NVDA trade ideas
$NVDA one more correctionSHORT NASDAQ:NVDA NOW.
-NO VOLUME TODAY
-$141 RESISTANCE
-Market maker will shake off the weak hands first
NVIDIA: Is Wall Street's AI Darling Still a Good Investment?When you hear the name NVIDIA, what comes to mind?
Chances are, you're thinking of gaming graphics cards, or perhaps the explosive rise of Artificial Intelligence. And you're not wrong — NVIDIA powers everything from ChatGPT to Tesla's self-driving tech. But behind all the hype, there's a more important question serious investors should ask:
“Is NVIDIA still a smart investment at this price?”
As a value investor who combines deep fundamental analysis with AI-powered tools, I’m going to walk you through a comprehensive breakdown of NVIDIA from a true value lens — one that strips away the hype and reveals the numbers that actually matter.
Whether you're a beginner trying to learn how to value stocks or a seasoned investor looking for clarity, this guide will change the way you think about investing in companies like NVDA.
Let’s dive in.
🧩 First: What Even Is NVIDIA?
To understand whether NVIDIA is a good buy, you first need to understand what it actually does — and why it’s considered one of the most powerful companies of our time.
👇 TL;DR – NVIDIA in 3 Sentences:
💲It builds the GPUs (Graphics Processing Units) that power video games, AI models like ChatGPT, and high-performance computing in data centers.
💲It dominates the AI infrastructure market, which is growing faster than nearly any other tech vertical.
💲It's now worth over $3 trillion, making it one of the most valuable companies in human history.
NVIDIA has become the "picks and shovels" of the AI gold rush. But just because a company is great… doesn’t mean it’s a great investment at any price.
🧠 Understanding Value: What Makes a Stock Undervalued or Overvalued?
Before we dive into numbers, let’s get one thing straight:
Value investing is not about buying cheap stocks. It’s about buying great businesses for less than they’re worth.
To determine whether NVIDIA is undervalued, I ran it through six professional-grade valuation models and created a weighted average fair value, factoring in both upside potential and risk.
These models include:
✅ Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
✅ Price-to-Earnings Multiples
✅ PEG Ratios
✅ Graham Formula
✅ Dividend Discount Model
✅ Forward Earnings Forecasts
Sound complicated? It is. But I’ll walk you through every step — in plain English.
💵 Market Snapshot (as of June 2, 2025)
Current Stock Price: $137.38
Consensus Price Target (from analysts): $171.62
My Fair Value Estimate (weighted model): $152.83
Upside Potential: ~11% conservatively, up to 27% if analyst targets are correct
📊 Let’s Break Down the Valuation Models — One by One
1️⃣ Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
Think of this like saying:
“If I owned the entire company, how much cash would it make me in the future — and what is that worth today?”
Assumptions:
Revenue grows at 5% annually (very conservative)
We use a 10% discount rate (standard)
Future cash flows are modeled out 10 years
📈 Fair Value from DCF: $140.00
2️⃣ P/E Multiples (Price-to-Earnings)
This method compares NVIDIA’s earnings to its price — kind of like asking, “How many dollars do I pay for each $1 in profit?”
The S&P 500’s average P/E is ~20–25. NVIDIA’s is higher because it’s a growth company.
📈 Fair Value from P/E: $160.00
Based on applying an industry-adjusted multiple
3️⃣ Forward P/E Valuation
Instead of looking backward at past earnings, this looks forward at projected earnings.
If a company is growing fast, this method often shows better value.
📈 Fair Value from Forward P/E: $150.00
4️⃣ Graham Formula (Ben Graham’s Classic Approach)
Ben Graham, Warren Buffett’s mentor, created this formula to calculate intrinsic value based on growth and earnings. You can read about Graham's formular here
We applied very conservative growth assumptions to avoid overestimating.
📈 Fair Value from Graham Formula: $145.00
5️⃣ PEG Ratio (Price/Earnings/Growth)
This tells us if the company’s price is justified based on how fast it’s growing. A PEG of 1.0 is considered fairly valued.
📈 NVIDIA PEG Ratio: 0.98
📈 Fair Value Estimate: $155.00
👉 Translation: It’s priced just right for its explosive growth
6️⃣ Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
This is only useful for mature companies that pay dividends. NVIDIA reinvests most of its profits, so this model gives a low valuation.
📉 Fair Value from DDM: $130.00
But we’ll only weight this lightly, since the dividend is tiny.
