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FUBOTV INC

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FUBO trade ideas

Daily Halftime Report: FUBO - Long PlayFUBO broke out to $4.99 this morning after announcing an agreement to combine their Online Live TV Businesses, creating a new venture with the merge that would position Disney with 70% Ownership | Fubo with the remaining 30%. This will prompt FuboTV to drop it's legal claims against Disney also. I'm looking for a potential entry at $3.69 after seeing it peak at $4.99, with a price target of $8.14 over time until the merger is completed, with confirmation of close above $3.81 on the stock. MT-Newswire: 08:31 AM EST, 01/06/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Walt Disney (DIS) and streaming provider FuboTV (FUBO) are nearing an agreement to combine their online live TV businesses, Bloomberg reported Monday, citing sources familiar with the discussions. Under the deal, Disney will merge its Hulu + Live TV business into Fubo, creating a new venture that would be 70% owned by Disney and 30% by Fubo, Bloomberg reported. The transaction excludes Hulu's subscription video-on-demand business, which allows users to stream content on-demand for a fee, the report said As part of the deal, Fubo is expected to drop its legal claims against Disney, Fox (FOX), and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) over Venu Sports, Bloomberg said. Fubo, which had a market value of about $481 million as of Friday, will remain publicly traded after the deal, which could be announced as soon as this week, according to the report. Representatives for Disney and Fubo didn't immediately respond to MT Newswires' requests for comment. FuboTV shares soared by more than 60% in premarket trading, while Disney was little changed.
NYSE:FUBOLong
by MyMIWallet
FUBO possible price target based on recent Merge newsDisclaimer: on the fundamental side and based on many rough assumptions, not financial advice or any kind of advice, cannot guarantee accuracy, just for fun. A. Combined Revenue Baseline Starting (Year 1 Post-Close) Combined Revenue: Let’s assume the newly merged Fubo + Hulu + Live TV starts with $2.0B of annualized revenue in 2025 (the first full year post-close). Rationale: Fubo alone was on track for $1.3–$1.4B in 2023–2024 (annualizing trends), plus Hulu + Live TV with 4.4M subs could contribute $2– SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:3B on its own. However, some portion of Hulu + Live TV’s revenue might remain within Disney’s broader ecosystem, so let’s keep it conservative at $2.0B combined to start. Revenue Growth Rates: We assume synergy-driven marketing boosts sub growth and cross-selling lifts ARPU. We’ll start with a 25% top-line growth in 2026, then step down by a few points each year as the business matures that implies strong execution on synergy, cross-promotion, and relatively stable ARPU. If growth or ARPU lags, these numbers would be lower. B. Cost Structure (COGS + Opex) Cost of Goods Sold (COGS): For virtual MVPDs, content/licensing fees are huge, often 70–90% of revenue. Let’s assume Fubo, pre-merger, was around 85–90% COGS as a percentage of revenue. With scaled synergy, maybe that drops gradually. Operating Expenses (Excluding COGS): This category includes marketing, G&A, R&D, etc. For a growth streamer, marketing is large, but synergy should yield savings. Let’s assume total opex (ex-COGS) is 15% of revenue in 2025, declining to around 12% by 2029 as scale efficiencies kick in. 2025: (100% – 82% – 15%) = 3% margin → $2.0B * 3% = $60M 2029: (100% – 76% – 12%) = 12% margin → $3.8B * 12% = $456M C. Depreciation & Amortization, Capital Expenditures D&A in streaming typically is modest relative to revenue, often 2–3%. We’ll use 2.5% of revenue. Capex can also be low as a % of revenue (streaming is more about licensing, not building data centers). Let’s assume 3% of revenue on average. D. Taxes & NOLs Fubo (and combined entity) likely has significant Net Operating Losses (NOLs). Over this horizon, taxes may be minimal. For simplicity, assume an effective tax rate of 20% on positive pre-tax income, but note that NOLs might defer real cash taxes beyond 2029. We’ll do a partial tax assumption in the DCF to be conservative. E. Working Capital vMVPDs can have some favorable working-capital dynamics (subscriber payments in advance), but also large monthly payments for content. We assume working capital changes net out near zero over time. F. