F trade ideas
Ford Motor Could Be Skidding LowerFord Motor fell sharply over the summer, and now traders may think it will keep skidding lower.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the bearish gap on July 25 after earnings and revenue missed estimates. That potentially reflects concerns about its growth and profitability.
Next, F's 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “death cross” below the 200-day SMA the following month. That may suggest its longer-term trend has turned bearish.
Third is the pair of monthly highs around $11.28 in August and September. The resulting double top, below the pre-earnings lows, may suggest new resistance has developed below old support.
Next, the series of lower highs in the last three weeks has created a potential bearish descending triangle for the automaker.
Finally, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is below the 21-day EMA and prices are below the 50-day SMA. Those patterns may reflect bearishness in the short and intermediate terms.
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Ford (F): Waiting for the right moment after recent bounceAfter being stopped out at break-even with profits already taken on NYSE:F , we are now observing the chart again. We're pleased that we didn't buy any shares as the anticipated bounce did not materialize. However, Ford did bounce almost exactly at point X, which is where wave 2 should not have dropped below—it briefly wicked under before pumping back up. This is something we can respect, as we haven't been stuck below the designated level for an extended time.
From a technical perspective, the plan is clear, but Ford is highly impacted by the current political climate, as car companies are in the spotlight right now. Despite this, we are planning for a push upwards after the recent dip. Ideally, we should not revisit the $9.64 level or, even better, avoid the wave (ii) level. Multiple levels need to be flipped for us to be confident that there's enough strength for future success. We've marked the "Ideal Entry Point" with a green dot, and it should be clear what we want to see.
For now, we're standing on the sidelines, letting it develop and play out. If our scenario unfolds as anticipated, we can capitalize on it.
Plan the trade and trade the plan.
Long F (unless you think a recession is coming)Just a couple of weeks ago I called for a 20% fall in Ford that happened a LOT faster than I expected. Now, I think there is a compelling case to be made to go long.
Technically, it is right at support (circled in white) as I write this. That is a low that hasn't been eclipsed since the COVID crash. It's also VERY oversold. In fact, the last 4 times it's been this oversold (going back to 2011), 3 of the 4 times it has closed at least 18% higher within 3 months. The other time was the COVID crash and it was higher 6 months later that time.
From a more fundamental perspective, the impending rate cut(s) will make cars more affordable along with lowering mortgage rates and opening the possibility of refinancing and cost savings there (though I think it will take more than one cut to get that effect). The bad news from their last earnings report was already baked in before this recent market collapse as well. Finally, the dividend is over 6% right now. So I'm being paid a higher rate than bonds to sit and wait for the stock to come back.
Could we go into recession? Sure, but I don't think that's where we are headed and overall market action today leads me to believe the big players don't think that either. The Fed has lots of powder to fight that right now. Could F lower its dividend? Yep. But until I see that happen I'm not betting on that either.
Trump tariffs? Those actually do scare me, but I suspect that's mostly talk that appeals to his base. If Harris gets elected, I think protecting the auto industry and its workers will be a very high priortiy, so I don't see immense political risk either.
So that's my case for long F right now. I'm making this trade and will keep it updated as things happen.
F - Ford: a Buy Now After Declining 23% in a Month? Yes, yes !
Price-To-Earnings ratio (10x) is below the US market (17x)
Earnings are forecast to grow 16% per year
Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
Ford Pro, the company's commercial vehicle division, showed strength with a 15.1% operating margin, driven by high demand for Super Duty trucks and Transit vans. Plans to increase production capacity by 100,000 units by 2026 further support future growth. Additionally, Ford’s focus on software technology and services positions it well in the evolving automotive landscape. This dip presents a potential buying opportunity as Ford continues to innovate and expand.
Looking Higher Through 14.85 Against 9.63Ford should begin working higher through 14.85 against the 9.63 low following the likely completion of a flat pattern in wave (b) of {c}.
