CRWD trade ideas
Main Focus List REview 8-5-24Going over our Main Focus list. incredibly volatile session. markets are moving very fast. no reason to do anything super risky. manage risk and take shots.
Largest IT Outage in History Presents.. Last Seven Days have been record breaking and not in a good way, historical political events met by historical "outages", watching the weekly chart on here, if we lose this level I'm looking at the next two below, I've condensed the chart to the daily to follow more closely,
I still think there is more to come with this, let price lead the way.
CRWD Down 47% from HighsNASDAQ:CRWD now down 47% from all time highs. This is a great valuable lesson in showing how one of the greatest stocks in the market can quickly decline when a major catalyst hits. The scale of this news/negative sentiment is global and I do expect lower prices to come. If we zoom out, I'm thinking this thing can revisit $100 price area. If not, it'll be an unpopular stock for some time until the negative sentiment dies out.
In terms of trading, I think this one is getting oversold (and can still sell down more with all the negative news) which means dip buyers might try to come in causing this stock to bounce.
This is the easiest short you can possibly imagine.I am not even going to spend a lot of time on the charts. The fundamentals for this company are abysmal.
Even after the recent declines it still has a PE TTM of 450. That is nearly 10-15x the average PE of any tech giant.
They earn nearly 1.2b a year thus far in cash flow but choose to shell out over half of it in stock based compensation, while diluting shares 4-5%. You can't do both. You can't dilute shares claiming you are doing so to pay staff, while in turn have your executives sell 205 million dollars of shares in eight months (with about 50% of that being the CEO and the director of security). If they truly believed in the growth prospects of this company, they would in turn be buying back shares, not selling them.
If you want to get technical, this stock never had a long period of consolidation from ~80-100/share. It pretty much ran up from 30-60 level and never came back down when it caught the 2020 hype.
If we want to be generous and give this "security" company a bottom to go long, it's 100/share. And that is just because it is the .236 fibonacci level, and it would be hard to say it could go lower than 75% from the highs.
Positions:
November 2024 180 p, 10 contracts @ 3.2/piece (currently up 80%)
September 2024 150p, 5 contracts @ 0.6/piece (currently down 5%)
CROWSTRIKE may hit $280 following Elon's tweetThe global outage yesterday and the tweet from Elon Musk may drive this asset to $280 or even beyond.
There may be an opening flash on Monday morning at the open of the market.
bottom fishing $CRWD with 300c exp Jan 2025analyst Hamza Fodderwala believes that CRWD will be able to “limit long-term reputational damage from the outage given the company’s swift response (>97% of impacted Windows sensors back online as of 7/25) and partner checks indicating limited churn risk so far.” However, the analyst removed CRWD from its “Top Pick” list due to the stock’s decline of more than 30% over the past month. Fodderwala believes that CRWD is nearing a bottom and views the recent events as a potential headwind.
Furthermore, the analyst pointed out that the company is likely to lose around 20% of new bookings over the second half of 2024 due to the outage.
CRWD - Waiting for Bullish EngulfingAfter the crazy global outage with Crowdstrike's top product Falcon Sensor, the company has lost alot of revenue. But if you begin to look at things from a different lens, you can begin to see how much market share they truly have in their niche, which is immense.
I believe they will learn from this situation and recover from it.
So for me and my technicals, price has went back into it's buy zone and I will be looking t investing capital once we receive a bullish engulfing candle pattern.
Price is currently 41% below is recent high.
PAYTIENCE is needed here
CRWD is a BUY+++ 17 RSI wowzersCRWD definitely went much lower than we thought, but it's a buy here for a boncey bounce!! Way oversold!!
Ouch, CrowdstrikeIn Crowdstrike, the damage is done: The market reaction to the technical glitch has already been harsh, but in the long term the company could be in serious trouble. In the age of memes, Crowdstrike has become synonymous with the vulnerability of the digitalized society in less than 24 hours. The loss of trust is likely to have a lasting impact on the company's results.
For this reason, we are bearish on Crowdstrike in the medium to long term. The stop loss for this trade idea is very wide. Followers can also see the idea as a warning to invest in Crowdstrike, while at the same time it gives an indication of the price at which an investment may be worthwhile again.
