GLD - Get Long Dammit!Well GLD is really in the pivot zone now. Will it just trigger the long order on its own or will it need news, a number or something else? I have a boat load of OTM calls waiting. Stay tuned!
GLD trade ideas
GLD , a bullish gold ETF LongGLD on the 4H chart has downtrended for 2 months. However, the supertrend is that of a
gradual trend up as shown by the green ascending line. The two indicators point to a reversal.
The MACD shows a cross of the K / D lines under a positive histogram and impending cross
over the horizontal zero line. The Chris Moody with dual RSI plots shows the RSI on the
weekly time frame in black to be trending down from 70 and settling at 50. The daily time
frame in blue bottomed at 29 and is now 44. This is a bullish divergence of the RSI as compared
with the price trend. Overall I expect a reversal with a trend up targeting $192 which is the
approximate pivot high of early May also confluent with two standard deviations above
the mean VWAP anchored to 2/1/23. The stop loss is to be set below the ascending support
at $176. Accordingly, a potential loss of $2 until the stop loss is raised to break-even
once price gets to $182.00. After that, the trade will be both risk and stress free.
GLD - Bullish OutlookIntermediate-term formation pattern appears to be a wave extension completing soon followed by a move higher. Looking for stronger support at the 40 week moving average a few points lower but willing to buy a pilot position at this level.
My main GLD position is an Iron Condor option position selling puts at the 165 strike and calls at the 200 strike. Adding shares at this level give some protection should GLD surge above 200 prior to the option position's expiration.
Downside risk appears to be down to the 160 level should the Long Term Reverse Head and Shoulders formation build out. More GLD updates should price break lower.
Gold - War Breaking Out?Many would like to perceive the pause in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve as a bullish take for markets at large. However the forward direction by Powell signals towards the bigger picture; inflation cannot be stopped by the Fed.
March 2022, shortly after the invasion of the Donbas region by Russia the Fed began significant hikes in the Discount rate. See comparaison to SPX.
This has put pressure on domestic and international markets. As foreign central banks try to follow along with hikes to avoid capital outflows, they have not been able to keep up. The international value of the US Dollar has risen considerably since January 2021, the trend accelerating as flight to quality has driven capital towards the US in the face of war. See below US02-year and US10-year treasuries plotted on the same axis, compared to the US Dollar Index.
During this time, the price of gold COMEX:GC1! has made a few rallies towards the 2011 high, relating to geopolitical and sovereign risk.
This price level in gold could prove very significant moving forwards. The market has indicated towards a long-term trend. It should be noted, that entities involved in potential geopolitical conflicts will move assets accordingly in advance.
It is inevitable that war will continue to escalate, and so long as it does inflation will persist across the globe. In spite of capital flows towards the United States, global scarcity driven by shortages, insurance rate increases, impaired logistics and corrupt governments will continue to erode the domestic value of the dollar. The inflation we have been experiencing is war inflation, and no central bank has the power to stop the reactionary shock in financial markets that occurs when capital must seek cover.
There appears to be political turmoil in Russia, but the question unanswered is why? It must be understood, that there is a strong belief in Russia that Putin has been too restrained by only invading the Donbas region. What is being stoked by NATO, is an ethnic conflict. Subtle difference in language and religion separate two relatively new nations, Russia and Ukraine. Kyiv the home of the Russian Orthodox church, established in what was the capital of a greater empire, collapsing in the late 1800s. That is to say, the contested regions in this war are hotbeds for an ethnic conflict. Paramilitary groups in Russia and Ukraine (of which there are many) have quite a well known and gruesome history between them, despite receiving little attention since 2022.
With neither government viewed at large as capable, there is a massive tailwind risk with the US' approach to funding. It seems well established by now there is nobody accountable for how the weapons and munitions being shipped to Ukraine are being handled, and Nazism is rampant in the army. In addition to repeated attempts on Putin's life, the US is now discussing giving Zelensky of Ukraine access to nuclear weapons.
With a "coup" having now taken place, it must be clear that there is a quickly growing threat of war escalating quickly. No attempts at negotiation have been made by Ukraine, despite massive loss of life on both sides. Therein lies our why. Consider the paramilitary groups are now willing to march against Moscow, what prevents them from marching on Kyiv? The negotiation between them has been settled, a new leader appointed and separation from the Russia government is complete. The dogs of hell let loose.