📊 Final Verdict: Average Fair Value = $152.83 (weighted by models)
Current price = $137.38
Undervalued by ~11% under conservative modeling
⚖️ How I Weighed the Models (And Why It Matters)
Not every valuation model should be treated equally. Some are better suited for mature, dividend-paying companies. Others shine when analyzing high-growth innovators like NVIDIA. That’s why I didn’t just average all six models — I assigned weights based on relevance and reliability for this specific company.
Here’s the logic behind each one:
🔹 Discounted Cash Flow (20%)
NVIDIA generates massive free cash flow and has excellent visibility into future earnings — which makes DCF one of the most grounded ways to assess its intrinsic value.
🔹 Price-to-Earnings Multiple (20%)
With strong profits and high margins, NVIDIA deserves comparison against peers in the semiconductor space. The P/E model helps anchor valuation in current profitability.
🔹 Forward P/E (10%)
Because NVIDIA is growing rapidly, it's important to consider how the market is pricing in future earnings. However, since forward estimates can be speculative, I assigned it a lighter weight.
🔹 Graham Formula (20%)
This classic value investing formula focuses on earnings and growth with a built-in margin of safety. It’s perfect for assessing quality businesses like NVIDIA using conservative assumptions.
🔹 PEG Ratio (15%)
NVIDIA is growing earnings at a blistering pace. The PEG ratio adjusts the P/E multiple based on growth, giving us a powerful signal of whether the stock is expensive or not — especially for growth companies.
🔹 Dividend Discount Model (15%)
Although NVIDIA pays a small dividend, it's not central to its investment case. I included the DDM for completeness, but gave it the lowest weighting because the company reinvests most of its profits into growth, not shareholder payouts.
By applying these weights, I wasn’t just looking for a single “right” answer — I was building a balanced, multi-lens perspective on fair value. The result? A composite intrinsic value of $152.83, backed by a methodology that respects both fundamentals and growth dynamics.
Now let’s zoom out and look at bigger signals of strength.
📚 Book Value Growth: The Hidden Gem Most People Miss
Let’s talk about something almost every retail investor overlooks — Book Value Per Share (BVPS).
Think of BVPS as the company’s “net worth per share.” It’s the raw value of what shareholders would receive if NVIDIA liquidated all its assets and paid off its debts. While most growth investors are obsessed with flashy revenue numbers and AI headlines, I always take time to peek under the hood — and what I found with NVIDIA is quietly impressive.
Over the past five years, NVIDIA has steadily built shareholder value. In 2020, its book value per share sat at just $5.00. But by 2024, it had grown to $12.50. That’s not a fluke — it’s a 20% compounded annual growth rate. That’s the kind of consistent, behind-the-scenes compounding that Warren Buffett dreams about.
Looking ahead, if that same growth trend continues, we could see BVPS hit around $31.00 by 2029. Apply a reasonable price-to-book multiple, and you’re staring at a potential valuation of $341.00 per share — a full 2.5x from today’s levels.
🔹 This isn’t hype. It’s quiet, compounding strength.
🔹 It’s what great businesses do while the world’s distracted by headlines.
🔍 The Metrics That Matter
Metrics are just numbers — until you know what they actually mean. Here’s how I interpret NVIDIA’s financial DNA.
🔹 P/E Ratio at 44.31 — Yes, it’s high. But when you’re growing earnings 40% per year, that multiple starts to make sense. Growth is expensive — but NVIDIA is earning its premium.
🔹 Forward P/E at 28.33 — This reflects what investors are willing to pay based on projected future earnings. It signals that Wall Street still sees upside.
🔹 Return on Equity (ROE) at 106.92% — That’s not a typo. NVIDIA is generating more than double its net income for every dollar of shareholder equity. This is an elite business, deploying capital like few others.
🔹 Debt-to-Equity Ratio at 0.50 — Leverage is low, which means less risk. NVIDIA isn’t overextending itself, even as it scales aggressively.
🔹 Earnings Growth of 40% over 5 years — Very few large-cap companies are compounding at this rate. This is what separates a fast mover from a long-term compounder.
🔹 Free Cash Flow of $30B — Cash is king. And NVIDIA is sitting on a throne. This level of liquidity gives them options — to reinvest, acquire, or return capital to shareholders.
These aren’t just stats to admire. They’re signals — and they all point in one direction: strength.
📰 What’s Happening Right Now?