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) & Terminal Value WACC: Let’s assume 10%. This is fairly typical for a somewhat speculative media/tech company; actual WACC might range from 8–12% depending on capital structure, market risk appetite, interest rates, and beta. Terminal Value: End of Year 2029, we assume the business grows at 3% perpetuity. We can use either a perpetuity growth approach or an EV/EBITDA exit multiple. EV/EBITDA Multiple: If the market is confident in stable 12–15% EBITDA margins, it may assign ~8–10x EBITDA for a vMVPD. Let’s pick 9x. With 2029 EBITDA of $456M, TV = $456M * 9 = $4.10B (un-discounted, at end of 2029). The perpetuity approach and the 9x multiple approach might produce similar numbers. We’ll pick $4.10B as the terminal value for simplicity. Projected Free Cash Flow & DCF A. Calculating EBIT, Taxes, & FCF EBIT = EBITDA – D&A. EBT = EBIT – net interest expense (we’ll assume interest is modest if net debt remains manageable). Tax = EBT * 20% (though real taxes could be postponed due to NOLs). FCF = EBIT – Taxes + D&A – Capex – changes in working capital. 2025 is near breakeven, consistent with 3% EBITDA margin minus some capex. By 2029, FCF approaches $262M. B. Terminal Value & Present Values Terminal Value at the end of 2029 = $4.10B (based on 9x $456M EBITDA or a perpetuity approach). So the total un-discounted value at end of 2029 = $262M (FCF in 2029) + $4.10B (terminal value) ≈ $4.36B. Now we discount each year’s FCF + terminal value at 10%. So the present value of all future cash flows plus terminal value is about $2.69B. Adjusting for Net Debt and Arriving at Equity Value Net Debt Let’s assume post-deal Fubo has roughly $400M in net debt. (It might be lower if they effectively use the $220M settlement to pay down obligations, but let’s be conservative.) Equity Value Enterprise Value (DCF) = $2.69B. Equity Value = EV – Net Debt = $2.69B – $0.40B = $2.29B. Shares Outstanding We need to estimate the new share count. Fubo currently has ~300M shares, but Disney will own 70%, implying significant issuance. Let’s guess total diluted shares post-close around 500M (it could be 600M, 700M… depends on the final structure, conversions, etc.). Implied Share Price $2.29B equity / 500M shares = $4.58 per share (present value basis). Sensitivity Analysis A single set of assumptions can be misleading. Wall Street analysts usually build a sensitivity table around (1) WACC, (2) terminal multiple / growth, and (3) synergy levels. A. Terminal Multiple vs. WACC Below is a mini-table varying WACC (vertical) and the exit EV/EBITDA multiple (horizontal): WACC \ EV/EBITDA 7x 8x 9x 10x 11x 9% $4.01 $4.58 $5.13 $5.68 $6.23 10% $3.29 $3.93 $4.58 $5.22 $5.87 11% $2.76 $3.35 $3.93 $4.52 $5.10 (Hypothetical share prices using 500M shares, and the same baseline synergy.) If the business meets synergy targets and the market is optimistic, awarding 10x or 11x EBITDA at a 9–10% WACC, the share price might be $5–$6+. If synergy disappoints (leading to 7x–8x multiple or higher WACC), fair value could be $2–$3 per share. B. Revenue & Margin Upside If the combined company outperforms, pushing EBITDA margins from 12% in 2029 to 15%, or if revenue grows faster (e.g., SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:4B + by 2029), the DCF would yield a higher equity value. Conversely, if synergy fails and margins remain single-digit, the final share price would be lower. 5) Interpretation Illustrative Fair Value Range: Our base-case synergy scenario (9x terminal multiple, 10% WACC) suggests $4.58 per share. With more optimistic assumptions (e.g., 15% margin, 10x multiple, slight NOL advantage on taxes, net debt below $300M, or fewer total shares), the model could push the fair value toward $7–$10+. Under more pessimistic assumptions (less synergy, 7x multiple, 11% WACC, or 600M+ shares), it could fall to $2–$3. Comparing to Market Price Movements: The stock jumped from $1.44 to around $6 on the deal announcement—a big gap from the DCF “$4.58” scenario. This often happens in M&A contexts due to immediate speculation, short covering, hype, or the possibility that synergy is bigger than the market initially expected. Key Drivers: Synergy: If the combined vMVPD truly drives content-cost savings and robust subscriber growth, margins will expand quickly. Regulatory Outcome: If the deal is delayed or blocked, this entire synergy story could unravel. Share Count: The single biggest wild card is how many shares exist post-close. If it’s 700M instead of 500M, that alone reduces the per-share price by ~30%. Capital Structure: If Fubo uses the $220M settlement to retire more debt, net debt might be only $200M, improving equity value. Conclusion & Takeaways This “far more detailed” DCF approach illustrates how professional analysts might try to triangulate a fair value for Fubo after the Hulu + Live TV combination, incorporating synergy-driven margin expansion. The result is not a single price, but a range based on multiple scenarios: Base-Case (in this illustrative model): around $4–$5 per share. Upside (strong synergy, favorable market multiples, fewer shares, quicker margin expansion): $7–$10+. Downside (weak synergy, higher WACC, more shares, persistent losses): $2–$3. The exact share price depends heavily on: Actual synergy: content cost reductions, ad revenue growth, etc. Subscriber churn and ARPU trajectory. Regulatory constraints on the combined entity. Final capital structure (net debt) and total share count post-transaction. Broad market conditions for streaming/tech stocks (risk appetite, interest rates).
