GLD trade ideas
GLD Gold Trust UpdateBullish scenario hasn't been invalidated yet, but higher chance in my opinion of the ~167 to 160 move down . Expecting some more follow through to ~179.5 based on micro structure and corrective move up.
Gold is hard to follow?GLD is still working in a price channel and a trend to the BULLISH side.
Bouncing off the bottom support while consolidating. Positive S&P or DOW moves tend to see down days or sideways selling.
Any bad news may see upticks within the Fib or BB ranges UP!
Watch for Thursday's with Futures closings, Friday Option expiration's and "Witching" days, these are also big Gold/Silver sell signals as margin calls
or weekend bag holders drop positions for cash.
Renko's track just the price moves with trends, use these and Henkin Ashi for patterns, then Candles for action!
short GLD- gold is overcrowded
- USD seasonal bullish
- ABC target / fib extension / multiple fib confluence target around 170-172
GLD Breaking OutShould be an easy one here, as long as the market is "stable" GLD will move along as well I believe.
GLD Inside Ascending Triangle. Upside Breakout Due..After a nice $200+ correction from the fresh all-time highs, Gold appears to be making a new triangle which could breakout to the upside by the end of this month/early-September. While spot gold did go lower which is not reflected in the GLD ETF, spot prices did not stay below $1900 for more then 4 hours which shows there is very STRONG demand under that price. Looking to go LONG again upon a confirmed upside breakout..
GLD 9 year breakout chart/Bull Flag GLD fundamentals and technicals both supporting a breakout of a 9 year rounded base. Currently flagging with support at 180. Breakout of wedge is 187.50 trigger long, targets 190/195/200.
$GLDPossible $GLD Pattern Breakout.
Look to break $185.82 for Entry
Levels above are $189.40,$191.80
$194.45, and $199.68
The $185 calls for this week can work
GLD breaking out of the downtrend. GLD is ready to break out, FED basically said they support elevated inflation levels.
GLD Flag and Round UpGLD gapped up this morning back over its moving averages, showing bullishness from yesterdays decline. I expect the rally to continue and break the flag pattern and complete its rounding formation to $189 level.
GLD short termLook at the so called "HS" pattern. The bears can not get hammer it this morning. What does that mean?
I would use 179 as a soft stop for long.
Wedge in actionI feel this breaks upwards regardless of what happens tomorrow. Any scenario is good for gold and commodities.
GLD playObviously if we close this week in this shape, ppl will expect a dive next week.
Let's assume no dive for now.
If we bounce here and close above 185, this will form a weekly bullish engulfing. This would be very bullish. However, I think the probability is not high given it is still waiting for 10ma to catch up. So, 180-185 is most likely for this week assume no big dive. Of course, one can tailor their strategy by looking at best R/R.
What if there is a dive.
I think UUP long is in a better position for near term play. But imo this scenario is less than 1/3 given a flat and upward MAs and TLT intraday reverse.
GLD Gold Trust updateLeaning towards original count and target ~170 to 175. Also watching for possibility of a corrective wave at this low. SLV could see same scenario
Playing the GLD PullbackThe trend is still valid, we have declined 7.6% from the high of 194.35 with room to fall within the support trendline and 61.8% fibonacci at 178.25.
The play is to buy the lower trendline/golden fib(178.25), or the 50% fib (current price range= 181.33) in increments, and not add if that range collapses until next support level of 168.29. beyond 168.29 and this doesnt fit my definition of a bullish trend within a 3 month window, with price drop risk reaching 147.59.
Dip buying reward range contracted from 24% in early june to +15% for buying the lower trendline touch in mid July, and +6.5% for buying the 61.8% fib for August 12th-16th high. Buying the lowest technical boundary with is the safest way to minimize risk in a mature rally where gold double topped within the same range as previous cycle.
On the fundamental end, I expect the Fed to get extremely creative if there is any kind of intense volatility and liquidity shock again this year, potentially resorting to stock ETF purchases. If economy surprises to the upside, I expect the Fed to remain hands-off and maintain the current measures and rates, leaving earnings as the key driver for equity market upside.
GLD Gold Trust updateCount is good so far. Watching out for the possibility of larger correction. Started last wave in this move
GLD medium term target 204As previously suggested, GLD touched 194 before correcting down to 178-181 gapfill, which has completed as of Aug 12th.
Now a bull flag has formed, 180 needs to hold for original bull thesis, with GP_C2 zone 179-180 being support. Bulls would want a decisive break out above the falling resistance as a confirmation for next attack towards 200. A couple of inside bars in the next sessions to consolidate between 182-185 would be ideal.
Looking for a measured move to 204.8 in the next few weeks.
Current position: LONG
Disclaimer: These should be seen as the commentator's Notes to Self. Hopefully educational but aiming for entertaining. No legal or financial liabilities should be pursued from these materials.
GLD Gold Trust Update - Wave CTarget hasn't changed yet. Still expecting another low around ~170 to 180