CRWD - Filling the gapI'm looking closely at CrowdStrike today and going forward. We have anchored VWAPS, Longer term support lines as well as what was looking like an RSI inversion before the big drop after the news of the Delta lawsuit. We also took out 50% of the FVG (a common reversal play) from last year. The CEO of Delta was on CNBC this morning. He did not say he was removing CrowdStrike, further he said regarding the lawsuit "We're not looking to put them out of business" and I'm paraphrasing a little here "That we want them to make it up to us however they see fit." - So - I think the extreme reaction to the lawsuit was overblown. While every lawsuit that gets news may cause a drop Delta was the big one related to how they were affected. We were starting to follow technicals last week very good until the Delta announcement and I think we will again. The technicals are lining up. We may see a bounce here watch close.
CRWD - Nibble on some Call Options?Looking to take a flyer on some Call options as were nearing the 0.618% retracement level as well as being massively oversold.
LONG ON CRWDJust picked up a starter position at $226.95/share. I believe most of the bad PR is priced in at this point. We could see $210, in which I will add to my position.
7/30/24 - $crwd - buying low $230s, 1% only7/30/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:CRWD
buying low $230s, 1% only
- no doubt this is still "expensive"
- *everyone* is going to try to sue them, lol (that's what's driving this headline)
- the unwind today is more a function (i'd guess) of the compounding nature of QQQ's risk off + deleveraging vs. the headline itself
- STILL EXPENSIVE. the actual EPS? that's the issue - mkt can't look thru. It's probably still > 50x PE
- the floor on this? probably sub $200. But that's 15% lower. Am i willing to neck out here w/ 15% downside on an insider-owned insider-driven-event (cough cough, don't expect me to say more)? yes.
- am i keeping my powder dry and would prefer to own semis over this expensive software w/ an overlook issue? yes
But i've had this on my watchlist for some time. I'm legging in. It's non obvious. 6/10 conviction for me. playing a mean reversion to some degree as well - so will need to be nimble.
if u don't want to over complicate your life. just ignore this and set a reminder for crossing $210 if/when we go there (no promises in markets). there r plenty of oppties every day.
V
CrowdStrike Faces Crisis: A Major Outage and Its AftermathCrowdStrike Holdings Inc., ( NASDAQ:CRWD ) a giant in the cybersecurity industry, recently faced one of the most significant technological crises in history. The incident, which caused substantial financial losses for its customers, has raised important questions about liability, resilience, and the future of cybersecurity.
The Incident: A Global Technology Meltdown
On the morning of July 19, 2024, a software update issued by CrowdStrike for Microsoft Windows systems triggered a massive global outage. The fallout was immediate and severe, impacting healthcare providers, banks, airlines, TV stations, and hotels. Over 8.5 million PCs and devices running Windows were affected, leading to widespread business interruptions, operational delays, and significant financial losses.
Financial Impact: Billions in Losses
Parametrix, an analytics and insurance provider, estimated the financial impact of the outage at $5.4 billion for Fortune 500 companies alone. Despite this staggering figure, CrowdStrike ( NASDAQ:CRWD ) itself is largely shielded from direct financial repercussions due to the software industry’s licensing structures, which limit developer liability, and the comprehensive insurance policies held by CrowdStrike and its clients. Nevertheless, the cybersecurity insurance policies of these Fortune 500 customers will likely cover only 10% to 20% of the losses, translating to insured losses between $540 million and $1.08 billion.
Response and Recovery
CrowdStrike's Chief Executive, George Kurtz, took to LinkedIn to reassure stakeholders, announcing that over 97% of Windows sensors were back online. However, the recovery came at a cost to customers, who suffered significant losses due to downtime and business disruptions. In his public statement, Kurtz emphasized the company’s commitment to its customers and promised a detailed update in the forthcoming earnings call.
Market Reaction and Analysis
Following incident, CrowdStrike's shares dropped by about 25%, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $22 billion. Analysts have adjusted their price targets to account for the potential long-term effects. Despite this setback, CrowdStrike's strong position in the cybersecurity industry and its crucial role in preventing cyberattacks indicate a complex future. While the company's software is difficult to replace, the incident may impede new customer acquisition. The stock closed at $254.15 previously, with a day's range of $251.26 to $260.54, and a 24-hour volume of 9,519,211 shares. The next Crowdstrike ( NASDAQ:CRWD ) Earnings Date is slated for Aug 28, 2024.
