equities in order to account for seldom unexpected resistance breaks. The greater target level is the top priority, and where majority of the shares are sold, though some may choose to close part of the position at the first target level or set it to be the stop-loss once price exceeds it. Entries should be laddered in around the levels closest of the yellow line.
This trading strategy can be applied to any market and time frame, and positions most often garner the greatest risk-to-reward ratio with the highest success rate. What more can you ask for? I will only be posting my unique trading strategy until EOY. I work solely with price action to identify pennants and apply unique trend-based fibonacci retracement levels for SL and TP levels. Reach out to me if you have any questions.