DIA - support channels!DIA has given up 78% of the move from the December 26, 2018 low to the top two weeks ago. The move has been swift and panicky despite the markets acting orderly. Downside volume v upside volume is at extreme levels along with breadth. Stocks hitting new 52 week lows are also at extremes. There is arguably a final channel that coincides with the downside impulse leg FIB level that I have marked and the 2015-2016 lows at around 227. It would make some sense that the market might turn there from a very very oversold condition. That would be if things were sensical. We are flying blind but the types of moves we are having and the volume of trading may soon lead to a tradeable bottom. The movements are extreme and I would expect that any snapback may look very similar. The Biden bounce was a trap and the selling over the last 3 days has been punishing. Stay alert and build good watch lists. When it turns it will be swift and catch a lot of people leaning the wrong way.
DIA trade ideas
DIA = 50% retraceMarket up 1293 on Monday, down 783 yesterday, and up 1173 today. Net positive 1700 points or so for the week after being down 5000 points the prior week or so. Looks like it can carry a little further but I expect it to hit channel resistance and get turned away. Biden was certainly a positive today but not sure what this means in context of virus. Market has a way of shaking weak hands out but not sure there will be enough strong hands to hold going forward. Still looking for a retest of the lows.
DJIA: WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?THIS LATEST DIP IS NO WAY NEAR THE CORRECTION THAT IS TRULLY NEEDED. DDM'S HAVE ABSORPED LATEST PUBLIC SELLING BUT NOT MUCH ROOM ON THE UPSIDE? ON THE POSITIVE, THERE ARE MANY BLUE CHIP STOCKS THAT ARE UNDERVALUED BASED ON DIVIDEND YIELD THEORY. UNFORTUNATELY, THESE STOCKS ARE LANGUISHING BECAUSE OF PUBLIC FEAR AND THE EXTREME LEVELS OF THE DJIA WHICH HAS BUT A DAMPER ON BOTH PUBLIC AND INSTITUTIONAL SENTIMENT.
DIA could potentially pulls back further towards 266 supportDIA (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Index ETF) peaked at 293.61 on 1/21/2020. Despite the current pullback, the ETF remains overbought. Further downside is expected. The 266 area near the prior H&S breakout becomes near-term support and target.
Happy Trading!
$DIA Bulls Taking Controlwhen in the world was everyone in the public capable of identifying a recession before it happens. sentiment is so bad right now which makes me think we will just rip through ATH again. Remember, don't be so closed minded to not see whats happening in the big picture, its a 10 yr bull trend since 2009 and we are only like 3-4% below all time highs. Stop trying to call the top and follow the trend cuz in the end the trend is your friend.
Anything above 247 is still a Higher low so trend is still in tact
Volume Proceeds PriceVolume is the only indicator can provide hint for price future action. It is important to watch how volume behaves compare to breakdown and rebound in order to determine the strength of rebound. In this case marked, breakdown showed extreme high volume (use 50 DMA on volume) but rebound came very light weight. Thus, it is reasonable to assume rebound is more likely to fail and downtrend may resume when rebound is over.
Divergence Confirm Dow Jones ETF MoveThe negative divergence depicted by the MACD on the chart has given us an early warning of the impending downward move. Prices keep moving up but MACD shows declining move. Yesterday, Dow Jones ETF (DIA) confirmed the signal with the gap down move. Likely downward target would be around the 270 support area and the 250 area. A break below the latter support level, might give way towards 200 level
DIA ready to correctThis technical analysis was conducted using the Swing•Genie Cycles swing trading indicator on a 2-day chart. It typically takes between 1 and 10 days from the time the Swing•Genie Cycles indicator prints a dot on the chart for the trend to demonstrably change. A green dot is a bullish signal, a red dot is a bearish signal. Swing trades using this system typically last 2 to 6 weeks.
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