GLD trade ideas
Recent gold moves resemble the 2012-2013 topWith bonds rallying a bit, it's possible we will see gold break upward out of its recent downtrend. I can't help but compare gold's recent moves to the 2012-2013 top in gold. We look to be making a very similar pattern, but on a compressed time scale. Long term this comparison implies that gold will move downward from here, but short term, if the comparison holds, we could see a rally through the first resistance line to at least make a test of the second resistance line.
Personally, rather than buy gold directly, I've bought some Barrick Gold. I figure if I'm going to bet on gold, I might as well get a stock with a dividend. (I'm also just better at placing valuations on equities than on metals, so I usually prefer to bet on metals indirectly by buying stocks.) I should note that buying miners works a little differently than directly buying metals, because geopolitical events that are good for gold are sometimes bad for miners because they negatively impact production. In any case, Barrick has been in a downtrend along with gold, and may also make an upward break through resistance:
I have bought in anticipation of a breakout, but another way to play is to set an alert on the resistance line and buy after a breakout has occurred.
GLD bounce from channel bottom - targets 166, 171Last week GLD price came all the way down to the bottom of the blue support region and tried to push lower (below 158) but the channel support line (white) held firm. Now I am looking for price to bounce up to moving averages and/or channel top. This gives targets of 166 and 171.
The dotted pink line connects closing prices on a line chart. The solid pink line connects high prices. Since I bought April calls using very little capital, I have enough time and comfort to hold the loss and see if price moves higher. I am using the hourly and daily chart for this trade.
GLD comebackBased off my technical analysis GLD has been trading in between a channel the past few months. Recently, we saw GLD bounce off the lower end of the channel simultaneously reversing from an important resistance level at $157. This may suggest a reversal to the upper end around $169 in the coming few months. Finally, in support of the resistance at $169, volume profile shows high activity also at $169.
GLD - Rebound time?Gap filled and bought back up all day. We'll see if next week confirms a reversal, but it's still holding the longer trend line.
Gold: We have entered a bear cycle.This long-term chart of GLD reveals that we have entered the next bearish cycle for the Gold market. This cycle of the Gold market peaked a couple of months ago and seems to be following the same trend from the last cycle. In fact, if we use the fib-retracement tool to plot the pullback from the first pulldown from the peak, we can see that GLD has bounced up and found minor support on the 100% fib trend retracement line.
We can now expect a rise to the 61.8%-38.2% levels before falling down from there again. Be careful shorting puts or going long in those levels as we may never see another ATH for months if not years.
Trade Idea: Short GLD around $171-$180.
While it is unlikely for it to keep rising higher to new ATHs anytime soon, you can set stop-losses above at a comfortable level while leaving enough wiggle room. We can expect GLD and Gold to continue to fall from those $175 levels down below the $156 fib support, and then the 148 support area. Once the price breaks those levels, we can expect a high-velocity waterfall sell-off to the $136 support area, where we can also take some profits on the way. The key support area and the final price target is the parallel channel support around $107.5-$115, which we can expect to see in anywhere from 9 months to 5 years.
Golden Retriever GLDYea this could be pretty ugly if breaks here
Gold has walked on down to sub 1700....just broke after the Feb Jobs number down to 1690
Maybe this is the final flush out before Gold regains a bid on some inflation worries...
Though it really doesn't seem to care about that
Either way I'm getting long GLD calls here for a move back up towards 165 where there is a large open interest in the options market for March opex
If need be this trade will become a short credit spread real quick especially if USD shows continued strength
Opening (IRA): GLD June 18th 149 Short Put... for a 1.88/contract credit.
Notes: Adding a third "rung" to my GLD position out in June on this weakness. 1.28% ROC as a function of notional risk.
GLD oversold to support line + RSI low = swing callsPrice broke below the support zone, all the way to the white support line. As green arrows show, every time RSI is this low we see a move up in price. This is a big reversal open as well. I kept April calls from last week and am adding more for this move up.
Gold Bottoms TODAY.We have a weekly TD9 on GLD, and some major divergences showing up across the Gold chart. I believe today is a major swing bottom.
Wave 5 Correction. Strong downward trend. Short term down.Heavy sell off and no sign of upward momentum. All MA downward angles. Downward momentum is strong within channel. Still making LH LL.
Key support $158.35. Until it bounces off this level and shows some bullish candle patterns, I am cautious.
Preferred entry zone is below $160. Stop loss $156. But I would not take this trade yet. Very risky. It could get cheaper.
GLD possible cup and handle weekly viewGLD weekly view might be drawing a cup and handle bullish pattern. Lets wait and see.
Time to buy some GLD?In a larger huge triangle, hovering right above uptrend line that is unbroken since may '19. On the top of a reversal zone inside two possible bullish descending wedges. I think now is the time to take a stake in gold.
GLD - Taking a Long Term Shot HereInterest rates soar, what could be worse for gold? Taking a long term shot here. Bought 170-220 June 22 call spreads in the 7s. Price is at the 20 month moving average now. Well, that means nothing I guess. Prices could always go lower. But with such a long time horizon, the short term volatility represents a decent place to accumulate. Extending the trend line to June 22, looks like to could be 192 so this should pay off. If it goes lower, I reassess trends and add more.
Finale selloff in GLD - will reverse up when yields/USD dropOn the weekly and daily charts, my indicators all show that selling may soon be exhausted. On weekly, you can see price is in support zone and you can visually see three waves of selling from top (Sept '20, Nov '20, today). Initially I was looking for 163 to hold but there is too much yield-rising pressure so price is moving down into green support band.
I bought April 170 calls. When it is scary to buy at the bottom, keep your position size small. If GLD moves higher, it will get back over solid white line and you capture a fantastic price move. If this trade idea does not work you lose little (with small position) because you bought very close to stop loss.
Gold Due to Rebound from trough: LONG on Au $GLD Gold has dipped into a buy zone for a nice long now.
With the overall volatility of the market and overall uncertainty on the role of most investors, it is time for Au.
LONG Gold.
This lacks in terms of analytical depth but the low on the chart is overt enough to speak for itself. Now is a good time to enter.
-BDR
