Long LVMH (Tecnical analysis)We plot the upward trendline from several years ago along with the key area where the last negative candle was left before it quickly rose.
MC/N trade ideas
Analysis: LVMH Misses Third-Quarter Revenue ExpectationsOverview: LVMH, the world's largest luxury-goods company, reported lower-than-expected third-quarter revenue.
The company's organic revenue fell 3% to €19.08 billion, missing analysts' forecasts of €19.94 billion. This decline was primarily driven by weaker demand in China and a broader slowdown in the luxury sector.
Key Factors:
China's Economic Slowdown: China, once a growth engine for the luxury sector, has become a significant challenge. The country's economic malaise, marked by a sluggish real-estate sector and uncertain economic outlook, has led to reduced consumer spending on luxury goods.
Performance by Division: LVMH's core fashion and leather-goods division, which includes high-end brands like Louis Vuitton and Dior, saw a 5% decline in organic revenue. The wines and spirits business, which includes Hennessy cognac and Moet & Chandon champagne, experienced a 7% drop in organic revenue.
Regional Performance: Sales in LVMH's Asian market, dominated by China, fell 16% in the third quarter. In contrast, Japan saw a 20% increase in organic revenue, although this was a slowdown from the previous quarter's 57% growth rate.
Western Markets: In the U.S., LVMH's organic revenue was flat, while Europe saw a 2% increase. Western consumers, especially the less affluent, have been cutting back on luxury purchases due to continued price increases and a weaker economic backdrop.
Outlook: Despite the challenges, some investors remain hopeful that China's economic-stimulus plans could lead to a recovery in the luxury market. However, analysts caution that it is too early to see the effects of these measures. EURONEXT:MC
Recommendation: Hold
Given the current economic uncertainties and the mixed performance across different regions and divisions, it is prudent to hold LVMH shares for now. While there are potential recovery signs in China and Japan, the broader luxury sector's slowdown and ongoing economic challenges suggest a cautious approach.
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LVMH more upsideABC retracement complete. Entered the trade at 622€. I expect new highs (over 40% upside potential)
Time for a reversal?China stimulus has been announced, not the biggest bumper package but one that can bring some relief to the beaten up luxury sector that is dependent on the Chinese consumer.
No better place to look than LVMH. Whilst the their products never go on sale, their stock price is down over 30%. This is the most valuable European company, alongside the likes of Novo Nordisk and ASML.
I had traded this short (see my previous analysis) to great success and closed my position yesterday in anticipation of the stimulus after rumors were circulating about the possibility.
I think now is also a good time to consider longs for a relief rally. Only time will tell if it’s sustainable but I believe as a longer term investor this company will perform well in the long mid to long term and it’s one you can confidently DCA down in the event of a black swan crash.
Do your own research, not financial advice.
LVMH: New horizons in sight!The LVMH stock is undergoing a correction phase, with the possibility of further declines into the €560 - €525 support zone. This level is marked as a strong long-term buy opportunity for investors, and price recovery is expected from this zone. Should this correction unfold as anticipated, the stock could rally to €624 and beyond, with potential targets at €733 and €900+ in the longer term.
The €560 - €525 zone represents a key area of interest for long-term positions. This zone is supported by the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and historical price action, making it a high-probability level where buyers are likely to step in.
This area is highlighted as the "Best Long-Term Buy Zone", offering an ideal entry point for those looking to accumulate LVMH shares for a potential rebound.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
I look forward to reading your thoughts.
Best regards,
Mattner
No investment advice
Louis Vuitton Long trade ideaIm planning to long the Louis Vuitton
Entry: 652.59 Stop Loss: 572.87 Take Profit: 731.95
LVMH: Bullish: Butterfly detected.LVMH: Bullish: Butterfly detected.
The price could go down to the PRZ zone indicated on the right chart: 512 to start, then 388 if the Double top plays its role.
This will therefore be a very interesting entry point for investors.
Below: Some information about LVMH.
LVMH (Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy) is today the world leader in luxury and one of the largest French companies. Here’s a look at where LVMH stands today:
Recent Financial Performance
LVMH recently announced its third-quarter 2023 results, which missed analysts’ expectations
This announcement caused a significant drop in the stock price, which is down more than 20% from its record highs
Market Position
Despite these mixed results, LVMH remains the world’s largest luxury company, with a portfolio of iconic brands including Louis Vuitton, Dior, Givenchy, Kenzo, Moët & Chandon and many others
Structure and Values
LVMH is a family-owned group founded in 1987. Its primary mission is to ensure the long-term development of each of its houses, while preserving their identity and autonomy. The group emphasizes creativity, innovation and excellence in all its products and services. Corporate Strategy
LVMH's strategy is based on the vertical integration of its value chain, from raw material sourcing to selective distribution. This approach aims to ensure the excellence and sustainability of its products.
Social and Environmental Responsibility
LVMH is increasingly committed to ethical, social and environmental initiatives. The group places emphasis on adopting and promoting honest behavior in all its actions and relationships.
