COST trade ideas
COST - Can we use it as an indicator? Costco..... As a retailor it's hard to argue. They have a good thing going!
If we can use this as an indicator..... the health of the consumer economy going forward looks grim.
The longer term pattern displayed on the chart is clearly a topping pattern. How it plays out is of course, what we're interested in .
This is how I see it.
Symmetrical TriangleThere is also an M structure that touched the .786.
This was also at the support line of the triangle.
Peak 2 is higher than peak 1.
No recommendation.
COST D1 - nice volume"You can never make the same mistake twice. The second time you make it, it’s no longer a mistake, it’s throwing money away."
COST - Who doesn't love costco?Costco is probably one of my favorite places to shop and I think the stock price over the last 14 years has proven that to be the case for a lot of people.
The main issue I have with buying this stock is valuation and growth of the company. I don't see how they will be able to grow fast enough to support a 35+ PE ratio.
Taking the fib from the 08 lows to the 2022 highs, we get targets around 395, 327, and 258 for the 38.2, 50.0, and 61.8 retracement levels. If you think about it, 258 from a valuation perspective only starts to make the stock a reasonable price at about a PE of 20 assuming 13.23 EPS.
It looks beautiful from a long term trend perspective and I think it has many more years to grow, but I wouldn't touch it unless it was 308 or less purely from a fundamental perspective. Might look to short this one this year.
This is not financial advice. Good Luck!
Costco under 300 by 2025Horrible place to invest in this stock....
Won't be a decent enough dip in my opinion until late 2024.
White - Super uptrend
Yellow line - primary uptrend
Currently - Distributing phase
The crazy thing about the decline e to come is that as long as the yellow uptrend holds , this stock is consider bullish 😆
No one is going to believe meHuge triangle breakdown and double head and shoulder breakdown on the horizon. I would like to react at the break of the grey dotted neckline for conformation. Going down the first major stop and pullback will occur at the weekly 200sma. In the long run I believe we could see this triangle hit its full target of around 265.
COST testing meaningful supportCOST testing meaningful support at the BLUE channel structure.
The overall bias remains to the downside.
A break below the BLUE structure could allow price to slip into the lower $400 handle.
Costco ... Cleanup in aisle #7 (an update)Well I obviously bailed too early on this; which should be a lesson to me
S.
#COST 2-2 reversal in monthly chartHello dear Traders,
Here is my idea for #COST
Price closed below yellow line (previous month low)
Targets marked in the chart (green lines)
Invalidation level marked with red line
Good luck!
❤️Please feel free to ask any question in comments. I will try to answer all! Thank you.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
COSTCO Bye Bye!COST under 460=420.
Short it if we break and retest that level.
Trading at a 35 P/E, it needs to come down.
$COST Costco 2-2 Reversal Month$COST took the 2-2 reversal Month and is headed to the target 1 of $449.03
$COST also has triggered the Inside Quarter down with magnitude to $406.91 but the Q ends 12/31
Currently $COST is FTFC down
COSTHigher lows are being formed on Costco although it seems that this one could continue to fall, not much was able to be done above 533 on it which was a major resistance.
$COST CALLS$COST has broken structure on the daily and has tapped into a OB on friday might have missed the initial entry but is still looking good for a big move up.
$COST with a Bullish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bullish outlook for $COST after a Negative over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift C with an expected accuracy of 66.67%.
COST New Trade > Naked Put
New Trade $COST
Naked Put
Strike $370
Premium $1.16 x 2 contract = $232.00
Costco’s shares have topped out Given historical data since 1987, Costco stock has performed quite well except during extreme events such as recessions and the market turmoil. Although stock kept its bullish momentum since 2009, it finally topped out at 612.27 in April 2022.
The top pattern made during 2022 poses a threat to the long-term secular trend. The rising trend that stock has enjoyed over the past 12 years is clearly faded away after making a series of failed upward moves since Dec of 2021. The top formation suggests that price may slip to a supporting area between 377 and 394 followed by a rebound toward a range between 520 and 567.