Wave c of (b) of {c} is either complete or soon to be complete and wave (c) of {c} should begin developing in an impulsive manner (five waves) higher through at least 14.85. Any downside should remain corrective against 9.63.
Ford Is Trying To Regain MomentumNYSE:F – After breaching 2020 levels can NYSE:F finally make a push higher? Seeing lots of bullish positioning at the 14 and 15 strikes. The last 5 days have made higher lows so bullish structure is trying to form but the 10 and 8.5 strike picked up a significant amount of put volume. A breakthrough the upper imbalance around 10.5 would be needed to confirm my long bias. Premiums would need to be mispriced for me to enter any longs.
Looking to pull a nice swing trade on Ford (F)On a daily TimeFrame looking at Ford (F), it's a pretty clear message that this should be a relatively straightforward Swing. I entered at $10.07 (I wanted lower but didn't have confirmation), and am looking to sell at about $1.25 which is about the $11.32 price area. This isn't trading advice in any shape or form. Just a somewhat basic and clear strategy.
Keep it in your watchlistPrice just landed on a strong support area. I'll wait for few more days to make a move. Also is a good idea to sell puts here. But I rather buy the stock in a week or two. Let's see how the market reacts.
Ford: Quality Woes and EV Struggles Send Shares PlungingFord Motor Company is currently navigating a challenging operational landscape marked by significant headwinds. The company's financial performance has been notably impacted by a confluence of factors, with quality issues and the electrification transition posing the most substantial challenges.
A surge in warranty costs, primarily related to older vehicle models, has eroded profitability. Concurrently, the Model E division, responsible for Ford's electric vehicle initiatives, has incurred substantial losses. The competitive intensity within the EV market, coupled with evolving consumer preferences, has exacerbated these challenges. While the Ford Pro segment, focused on commercial vehicles, exhibits growth potential, its current contribution is insufficient to offset the negative impact of the other divisions.
To restore financial health and regain investor confidence, Ford must implement a comprehensive strategic overhaul. This necessitates a concerted effort to enhance quality control, accelerate EV development while mitigating costs, and optimize operational efficiency across the entire organization. The company's ability to successfully navigate this complex environment will be instrumental in determining its long-term competitive position and market share.
Crucially, Ford must balance the need to address immediate challenges with a forward-looking perspective. The company's strategic direction will need to encompass both short-term cost reduction measures and long-term investments in emerging technologies and market segments.
FORD - ICE predominates EV falters LONGFord has scaled back its EV ambitions in consideration of the marketplace while TSLA drops
its price in the Eurozone and falls into less than first place in the China EV market. Ford's
F-150 truck continues to dominate GM and the others in North America.
On the 4H chart, first a price uptrend and then retrace to the 0.5 Fib level and a reverse into
a new trend up. A pair of EMAs shows an impending golden cross also suggested by
the zero lag MACD. The two RSI lines ( 60 minutes and 480 minutes fast and slow) are
rising and about to cross the 50 level.
I see this as a long entry for Ford. Targets based on major pivots in 2023 are 13 and 14.25
F: Daily and Weekly Charts Analysis.On the daily chart, the price has encountered significant resistance near the 14.83 level, which is the gap resistance seen on the weekly chart. A shooting star candlestick pattern has formed at this resistance level, indicating potential exhaustion in the upward momentum.
This is further corroborated by the price's inability to sustain its gains above this resistance, resulting in a pullback towards the 21-day EMA, which is close to the 38.2% Fibonacci's retracement. The trend is still bullish, however, if F fails to react around on of its retracements, it could reverse the sentiment.
Looking at the weekly chart, the scenario remains consistent with the daily observations. Another shooting star pattern is also visible on the weekly timeframe, reinforcing the bearish sentiment observed in the daily chart.
The gap that was previously identified has now been closed, which often acts as a magnet for price action, drawing the price back towards this level before resuming its prior trend.
