Gold flaggingBullish flag, I'll buy some calls expiring in two months from now. You can also check NYSE:NEM is doing a similar bullish flag. Strike 225
GLD trade ideas
GLD long setup around $214-15I dowse stocks and did a reading on GLD, so want to journal it here. The levels are often good, but sometimes the order they hit is confused.
What I believe I'm getting is that GLD drops to the $214-15 area, which, coincidentally includes a gap area. I did ask how high this goes and I got $318ish but not till next year. I also have a date of the 5th to watch for something. Dates are often reversals, or can be days with large moves. It may be that it reaches the target around $225-26 around then, as that's what I was asking for. I just don't always get the exact answers for what I'm asking, but the date could still end up valid.
Gold: A Strategic Asset in an Uncertain WorldGold's appeal as a safe-haven asset has been reinforced by recent geopolitical tensions. This analysis explores the factors driving gold prices, including geopolitical risks, economic conditions, and the role of gold ETFs.
Gold has proven its resilience as a safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have fueled demand for gold. While economic factors also influence gold prices, the metal's role as a portfolio diversifier remains compelling. Consider gold ETFs for convenient exposure.
Gold serves as a valuable safe-haven asset, particularly during times of geopolitical instability.
Key Points:
Geopolitical Risks: The article highlights the increasing geopolitical tensions globally and their impact on financial markets. The Middle East, in particular, is identified as a region of significant concern.
Gold as a Hedge: Gold's unique characteristics, such as liquidity, store of value, and diversification benefits, make it an effective hedge against geopolitical risks.
Economic Factors: While geopolitical factors are emphasized, the analysis acknowledges the influence of economic conditions, including interest rates and inflation, on gold prices.
Investment Vehicles: Gold ETFs, like the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), are presented as convenient options for investors seeking gold exposure.
Gold's Rise Adjusted for the Money SupplyThe chart on the top shows the price of gold adjusted for the Money Supply.
The chart at the bottom shows the price of gold over time.
Compare and contrast the two and you see a valuable fact. Actually, this is something we should all do more often with our favorite symbols – compare and contrast them to the growing money supply.
Meaning, while gold is hitting all-time highs in nominal terms (chart at the top) it actually is underperforming in a drastic fashion relative to the growth of the money supply happening all around us. In many respects, this is a super important method of repricing assets based on the expansion, growth, and proliferation of the Dollar.
This is often why tech, new products, and innovations win out more than assets like gold. For example, the smaller chart to the right of both charts shows NVIDIA and Apple priced for the expansion of the Dollar. Both assets are still at all-time highs. In-fact, Bitcoin is also near or at all-time highs, although its chart is not nearly as "enormous" as it looks at a nominal level.
There's a lot to unpack here and I'll have to share soon.
Expired GLD Weekly outlook. 2nd WK JULY 2024Expired GLD Weekly outlook. 2nd WK JULY 2024
> BULLISH 📈 CORRECT
Closed Price: 220.93
Target Price: 223 | Strike Price: 224.15 on JULY 11, 2024
Upper Range: 226
Lower Range: 221
215 target bearish Sell off from D legMonitoring the Gold trust, I see exhaustion on the 4hr and Daily chart of gold trust $gld. From D leg, l99king for a min retrace to 215 with the stochastic rsi showing overbought conditions, looking for bearish sentiment through the bearish cloud ..
H&S top in $GLD?GLD seems to be forming a head and shoulders top here with the right should shallower than the left (a very classic pattern). Should this break down here, I think we're likely setting up for a top in GLD.
The technical target for the breakdown would be the $200 level, but after looking at the chart on larger timeframes, I think this could be a more mid-term top (over the next 6-12 months).
I've marked off key levels to the downside should the pattern break down.
GLD - Head and Shoulders Top?GLD is at the neckline of a well defined head and shoulders top. A breakdown would see GLD at 200.
Gold vs the 10yr yieldThis is a ratio chart.