In the short term, NVIDIA has had some turbulence, but its fundamentals remain rock-solid. Here's what’s shaping its current narrative:
🔹 Record-breaking Q1 Revenue: $44.1 billion — up 69% year-over-year. Yes, you read that right. That kind of acceleration is unheard of at this scale.
🔹 The Blackwell Era Begins: Their new generation of chips is designed for “reasoning AI,” setting the stage for a whole new wave of demand.
🔹 Geopolitical Friction: Export controls and restrictions on China are projected to cost NVIDIA roughly $8 billion in lost sales. That’s real. But it’s also being offset by explosive growth in other global markets.
🔹 Inventory Write-Down: A $4.5 billion hit due to inventory adjustments. It's a short-term bruise, not a structural fracture.
🔹 Still Crushing Expectations: Even with these headwinds, NVIDIA continues to beat estimates and outperform peers.
This is what execution looks like under pressure. The headlines might look shaky — but the engine is still roaring.
📈 Technicals: What Do the Charts Say?
Even if you're a fundamentals-first investor like me, it pays to respect the chart. Momentum reflects psychology — and right now, sentiment is riding high.
🔹 Key support level at $130 — buyers step in here consistently.
🔹 Resistance zones at $143 and $150 — breaking above these could trigger further momentum.
🔹 50-day moving average at $135 — the stock is trading above this line, suggesting strength.
🔹 Golden Cross + Bull Flag — classic technical signals of an uptrend continuation. Bulls are still in control.
When price action and fundamentals align — that’s when conviction turns into action.
🧠 Bottom Line: Should You Buy NVIDIA?
Let’s get honest.
NVIDIA is not a value trap. It’s a compounder — a business with the financials, growth, and market position to continue dominating for years.
Is it risky? Yes. All growth stories are.
But the data doesn’t lie:
✅ Strong balance sheet
✅ Massive cash flow
✅ Global AI leadership
✅ Undervalued by multiple models
Even conservative valuation models suggest NVIDIA is trading below its true worth.
🚀 Want To Analyze Stocks Like This Without Doing All the Math?
I built Wallstreet Alchemist AI to help investors do this kind of deep analysis — in seconds. It’s designed for people who want to think like Warren Buffett but move like a quant.
🎯 You can try it for free.
Let AI do the heavy lifting — while you make sharper, conviction-driven decisions.
What stock do you want me to break down next? Drop a comment or DM me.
This is the kind of investing edge I wish I had when I started. Let’s level up together.
Nvidia 1D chart Harmonic Bearish Reversal Pattern CrabStop Loss: 136.50 Potential
Sell Stop: 124
TP1: 110.92
TP2: 98.28
Divergence Noted between Higher Highs earlier to D Point
Risk-Reward = Reward / Risk = 1% to 1%
NVIDIA: 4H Golden Cross starting new Channel Up Leg.NVIDIA is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 65.736, MACD = 5.860, ADX = 49.646) as it has established and maintained a Channel Up since its April bottom. The completion of a 4H Golden Cross has validated the start of the pattern's new bullish wave. The previous one topped at +30.58%. With the price already rebounding, we are bullish, aiming for a new HH (TP = 169.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NVDA further consolidation needed Purgatory should be expected after the most recent 2-3 year run IMO... NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:SMH
= Sideways chop to down can be expected.
NVDA Waiting for the Right DipAfter posting record earnings and riding the AI momentum wave, NVIDIA has finally started to cool off a bit and honestly, it’s healthy. The stock had a massive run, and now we’re seeing some consolidation, which could set up the next solid entry for those of us who didn’t chase the highs.
Here’s how I’m planning to approach it:
📍 Entry levels I’m watching:
Around $130 if we see a quick bounce off that zone.
If it dips further, I’m eyeing the $125–$118 area—lots of previous interest there.
And if things get really spicy, $112-108 would be a gift level for a strong entry.
🎯 Profit targets on the bounce:
$140 – First take profit, solid and realistic.
$145 – Next key level where sellers could show up.
$150 – Full recovery and possible breakout if momentum kicks back in.
I’m not in a rush to jump in. Let it come to the levels, confirm the move, and then ride it up. NVDA remains a beast long-term, but short-term patience pays.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice—just sharing my personal trading game plan. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
NVDA Hits the Ceiling – Breakout or Bull Trap?NVIDIA is charging into a massive resistance wall with fading momentum and no volume punch—either it explodes through $150 or this rally dies at the top.
