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CVNA trade ideas

6/9/25 - $cvna - Shorting it, now.6/9/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:CVNA Shorting it, now. - was waiting for the insiders to dump their shares like rats on a rotting boat. and here we are. all over again. - in theory, if you had Company A (listed) and Company B (private) and you controlled both... and Company B bought Company A subprime loans and the loss (of marking them to zero) was less than the appreciation you'd receive in the form of Company A stock (such that you could sell it)... what would that be called? - remember friends, some turds float. - but eventually all turds get flushed. - trade turds with caution. - and remember to wash your hands. - size appropriately. - good luck to those believing this thing has "turned around" for the second time. fafo :) V
NYSE:CVNAShort
by VROCKSTAR
1
CVNA Swing Trade Plan – Bearish Breakdown (June 13, 2025)🛑 CVNA Swing Trade Plan – Bearish Breakdown (June 13, 2025) 📉 Setup Summary: CVNA is flashing strong bearish momentum across 15-minute and daily charts, confirmed by multiple AI models. Although slightly oversold in the short term, the overall directional thesis remains intact: downside toward $293–$295 seems likely in the coming sessions. 🔍 Multi-Model Technical Consensus Trend: Bearish across 15-min and daily; weakening on weekly Momentum: MACD bearish, RSI near oversold but no bullish divergence Volume: Spike on red candles confirms seller strength Support/Resistance Zones:  • Resistance: $310–$320  • Support: $292–$295 Max Pain: $320 (may act as a temporary gravitational pull on bounce) 🧠 AI Model Signals ✅ Grok/xAI: $310 PUT — bearish, aligns with max pain retrace ✅ Llama/Meta: $300 PUT — short-term continuation ✅ Gemini/Google: $280 PUT — deep OTM swing toward structural support ✅ DeepSeek: $305 PUT — best balance between liquidity, risk/reward, and chart structure 🧩 Conclusion: Slight preference for the $305 PUT for its technical alignment and capital efficiency. 📈 Trade Recommendation 🔻 Strategy: Buy Naked PUT Ticker: CVNA Strike: $305 Expiry: 2025-06-27 Entry: At market open Target Entry Price: $10.50 Profit Target: $15.75 (+50%) Stop-Loss: $7.35 (–30%) Confidence: 75% ⚠️ Risk Considerations Short-Term Bounce Risk: Extremely oversold 15m RSI might trigger intraday upticks Macro Reversal: Broader market rally or surprise CVNA news could invalidate the bearish thesis Premium Sensitivity: CVNA is volatile; strict stop-loss adherence is key Max Pain Risk: Reversion to $320 could neutralize gains quickly 💬 Swing traders — what’s your play here? Do you ride the momentum lower, or is this oversold enough to fade? Drop your take 👇 and follow for daily AI-backed trade setups.
NYSE:CVNAShort
by quantsignals
Carvana Leading Auto Retail – Outpacing LAD & AN-Financial Performance & Momentum: Carvana reported a record-breaking adjusted EBITDA of $488M in Q1 2025, up $253M YoY, with an EBITDA margin of 11.5% (+3.8pp YoY). The company's strong operational efficiency positions it as a leader in the auto retail industry, nearly doubling the margins of competitors like Lithia Motors (LAD) and AutoNation (AN). - Competitive Positioning & Growth Outlook: Carvana’s EBITDA quality is superior due to lower non-cash expenses, enhancing long-term sustainability. The company expects sequential EBITDA growth in Q2 and targets 13.5% EBITDA margins within 5-10 years. -Peer Comparison: - Lithia Motors (LAD): EBITDA margin at 4.4% (up from 4% YoY), facing tariff-related headwinds that could impact pricing and demand. - AutoNation (AN): SG&A as a percentage of gross profit rose to 67.5% in Q1, expected to stay between 66-67% in FY 2025, pressuring margins further. -Options Flow & Institutional Activity - Key Levels: $350/$370 Recent institutional flow activity indicates strong positioning around $350/$370 strikes, potentially signaling a vertical spread in play rather than outright selling: 1️⃣ Momentum Confirmation: - CVNA has strong upside momentum following its Q1 results, reinforcing a bullish outlook for near-term price action. - Institutional traders may be accumulating bullish vertical spreads rather than unwinding positions. Vertical Spread Setup ($350/$370 Strikes) - Long Call ($350 Strike) → Signals expectations for further upside. - Short Call ($370 Strike) → Caps max profit while reducing cost. - Breakeven Price: $359 → CVNA must close above $359 for profitability. Profit & Risk Zones - Above $370: Maximum profit achieved. - Between $359-$370: Partial profit zone (spread remains in play). - Below $359: Spread loses value, making recovery dependent on extended upside momentum.
NYSE:CVNALong
by Wiiso
Carvana: The Megaphone Whispers Before It ShoutsCarvana (CVNA) has carved a textbook megaphone formation. Expansion. Volatility. The upper rim is now experiencing reverberation. From <$20 to over $300 in under 12 months—this isn’t price discovery; it’s narrative acceleration. But megaphones don't whisper forever. They break. And when they do, it’s rarely gentle. Now the macro begins to lean against the parabola: 1) Delinquencies on auto loans in the subprime category are increasing. 2) Tariffs on foreign-produced EVs and parts may squeeze supply chains and make people drive their cars longer before switching. Having a paid-off car is the best car you can have. 3) Rates on car loans remain elevated, which is putting a strain on household finances rather than affecting the price-to-earnings (PE) multiple. Tell your wife you just got a brand new car, but you can't afford to buy steak for the month or dine out at Chili's. CVNA is effectively competing with Chili's in that sense. 4) Used car margins are narrowing. The arbitrage window that fed Carvana’s verticality is closing. Yes, they scaled fast. And yes, they successfully digitized an industry that was previously considered clunky. But CVNA’s business model is still wed to financing velocity. When credit tightens, so does the upside. May 30 puts offer asymmetric optionality. The setup is clear: Froth meets friction. Parabola meets pressure. The story is as old as the markets themselves. Let others chase euphoria. We’ll listen to the widening echo.