Gold is on top
10 year Yield is on bottom
in the middle you can see the ratio between gold prices and the 10yr yield rising and falling.
As you can tell, when the ratio reaches a low, gold prices tend to rise and yields tend to fall.
Vice/versa when the ratio is at a high, Gold prices tend to fall, and yields tend to rise.
Of course the ratio chart is not "CAUSING" the prices to rise or fall.
In my humble opinion, we are relatively close to the long term low point on the ratio chart.
Meaning that either gold prices should rise and or yields should fall, and or both maybe...
Barrons has recently published a piece saying that rising supply of gold could contribute to prices ending the year around 2100. usd
This would be a drop in price, and doesn't fit in with my narrative.
It might be interesting to see how this ratio plays out, and perhaps it will help you form a bias for your next Gold trade!
GLD to bounceWith big tech starting to correct a bit and QQQ looking weak, I think value stocks and GLD will be a new focus for a bit. GLD broke the downward trend recently and had a nice retest already. A test of the 50EMA on that large red candle is bullish. The daily stochastic RSI has room to run and the weekly is just starting to coil upward. A lift towards 224$ is expected over the coming weeks. I plan on entering longer dated safer call setups on this.
Double Top in Gold That Strangely is Correlated with NividiaDid you know gold and Nividia have an 81% correlation? That's strange. (chart in comments)
I see a double top in gold.
TTM Squeeze firing on weekly, daily, 4 hourly and it's a continuation of a squeeze on the hourly. TTM Squeeze's usually bounce off the opposite side when it breaks/fakes out. Outside an exogenous event I see pm's taking the summer off and reawakening in the fall when the dollar tops out after the BOJ sells US treasuries after China devalues their currency after the dollar spikes when Europe cuts rates soon. It's going to be an epic chain reaction.
The FED will cut rates heading into the election and if Trump wins he'll ride the last meme wave until it crashes and reinstitute a gold standard, or if Biden wins we get CBDC's.
I'll be looking for low IV OTM calls in the fall after the FED cuts rates...
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GLD: Bearish Alternate Bat HOP Level Reached: Reversal LikelyThe yields within the bond market are hinting towards a reversal in Gold and potentially other metals today, however, Gold right now is sitting at the HOP level of a Bearish Alt-Bat. If GLD were to reverse here, we would see it as a type 2 return which could result in Bearish price-Action beyond just the intra week but extended to the entire macro trend as a whole. I will be playing this via multiple OTM /GC Bear Put Vertical Spreads on the monthlies and may potentially start playing cheaper bearish plays on a week by week basis.
GLD - Buy the PullbackWhile today's down move may look dramatic to some, two things going on. One is a typical .382 Fib retracement. The other, a test of the breakout level. Looks like an easy run to the top of the trend channel above 230.
3rd try at breaking through long-term resistanceGold is showing a classic long-term cup and handle period. Spent about 7 years in the "cup" (long shakeout period from the bubble that had formed after the last financial crisis followed by an eventual rally to previous all-time high). It has spent over 2 years now in the "handle" (period of consolidation giving the appearance that price can't break through the previous all-time high). After a recent shakeout and false breakdown from the handle pattern, it looks like it wants to test the all-time high again and this time there's a major catalyst (flight to safety due to all the uncertainty recently with the banks and the potential for yet another financial crisis). Due to that, I don't think you need to wait for a breakout of the all-time highs around $195 in GLD but that would be a safer entry (a monthly close above that level). Of course another shakeout from that level could follow because if I have picked up on this potential trade, then many others likely have also. Anyway, I am just speculating and not a financial advisor, if you decide to follow this please trade at your own risk and diversify (this trade won't break the bank for me personally if it doesn't work out and it shouldn't for you either).
GLD - Time to Take Some off the Table?While I'm still looking for higher prices, eventually, recent gains are too good to pass up. Line chart shows a three week testing of the high and at the moment, appears to be failing. Big move the past couple of days including this morning tried to push prices higher but this morning's big move was met with selling taking it off of overbought highs.
