GLD consolidating before the next drop Gold did drop hard from the rising wedge, a very powerful bearish tradeable pattern. Now it's found support and started with forming a possible bear pullback which if formed could bring GLD back to the BigRed which is around 166$. Because of that huge drop on huge volume, it is very hard to say this is a healthy correction, rather than a new leg down. Like it always is played in the market, buy the rumor and sell on the news. Central banks bought tons of gold last year and then this year news came out about how they are increasing their position in gold and small retail traders went in shopping like there is no gold left. And now are bag holders.
Volume does confirm the price move to the down, very strong volume on the strong drop, very bearish.
It is below 20 days MA but above 50 and 200 days MA which is kindy of neutral.
RSI did cool down.
MACD is in the red, but both MACD and signal line is still above zero line which could be bullish.
After likely drop to BigRed GLD must find support and buyers otherwise this will be high for a longer period of time.
The dollar movement will defiantly help metals in their path, and one of the strongest movers will e CPI next week and FED next meeting.
GLD could even close the gap, but a further drop is imminent. The best option for bears would be consolidating or rising on small volume and then reversal on strong volume after a bear pullback is formed.
GLD trade ideas
Trade Journal - GLD, Nov 14 (long)Tracking
Nov 14
+ Went long 2 shares to have exposure to gold for long-term investment.
- Changed mind and did a swing trade on it instead
- Did not enter based on TA
- Stoploss was hit and did not exit position
- Did not have an ideal amount of risk for this position (position size too small)
Dec 1
- Hit TP and did not scale out
Dec 12
- Crossed baseline and did not exit position
Jan 24
? Trade is being actively maintained. If TP is hit, will move SL up. If SL is hit, will exit position. Not ideal position management, but it's become profitable so we can let it ride - this time.
Trades
Nov 14 +2 @ 164.78 (4.95 fee)
Outcome
Ongoing, but poor. Did not follow any rules whatsoever. Same issues as trade with TSX:COPP , see link.
GLD daily - at resistance, bearish reversal candlestick patternGLD daily is also at resistance, the same as GLD weekly which make even more pressure on the downside. GLD drops out of a smaller rising wedge which is bearish and is still inside of a big rising wedge which is a bearish pattern. GLD formed a bearish reversal pattern at the top, Hanging man. At the moment it is basing at a high which could be bullish if pops strong up, however chance for that is not more than 20%.
GLD is above all significant MA which is bullish and a sign of a strong bull market.
Volume is dropping during consolidation which is also bullish, as there are not too many sellers at this point.
RSI is way overbought and has strong and long bearish divergences which indicate a likely drop in price pretty soon.
MACD histograms are ticking lower with strong bearish negative divergences.
Overall: even though gold is in a bull market, its price is likely to reach its top for now and is ready to pull back. For bulls would be perfect to see pullback with smaller candles and on smaller volume for some time. A stronger volume on the downside with a bigger candle would indicate we are done with moving up and GLD is going down hard. Also bullish would be for the price to consolidate for several more days on this level without popping up on smaller volume so 20 days MA can catch a little bit and then move strong up.
On the downside, major support will be the rising trend line and rising 20 days MA. With the breaking of that support, next support would be the 166-168 area where is the support of weekly, and 50 and BigRed days MA on daily.
GLD gold likely correction/end of rise for nowGLD weekly - gold likely correction/end of rise for now
GLD is in a symmetrical triangle and is close to major resistance. GLD had 10 weeks up move and is due to correct. Volume is dropping which is not the best option with such a strong move-up. Volume is not confirming price action.
GLD is above all significant MA which is bullish and a sign of a strong bull market.
RSI is way overbought and is due to correct.
MACD histogram is ticking higher while the MACD line and the signal line are above zero line signaling bullish momentum.
Overall: GLD is bullish especially when the dollar is dropping. However, as GLD is at resistance, at the same time USA dollar is at strong support. For the continuation of the bullish move, GLD needs to correct at least to FIB 0.5 and then start to move up so RSI and MACD can cool down and have a healthy bull move. Otherwise, I expect a fakeout above, hitting resistance (blue dotted line) and getting rejected pretty hard and at the same time finish of a bull move for a longer period of time. Also, the more the price stays inside the triangle the more powerful movement will be.
GLD spot gold TrustGLD spot gold Trust. Gold is getiing up there to it's overbought zone $1927 today. Therefore, from a strictly risk : reward entry setup, this GLD post is short from $180. Plus, pi RSI is getting close to a good short entry setup & GLD options data is leaning bearish for February, but still bullish for March now. It could very well also be a sideways theta trade setup maybe. Here's levels on the GLD 16hr ext chart (1 day):
SMA200 = $166
VWMA 20 TTCATR(beta):
top = $181
R3 = $179
R2 = $177
R1 = $175
pivot = $173
S1 = $171
S2 = $169
S3 = $167
bottom = $165
2/17/23 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 1,735
Call Volume Total 2,137
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.81
Put Open Interest Total 94,273
Call Open Interest Total 85,703
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.10
3/17/23 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 1,065
Call Volume Total 2,184
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.49
Put Open Interest Total 111,843
Call Open Interest Total 238,043
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.47
GLD short term short, long term bull trend intactGLD was in a down trend from March 22 until early November 22
Since GLD broke that trend it has turn former resistance into support with confirmation
on Jan 13 GLD broke through the next reistance zone around 175 and is now peaking at almost 180$
even though on Jan 17 and 18 GLD traded down and then came back strong on Jan 19 it still needs to come back and visit this former resistance for confirmation.
ADX over 20 indicates strong trend, here on the 1 day it is 40 with the +DI (green) in bullish spread (40 v 13)
50 day DEMA crossed the 200 day DEMA in late November
The price has gotten far above the 50 day DEMA, another clue that a short term correction is in order.
GLD: Hit the Brakes ✋🛑Almost there! GLD should slam on the brakes and wrap up the blue wave (i). After completion, we expect the course to dip into the blue target zone between $162.26 and $155.58 to fulfill the corrective low of the blue wave (ii). Once achieved, the GLD is good to go and should rise back North.
$GLD - Grrr babyIn a world where central banks are buying the hell out of gold/precious metals in preparation for what’s to come with Russia and China, gold prices were brought down by speculative and stupid beliefs in other assets. As dumb as it is that a shiny rock is worth soooo much, it’s the asset China and Russia want every ounce of which makes me love it more. Getting more beautiful!!
GLD SPDR two bullish breakout patterns in one!W Formation has formed and the price has broken above recently.
We then have a larger Cup and Handle forming, which the price is now completing the Brim Level.
This market is correlating well with Gold and seems to be lagging the current Gold rally. This means, we can expect upside for GLD very soon.
My first target is $174.68