10/30/24 - $crox - Tough call in this tape, patient10/30/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:CROX
Tough call in this tape, patient
- stonk off 20% post telling us croc's is ripping and heydude is RIPping. nah. jk. but one brand up good, one brand not good.
- have been following/ trading this one for many years so i'm very familiar about 'dude and the massive momentum they effed back then
- still throw off probably $800 mm fcf on a EV that's 8-9 bn and that's a great yield. the proforma stock price w/ the debt (even after the recent drawdown) is probably ~$140 (roughly 1/4 of capital stack is debt so gross up the stock at low $110s to this) and you're at equivalent PE of 10x (round numbers here)
- i think the mkt is NOT in the appetite for ANY thing that's even signaling a quarter of meh. even going across categories. mkt is only sending the companies that beat/ raise and have great growth (e.g. >10% minimally, ideally >15% and really rewarding the 20-30% growers, if you're doing 35%... and profitable... you can bet the stock is hitting ATH's)
- so crox is not in that position at the moment
- the stonk px is well supported/ defended. the main brand is healthy AF (Though i worry it might be nearing exhaustion when i talk to the younger folks around me when oppty presents itself)
SO
do i want to step in here? i tried to buy $112 y day and just shed half that exposure pre mkt at $111. do think NASDAQ:GOOG last night, and $meta/ NASDAQ:MSFT tonight and which are obviously unrelated tend to keep everything bid. then again, the AMEX:IWM is weak on it's NASDAQ:QQQ pair and stocks sub $10 bn that are "missing" (quotes in crox's terms) just aren't seeing that bid. so i'm keeping half the exposure to eek out a small gain b/c i think it's small enough i can dump it if we get rumped again for a multi-day.
it will take time for crox stock to find it's footing and probably it's a 2025 event given how close are to year end. stock is up, probably a candidate for institutions to take a little off (still) up on the year and just reposition/ engage with it come next year.
my "would buy again" target is probably in the 80s. i'll set an alarm for 85.55 on trading view and engage there. if it doesn't/ no sweat and i wish you guys the best. it's not a must own for me given the above logic.
hope it helps as always. sorry for being MIA last week - big biz trip and some exciting things ahead. but i'm locked in for the rest of the week/s ahead so DM me, comment here if you think differently.
if u made it this far i appreciate you :)
V