Future Outlook
Despite recent challenges, LVMH remains a solid company with long-term growth potential. , like any company in the luxury sector, it is sensitive to global economic fluctuations and changes in consumer habits.
MC LVMH - Louis Voutton - DONT MISS IT - Long/buy IdeaDear traders,
Id like to share this idea in order to take long positions, basically the price has already rebounded from 610, it is in a long term bullish correction patterm.
In my humble opinion, it is a good option taking a buying position now, there is too much correlation with China as more than 30% of LVMH earnings come from this region and latelly chinese markets have shown a litte improvement therefore would be good for LVMH (Pay attention in the next quaterly earnings figures :) )
Additionally Macd already crossed over in a very oversold area which is a nice signal to reinforce this buying idea.
best,
LVMH - further drop incoming?Luxury brands have been all dropped off hard. Burberry fell off a cliff, Estée Lauder has been in a free fall. Chinese customers not spending as much. Alcohol sales also slowing which contributed to LVMH posted disappointing earnings.
So why hasn’t it dropped so much? We are being held up by a strong weekly level of support and the golden Fibonacci ration, this is the last line of support before we break the neckline and head down further, confirming the double top M pattern.
Targets to the downside? Possible gap fill below, I doubt it reaches that low. But if it does, not a bad place to enter for a long term investment.
Not financial advice. Do what’s best for you
LVMH Posts Solid Results Amidst Economic UncertaintyLuxury goods giant LVMH has reported robust first-half results, with revenue climbing 2% on an organic basis to €41.7bn. Despite a challenging economic and geopolitical backdrop, the group demonstrated its resilience, driven by the enduring appeal of its high-end brands.
Operating profit reached €10.7bn, representing a healthy operating margin of 25.6%, significantly exceeding pre-pandemic levels. However, the group cautioned that exchange rate fluctuations had a substantial negative impact on the period.
Europe and the US delivered growth, while Japan experienced a stellar performance, buoyed by a surge in Chinese tourists. The group's fashion and leather goods division, anchored by powerhouse brands Louis Vuitton and Christian Dior, continued to perform strongly.
While the wines and spirits arm faced headwinds from a normalising post-Covid demand environment, particularly in cognac, the group's perfumes and cosmetics division thrived, driven by the success of flagship brands and innovative product launches.
The watches and jewellery division encountered challenges, with revenue declining 3% organically due in part to unfavourable exchange rates. Nevertheless, the group maintained its focus on innovation and store refurbishment.
LVMH's selective retailing business, spearheaded by Sephora, continued to impress with strong growth and market share gains. The group's travel retail arm, DFS, remained under pressure from subdued international travel.
Bernard Arnault, LVMH Chairman and CEO, expressed satisfaction with the results, highlighting the group's ability to navigate a complex environment. He reiterated the company's commitment to product excellence and retail expertise as it seeks to reinforce its global leadership position in luxury goods.
The group declared an interim dividend of €5.50 per share.
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TL;DR
Revenue growth: Overall revenue grew 2% organically.
Profitability: Operating margin remained exceptionally high at 25.6%.
Regional performance: Europe and the US saw growth, while Japan experienced double-digit growth driven by Chinese tourists.
Divisional performance:
Wines & Spirits: Declined due to normalization of post-Covid demand and weak Chinese market.
Fashion & Leather Goods: Continued growth with strong performance from Louis Vuitton and Christian Dior.
Perfumes & Cosmetics: Solid growth driven by flagship brands and new product launches.
Watches & Jewelry: Declined due to exchange rate fluctuations, but maintained strong innovation.
Selective Retailing: Sephora continued to excel, while DFS remained challenged.
Economic uncertainty: The group faced a challenging economic and geopolitical environment.
Exchange rate fluctuations: Had a negative impact on the financial results.
Outlook:
LVMH remains confident in its ability to maintain its leadership position in the luxury goods market through continued focus on product desirability, exceptional quality, and strong retail execution.
LVMH (ticker:MC) starting consolidation, before going 900+ ?LVMH (MC ticker! EUR based) in multi-decade uptrend, nice upside momentum overall.
Overall I do have one "bearish" scenario, however the probabilites for that are quiet low as of now, so far therefore not tracking.
I would say the two big "bullish" scenario, soon nearing a local top and I would primarly expect a consolidation/correction, before going likely to at least 900+
Overall the white one have would gave us a bigger correction, while the yellow one would give a somewhat smaller correction before going up to finish up the big ABC pattern to finish off yellow wave (3)
So far we are just above the 200day MA, BUT below the 50/52, and also so far the 9day/21 day EMA/SMA rejecting price action. Also from the top I can count 5 waves down, which is suggesting and overall correction likely to continue. This so far also supported by the weekly RSI and volume actions, with growing momentum to the downside.