Technical Breakdown – NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)
1. Price Action – Into the Fire
NVDA is retesting its all-time high zone ($135–$150), which previously rejected multiple times. This yellow/red zone is a congestion and distribution range — classic bear battleground. Each push into this area has ended in selling pressure — so buyers need real power to break it this time.
2. MACD – Bullish, But Flattening
MACD crossed bullish in early May, driving this run. However, momentum is now flattening out — a sign that follow-through is weakening. Histogram bars are shrinking → momentum is fading, not building.
3. RSI – Bullish but Tiring
RSI peaked near 70 and is now at 63.06 — momentum rolled off just as price hit resistance. This sets up a bearish divergence risk: if price breaks higher and RSI makes a lower high, that’s a classic top signal. For now, RSI is still constructive, but losing steam.
4. Volume – No Climax Yet
Volume is not exploding on this push into resistance — suggests this is not a conviction breakout (yet). Prior breakouts came with clear volume surges; without that, we could see a failed breakout / bull trap.
5. Contextual Read – High Expectations
Sentiment around NVDA is extremely bullish with AI mania in full gear. But that’s exactly when tops form — when everyone’s already in, there are no marginal buyers left. The $135–$150 zone is where smart money sells to latecomers if there's no catalyst to push higher.
Conclusion – NVDA at a Probable Inflection Point
NVIDIA is at major resistance with waning momentum and no volume confirmation — the burden of proof is on the bulls.
Unless:
We get a decisive close above $150 on surging volume
MACD extends bullish
RSI holds above 60
This looks like a sell zone, not a buy zone.
NVDANVDA crashed into resistance at 143.5
and now it look like it's headed for underlying support level
if the lower support hold they could project NVDA towards the break of the upper resistance
befor and than, up to dynamic resistance above (purple line)
Losing support could project to new lows
NVDA Just Broke Structure – Bounce or Breakdown Incoming?📊 NVDA GEX Daily (Options Sentiment Overview)
NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) closed at $135.13, down nearly 3% on Friday, and has now pulled back from the gamma resistance cluster between 140–145. GEX sentiment is cooling, and the chart shows we just lost the HVL (High Volume Level) around 137.5, putting bulls in a tricky spot.
GEX Levels to Know:
* 🟢 Positive gamma stack at 140 → 145 → 150, with 143.9 as the next key magnet IF price recovers.
* 🟥 Heavy dealer put interest below 134 → 130 → 125; GEX sharply negative down there.
* 🧊 IVR 10.2 = super cheap options → ideal setup for directional trades using debit spreads.
💡 Options Strategy:
* Bullish: If NVDA reclaims 137.5, play for bounce back to 140–143. Look at Jul 19 140c or 137.5/145c spread.
* Bearish: If it fails to reclaim 135 and breaks 133.25, play toward 130–131. Look at Jul 19 132p/125p vertical.
Dealers may flip short under 133, increasing the chance of acceleration if support breaks.
🕵️♂️ 1H Chart Breakdown (Swing/Intraday View)
The 1-hour chart tells a clear story: NVDA broke short-term structure with CHoCH and BOS under 135, and is now channeling downward with a falling wedge-type pattern. The SMC supply at 143–145 held strong.
Key Notes:
* ⚠️ Breakdown from rising structure, now forming new bearish channel.
* 🟩 Short-term CHoCH support near 133.25 is key — if lost, opens 130 fast.
* 🟣 Momentum + RSI screaming overbought → likely a lower high if it bounces to 138 area.
📈 Swing Setup:
* Short bias while under 137.5.
* Entry: rejection near 136–137
* Target: 133.2, then 130.4
* Bull case only resumes if we reclaim 138 clean → invalidates the breakdown.
📊 Intraday Playbook:
* Short bounce into 136.25–137.5 (previous BOS zone).
* Long scalp bounce off 133.25, but only for short-term risk-controlled play.
Bias = Bearish unless 137.5 is reclaimed. Don’t fight the momentum.
🧠 Final Thoughts
NVDA has shifted from leader to potential drag — at least near term. The structure is broken, and GEX is aligning with downside momentum. IV is cheap, making this a great week for defined-risk option plays, whether you’re looking to fade pops or scalp breakdowns.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
TSLA Weekly Options Outlook — June 1, 2025📉 TSLA Weekly Options Outlook — June 1, 2025
🚨 AI Consensus: Bearish Momentum Ahead of June 6 Expiry
🧠 Summary of AI Model Signals
🔹 Grok (xAI)
Technicals: Below EMAs, RSI deeply oversold (26.95), MACD bearish.
