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GLD trade ideas

GLD - HOW AND WHEN TO SHORT IT - NEW IDEA / January 23rd EOD!0. Okay so follow along on this one, I will make it quick; 1. Last time GLD corrected, it was around the $145 Level; 2. It was September 4/6 2019, and it went from $145 to $140 in a matter of like 2 hours (just memory, I was short that day); 3. It rebounded off the $140 support level ; 4. PUT options on the $140 are dirt cheap, and GLD owners see that as support. 5. March 20 2020 $140 PUT - $38 cents a contract- so you can go 1000 shares short for $380 + fees. 6. GLD should SPIKE on January 23rd 2020. This corresponds to the Intel ( INTC ) earnings release; 7. Many believe that INTC may tank the market, as it kicked off the 2000 crash in March; 8. Algorithms are primed to either take this market to 3850, or to 3100 based on earnings ; www.cnbc.com 9. GLD people will load the boat on the 23rd and create a blow-off top; 0. At 3:45pm you will buy GLD March 20th 2020 $140 PUT for < $30c a contract. Throw $300 at it. If you want to take a larger position, you will need a UVXY hedge to counter this unless you are okay losing the premium. But remember you have 60 days for the New Bull Market to take hold, and the Gold Hedge to Unwind. That should be plenty of time. So just buy enough UVXY to cover the $X you spend on GLD Puts. So if you spend $10K on GLD puts, you need to hedge 10K against a meltdown. You use the UVXY to do this. VXX may not be the best hedge right now, UVXY is better (can't explain right now - no time - inefficiencies in the VIX ). If the market corrects, UVXY goes from $10 to $30 in about 2 minutes. So a $1000 purchase of UVXY would be $3000. Anyway, you need a married put or call spread to do this. This is the perfect straddle. So you would also on the 23rd of January buy a married put on the UVXY . So you buy the January 31st UVXY $10.50 put for 50c or whatever, and that give you a week with total protection, against INTC and AMD . All crashes up the 31st of January will only cost you about $500 US for 1000 shares of UVXY for a week. If the market crashes you make $20000 US in about 2 minutes when UVXY spikes to $30, and that is okay, as your $500 puts are worthless, but the stock has a delta of 1.0 so whatever you sell it at, minus $500 is your profit. 1. If you do this, you need to carefully watch the market next week. 2. If INTC raises guidance or beats, or whatever happens and the stock actually goes up on a tear, then GLD is really finished. Gold would probably be around $120 by the end of March and you will be $20K richer, for just a $300 risk/reward. 3. I don't know about you, but this is a nice setup. 4. I also don't think there will be any stops along the way. 5. You need options to do this; 6. So. You can buy all the semiconductors CALLS on the March 20 Strike you like and ALL the GLD PUTS on the March 20 $140 Strike, and just hedge the whole thing over earnings for about $500 bucks. Then you know the direction, and you run with it baby! 7. If you haven't been following my AMD thread, you have really missed out. Been trading it personally and we manage an investment trust on AMD as well. We are long from ~$28 and shares will have to be pried from our cold, dead, hands... - The AMD Whisperer
AMEX:GLDShort
by drchelsea1
5
GLD - GOING TO $120 WITH STOPS ALONG THE WAY, STARTS MONDAY0. As always read all my other notes on AMD and such. This is related. 1. GLD is done. No time for explanations tonight. Went massively long on all out performers Friday AMD (More), AAPL (MORE), CRM (MORE), ADBE (MORE). 2. We are above to start a new Bubble Upwards. People need cash to chase this bubble. AMD goes to $100+ soon. 3. GLD we went short heavily on Friday 10th of January. We are holding short and adding to $120. 4. I had this idea once before, based on fund flows, but I was a couple of weeks early. China signing, and earnings, cheap money, Feb, Trump PUT, and China, USA, and soon Germany Stimulus and Bubble Time. 5. GLD may be SUB $100 before this ends...
AMEX:GLDShort
by drchelsea1
7
GLD - BEARISH ASCENDING WEDGE / PORTFOLIO REBALANCE / SELLOFF1. I don't normally post about Gold, but I will personally be dumping mine tomorrow and buying more AMD and AAPL. Time to chase the real winners, and drop the hedges. 2. Confirmation: - GLD selloff (of course) - TVIX, VXX, UVXY selloff - SMH++ - AMD / MU / TSM ++++ - VIX - Complete Breakdown 3. You can make the GLD negative interest rate argument all day long, and election madness, and Trump whatever, but GOLD is up big this year, and that is exactly what I would dump to chase the MELT UP STARTING TOMORROW. HAPPY NEW YEAR.
AMEX:GLD
by drchelsea1
1
GLD - Perking Up!GLD is starting to perk up and the second of the flag patterns on this bull run looks to be ending and starting the next leg up. Look back to the prior bull run from 2009 to 2011 and you will see 6 such flags (and maybe more). The impulse leg that started this summer and ended in September took out three prior green peaks and over shot the fourth peak (yellow) before consolidating back at the highest of the three green peaks. The impulse leg that appears to be starting now should make it to at least the orange peak before some backing and filling is necessary. To confirm the current impulse leg is legit, I would like to see a close above $143 on GLD. MACD and RSI very favorable. 2020 should be one heck of a ride. Fed on hold and low interest rates should be favorable to gold and other commodities. Inside the metals space I like GDX, SLV. PAAS, and NEM as long term plays. Miners showing solid strength and both PAAS and NEM have been very strong the last month. I would trade NUGT at very overbought and oversold conditions for those that need the extra juice. Outside the space I like RIG and X as log term holds and I also like SIEN and VSTO but the latter two still have to convince me they are legit. I expect big things over the next 12-18 months for these stocks, There are some watchlist items as well including CWH, AOBC, and maybe good old GE and M. Can't predict the future but I much prefer the charts of the names mentioned than those of AMD, AAPL, SMH, and all of its ilk. Only time will tell but a reversion to the mean appears to be upon us and long overdue. Merry Christmas traders!
AMEX:GLDLong
by BobbySpa
2