Base case scenario implies that Costco’s shares might be trading within a wide range between 377 and 567 (Average price of 472) throughout 2023. If price is unable to hold above 377, it is likely a worst-case scenario is in play. Worst case scenario points to a decline toward 290 level.
Costco (COST)..Even a bear finds something to buy on a dipThis is a follow up to my recently written note on COST.
The company reports earnings tonight after the close.
The November same-store-sales data released on 12/1/22 rattled markets when it came in below expectations and reinforced those who feared that COST's strong sales throughout '22 were driven largely by the cheaper gasoline available at COST stores. They opined that cheaper gas attracted shoppers and now that gasoline prices have come off their highs, the reduction in traffic on the gas lines would result in fewer people buying at the stores.
Reasonable concern.
Add to that the product mix of consumers, stepping back from higher-margin technology and clothing items, and instead, spending money on lower-margin necessities such as food and other staples, a fate well known to other big-box retailers such as Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT).
Collectively, enough evidence of a change in fortunes to warrant, or at least put into question, the seemingly rich P/E it's maintained all year of close to 40 +/-, well above its five year average p/e of 36, and meaningfully above most of its competitors other than WMT who has hovered in the mid 40s!
That rich valuation has been justified by lovers of the stock since COST has maintained an exalted status of being among the few seemingly 'recession proof' stocks out there. In hard times, people will continue to look for 'value' especially in non-discretionary purchases that must be made.
The recent selloff ahead of tonight's earnings appears to be pricing in the nasty November sales miss plus anticipated more of the same.
While my previous posts have highlighted my overall bearishness on the equity markets, COST is among the few names that I've been buying on dips, today's included. I think the value proposition is exactly that: value! Heading into what I believe will be increasingly difficult times for more and more Americans, all levels of income and wealth (well, almost all) are likely to step down a notch in terms of how much they spend, on what it is that they spend, and where they actually spend. COST ought to be a beneficiary of more shoppers as times get tougher.
On their supply side too, there's reason to like COST. Being the behemoth that they are, their ability (and willingness) to pressure suppliers to keep prices down and to make them absorb more of the margin squeeze ignited by inflation is quite strong.
Finally, on word on the chart. COST Is testing the lower bound of a flag pattern driven my momentum (MACD) that has rolled over hard, enough to put RSI close to oversold. The degree to which the lower bound holds as support...or not...will determine the pace of my interest in further accumulation.
We'll know more tonight after the bell.
But even on a disappointment and a subsequent fall in the stock price, unless there's some drastic change in the overall story, I believe COST is well positioned to withstand the upcoming likely economic rout better than most.
Again, this is NOT advice!! It is merely food for thought and discussion.
Comments welcome.
COSTCO - BEARISH SCENARIOCostco is set to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings Thursday after the market close.
The company experienced cooling sales in November as shoppers spend more cautiously amid news of increasing layoffs and stubbornly high inflation.
Also, In the near-term future, Costco may face margin pressure from elevated supply chain costs (retailers have been receiving inventory earlier than expected), greater promotional activity, and higher wages.
The short-term expectations are for a breakout of the triangle and a target of $ 450.
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COST - Short IdeaDiamond Reversal
Head & Shoulders Reversal
3 Falling Peaks
Below an Iceline
Wedge-Ception ( 4HR Rising Wedge , Lots of White Space, Less Weight -> 15Min Rising Wedge )
Costco... Cleanup in Aisle #7 ?
Here is a Costco trade (short or position flatten), I am looking at.
We have an intersection of 2 harmonic sell patterns. (A Gartley and a Shark)
(Note: I would feel more certain/comfortable of these patterns, if point X originated off the August 2022 high.)
I have marked my most probable reversal area ($531-$534) and a stop above this level.
As always I want some momentum behind my trades, so my entry is around the $522 area.
Additionally I want my momentum indicator (bottom panel) to firmly roll over.
So 2 conditions must be met.
2 Targets are marked.
This is a 4 hour chart.
So I am just watching now for an opportunity which Mr. Market may or may not give me.
Not investment advice. Do Your own Due Diligence.
I will update as needed. Earnings are early December.
Good Luck
S.