Sentiment: VIX steady, max pain at $340 implies downside.
Trade: Buy $340P @ $8.25 → Target $9.08 (+10%) / Stop $6.60 (−20%)
Confidence: 65%
🔹 Claude (Anthropic)
Technicals: Bearish EMAs/MACD, volume spike on red bars.
Sentiment: Negative sales buzz, falling VIX, max pain $340.
Trade: Buy $340P @ $8.20 → Target +50–100% / Stop $5.74
Confidence: 72%
🔹 Llama (Meta)
Technicals: Bearish M5 EMA stack; support at $345 zone.
Trade: Buy $342.5P @ $9.40 → Target +20% / Stop −50%
Confidence: 70%
🔹 Gemini (Google)
Technicals: Strong bearish momentum, RSI oversold.
Trade: Buy $305P @ $0.95 → Target $1.90 / Stop $0.47 (Day trade)
Confidence: 75%
🔹 DeepSeek
Technicals: Breakdown in progress, momentum fading.
Sentiment: Weak China/Europe news; max pain support at $340.
Trade: Buy $340P @ $8.25 → Target $12.38 (+50%) / Stop $5.78
Confidence: 70%
✅ Consensus Takeaways
🔻 Bearish technical setup on all timeframes
🔄 Max Pain at $340 = potential price magnet
📉 Strong directional momentum + oversold RSI across models
📆 Preferred strategy: Buy weekly naked puts, enter Monday open
🎯 Recommended Trade Setup
💡 Strategy: Bearish Single-Leg Weekly Put
📈 Ticker: TSLA
🔀 Direction: PUT (SHORT)
🎯 Strike: $340
💵 Entry Price: $8.25
🎯 Target: $9.08 (+10%)
🛑 Stop: $6.60 (−20%)
📏 Size: 1 Contract
📆 Expiry: 2025-06-06
⏰ Entry: At Market Open
📊 Confidence: 70%
⚠️ Key Risks to Watch
📉 RSI is oversold — potential for a short-term bounce
🕒 Time decay accelerates midweek — don’t hold too long
🚀 Unexpected bullish catalyst (e.g., SpaceX PR, macro rally)
💵 Liquidity fine (4.4k OI), but wide spreads in fast markets
📊 TRADE DETAILS (JSON)
json
Copy
Edit
{
"instrument": "TSLA",
"direction": "put",
"strike": 340.0,
"expiry": "2025-06-06",
"confidence": 0.70,
"profit_target": 9.08,
"stop_loss": 6.60,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 8.25,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-06-02 09:30:00 UTC-04:00"
}
NVDA Weekly Options Outlook — June 1, 2025📉 NVDA Weekly Options Outlook — June 1, 2025
🚨 AI Model Consensus: Lean Bearish Into 6/6 Expiry
🧠 Model Breakdown
🔹 Grok (xAI)
Bias: Short-term bullish (above 10/50 EMA on M5), but below 200 EMA.
Indicators: RSI ~63, MACD weakening on daily.
Sentiment: Falling VIX + AI buzz, but $133 max pain caps upside.
Trade: Buy $141C @ ~$0.94 → Target +50%, SL 50%
Confidence: 70%
🔹 Claude (Anthropic)
Bias: Slightly bullish.
Indicators: Price above 10EMA, below 200EMA; MACD weak, RSI neutral.
Sentiment: Call/put OI split, max pain $133.
Trade: Buy $140C @ $0.96 → Target +55–75%, SL $0.50
Confidence: 72%
🔹 Gemini (Google)
Bias: Bearish.
Indicators: Bearish MACD crossover; upper Bollinger rejection.
Sentiment: Positive news priced in.
Trade: Buy $128P @ $0.73 → Target +75–100%, SL 50%
Confidence: 65%
🔹 Llama (Meta)
Bias: Moderately bearish.
Indicators: MACD fading; under EMAs on M5.
Trade: Buy $133P → Target +50%, SL above $136.35
Confidence: 70%
🔹 DeepSeek
Bias: Bearish.
Indicators: MACD bearish crossover; momentum fading.
Trade: Buy $132P @ $1.65 → Target +100%, SL 50%
Confidence: 65%
✅ Consensus Takeaways
🎯 Max Pain: $133 is the focal level across all models.
