MARA: Second ChanceMy previous trade idea on MARA followed the accumulation of the lows below $10 when this stock was totally undervalued. I was buying to sell into the ETF news, which lined up perfectly with my BTC prediction approaching 48-50k. That trade resulted in a profit of 300% and our next opportunity is likely approaching as the Bitcoin Halving will occur in April.
Ive since sold my MARA position but I will start accumulating this stock again as price retraces.
There will be 2 BASIC indicators that I will use to predict where the bottom of this retracement will be.
1) The traditional Fibonacci retracement from the bottom of the range, to the top of the move. We will be using the Golden Pocket CC .618 as a base case and look for confluence at that level. To my expectation, this range lines up with a GAP that MARA failed to close, before rallying over 100%. My previous idea was based on the fact that GAPS must be filled once a direction is chosen. This will be no different.
2) The overall strength of the Market, in particular Bitcoin. I will be looking for a retracement on BTC to at least the $30k-$32k level, which was the previous massive range resistance, and should now be treated as support. If we break this level, we will very likely be looking at lower prices and this trade will be invalidated / look for lower prices.
I do believe that we will see a several week accumulation period in the spring, which may last in to the summer until BTC potentially begins its post halving rally in the fall / winter of 2024.
It will be important to watch the RSI on the daily time frame. If we break into new lower ranges, but the RSI fails to generate new lows, you can use this as a sign that the bottom is near.
My target will be between $12-$13.
If we do see further downside towards the previous range point of control at approx $9-$10, this would be a load the boat situation to average in.
Lets Go MARA!
Good Luck!