Therefore I would expect primarly the yellow route (60%) against the white one (40%). This would mean:
near term - bearish
short term - bearish/neutral shifting slightly to bearish
mid term - bullish
long term - overall bullish
LVMHF - louis vuitton - LongDear traders,
Id like to share this idea in order to take long positions. It is in a long term up-trend and I want to take advantage of the corrections to buy.
daily MACD alreday crossed over and RSI got oversold area.
best,
LVMH Buy at 720Waiting the price to reach 720 before buying, clear setup in place, liquidity target and instit level 1000.
LVHM owns Sephora: Developing patternFundamentals:
Buffett check stock ~
Do you like to consume LVMH and/or Sephora? If so, why not own the stock? LVMH owns Sephora so it is a double whammy. This is not a normal super stock that I like to buy. It consists of a different strategy with a bit of a Warren Buffet blend. We are looking at 3-year growth, yearly EPS, sustainability of growth and ROE. LVHM fits this bill.
Technicals:
Cup-with-handle pattern within stage 3 ichi development.
pb to 50% in the cloud
a-b-c extension with a pullback to "X"
5emas pb strategy + 1st pb of new trend
spinning top/harami candle pattern with high volume at support
entry: 175
target: 220 to 250
stop loss watch: price closing back below 155.
MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON $OTC:LVMHF - Mar. 13th, 2024MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON OTC:LVMHF MIL:1MC - Mar. 13th, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $939.75 - $1,000.00
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $896.00 - $939.75 (can be extended for $875.00 - $939.75)
SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $821.50 - $896.00 (can be shortened for $821.50 - $875.00)
Weekly: Bullish
Daily: Bullish
4H: Bullish
I labeled the end of the most recent bearish trend and the start of the current bullish trend. OTC:LVMHF price has remained strongly bullish for weeks and is pushing towards the $1,000.00 level and all time highs. For those who like to trade patterns/shapes, zooming out can show a large V-shape pattern on the weekly timeframe.
The DNT area goes for two levels as a safer bet and confirmation if price reverses. The DNT zone can be extended to be even safer down to the $875.00 level, which makes the bearish entries less risky.
As shown, the bearish entry is aggressive, but not necessarily somewhere I'd look to initially enter any shorts.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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LVMH Investment Opportunity (Short)Risky trade on LVMH which is bullish in long terme, I can potentially see a wyckoff in place, with liquidity take and and a brake of structure on left side and also now internally in daily timeframe after last days economic news, this is why i think it's interesting to take trade targeting first green line (demand zone) on which bullish orders where place and eventually second target line.
LVMH Best time to buy is now.Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMH) recently broke below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and this is the most optimal buy opportunity for the long-term as following the 1D Golden Cross, a Channel Up is emerging.
This appears to be so far similar to the Channel Up of October 2022 - April 2023, which led the stock to its All Time High (ATH) at the time. Both sequences seem identical as they both started after a -30% decline with a 1D Death Cross, then found bottom and started the Accumulation process for a Double Bottom buy opportunity, which led to the eventual Channel Up.
That past Channel Up peaked just below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we see a huge buy opportunity towards the end of the summer with our Target being $1150 (just below the 1.5 Fib ext).
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LVMH: Bearish according ICHIMOKU 714 is possibleLVMH is on a polarity zone
the price could go down to 714
confirmation with “Tenkan” (Weekly) and “Kijun” (Daily) thanks to ICHIMOKU
Then the market could go down to €685 (Doji), then rebound and go back up to find the gaps above
or 2nd scenario:
the market could rise and seek to increase the gap of 854
and complete the harmonic figure “BAT”
and go back down to the 714
an options strategy "purchase of PUT" is possible slightly on this position or wait for the gap of 854
Is this the big bad turn for LVMH?LVMH has had one heck of a run from $39 in 2009 up to $996 in 2023.
But since April 2023, it just has NOT been able to break that $1,000 psychological mark.
And since the beginning of last year, we've seen it form a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern.
Now I am not a total bear yet. We do need the price to break below the neckline before we get all excited about the short.
But until then it's a patience game. We also have other indicators showing potential downside to come including:
Price<200
20>7
RSI<50
Target $412
Let's see how it plays out, cause this could make a change any week now.
LVMH - Bearish Wolve Wave in the D+1 Chart?Since the ATH LVMH has been decreased round about 20%. From the Fibonacci point of view, we have a classical 50% consolidation. The consolidation pattern is includes a Wolve pattern where the 5 is made and we now have to observed the activation of the pattern. If active, 10% potential is possible. The APEX is in the middle of October.
A movement to the top is possible, the RSI is close to oversold.
LVMH (MC) -> Buy The Stock Right Herey name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitaliz e on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on LVMH.
For the past 7 years LVMH stock has been trading in a decent rising channel and just recently retested and rejected the upper resistance trendline at the psychological 900€ level.
Also considering that this is a simple break and retest of the previous all time high from January I am just waiting for bullish confirmation before I think that another push higher will occur.
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I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