NYSE:FUBOLong
by tratrarose
Is FUBO setting up for a MASSIVE MOVE UP? 65% UpsideCharturday #1: NYSE:FUBO 📺 Weekly Chart: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -Wr% trending up from bottoms -Sitting on Volume Shelf -Triangle Pattern x2 - Need to breakout...again Daily Chart: -Triple Bottom with a liquidity grab below 3rd bottom -At volume shelf -At bottom of Wr% and swinging higher -Need to swing back up to $1.90 breakout area Targets if we breakout of any of the patterns: 🎯$2.17🎯$2.36🎯$2.52🎯$2.82 I'm in this trade and holding on due to the H5 indicator staying GREEN on the weekly. If you aren't in this trade it's not one worth entering until we have a breakout. Not financial advice.
NYSE:FUBOLong
by RonnieV29
18
$FUBO UPDATE! We may be primed for a BIG BOUNCE! NYSE:FUBO -Staying patient and believe we may now be going for a triple bottom before we have our large move to the upside as you see on the daily chart below. -Weekly H5 indicator is still GREEN -We are also on the floor and green bounce area on the williams r%! Which to this point you've see what happens when we get there -I'm not concerned because we haven't started moving big on the IWM yet and until then most small caps won't move unless they have a catalyst.
NYSE:FUBOLong
by RonnieV29
11
FuboTV Stock Surges After Winning Preliminary InjunctionShares of fuboTV Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:FUBO ) skyrocketed by 35.5% in the morning session following a significant legal victory against the proposed Venu Sports joint venture, involving industry giants The Walt Disney Company, FOX Corp., and Warner Bros. Discovery. This joint venture was poised to dominate 60%-80% of live broadcast sports content, which Fubo argued would stifle competition and inflate consumer prices. The court’s decision to grant a preliminary injunction has not only buoyed FuboTV’s stock but also positioned the company as a champion of consumer rights in the streaming market. The Legal Victory: A Turning Point for FuboTV FuboTV's victory in the courtroom is being hailed as a win for both the company and consumers. David Gandler, co-founder and CEO of Fubo, emphasized that the ruling helps ensure a competitive marketplace with multiple sports streaming options, thereby protecting consumers from potential monopolistic practices by larger players in the industry. The injunction has had an immediate and profound impact on FuboTV's stock, which saw a massive gap up in Monday's premarket trading. The stock opened at $1.74, significantly higher than its previous close of $1.53, and continued to rise, last trading at $1.95 with a massive volume of 24,588,413 shares. This surge reflects the market’s positive reception of the ruling and the potential for a more favorable competitive environment in the sports streaming space. Technical Analysis: Navigating the Volatility While the legal victory has provided a significant short-term boost, FuboTV's stock remains highly volatile, which is evident in its historical price movements. Over the past year, FuboTV (NYSE: NYSE:FUBO ) has experienced 70 instances where its stock moved by more than 5% in a single session. However, a 35.5% jump is extraordinary even by Fubo’s standards, signaling that the market views this news as a major turning point. Key Technical Indicators: - 50-Day Moving Average: $1.30 - 200-Day Moving Average: $1.49 - Current Price: $1.91 (as of the time of writing) - P/E Ratio: -2.19 (indicating ongoing losses) The stock’s current price of $1.91 represents a 46.8% drop from its 52-week high of $3.56, reached in December 2023. Despite the recent surge, FuboTV’s stock is down 39.8% year-to-date, reflecting the broader challenges the company faces in turning its operations profitable. Market Sentiment: Mixed But Improving Despite the positive news, FuboTV remains a speculative play. The company reported 1.45 million paid subscribers in North America in its most recent quarter, up 24% year-over-year. However, it also posted a net loss of $25.8 million, underscoring the challenges it faces in achieving profitability. The market’s reaction to the injunction suggests a belief that FuboTV could leverage this legal win to improve its competitive standing, but the road to sustained profitability remains uncertain. Institutional Activity: A Vote of Confidence? Institutional investors have been active in FuboTV’s stock, with some increasing their stakes recently. Notably, Susquehanna Fundamental Investments LLC and Jacobs Levy Equity Management Inc. bought new positions in FuboTV during the first quarter, indicating a level of confidence in the company’s future prospects. Conclusion: A Potential Rebound Play with Risks FuboTV’s legal victory is a significant milestone that has reinvigorated investor interest in the stock. However, the company’s ongoing financial challenges and highly volatile stock price suggest that this is still a high-risk, high-reward investment. The stock's technical indicators show a potential for further gains, especially if the company can capitalize on the legal win to strengthen its market position. However, investors should remain cautious, as the stock’s volatility and negative earnings are key risks that could impact future performance.
