MSTRmwsmotorsports The May 12th purchase was the first purchase using funds from the 2nd "21/21" plan. The total funds raised that week was just over $1.34B. Of that amount, $25.1M was raised from the STRK ATM and the remaining $1.31B was from the common share ATM. That means over 3.2M new shares were sold that week at the market by Saylor.
If a short seller had sold 3.2M shares in a single week, shareholders would be crying to high-heaven about "shorts are wrecking our stock" and "get shorty" catcalls would be everywhere. But Saylor did it with hardly a whimper from shareholders. Any concerns were loudly shouted down by the Saylor cult fanclub.
Each week thereafter, Saylor continued to sell the stock short with heavy ATM sales to buy BTC, totaling around $3B worth by the end of July. That, coupled with the new high-dividend STRx series issued during the same period, has put incredible pressure on the mNAV.
Since November of last year, Saylor has ramped up the speed of issuance, the amount of dilution and amount of new debt offerings exponentially. I'm sure he has been wanting to strike while the iron (BTC) is hot, but all those poundings have resulted in a flattening of the stock.
The BTC hoard has doubled, but shareholders are spinning their wheels on the returns they are seeing.
Sometimes less is more. Saylor initially gave a timeline of 12 months to complete the first "21/21 plan". They completed it in 2 months or less. The next plan announced was supposed to take place over 12 months, but they are well ahead of schedule on it too. As a result, Saylor has clearly exceeded what the absorption rate of the market can withstand without effecting shareholder return on investment.
I've said on here several times that Saylor is acting like a crack head desperate to get his next bump. He preaches a disciplined approach, but his actions tell a different story. That's textbook addiction behavior. In this case, the addiction is the rush of adding to the hoard and damn the torpedoes.
MSTR So, Logman, you sound like me when I talk about MSTR and MSTY, But.. in spite of the sentiment degradation we both think MSTR has now, it was cooking along just fine all April, even after the bad April earnings and the lawsuits piling up. Very specifically, on May 12, it turned south, as BTC trended up and never recovered its mojo. What do we think about "that" timeframe that is special? What news? Announcement? Economic Event? That... I cannot figure out. It would seem that sentiment would erode slowly over time, Not just flip like a switch, with zero news.
MSTR One final thought on a contributing cause as to why MSTR has underperformed lately: Retail shareholders in MSTR are not exactly the same type of diamond hands that hodl bitcoin directly. MSTR shareholders tend to be looking to MSTR as shortcut to "catch up" their returns to what they would have been if they had owned BTC directly a few years earlier.
It's a bit rich for Saylor to post on X over the weekend to HODL and look toward what huge gains the future has in store, when his own directors and management team have been actively selling the stock this year. He should compose his call to action as an internal email before chastising retail shareholders.
When MSTR has an mNAV under 2.0 (caused in part by past heavy dilution), retail investors see other products like BITX with 2x BTC exposure plus monthly dividends as a kicker.
MSTR has barely managed to breakeven the last 90 days while the rest of the market has been on fire, with names like COIN and NVDA up over 75% during the same period. So I think the fast money crowd has taken flight and chasing the latest darling stocks. MSTR may have its day in the sun again eventually and those same investors will come flooding back.
Or it may not. MSTR truly is at an inflection point due to new tax obligations, new high capital costs, and an impatient retail investor base.
MSTRmwsmotorsports I do think it makes sense that the various STRx products Saylor has introduced is overlapping with MSTR common somewhat and taking buyers away. You yourself are a good example: If not for MSTY, you'd be more likely to own shares in the common.
MSTY of course is its own hybrid that performs best when MSTR stays within a defined range, oscillating up and down without breaking out. MSTY collects income by selling covered calls and keeps the call premium if MSTR doesn't rally too much. Excess premiums earned are returned to investors monthly. By law the ETF must return a minimum of 90% of income generated each month to investors in order to maintain their ETF tax status. All ETFs fall under that guideline.
MSTY offers little in the way of downside protection, only cushioned by the call premiums collected. Conversely, its upside is very limited due to the upside cap of the covered calls written.
MSTY's share price, by design, is going to significantly underperform MSTR during strong periods for MSTR. I'm not sure I've seen it trade above $30 in the last 12 months ever. It has mostly been range bound between $20 - $25, with the price resetting at each monthly dividend payout.
The higher the volatility in MSTR, the higher the call premiums MSTY can collect, especially when the stock stays rangebound.
The problem is that a great deal of volatility has come out of MSTR in the last 6 months, which has hurt MSTY returns as compared to the prior 6 month period. Lower volatility means lower premiums on the calls they sell, which has been reflected each month in their recent dividend payouts.
For maximum income generation potential, MSTY needs MSTR to thrash around violently in place like a fish out of water, not take off like a rocket or fall off a cliff.
Owning shares in MSTY is actually a bet that MSTR will underperform BTC over the long term and it will behave violently in the process (large up/down swings) yet return to near the baseline for the month before call expiration. That is when maximum income is generated.
MSTR mwsmotorsports The May 12th purchase was the first purchase using funds from the 2nd "21/21" plan. The total funds raised that week was just over $1.34B. Of that amount, $25.1M was raised from the STRK ATM and the remaining $1.31B was from the common share ATM. That means over 3.2M new shares were sold that week at the market by Saylor. 
