Bubble territory All bubbles look the same, the US economy is holding by this one thread called NVIDIA... This chart looks exactly like BTC in 2018. See my post.
NVDA trade ideas
NVDA Bear/Bull tomorrow 8/20/2024NVIDIA (NVDA) recently reported strong earnings for Q2 2024, achieving record revenues of $30.0 billion, up 122% year-over-year. Despite these impressive figures, the stock has faced significant volatility, reflecting a complex market reaction that has disappointed many investors.
Market Reaction and NVDA's Position:
Price Action: After the earnings report, NVDA experienced a notable drop, which suggests that while the financial results were robust, the market may have priced in high expectations. The stock's decline indicates that traders might have been looking for even more optimistic guidance or perhaps were cautious due to the broader market environment.
Trend and Technical Analysis: On the 1-hour chart, NVDA shows a clear downtrend, marked by lower highs and lower lows. The stock has fallen below key support levels, with $123.09 and $118.15 being critical points to watch. The current price action suggests a bearish sentiment in the short term, with the possibility of further downside if it breaches the next support at $114.94.
Support and Resistance: The upper resistance around $136.20 and $131.26 could serve as significant hurdles if NVDA attempts a recovery. If the stock continues to struggle below these levels, it may indicate persistent selling pressure.
Volume and Momentum: The declining momentum and trading volume further confirm the bearish outlook. If the stock does not find support at the current levels, it could test lower supports, with $97.16 and $90.78 as possible targets.
*Despite the recent decline, NVDA remains a leader in the tech sector, especially in AI and data centers. The long-term growth potential is still intact, and the current dip could present a buying opportunity for those with a long-term horizon.
*For short-term traders, it's essential to be cautious due to the stock's volatility. The upcoming long weekend (Labor Day) could lead to lower liquidity, which might exacerbate price swings. It's advisable to set strict stop-loss orders and be mindful of potential market gaps when trading resumes after the holiday.
Overall, while the short-term outlook for NVDA seems challenging, the company's strong fundamentals and leadership position in key growth areas like AI suggest that the current pullback could be a temporary reaction, offering opportunities for disciplined traders.
THE NVDA THESISUsing the 1hr Time Frame, There is a head and shoulders pattern forming in the channel. The measured move can take NASDAQ:NVDA to 167ish if and when the breakout happens. The buy zone is between 104 and 109 where we have a couple of VPOC resting.
$NVDA - This is what I thinkNASDAQ:NVDA I bought a small starter position today, even though I mentioned that the ideal entry would be around the $95 area. I know, I committed a sin. Instead of waiting for it to come to me, I caught it in midair. 😂 Hopefully, the stock gods can find it in their hearts to forgive me.
Anyway, I’m watching the VWAP and trendline closely for a potential reversal.
On the other hand, if it breaks out from that broadening wedge, it could head to the $154 area.
With a $50 billion buyback in play, I don’t think it will get to the $95 area unless the macro environment deteriorates.
Targets:
$130
$140
$154
Supports:
$117
$109
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I’m not suggesting anyone follow my trades. You do you.
NVIDIA to $180Overview
It's a good mindset to be skeptical about a bull market that doesn't seem like it should exist. The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has declined for a second consecutive quarter to a 24 month low and the Civilian Unemployment Rate is the highest it's been since Nov 2021. This leads me to believe that the current rally is being mostly fueled by two factors surrounding artificial intelligence: hype and revenue. NASDAQ:NVDA is the leading A.I. developer and hasn't experienced a decrease in quarterly revenue since November 2022.
When faced with the unknown -- which in this case would be the direction of the stock market -- people cling to what they know. I believe this will present itself in more clearly defined trading patterns and price-swing predictability.
Technicals
NVDA is setting up a pattern that resembles the 5 Elliott Impulse Waves with each wave taking between 3-4 months to develop. If accurate, the trough of the 4th wave could find the share price in the proximity of $100-115.
I utilized Fibonacci levels against the low of the 2nd wave to the high of the 3rd wave. In addition to helping find a support level for the 4th wave, the uptrend Fibonacci tool also provided a projected price target near $180. I compared the 1.618 (161.8%) micro-Fibonacci retracement to the 1.618 macro-Fibonacci retracement, which consumes the entirety of the already existing patterns.
I took the difference of $18.19 between the projected 1.618 Fib levels then created a low and high range where I believe the 5th wave will peak. I ended my projection at this point, however, it is worth noting that impulse waves are followed by correction waves which serve in the opposite trending direction.
NVDA August 29, 2024: Pulling back to MA-50On August 29, 2024, after earnings, NASDAQ:NVDA pre-market is pulling back to its MA-50 and I think it is a valid buy point here.
