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NOVAVAX, INCNN

NOVAVAX, INC

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NVAX trade ideas

What to do with Novavax nowElliot wave suggests downward momentum for the past two years, and yesterday NVAX investors got their hearts crushed. Where can it go from here? Based on yesterdays market activity, I see it headed towards the 1.618 retracement regardless of upward or doward movement. so, if it heads further south we could see high 80s but under a dollar, and if demand increases it would head towards about 2.08. So in other words, it could lose about, say 30-40 more cents but has the potential to rise close to double that at 2.08. In fact, I'd say it's likely to rise to about 2 to stay within LT S/R/. Let me know your thoughts!
NLong
by matt.sulli42
NVAX TRADE UPDATEI figured I'd clean up this setup a little bit on the chart to show what's going on with this trade a little more clearly, since we're running into opex, and I'll have to do something with it here shortly. I also for mapping out what I'm going to do if price does certain things relative to my cost basis and original stock purchase price. The trade originally started out as a "Plain Jane" covered call, where I bought shares at 7.54 and sold the Sept 16th 8 call for something like a 6.39 debit (so my cost basis in the shares at that point was 6.39/share). I proceeded to sell the Sept 16th 5 short put to further reduce cost basis in my shares, as well as to sell some premium in this unusually high implied volatility underlying (I filled the short put for an additional .67 ($67)/contract credit. When, after all, can you get >$50/contract credit for a somewhat far out-of-the-money short put in an <$10 underlying -- rarely. After selling the put, my cost basis in the shares would be 6.39 minus .67 or 5.72/share. Currently, the 8 short call is valued at .72 ($72) (it was originally $115), and the short put is valued at .25 ($25) (originally, $67). Rolling into expiry, I'm looking to take the short put off at near maximum profit (.05 or less). If price finishes above $8 at expiry, my shares will be called away at $8, and I'll be out of the trade. However, what should I do if price either finishes (a) between my stock purchase price and the short call or (b) price finishes below my stock purchase price, but above my original cost basis for the covered call (6.93/share)? If price finishes "between", I'm likely to just treat the trade from that point forward as a straight "speculative long" stock play and set a stop loss for my shares at break even and then let the trade ride. The reason why I would probably not continue to sell calls against and set a stop loss on the stock is to avoid the scenario where I would get stopped out on the stock and have a naked speculative short call hanging out there which could get painful if price whips higher on news (which is due out sometime in the 4th quarter and most likely at a presentation NVAX is going to give in mid-October). If price finishes lower than what I paid for the stock originally, but above my cost basis for the original covered call, I'm likely to just close it entirely out, having made profit on the short put and on the covered call setup ... .
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by NaughtyPines
6
TRADE IDEA: NVAX COVERED CALLI'm already in a similar trade, but NVAX keeps on giving with high implied volatility rank and high implied volatility. Metrics: Buy shares at 6.99 Sell Oct 21st 7 call 5.10 db at the mid (off hours; it may naturally look a touch different at NY open) $190 max profit if called away at $7 (a ridiculous profit figure for a $7 underlying) ROC: 37.3% Alternative: Look to just sell premium using the Oct 21st expiry. For example, the 5 short put is currently bid .75/ask 1.15. Even the bid ($75) is stupid rich premium here ... .
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by NaughtyPines
For Risk Tolerant InvestorsNVAX got Fast-tracked for its RSV vaccine. Currently theres no approved vaccine. NVAX has been an a bullish run ever since and I was unable to catch it at $4.50. I hope that the stock will retrace to .5 FIB and find support at the 100 Simple Moving Average before the start of the the 3rd quarter. If it does I will be looking to buy NVAX at this level because some time in the 3rd quarter is when NVAX will announce its RSV prevention vaccine Phase 3 results. This announcement could soar the stock to 17 by middle of 2017 and it will definetly send it past its all time highs of $15; it could also send the stock tumbling if it fails,. As a result, if NVAX can get to the lowers levels, I will do the math to see if Call Options would be less risky than actually owing the stock because if the news comes back negative I believe NVAX will tank to below $1.50. This gap depending on the amount of shares may be more risk than the money put down on some Jan17 Out-of-the-Money Calls that go to zero. Some NVAX Jan17 10 Calls will probably be selling for .35 to .55 if the pullback occurs and if the news was bullish those contract prices would quadruple instantly. You could then sell them or own the stock. I would probably own the stock and sell out-of-the-money calls for the rest of my life to pay my rent as NVAX finds support at $15....LOL
NLong
by the_get_man
1
TRADE IDEA: NVX COVERED CALLThanks to TheBanker and the Biopharma chat room for spotting this one ... . A little bit of research on its implied volatility percentage, and voila, a diamond in the rough, premium selling play ... . Metrics: 100 Shares at 7.56 Sell Aug 19th 8 short call Whole Package: $620 debit (6.20 will be your cost basis in the shares) Max Profit: $170 if called away at $8/share or about at 27% ROC Naturally, this isn't ideal, since the bottom it put in was way below here. Because of that, I'm doing this small, just in case their Phase III RSV trial doesn't turn out as stellar as hoped ... .
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by NaughtyPines