Industry Perspectives
Tracy Woo, a cloud computing analyst at Forrester Research, highlighted CrowdStrike’s critical role in cybersecurity. “CrowdStrike is probably one of the biggest, most dominant software companies out there in the cybersecurity field,” Woo noted. While she does not foresee a mass exodus of customers, she acknowledged that renewal rates could drop, depending on how deeply integrated CrowdStrike's solutions are within their clients' systems.
Legal and Insurance Implications
Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC has encouraged investors to seek compensation for alleged wrongdoings, as the potential for litigation looms. Jonathan Hatzor, CEO of Parametrix, explained that it is impossible for companies like CrowdStrike to shoulder unlimited financial liabilities, hence the reliance on insurance to diversify and mitigate such risks.
The Road Ahead
CrowdStrike's resilience will be tested in the coming months as it navigates the fallout from this incident. The company's ability to retain customer trust, mitigate legal repercussions, and maintain its leadership in cybersecurity will be critical. Upcoming developments, including the anticipated updates in their earnings call and potential new measures to prevent such incidents in the future, will be closely watched by stakeholders.
While the recent outage has undeniably impacted CrowdStrike and its customers, the company's position in the cybersecurity landscape offers a foundation for recovery and continued dominance. As the market adjusts to these developments, CrowdStrike's commitment to its customers and its proactive measures will be pivotal in restoring confidence and driving future growth.
For more in-depth analyses and updates on CrowdStrike and other major players in the tech industry, follow @DexWireNews.
CrowdStrike Holdings, CRWD - Nothing is Holding This BackThis is one opportunity that I will take full advantage of as the chart is providing plenty of support and potential for a significant swing back up to retest the recent highs that CRWD tested a dozen times already.
In this first chart you can clearly see the high channel that was the ceiling for CRWD and initially Investors still found fair market value at this point still trading several million shares per day before beginning to breakdown roughly 6% and then on July 18th with a glitch in a software update that caused some short lived worldwide challenges with several large companies the stock was punished fairly harsh pushing it down another 28% for a total loss of 34% or approx. $136. Please note the 2 Gaps Down on the chart as well as the Money Flow Index being in an Oversold Position as well as the PPO, Price Point Oscillator sitting near minus 12 and the ADX, Advance Decline Oscillator being above 38... at these values on a Daily Chart I always have a high degree of certainty that the bottom is in and a reversal will be made. I am also showing the expected advances to be made for each Gap Fill as well as a potential retest of the top, so those values for potential gains are 14.65% + 16.44% + 13.83%.
This next daily chart shows the Long Term Channel Support dating back to December of last year with the current price point sitting just above the midpoint of that channel having spiked down lower to it this past Thursday and Friday.
Finally this last chart is a Weekly Chart showing the Fibonacci Retracement off the High from the beginning of it's run at the start of 2023 and at the moment is sitting just above the 50% support or $245.29, and though the chart on the weekly does still look week as if it might drop to the .618 FIB at $209.17, imho I believe the worst case scenario is for a spike lower to the bottom of the Long term Support Channel which Coincides with the 100 day EMA, Exponential Moving Average at $239.
Overall CRWD has performing very well in it past 3 Quarterly Financials with both their Earnings steadily improving along with their Revenues and so with their next quarterly earnings to be announced on Tuesday August 24th I am Confident that there is much more upside to be seen than any additional further downside.
CRWD SHOULD BE ADDED 26th july 2024CRWD should be added as per the entry on tbe chart with proper momey management and SL levels.
Crowdstrike May Signal Stock Market Top But Crypto Trump Pump!Traders,
I tried very hard to upload a video to the TV platform today but was unsuccessful. It may be that TV is also affected in some ways by the Crowdstrike update, I don't know? Needless to say, my video will not be shown here and due to house rules I am unable to say where you might find it or if it is even available. So, in keeping with those rules, I will only give the written preview of what the video will be when/if I can eventually upload to Tradingview. Sorry for the inconvenience. Here is my prelude to the video that I made for this post.