As long as the price will trade above the MA-50 the trade can be considered working well.
The stop loss can be placed 2-3% below the MA-50.
$NVDA Bull Pennant or Bear Pennant in Disguise?NASDAQ:NVDA
This market is on AI "crack" and "hopium", disconnected from the reality of a declining labor market, ATH personal credit card defaults, and declining consumers who can't even afford to shop at the dollar general anymore.
Let's see how this crowded trade plays out.
1) Will China invade Taiwan and take NVDA down?
2) Will November elections prove to be the lynchpin for a bear market?
3) Will the FED just fire up the printer and BRRRRRRRRRR all the problems away with QE.
4) Will Buffet go ALL IN on NASDAQ:NVDA and drag retail traders along (LOL!).
Stay tuned!!!
NOTE: Not Trading or Investment Advice.
Triangle pattern in NVDAMy favorite triangle pattern in NVDA. In short term it should fall to around $107. If it starts increasing from here, we should see this reaching the peak of triangle, which is around $140.
Watch out at around $107 level.
Short NVIDIA. -80% within 12-16 months.Clear bubble price chart. Price always correct 80%. This time won't be different.
NVIDIA employees buying green lambos.
Study CISCO in the dotcom bubble.
This time won't be different.
Stop at ALL TIME HIGH and will reload higher.
2025 will be a recession.
$NVDA after earnings insights #NVDA has been a hot topic with the recent tech boom. This stock has recently seen several earnings reports of massive growth over the last few quarters and this earnings session was no different in my opinion. NVDA beat on every category and initiated a stock buy back! i think the market was just expecting more and the sell off will be temporary.
In this video I breakdown my outlook on NVDA and set expectations moving forward. i think we need to give it some room to work but there is opportunity. Im overall bullish on NVDA but i have a bearish back up plan going into September. Stay tuned for how we will probably end up making money both ways on this stock.
NVDA has pulled back for us to continue going LONG I have wanted to post a sell before earnings call but decided not to. Because if I'm wrong and the stock soar after earnings, some of you might have taken profit and miss the bull run. So I waited for earnings to post my analysis. Price has actually pulled back into $116 yesterday after earnings report. Now we continue the bull run. NASDAQ:NVDA
All analysis that I posted have been on point. Don't sleep on this one.
NVDA has good measured potential above last week's highs.NASDAQ:NVDA has room on the daily chart to about $135 if it can build above the highs from Friday and Thursday of last week. With earnings on Wednesday at 4:20 PM EDT, there should be significant opportunities to the long side if price continues to build above the daily 50 SMA. Equity was added long into the daily 9 EMA, and retest of the recent dark pool at $122.80, and I continue to swing long with targets at weekly highs and the daily upper Bollinger Band.
NVDA has a demand zone at the rising daily 5 SMA.NASDAQ:NVDA daily rising 5 SMA will be a potential demand zone tomorrow. I will be watching NVDA to hold this area for a long entry intraday. If NVDA loses this area, there is room back down to the daily 50 SMA, which is a major potential demand zone. This may provide an intraday short opportunity under today's low into these demand zones, and the ability to add equity long for a swing if these demand zones hold.
Fundamental Narrative Remains IntactOur analysis indicates that any pullback in NVIDIA's stock is likely to be brief, provided the fundamental narrative remains intact.
Wishing everyone here good luckOn to the next chapter of investments. Farewell NVDA, was a good ride! This is one of my favorite stocks hate to see you go.
Lets go 2015 and 2022 gang. keep it up! dont stop!
A Dilemma: Do Stock prices moves Options or Vice Versa???This interesting question touches on the complex relationship between stock prices and option prices. Let's break down this dilemma:
1. The theoretical relationship:
In theory, stock prices drive option prices. Options are derivatives, meaning their value is derived from the underlying asset (in this case, the stock). The Black-Scholes model and other option pricing models use the stock price as an input to calculate option values.
2. The practical reality:
In practice, the relationship can become more complex, especially in the short term. There are scenarios where options trading can influence stock prices, creating a feedback loop.
3. How options can influence stocks:
- Delta hedging: Market makers who sell options often hedge their positions by buying or selling the underlying stock. This can create buying or selling pressure on the stock.
- Large option positions: Significant option volumes can signal bullish or bearish sentiment, potentially influencing trader behavior in the stock market.
- Pinning: As expiration approaches, there can be forces that "pin" a stock to a particular option strike price due to hedging activities.
4. The max pain theory:
This theory suggests that option trading can influence stock prices, particularly near expiration, pulling the stock price toward the maximum pain point.
5. Short-term vs. long-term effects:
While options can influence stock prices in the short term, fundamental factors (like earnings, economic conditions, etc.) tend to dominate in the longer term.
