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Enphase Energy, IncEnphase Energy, IncEnphase Energy, Inc

Enphase Energy, Inc

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ENPH trade ideas

$ENPH Bullish Earnings PlayI trade almost entirely using options, shares are typically only there to hedge Greeks or if a stock has a terrific opportunity to sell covered calls. When you are trading in options you need to understand that while technical analysis and fundamental analysis are still important, what is usually most important is how the options chain looks-- what is the Implied Volatility curve, the skew/smile, and etc. This is primarily why Earnings present such an incredible opportunity because people throw money all over the place betting on some kind of move, and usually over pay. So note that this play is less about Enphase Energy as the company or what support/resistance levels I see and etc, its more of a "This is a killer value" option spread. Background Enphase is a solar energy stock. Solar stocks and electric vehicle (EV) stocks as well as some others have been really beat up recently but I've been seeing a ton of reversals which lead me to believe another "trash flash" rally has just begun. Looking at $IWM or $US2000 you can see a wedge or sort of diamond top has broken through to the upside. Technical My bottom pane has my Price Action Index indicator, which shows a breakout to the bull side already underway on this stock. You can see that on the Bollinger Band as well-- it was squeezed in consolidation and now the band is expanding in size as the stock hovers above the top band. Options Analysis There are some levels of resistance above that I think this stock can go through pretty easily until it gets to that $190-$210 cloud. This is so obvious that options traders have attacked OTM calls for near-term expirations pretty aggressively. Here is a (crude) diagram of the $ENPH smile graph for this Friday’s expiration-- This smile is called a “forward skew”. Note that it is INSANELY weighted towards the bullish side. Options traders are pricing in the potential for a giant move up. Therefore, we try to exploit it . As this near-term 4/30 expiration has priced in OTM calls very expensively, the next expiry afterwards, 5/7 has about 20% lower IV At The Money, and OTM we’re looking at about 25% less IV. It looks like this: $200 Call for 4/30 has an IV midpoint of 120 $195 Call for 5/7 has an IV midpoint of 90 This spread is affectionally dubbed the “Poor Man’s Covered Call” but it is simply a Diagonal Call. It is somewhat similar to being long shares, however I want to limit my risk to the downside and not get stuck holding shares for a long time. If it does backfire by a lot then that means my long calls will go worthless If the stock doesn’t move at all from earnings, I make the decision of: rolling my short calls to my long date (5/7), buying to close the short calls after they’ve been IV Crushed and hoping for some upside to come later, or taking a small loss (say $200-400) If it goes mildly up, I make a mild profit If it hits $200 there and expires at that price, I take my maximum profit: my choice of closing the spread then, holding my long call (I would probably roll another short one against it) If ENPH does some insane move over 3 standard deviations into the moon, say $240, I still make profit but that short $200 call digs at it (I have more extrinsic/time value with my option being 1 week further to expiry than the short one does) What is really nice about this setup is you have ALL of the Greeks working with you! I am positive Delta, very positive Theta , a smidge positive Gamma, positive Vega, and even positive Rho (not that that matters much here). Past Earnings What I love about this earnings play is that of the past 12 earnings reports Enphase has had, only 2 have had a move to the downside . The other 10 have all been positive-- +1.0%, +4.2%, +8.8%, +9.5%. +9.5%, +14.0%, +18.7%, +29.3%, +30%, and +42.4%. A move up to $220 is not out of this realm of possibility. But all I am looking for is a move up that is at least 2.0% or so. And the beautiful thing is that the Average Move of the last 12 earnings comes out to +/- 16.6%, which would be about $201. Trade Entry I got my spread filled at a $1.98 debit. I put my walk limit order in and started working on this idea and got filled there. I am plenty fine with that fill but if you are patient the Bid-Ask spread is currently $1.72-$2.33 with a mid of $2.03. From my personal experience, getting filled can be a tedious process because I want the best possible price but I also hate being too cheap and watching a good trade pass me by. In the end a nickel or dime difference on the fill is not the killer, it is the trade not working. Best of luck. Let me know if you have any thoughts or ideas or are playing this as well. EARNINGS ARE TOMORROW/TUESDAY AFTER MARKET CLOSE! Please remember that this is NOT financial advise and I have no certifications or qualifications to give financial advise.
NASDAQ:ENPHLong
by chrism665
1
Bullish on ENPH(This is not financial advice) Hey guys quick energy play on Enphase here. Energy was the biggest winner of this week as I expected and ENPH is one of the biggest companies in this area. ENPH did have a nice run up this week running up over 4% gain from week open to week close but I still see good room for growth. ENPH came out of bullish triangle and is now using old resistance as new support. With the Fib Retracement we have our next price target at 176 completing our W pattern that has been forming as well. If the energy sector continues to boost it could easily push past this as well but otherwise you could just take your profits earlier. This trade will allow for at least a 8% gain and in my opinion even more. All of these things combined with the RSI the EMA's and all other things allow me to be pretty bullish on ENPH. If you agree or disagree with his idea be sure to let me know in the comments and like and follow. Thanks! - Vlaire
NASDAQ:ENPHLong
by vlaire
2
Bullish long- Possible BreakoutENPH has been getting hit relatively hard compared to the broader market, was in the oversold range for a while, and has been hovering in the $145-155 range for a little while now. ENPH's first support level is at $149.42 and then resistance at $162.28. Needs to break and hold above that first resistance but will be looking for a breakout from there. However, this will depend on overall market conditions with respect to volatility and a potential pullback as markets are nearing ATHs. - Impending MACD cross on 6 month - PT upgraded to $200 by Solar Stock Analyst: Biju Perincheril - PT1- $162.28 - PT2- $172.86 - PT3- $190.69 www.benzinga.com
NASDAQ:ENPHLong
by jacobosiason7
ENPH, TIME TO LOAD UP?Hello fellow traders and investors, here's another trade idea. ENPH and many other green energy stocks have recently pulled back to the 200SMA and the trendline that acts as a support. If ENPH makes a full recovery it offers around a 28% ROI to the previous high. Technicals: The Macd indicates that ENPH is oversold The Ema's indicate that ENPH is in a downtrend When To Buy: When EMA's crossover When the Macd indicates a reversal by crossing its EMA When To Sell: There are three options I would consider. The first one would be at its previous high which offers a 28% ROI, the second option would be to hold for the long term. Fundamentals: Enphase Energy is a global energy technology company and the world’s leading supplier of micro inverter-based solar-plus-storage systems. The Company delivers smart, easy-to-use solutions that connect solar generation, storage, and energy management on one intelligent platform. The Company revolutionized the solar industry with its microinverter technology and produces a fully integrated solar-plus-storage solution. Enphase has shipped more than 32 million microinverters, and approximately 1.4 million Enphase-based systems have been deployed in more than 130 countries. Their P/E is around 180 and their debt to equity is 0.68. They have an amazing ROI of 25% and they have a growth of 26% Q/Q. Their valuation is rich however they have amazing projected growth in the next decade. Rating: 90/100 I rate this company 90/100 since they have amazing growth coming, an amazing business compared to some of the other green energy stocks in the industry. The only reason why it was not 100/100 is that their valuation is a little bit expensive. NOTE: I will be watching this stock for entries between 140 to 150$ since it has been making higher lows and lower lows and hasn't shown signs of a reversal. I hope you enjoyed this quick analysis and many more to come. If you enjoyed leave a like, follow and comment your thoughts. Thanks.
NASDAQ:ENPHLong
by UnknownUnicorn11084119
5