Looking for some pullback to test the 200 level.
POTENTIAL YIELDS CRASHING MAY LEAD TO A SUPER BULLISH GOLDThe inverse relationship between yield and gold over the long term gives us an idea of what phase and dynamics of the market we are in.
The bottoms of the yields are the tops in gold; interestingly the bottoms happen in 4-year cycles, especially in summer, July or June; while the tops are every 5 years in fall, September or October.
Based on these dynamics, a potential and highly probable correction in yield (by any factor) would lead to a historic run to the upside for gold....
Few...
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La relación inversa entre rendimiento y oro a largo plazo nos da una idea de en que fase y dinámica del mercado estamos.
Los fondos de los rendimientos son las cimas en el oro; curiosamente los fondos suceden en ciclos de 4 años, especialmente en verano, julio o junio; mientras que las cimas son cada 5 años en otoño, septiembre u octubre.
Basado en esta dinámica, una potencial y altamente probable correción en el rendimiento (por cualquier factor) llevaría a una corrida al alza histórica para el oro...
Expired GLD Weekly outlook. 1st WK MAY 2024Expired GLD Weekly outlook. 1st WK MAY 2024
> NEUTRAL 📊 CORRECT
Closed Price: 216.62
Target Price: 214.14 | Strike Price: 211.50 APR30 24'
Upper Range: 217.38
Lower Range: 210.90
Acw may nfp We see a bullish trend towards the April ath and possible 2450-2490-2500 and a cpi sell within 2 weeks.
GLD - SHORT POOTSGold prices have been on the decline recently, influenced by several key factors:
1. **Correction from Highs**: Gold had reached a record high last week, trading at $2,413.80 per ounce. Such spikes are often followed by corrections, as seen with the current downward movement.
2. *Rising Dollar and Treasury Yields**: The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields have both increased, which typically makes gold less attractive. As the dollar strengthens, gold, which is priced in dollars, becomes more expensive for investors using other currencies, reducing demand. Higher Treasury yields also make gold less appealing since it does not offer interest or dividends, unlike bonds.
3. **Economic Data Influencing Fed Policy Expectations**: Recent U.S. economic data indicated a 1.6% growth in GDP for the first quarter, which was below expectations. This situation affects market predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Initially, weaker GDP growth might suggest potential rate cuts, which would typically support gold prices as a safe haven and hedge against currency devaluation. However, the current market sentiment suggests that investors are possibly adjusting their expectations about the extent and timing of such cuts.
4. **Geopolitical Tensions**: The easing of tensions between Israel and Iran has also played a role. With fewer concerns about a potential wider conflict in the Middle East, the demand for gold as a safe haven asset has diminished.
5. **Technical Support Levels**: Despite the recent drops, gold prices are still holding above the $2300 mark. Analysts from Saxo Bank noted that there is key support around the $2250-$2260 area, indicating that prices might stabilize if they reach these levels.
Can see easily a demand area at 202 area, longer term.
Puts bought on todays micro double top. good luck!
Gold bull flag reviewI posted this chart in march on a bull flag that was starting to form with a projection to the dashed green. This is a great example of a longer term setup that rewards the patient. Of then these flags or wedges like to break out on strong volume and then dump for a retest, only to continue to project towards the target. If you had entered 6month to one year out calls on this setup youd be up 400-700%. I did not play this setup this time around but have played GLD bull flags in the past and like to use them as a way to get standard investment exposure to the asset with higher upside, this is also more capitally efficient.
-For example a June 21st 2024 call was 300-450$ in that timeframe in March, these are now worth 1320$
-This was my same strategy for OXY longer-term calls
GOLD : From SHIMMER to SHIVER- Gold Prices Set to Slide !GOLD has completed it's upward move. Though Analysts say that it will go up further. It's time to be contrarian as Analysts also manipulate the market for their HNI clients. here might be a small move up but more explosive move is going to be downwards.