🟢 VIX down; sentiment positive, but momentum fading.
📉 Daily MACD across models turning bearish.
⚠️ Bullish calls (Grok/Claude) vs. bearish puts (Gemini/Llama/DeepSeek).
🔍 Recommended Trade This Week
💡 Bearish Play: NVDA Weekly Put (Exp: 2025-06-06)
💵 Entry: $1.66
🎯 Target: $2.49 (+50%)
🛑 Stop: $0.83 (−50%)
🔢 Size: 1 contract
⏰ Entry Timing: Market open (Monday)
📈 Confidence: 65%
⚠️ Risks to Watch
🚀 AI catalyst could reverse thesis and rally price fast
⏳ Time decay will eat premium—move needed early
🕳️ Opening gaps could get filled fast—use limit orders
🔄 Max pain ≠ magnetic level—watch price action around $133 closely
📊 TRADE DETAILS (JSON)
json
Copy
Edit
{
"instrument": "NVDA",
"direction": "put",
"strike": 132.0,
"expiry": "2025-06-06",
"confidence": 0.65,
"profit_target": 2.49,
"stop_loss": 0.83,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 1.66,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-06-02 09:30:00 UTC-04:00"
}
NVDA Trade Idea – Weekly Structure Opening for 385-Day Cycle 🕒 Weekly Pattern Outlook
NVDA is believed to be entering a new structural phase within a 385-day cycle, with the $129–$135 range acting as a potential entry zone. This zone allows risk management through a stop loss if the bullish structure fails to materialize.
📊 Volume/Float Ratio & Market Sentiment
Vol/Float Ratio: 1.45% – weak, but not bearish.
Market is leaning bullish, not bearish, despite current sideways consolidation.
This weakness may be caused by retail hesitation, waiting for macro news or market reaction before entering.
📈 Technical View (TA):
On the daily timeframe, NVDA is currently retesting previous zones.
A short-term drop followed by a bounce is highly probable — which could lead to a breakout targeting $153.
High-probability scenario: NVDA reaches $191 within the next 31 days if structure holds and volatility increases.
⚠️ Gap & Momentum Considerations:
Current Gap % = 1.45% → indicates low volatility and neutral/bullish sideways phase.
If Gaps expand to 100–200%, expect explosive movement and breakout behavior.
For now, the sideways structure dominates, not a bear trend.
💡 Trading Strategy:
Avoid buyer strategy for now due to weak volatility.
Option sellers (premium collectors) will benefit more in current conditions.
If you're trading positionally, set a trailing stop loss to manage risk in case of a false breakout or pullback.
Disclaimer:
This trade idea is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk. Always use capital you can afford to lose and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NVIDIA Nvidia Stock Correlation with 10-Year Bond Yields, Bond Prices, and Interest Rates
1. Correlation with Bond Yields and Interest Rates
10-Year Bond Yields: Nvidia’s stock (NVDA) has shown mixed sensitivity to bond yields. Rising yields (e.g., 30-year yields surpassing 5% in May 2025) historically pressured tech stocks by increasing discount rates for future earnings. However, Nvidia’s AI-driven growth narrative has partially offset this, as seen in its 69% YoY revenue surge in Q1 2025 despite bond market volatility.
Interest Rates: The Fed’s rate cut expectations (priced for September 2024 and beyond) have supported risk assets like Nvidia. Lower rates reduce borrowing costs for AI infrastructure investments, indirectly benefiting NVDA.
2. Factors Driving Revenue Growth in 2025
AI Infrastructure Spending:
Cloud providers (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) invested $50B+ in Q2 2025 on AI infrastructure, with Nvidia capturing 70–95% of the AI chip market.
Data center revenue hit $39.1B in Q1 2025 (+142% YoY), driven by demand for Hopper and Blackwell GPUs.
Blackwell GPU Launch:
The Blackwell GB200 GPU, offering 30x faster AI inference, is projected to generate $45B+ in FY2025 revenue as production scales.
Market Share Expansion:
Nvidia’s semiconductor market share tripled since 2020 to 7.3%, overtaking Intel and Samsung in key segments.
3. Upcoming Challenges
Export Restrictions in China:
Export controls cost Nvidia $8B in Q1 2025 revenue and could erase $15B annually if unresolved. The H20 chip’s limited performance further strains China-market competitiveness.