6. Market efficiency considerations:
In highly liquid markets, any predictable influence of options on stocks should, in theory, be quickly arbitraged away. However, markets aren't always perfectly efficient.
7. Regulatory perspective:
Regulators are aware of potential market manipulation through options and monitor for such activities.
In conclusion, while the primary relationship is stock prices influencing option prices, there can be feedback effects where options trading influences stock prices, especially in the short term. This creates a complex, interconnected system that traders and analysts must navigate carefully.
Max Pain theory in options trading is an interesting concept. Here's a concise overview:
Max Pain refers to the strike price where option buyers (collectively) would experience the maximum financial pain, or loss, at expiration. Conversely, it's the price at which option sellers would profit the most.
Key points:
1. It's based on the idea that option sellers (often market makers) try to manipulate the underlying asset's price toward maximum pain.
2. Calculated by determining the price at which the value of all outstanding options would be minimized.
3. Used by some traders to predict where a stock's price might gravitate as expiration approaches.
Max Pain theory is controversial. While some traders swear by it, others are skeptical of its predictive power. It's important to note that many factors influence stock prices, and Max Pain is just one potential consideration.
NVDA:
Total open interest: 28.4 million contract
while SPX, SPY, QQQ, IWm, and TSLA's open interest is: 21,20.5,13.5,6.9 million respectively.
Total open interest is an important metric in options and futures trading. Here's a concise overview:
1. Definition:
Total open interest refers to the total number of outstanding contracts (options or futures) that have not been settled or closed.
2. Calculation:
It's the sum of all open positions across all strike prices and expiration dates for a particular underlying asset.
3. Significance:
- Market activity indicator: Higher open interest generally indicates more active and liquid markets.
- Trend confirmation: Increasing open interest can confirm the strength of a price trend.
4. Interpretation:
- Rising open interest + rising prices: Often indicates a bullish trend.
- Rising open interest + falling prices: Often indicates a bearish trend.
- Falling open interest: May suggest a weakening of the current trend.
5. Contrasts with volume:
- Volume measures the number of contracts traded in a given period.
- Open interest represents the number of active contracts at a point in time.
6. Uses:
- Assessing market sentiment
- Gauging the strength of price movements
- Identifying potential support/resistance levels
7. Limitations:
- Doesn't indicate the direction of trades (long vs. short)
- Can be misleading if not considered alongside other factors
Nvidia (NVDA): A Beacon in the Tech Sea - Remains a Strong BuyNvidia (NVDA): A Beacon in the Tech Sea
Nvidia, a titan in the semiconductor industry, has consistently demonstrated its ability to navigate the complex landscape of technology. While the stock has experienced recent fluctuations, its underlying fundamentals remain strong, making it a compelling investment opportunity.
A Strong Financial Foundation
Nvidia's financial performance has been nothing short of exceptional. The company's revenue surged by 122.40% year-over-year, far surpassing market expectations. Additionally, its earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by a comfortable margin, underscoring its robust financial health.
Market Leadership and Future Potential
Nvidia's position as a market leader in the semiconductor industry is undeniable. With a massive market capitalization of $3.09 trillion, the company has a significant presence in critical segments such as data centers and artificial intelligence. Its ongoing commitment to innovation ensures that it remains at the forefront of technological advancements, driving future growth.
Navigating Short-Term Challenges
While the stock has experienced a recent decline, it's important to view this as a potential short-term market correction. Despite a slight decrease in institutional holdings, major investors like The Vanguard Group have increased their positions, indicating continued confidence in Nvidia's long-term prospects.
Why Nvidia Remains a Strong Buy
Innovation and Growth: Nvidia's relentless pursuit of innovation in AI and computing positions it for sustained growth.
Financial Health: A strong balance sheet provides a solid foundation for future success.
Market Leadership: Nvidia's dominant position in key segments gives it a competitive advantage.
Path to Recovery
As market sentiment improves and Nvidia continues to deliver impressive financial results, the stock is well-positioned for a rebound. Positive analyst ratings and target prices further reinforce this outlook.
In conclusion, while short-term market fluctuations are inevitable, Nvidia's strong fundamentals, market leadership, and commitment to innovation make it a compelling investment choice. Investors seeking exposure to the technology sector may find Nvidia to be a valuable addition to their portfolios.
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Risk Disclaimer!
The article information and the data is for general information use only, not advice!
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Risk Warning Trading stocks and options is a risky activity and can result in losses. You should only trade if you understand the risks involved and are comfortable with the potential for losses. Risk Disclaimer! General Risk Warning: Trading on the Financial Markets, Stock Exchange and all its asset derivatives is highly speculative and may not be suitable for all investors. Only invest with money you can afford to lose and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. It is important that you understand how Trading and Investing on the stock exchange works and that you consider whether you can afford the high risk of loss!