Gold, Silver COMEX:SI1! and mentioned in a previous post, Natural Gas NYMEX:NG1! , are all forming lows after making new major highs. Inflation will persist and push the nominal price of gold up, but capital flows will nullify that effect to NY COMEX gold prices, as AMEX:GLD follows. This market is pushing towards a significant breakout, and this will move the price as global markets respond by moving capital. Gold becomes a target for flight to quality at this time.
Friday was an ideal major low, the market may continue to make minor lows but a sustained rally to 2000 and beyond should be considered a bullish sign.
GLD Bullish Outlook 06/26-30/2023AMEX:GLD is hot on my watch list as uncertainty in the world markets should cause investors to park their money in gold. AMEX:GLD is down -4% for the quarter and is due for a rebound.
Technical Analysis:
AMEX:GLD has been consolidating in a falling wedge and is approaching the .618 retrace at 177.24.
I lean bullish on AMEX:GLD as long as we don’t break the falling wedge structure and can hold above the gap at 176.18. I am expecting a gap fill to the upside at 181.37.
Bears will want to see this falling wedge invalidate with a gap to fill to the downside at 173.80.
Upside Targets: 178.75 → 179.84 → 181.08 → 181.97 → 183.21
Downside Targets: 177.78 → 176.82 → 176.20 → 174.83 → 174.46
🔥 Why A Bitcoin ETF Is Hyper Bullish: See Gold!There's been a lot of bullish news recently surrounding a potential Bitcoin ETF. This ETF has been filed by both Blackrock and Fidelty.
The potential approval of a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) has the crypto community buzzing with excitement. A Bitcoin spot ETF could be a game-changer, fueling bullish momentum across the entire crypto market.
A Bitcoin spot ETF would simplify the investment process, making Bitcoin more accessible to a broader range of investors. It would eliminate barriers like complex wallets and security concerns, attracting retail and institutional players and driving increased adoption.
In order to determine the potential effects on the markets, we can take a look at a more recent approval of a commodity ETF: Gold.
As seen on the chart, Gold saw a massive ~310% gain over the span of 6.5 years once the ETF had been approved. It's hard to determine whether BTC will experience a similar growth path, but I think it's quite safe to assume that it's 100% bullish if more people can easily invest in this asset.
GLD - waiting on move higher, no guarantee it comesGLD sits below like what I like to call the pivot band. Draw the flattest MA possible (nearest to zero slope). For upside trigger, the initial trigger would be the flattest MA of lows. I like to use the MA of lows, then the MA of medians then the MA of highs. If price breaks above the MA of lows and doesn't progress but regresses then the MA of medians would then become the trigger. So I have these MAs on the chart and they are sufficiently proximate to consider a break in the next week or so if they oblige. I'll post similar for other markets I follow. If anyone has a market they are watching, TSLA, NVDA, etc. let me know I'll do similar work up.
BITO, FXE, GLD, TLTThe markets BITO, FXE, GLD, TLT are all under extreme downleg compressions. A resolution or resolution failure could cause an extreme reaction in any or all of these markets. If there is a marked retracement in any of these markets an out of the money call position could offer an exceptional opportunity even if only one of these markets complies, IMHO.
Gold Order Flow - Sell On Bounces After 'Circle' TriggerHey traders,
This is another post that centers around the use of the OFA script to decipher the path of least resistance.
Remember, as OFA traders, we simply let the market show its intent. We don't anticipate, we adapt to the dynamic flows.
Right now, the
GLD
market is sending a strong signal that bulls are in for some pain in days/weeks to come.
Why? Due to the price pattern identified by the script (these are called via 'diamonds' and 'circles').
The current formation of decreasing buy-side pressure followed by increasing sell-side is top-notch.
This type of realized order flow hints at a much lower target, with an ultimate objective of 168.00.
An entry around the 50% retracement is ideal to get you off to a great start. The risk-reward prospect is terrific (at least 3:1)
Remember, when using the OFA script, it comes with highly accurate signals that, at its core, apply 2 main areas of study:
Magnitude: A major clue that will help determine the health of a trend is the type of progress by the dominant side in control of the trend. We need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the active buy-sell side campaign as identified by the script increasing or decreasing in magnitude?
Velocity: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