NYSE:FUBOLong
by DEXWireNews
FUBO "B" wave bottoming? First upside target 4.85USD?This is a followup idea on my previous one where we "idezied" the bottoming process, which so far has been manifested. So far I see it as a huge (A)(B)(C) forming to the upside, hence the choppiness, which overall LIKELY will stay as 3 wave structure hitting a several year upside target of between 22 - 84 USD, too soon to projectile anything more proper target. Can it be something even more bullish? Yes, but it has to proove a lot in the upcoming years. In that case it is LIKELY to be a huge overall diagonal. What I lean towards is that we are in the huge white (A) wave, unfinished still, within that we likely to have a big ABC structure, in which the "A" wave likely completed, and we are in the "B" wave down. I have already removed the 0.382 and 0.5 fib retracement levels, generally we are reaching/has reached a very good risk/reward ratio already for the long term. As this could be the b wave down, it is quiet tricky, morphing, wavecount changing and evolving, and likely to have more choppiness. Even it COULD undershoot as still be valid, hence I have carefully, but constantly scaling back-in for long Next support levels to watch: 1.65-1.50 After that: 1.30-1.20 (less likely, but CAN happen) After that: 1.16-1.05 (even less likely, but CAN happen) Currently we are below all meaningfull moving averages (9/21/50/180&200 day MA's), but within support. I have added a "bearish" route/count as well, for the very long term I am still bullish even in that scenario, however likely to have 1 or 2 more swingdowns deeper to complete the yellow route big wave 5, and THEN (assuming no banktrupcy) would have at least a very strong correction to the upside.
NYSE:FUBOLong
by tommtajlor
6
FUBO - LONGSmall position in calls here, per last call transcript, fuboTV Inc. exceeded Q4 2023 earnings expectations with an EPS of -$0.17 against a forecast of -$0.25. The report highlighted significant year-over-year growth, including a 12% increase in paid subscribers and a 29% rise in total revenue. The company also reported a record $114 million in annual ad revenue, a 14% improvement from the previous year. Despite facing a challenging advertising market and anticompetitive practices from rivals, fuboTV is confident in achieving profitability by 2025, bolstered by a strong balance sheet, improved free cash flow, and operational efficiencies. Additionally, fuboTV filed an antitrust lawsuit against major media corporations, aiming to combat monopolistic practices in sports streaming. fuboTV beating earnings expectations, showing significant year-over-year growth in both subscriber numbers and total revenue, alongside achieving a record in annual ad revenue. The company's strong balance sheet and improved operational efficiencies, as evidenced by better free cash flow and adjusted EBITDA, underscore its path towards profitability by 2025. These factors, combined with its proactive stance against anticompetitive practices through an antitrust lawsuit, i dont think this stock should trade in a new lower liquidity range, we are at the cheap LVN, there was also an upgrade today by a firm to 2.50, which is the next accepted trading range above if the market wants to re evaluate the fair value of FUBO. I do not use the Wyckoff Sniper, by the way. lol. forgot to take it off as i was looking at it today out of curiosity. I am comfortable with wyckoff logic, but this is not my go to.
NYSE:FUBOLong
by SPYDERMARKET
1
FUBO TV Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 021124 Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 2.2/61.80% Chart time frame : D A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress : B A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) Hit the bottom D) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
NYSE:FUBO
by fibonacci6180