The presence of the 21-week EMA adds a layer of dynamic support, suggesting that while the price might face short-term resistance, the overall trend remains upward as long as this support holds.
The confluence of resistance at 14.83, the formation of the shooting star pattern, and the closed gap on the weekly chart suggest that Ford might experience a period of consolidation or a minor pullback before any potential resumption of its upward trend.
For now, we should monitor these key levels and patterns for indications of the next move, keeping an eye on the 21-day and 21-week EMAs as critical support zones.
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Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
F is very overbought short term, but it may not matterF hasn't been this overbought since 2017. It's run up 23% in the last month and is up 13 of the last 15 trading days. A 20% drop over the next couple of months would be my most likely scenario.
Stocks can always go higher, especially with a good earnings report, which F has coming up in a week. But if they miss or disappoint in any way, I'd expect a pullback.
I would definitely NOT short this, despite my feelings about the possibility of a pullback, as shorts that make any money in F can take a long time to come to fruition and significant rises often happen first. Short term, even when this overbought, there tend to be minor pullbacks of a few percent, but nothing (in my opinion) worth the risk of going short. I sure wouldn't be a buyer here, though.
I think it will be oversold soon and offer a better entry point for longs. Just my opinion and not an overly strong one at that. F is tricky and TBH I don't have a great track record with it.
FORD over-extended?I got long around $12.50 but I think we could have a small pull back here. I sold to be safe. We have a nice topping pattern on daily. Not financial advice, DYOR.
Finer Market Points: SP500 Top 10 Momentum Stocks: 16 Jul 2024NYSE:SW NASDAQ:TSLA NYSE:GLW NASDAQ:TER NASDAQ:AAPL NYSE:KMX NYSE:IRM NASDAQ:NVDA NYSE:F NASDAQ:CHTR
Momentum leading shares are the market's best performers today. They are the fastest-growing shares in the SP500 over the last 90 days. These companies can't get to be leaders without first appearing on our Launch Pad list.
The Launch Pad List is calculated daily.
Today's SP500's Top 10 Quarterly Momentum Stocks are:
Smurfit WestRock plc Ordinary Shares (SW)
Tesla, Inc. - Common Stock (TSLA)
Corning Incorporated Common Stock (GLW)
Teradyne, Inc. - Common Stock (TER)
Apple Inc. - Common Stock (AAPL)
CarMax Inc (KMX)
Iron Mountain Incorporated (Delaware) Common Stock REIT (IRM)
NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock (NVDA)
Ford Motor Company Common Stock (F)
Charter Communications, Inc. - Class A Common Stock (CHTR)
FORD Is BullishFord shows an impulsive upward movement. The chart indicates a completed bottom formation.
A long position can target the open balance price range at USD 13.60. In view of the current bullish momentum and the sector rotation, the chances of price increases appear high.
Stocks pairs trading: F vs INTCLet's examine the trade potential for Ford (F) and Intel (INTC) by analyzing their key financial metrics and recent performance to determine reasons for going long on Ford and short on Intel.
Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio:
Ford (F): P/E ratio of 13.34
Intel (INTC): P/E ratio of 35.18
Ford’s P/E ratio is significantly lower than Intel's, indicating that Ford is potentially undervalued compared to Intel. This makes Ford a more attractive investment from a valuation standpoint.
Profitability Metrics:
Ford (F): ROA of 1.48%, ROE of 9.20%
Intel (INTC): ROA of 2.15%, ROE of 3.99%
Ford’s return on equity is substantially higher than Intel’s, suggesting Ford is more effective at generating profit from its shareholders' equity.
Performance Metrics:
Ford (F): Perf Year of -12.36%, Perf YTD of 7.70%
Intel (INTC): Perf Year of 5.64%, Perf YTD of -32.79%
Ford has shown a positive year-to-date performance, while Intel has struggled significantly this year. This trend reflects Ford’s recovery and growth prospects, particularly with its recent earnings beating expectations and a promising outlook for 2024.