NYSE:CVNAShort
by gumoca
8
$CVNA - 260CallHi all, My ai pinged me suggesting a 260 Call expiring around the 6'th of June on CVNA. This model's performance is not terrible, but i;m not comfortable listening to my own AI which is suggesting to buy a call literally just before earnings. 2.6 Sharpe isn't bad but it's no 3.6 meaning it's not a guaranteed win. imgur.com I am more keen on seeing whether the AI right or wrong and letting you guys know about the trade. Now my AI also suggests that other CAR sector related stocks may experience moves as well, maybe more than CVNA itself. Unfortunately i do not know which ones those are. I just know the CAR sector good.
NYSE:CVNALong
by leenixusu
5
Waiting for CVNA to choose a direction.Last week I was all in the news and while I do think it's important to stay alert in an environment where our reigning president enjoys dropping posts intraday, I do still support staying out of the general news. It will not only drive you crazy, but it will cloud your judgement. Just watch price action and volume, stay calm, and adjust you risk as needed. 🟢 Bullish Scenario If CVNA continues up, it will face resistance around 219. But if it breaks above this level (which includes the February 2024 uptrend line, May 2021 pivot, and the daily 50SMA), it will not have a lot of overhead. This would open a door toward around 250 and 260. In the short-term, if it can hold above it's EMAs, we may still be bullish. 🔴 Bearish Scenario Failure to break through 219, or lose the 10 and 20 EMAs, could set up another leg lower. A break back below the daily 200SMA would clear the path back to 157. At the time of publishing this, CVNA tested 219, and pulled back...now we wait to see if it wants to call a direction today. ⚪️ Neutral / Chop Scenario If price continues to hover between 194 and 219, we may just be seeing a consolidation phase within a broader downtrend. That would suggest neither bulls nor bears have full control, and we could expect choppy, range-bound behavior this week. A break outside of this range with volume would help clarify the next direction.
NYSE:CVNA
by emanuelaelias
Carvana - More Fish To Come? You Bet!After the first post about CVNA, I bailed out on a small loss (see linked Chart). But then Immediately loaded Puts and had a good "Steak & Lobster" time §8-) Price behaves like textbook when we consult the Medianlines trading framework and rule set. First price reached the red Centerline, followed by the expected pullback to the white Lower-Medianline-Parallel. If the "Fish" can't manage to jump back into the white Fork, then I expect much more downside to come. If this is the case, we have two good looking PTG's at PTG1 & PTG2. To me, this Scam Company (see my first post) is done. It's just a matter of time. For the longer time frame, I will check out ITM LEAP-Puts and let them profit from the ride to the south. And for short term trades, I just wait for pullbacks as it did now, and take it short to finance some of my LEAPs, Dinner and Weekend Holidays. Isn't it nice, how we can find good even in bad? §8-) May the Fish be with us!
NYSE:CVNAShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
1
Carvana's Fundamentals And Chart Screeming For A ShortFrom a very well known Short-Seller in the markets I read a concerning letter this morning: "Carvana Trades At An 845% Higher Sales Multiple Than Online Car Peers Like CarMax and AutoNation, And A 754% Premium On A Forward Earnings Basis." ...ummmhh... §8-() The Chart does look very scary too. This exponential move can't sustain very long. As we see, the first bounce already alerts me to prepare for a big short. If this plays out as projected, we see a heavy dump in the coming weeks and months.
NYSE:CVNAShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
CVNA Short: Catalysts Favor a Move to the DownsideCVNA is a used car marketplace, which has enjoyed nearly a 7000% rally from lows. The company has turned around and has been a remarkable story, however given the recent earnings announcement selloff, a Gann based analysis favors a bearish trend change at least for now. Although the earnings report beat expectations, this could mark a local top for Carvana , as investors may be speculating that this is the best that Carvana can do revenue wise for now and that increasing growth rates may be hard to sustain. As we can see here, the price has taken out the key $268.00 price support level aka, it's original 52 week high from Nov 25th. The price as of now is currently $256. The current Gann support levels are as follows: $250 psychological support level and the $256 Trendline Support level. Although we could see a bounce from the trend line and support level, I prefer an extended retracement to the $230 levels for 3 reasons: 1. Today is current day 47 of the rally from the 52 week lows of Jan 3rd . According to typical rally/reaction periods, the trend be shifting (the 45 day rally point is indicated by a red vertical line). So far this is validated by the 52 week daily close high of Feb 18th . Unless we get a move 3 points above this $291 high, we should not be worried about a possible 60-65 day rally. If a 60-65 day rally is in fact the case, this would mark a top for CVNA at Mar 5th and Mar 10th in that case. (Marked by our red vertical lines) 2. We have a break below the old 52 week high support level of $268 3. We have a lack of strong support until the Gann 50% midpoint between the 52 week highs of Feb 19th and Jan 3rd . This midpoint noted by the horizontal blue line is around $234 STOP LOSS: $271 Set a stop loss around 3 points above the Support/Resistance level of $268 that we mentioned.
NYSE:CVNAShort
by dodgeroebuck