Competition and Market Saturation:
AMD and Intel are accelerating AI chip development, while cloud providers design in-house alternatives (e.g., Google’s TPU).
Valuation and Volatility:
NVDA’s 30% stock correction in July 2024 highlighted sensitivity to AI spending concerns. Analysts warn of “exuberance fatigue” as earnings growth slows from triple-digit to 45% YoY.
Macro Risks:
Rising Treasury yields (e.g., 10-year at 4.54%) and federal debt concerns ($36T) could divert capital from tech to bonds.
Summary Table
Factor Impact on Nvidia Stock (NVDA) Source Citations
10-Year Yield ↑ Mixed (pressure from discount rates vs. AI growth)
Interest Rate Cuts Positive (supports tech spending)
AI Spending Major revenue driver ($115B data center sales)
China Export Curbs $8B–$15B annual revenue risk
Competition Threatens market share (AMD, in-house chips)
Nvidia's stock (NVDA) currently shows a mixed correlation with 10-year US Treasury bond yields amid recent market shifts. While rising bond yields typically pressure high-growth tech stocks like Nvidia by increasing discount rates on future earnings, Nvidia’s strong earnings and dominant position in AI hardware have helped it partially decouple from this trend.
Recent Data: Nvidia’s stock price is around $135 (down ~3% on the day), reflecting some volatility after a strong rally earlier in 2025 fueled by stellar AI-driven revenue growth.
Bond Yields Context: The US 10-year Treasury yield recently hovered near 4.49% to 4.54%, with 30-year yields surpassing 5% amid fiscal concerns. Rising yields generally increase borrowing costs and discount future earnings, which can weigh on Nvidia’s valuation.
Market Reaction: Despite higher yields, Nvidia’s shares rallied after strong earnings and optimistic guidance, suggesting investor confidence in its AI growth story offsets some bond market pressure.
Volatility and Risks: The stock remains sensitive to macroeconomic factors such as rising yields, trade tensions, and export restrictions impacting China sales. Nvidia’s price movements often reflect the balance between its growth prospects and broader market risk sentiment influenced by bond yields.
In summary, Nvidia’s stock and bond yields currently exhibit a partial inverse correlation, but Nvidia’s unique growth drivers in AI technology have softened the typical negative impact of rising yields on its stock price. Investors continue to watch bond yield trends closely, as sustained increases could cap further gains or increase volatility in Nvidia shares.
Conclusion
Nvidia’s stock remains buoyed by AI demand and Fed rate cut optimism but faces headwinds from bond yield volatility, China restrictions, and competition. While its $44.1B Q1 2025 revenue underscores dominance, sustaining growth requires navigating export rules and proving Blackwell’s long-term profitability. Investors should monitor bond market shifts and AI spending trends for directional cues.
#NVIDIA #STOCKS #BONDS #DOLLAR
Setting the Stage for a New Bull Cycle- The theoretical price cycle has ended and appears to be initiating a new one — naturally
beginning with an impulsive move.
- While the company is perceived as evolving into a cash cow, it still remains the leader of a
high-growth market. This makes it an exceptional portfolio asset.
- The peak of the new trend could reach the 261.8% level. A minor correction trend might
follow, but it's not considered significant.
- Unless there is a downward revision in analyst forecasts, the stock should be held for the long
term, with additional entries recommended at each correction wave.
NVDA Short time is Now using fractal geometry calculations This analysis suggests that NVDA may be entering a bearish phase based on recent price action. After an extended bullish run, the stock appears to be losing momentum, with signs of distribution emerging on the chart
. This could mark the beginning of a short-term or intermediate correction.
NVDA looks to go downNVDA is not maintained its support level of 138.24 and its expect to fall support level of 129.12. Wait for fresh entry it it fall to 129.12 or rise to 138.24.
Note: This is not a buy/sell trade call.
No Further FallThe declinesince October seems to be over for now. Past week we had nonew low and the new attempt to fall past week could not be continued.
This may be the beginning of a correction of the decline since February at least.
NVDA 4 HR. WAVE C IS LIKELY OVER ON CORRECTION!1). Price is very likely heading towards the fair Market value @ 136. 2). Risk Assets are weak today on US$ strength! 3). BANKS ARE SELLING! 4). Volume is dropping. 5). Trendline intersecting with target fib. level. 5). ONCE COMPLETED PRICE WILL PROGRESS NORTH ON WAVE 5 VERY LIKELY!