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To help us understand the broad, over-arching view and where our economy may be headed, both in the U.S. and abroad, we must sometimes tackle some subject matter that appears to be political on the surface and makes some people rather uncomfortable. But if we are going to be accurate traders, then we also need to be honest. Being honest involves setting aside our political dogma and preferences and viewing current events with as little bias as possible. Removing bias involves removing emotion. Let's attempt to do that today as I dive in with a closer inspection of the Crowdstrike-caused Microsoft BSoD outage and discuss Trump's recent assassination attempt. We are going to cover how each of these recent events has impacted the stock market and our crypto space. If this subject matter makes you uncomfortable, you may want to skip this video. I'm cutting straight to the chase here and I'll explain why it matters. You see, I learned the hard way a long time ago that if you want to make money in this market then you have to understand what the world rulers are up to and what their end game might be. It's often uncomfortable to explore motives here because they appear to be so uncompassionate, calloused, and uncaring, but we must put them on the table as options at least if we are going to determine market direction and become the best traders that we can be. Following the money and potential motives of the deep state(s) can help us win. This is what we'll do a bit of in today's video. Enjoy.
$CRWD - Why technicals feel counterintuitiveCrowdstrike downs the internet, in partnership with MSFT, and both are also at a great buy point after being over bought. They tanked, and the recovery is already underway.
Absolutely perfect fib support.
Historical support at this level from big drops. Crazy volatile for a massive company.
Regression channel is broken, but the times that it has happened, it flies right back into the regression channel.
These are reversal grabs, risky, but combined with MSFT, CRWD is too big to fail.
Fundamentally, both are set to rise again, and this was a great entry poitn
Sorry to everyone who missed their flights
not trade advice
CRWD - Crowdstrike, this looks similar. Crowdstrike has been demolished in recent session on the back of poor Cybersecurity news / IT OUTAGES.
This type of sell usually gets a dead cat bounce like we saw in December of 2021.
However this decline usually proceeds more selling.
Notice how price respected each Fib level, but it did challenge and pierce each Fib level, shaking out buyers and sellers.
Im eyeing a quick bounce soon but a move lower move we complete that bounce.
Downtrend support has been metCrowdstrike has met support around the $260 area. Broadening wedge is in place. Reversal this week.
CRWD - large dump was foretold Monday 8th or July (as indicated on the chart), there was nothing that Crowdstrike as a company could do wrong. The stock had rallied to new all time highs in the market. Little did anyone know that 11 days later they would cause the largest IT outage ever and their share price was about to get crushed. Or did they?
Im arguing here it was all the charts on 8th July due to hidden BEARISH DIVERGENCES. A whole 11 days before the event.
Let me explain. Crowdstrike had already had Bearish divergences on the RSI. This is evidenced by the stock price putting in higher highs and higher lows, whilst the RSI (bottom section) was putting in lower highs and lower lows. There harsh rejection at the white line 11 days before it’s black swan event. That was the exact it time to get out because the price was overdue a correction having gone on a long parabolic run.
So what to do now? Just look at how oversold were are on the RSI. Can a black swan event an opportunity? I’d certainly say so with this company, such is their importance, but they have caused a complete shift in the trend of its stock performance and thus we need to see a sign of strength now in the charts.
If you’re planning to trade it, play it safe, wait for a change in market structure before going long. The trend remains down for now but this is too late to short in my opinion. Im expecting a counter trend rally as the dust settler.
Keep an eye on this one, it’s volatility makes it a good instrument to trade.
Not financial advice, just telling you what I’m looking at for a potential trade. I certainly don’t recommend being a hero trying to catch a falling knife either. I’m waiting for key levels to be hit and reactions to suggest that the market structure has changed. . I’m always keeping a stop loss, entry and exit plans. Defining my risk, above all preserving my capital.
If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail.
Going back to 300This has been the most freakish incident in 5 sessions. It has oversold the indicators, and we're ready to buy. It may not take a day or two, but we are steadying the ship to start crashing waves and come out with a few squeezes.