NVDA Nvidia has opened on a gap and should go lowerAfter earnings and a gap down is supportive of decreasing prices for Nvidia
Nvidia: DownhillNVDA has completed the green wave (X) and started descending toward our blue Target Zone between $91.30 and $76.02, which should mark the joint low of waves (Z) in green and A in beige. From this range, the beige five-wave downward move should continue, layawaying along the boundaries of our pink triangular trend channel to finish the large wave (IV) in blue. This final overarching low should take the form of a truncation, i.e., a shortened correction, and initiate a new uptrend above $137.32. However, it is 30% likely that the blue wave alt.(IV) has already concluded, which would result in a direct breakout above the $137.32 mark.
Nvidia Fails to Wow Traders. What to Make of Its Earnings ReportNvidia stock (ticker: NVDA ) is up nearly 3,000% in the past five years. Back then, in 2019, no one really cared about its earnings report as it was known mainly for its niche products targeting geeks, gamers and crypto miners. Now, when Nvidia reports, the world listens.
Everyone and their moms were glued to the screen Wednesday afternoon when the company released its quarterly earnings report. The numbers were good — triple-digit growth was there and guidance was calling for even more growth.
Yet investors proceeded to dump the stock. Big time . Shares lost as much as 10% of their valuation in after-hours trading before Nvidia fans scooped up some of those bruised gems at a discount.
Nvidia is worth $3 trillion (depending on the day) — that’s about 6% of the massive $50 trillion valuation of the S&P 500. The lofty price tag is largely due to Nvidia leading the AI boom with its chips being the hottest commodity in the tech world. As a result, Nvidia has turned into a top pick among the thousands of stocks available out there.
That gives you an idea of this stock’s important role. Markets are placing so much significance on Nvidia’s earnings update that you might as well put it on par with the jobs report or a Fed event.
Good but Not Absolutely Mind-Boggling Amazing
Analysts: We expect revenue growth of 115%.
Nvidia: Here’s 122%.
Analysts: Nooo, why not a bigger beat? Disappointed!
Nvidia posted another blockbuster quarter with $30 billion in revenue, up 122%, surpassing Wall Street’s estimates of $28.7 billion. Earnings per share landed at 68 cents a pop, up 152%, eclipsing consensus views of 65 cents. Thanks to the wide profit margins, Nvidia pocketed some $16.95 billion in net profit.
It did say, however, that gross profit margins narrowed quarter on quarter. For the three months to July 28, Nvidia generated an adjusted gross margin of 75.7%, down from 78.9% the previous quarter. Full-year gross margins are projected to sit above 75% while total revenue is expected to hit $120 billion.
With Great Returns Comes Great Responsibility
Here’s a harsh truth: the bigger you become, the higher the expectations for more breakneck growth. Nvidia’s revenue blasted by a supercharged 265% in the previous quarter. And if 122% can’t keep shares above the flatline, then Nvidia’s rapid expansion has turned against it. And by the looks of it, that growth is going to be increasingly challenged. Large-cap rivals are threatening to chip away (pun intended) at Nvidia’s dominance, potentially taking from its market share, diminishing the profit margins and pulling some of its Big Tech clientele.
For the October quarter, Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang projects revenue of $32.5 billion, which exceeds the average consensus of $31.7 billion. But, then again, it doesn’t exceed it by a lot — and that didn’t sit well with the overly optimistic investors out there.
Not everything was above market expectations. Nvidia’s next-generation AI chip — Blackwell — still hasn’t started shipping and that unnerves some stock holders. Huang tried to assuage investor fears during the earnings call, saying that despite some design-related delays , Blackwell will ramp up production as expected and will bring in “several billion dollars” still this year. In a move to instil confidence and maybe patch things up, Nvidia authorized a juicy $50 billion stock buyback, which is a mere 2% of its market cap.
What are you doing with Nvidia’s shares? Are you a long-term holder or looking for the right entry? Maybe buying this dip? Let us know in the comment section!
NVDA: Sell idea: Pullback on vwapOn NVDA we would have a hight probability to have a downtrend because as you can see on the chart we have a pullback on the vwap indicator and also if we have the breakout with force the support line.
Nvidia still working on Minor B retracementWith earnings out and traders not getting the normal reward of new 52 week highs, we continue to subdivide lower in a primary circle wave 4 that will more than likely not bottom until next year, possibly longer. A primary wave 4 will consist of an intermediate ABC, and each intermediate label will consist of a minor ABC. We're still working on minor B...therefore, it's important that followers of my work be informed we've only just begun the primary wave 4 pattern.
In the short term, we will be in this general area for a while as it appears now we're working on a flat for Intermediate (A).
