GLD trade ideas
OPENING: GLD SEPT 20TH 128/130 LONG PUT VERTICAL... for a .21/contract debit. (Late Post)
Metrics:
Max Profit: $179/contract
Max Loss: $21/contract
Break Even: 129.79
Delta/Theta: -6.26/-.43
Notes: Put this on in the closing minutes of Friday's session. Looking for a move back to the short-term range lows ... .
Short for GLD from a rising channel I identified two rising channels developing since August, along side with a smaller one. There was a breakout towards downtrend in the upper channel.
Entry: 142.34
I sold a call credit spread to short the position. Currently, it seems that it is about to break the lower rising channel.
GLD inside bar continuation Looking for a break below the candlestick that is before the inside bar.
There was a nice retrace to the 38.2 fib level and 20 MA. GLD bounced from those levels with 2 solid bear moves, and the volume was solid for both.
If GLD breaks below the low of the 1st candle, I will enter short and possibly take a 2 target trade.
GLD - Daily - Inside bar setupBearish gold fits the narrative right now - the S&P wants to climb.
Technically, GLD made an inside candle bar today. Inside bars can be bearish continuation patterns if the low of the previous candle (the "mother" candle) can be broken. Or, they can be bullish continuation if the high of the previous candle (the "mother" candle) can be broken. In this situation, I'm looking for a bearish continuation. But, I will wait until the low of the mother candle is broken with a close below it.
Fundamentally, this bearish situation makes sense. SPY (S&P ETF) is doing all it can to break the all time high at roughly 302 ... whether SPY can break above and hold it, is yet to be determined. However, like I was saying, a bearish gold scenario fits this story line. When people are excited (risk on) they take their money out of safe haven equities such as gold (risk off), and put it in riskier investments. Traditionally, gold and bonds are the "safe space" for nervous investors. No nervousness = no "safe space" ... and the GLD sell off should continue. Not too mention, gold is up $200 per ounce YTD; it has room to pull back.
Gold Turning Down From Important ResistanceThis is a follow up to my 8/8/19 GLD post. There was expected resistance in the zone around 50% retrace of the last Gold bear market. Gold and the ETF - GLD marginally exceeded the target with significant bearish divergences. Since the peak, daily MACD and Stochastics have had line bear crosses. Daily RSI has a bearish divergence.
If the Elliott wave count illustrated in my 8/8/19 post is correct, GLD has potential to retrace at least the entire rally since the bear market bottom. Gold price could ultimately reach $900 to $1000 zone.
GLD first support zone is in the 130 to 134 area.
Mark