Decision:
Long on 3 Ford (F)
Short on 1 Intel (INTC)
Ford's FutureFord Motor Company has been making headlines with its strategic moves in the EV sector, coupled with its recent financial performance. This analysis dives deep into the technical indicators, price action, and current news to forecast potential price movements.
Current Price Action: Ford is trading at $12.93, showing a slight increase of 0.66% in the recent trading session. The stock has been moving within a range, with recent upward momentum indicating potential bullish sentiment.
Support Levels: $12.25 (Exponential Moving Average 30), $11.85 (Pivot S1)
Resistance Levels: $13.31 (Pivot R2), $14.38 (Pivot R3)
Relative Strength Index (RSI): 66.30 (Neutral)
MACD Level: 0.19 (Buy)
Momentum (10): 1.08 (Buy)
Stochastic RSI Fast: 98.72 (Neutral)
Ichimoku Base Line: 12.34 (Neutral)
The RSI is in the mid-60s, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, which aligns with a mid-range PSI. The MACD and Momentum indicators are both showing buy signals, suggesting a potential continuation of the current upward trend.
Short-term (10, 20 EMA): Bullish, trading above the price
Medium-term (50, 100 EMA): Bullish, supporting upward movement
Long-term (200 EMA): Bullish, indicating a long-term upward trend
The convergence of short-term and medium-term moving averages above the price points to a bullish sentiment. The long-term trend also supports this view, with the 200 EMA providing strong support.
Short-term Target: $13.50 (Slight resistance, conservative target)
Medium-term Target: $14.50 (Next significant resistance, moderate target)
Long-term Target: $16.00 (Speculative high target, potential upside)
Current News and Market Sentiment
Ford's recent headlines highlight its advancements in the electric vehicle sector, notably with the introduction of new models and partnerships aimed at increasing EV production. This positions Ford favorably in the rapidly growing EV market. Positive earnings reports and strategic investments further bolster investor confidence.
Long Position:
Entry Point: $12.50 - $12.75
Stop Loss: $12.00 (Below the recent support levels to minimize risk)
Take Profit Targets:
First Target: $13.50 (Secure initial gains)
Second Target: $14.50 (For continued bullish momentum)
Third Target: $16.00 (Speculative, high-risk high-reward target)
Short Position:
Entry Point: $13.50 - $13.75 (If the price action shows signs of reversal near resistance)
Stop Loss: $14.00 (Just above the resistance to prevent larger losses)
Take Profit Targets:
First Target: $12.75 (Support level, secure initial profit)
Second Target: $12.25 (Strong support, maximize gains)
Ford Motor Company exhibits a strong bullish trend supported by technical indicators and positive market sentiment driven by its EV advancements. Traders can consider a long position with well-defined entry and exit points, keeping an eye on the specified support and resistance levels. Conversely, a short position can be considered if the price action shows resistance near the upper targets. Always ensure to use stop-loss orders to manage risk effectively.
FORD intends to be back at $20 soon!FORD weekly data is conveying massive accumulation at the current price range. Net buy volume this past few days / weeks has been on the weighty side.
Expect some significant price shift to the upside with target of X2 easily at $20.
$10-12 price level has been a major order block where buyers converge. This area has been tested many times and prices keeps reversing to the upside.
Spotted at 12.0
TAYOR.
Safeguard capital always.
Ford Bullish Pennant Flag?Does This look like a bullish Pennant?
This looks like a classical pennant, well defined. support @ $12, and a trending bearish trend for resistants, need to wait for confirmation
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 17- Ford Motors - (5th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing Ford Motors (F), starting from the 4-Month chart.
- R2F
$F still reliable?Order came in for NYSE:F overflooding the $12 strike with calls. Check picture for a mini lesson!
Plan is to grab 1 ITM strike (puts) tomorrow at market open.