NVIDIA Massive Cup and Handle targets $200.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is pulling back aggressively following yet another positive Earnings report, where they beat the estimates again but the market is reacting with selling. That has been a 'norm' in the past 12 months but even from a technical standpoint, the price reached the 143.60 Resistance level (made of the February 18 High), so profit taking is technically normal market behavior here.
On the longer term however, this Resistance test potentially forms the top f a very powerful pattern, the Cup and Handle (C&H). At the moment, the market has the support of both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Handle, which has just started, has some room to safely consolidate for a while before the pattern break-out upwards.
Technically, C&H patterns reach their 2.0 Fibonacci extensions after the break-out, so our medium-term Target is set at $200.
Notice also the Bearish Divergence on the 1D RSI, which is similar to that of late October 2024. A break below the 1D MA50 risks the bullish structure on this pattern.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NVDA 4 HR. WAVE 5 IS LIKELY OVER & DROPPING ON CORRECTION!1). Price is very likely heading towards the fair Market value @ 123. 2). Risk Assets are weak today on US$ strength! 3). BANKS ARE SELLING! 4). Volume is dropping. 5). Trendline intersecting with target fib. level 100% & PRICE 123.
NVDA looks weak AGAIN5/30 Market news is breaking and not good re Tariffs with China.
NVDA now has much more competition for its product AND in the stock market.
Watching for consolidation in range.
Nvidia Posts Another Blowout Quarter. What Can Slow It Down?Hint: Not much.
🚀 Earnings So Good You Can’t Ignore ‘Em
Another quarter, another jaw-dropper from Nvidia NVDA . In what has basically become a quarterly ritual at this point (congrats to all who celebrate!), Jensen Huang’s silicon empire posted revenue of $44.1 billion , soaring past the $43.3 billion consensus.
That’s a 69% year-over-year gain, in case anyone’s still doing the math. Adjusted earnings of 81 cents per share also easily crushed expectations.
Shares popped 5% in after-hours trading Wednesday and then pulled back a little bit during the cash session on Thursday — not quite a moonshot, but a confirmation that even if Nvidia’s guidance was meh, this earnings report was meh’gnificent.
So what exactly is fueling this unstoppable juggernaut? And is there anything that could actually throw a wrench in the gears? Grab your chips (there’s your pun), let’s break it down.
💾 Data Centers: The Company’s Cash Cow
If Nvidia is famous for anything, it’s that it’s really able to see the trend before the crowds pick it up. From gaming, to crypto… and now? The star of the show now is data centers. But there's not just any growth. We’re talking $39.1 billion in data center revenue, up 73% from last year. That’s nearly 90% of Nvidia’s entire business. Not exactly fans of revenue diversification, are we?
Big Tech is gorging on Nvidia’s AI chips like it’s an all-you-can-eat GPU buffet. Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN , Google NASDAQ:GOOGL , and Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT alone account for nearly half of that segment.
Basically, if you’re building anything with the words “large language model,” “AI agent,” or “sovereign compute,” you’re probably writing big checks to Nvidia.
🇨🇳 About That $10.5 Billion Problem
Thanks to Trump’s H20 export ban, Nvidia’s revenue from China is expected to take a $10.5 billion hit over two quarters. That’s an $8 billion crater forecasted for the current quarter, on top of a $2.5 billion gap in the previous one.
Is that bad? Maybe. Does anyone care right now? Not really.
Because here’s the kicker: demand outside China is so nuclear that even subtracting ten billion bucks over six months doesn’t materially derail the bullish narrative. Nvidia’s still forecasting $45 billion in revenue this quarter, which is basically flat — but considering what’s missing, that’s a win in disguise.
📦 Blackwell to the Rescue
The forward guidance may have missed the Street’s expectations — Nvidia projected Q2 revenue of $44–$46 billion, versus the $45.9 billion consensus — but CEO Jensen Huang already served the antidote: Blackwell Ultra.
These next-gen chips are already shipping to early customers. They promise to be leaner, meaner, and more power-efficient — basically, think McLaren but for AI accelerators. And they’re expected to ramp up aggressively in the back half of the year.
That means Nvidia has a new growth lever just waiting to be pulled. Some overly bullish analysts say it could eclipse the H100’s success.
💡 The Real Moat? It’s Not Just the Chips
What makes Nvidia such a rare beast isn’t just its hardware. It’s the ecosystem — CUDA, software stacks, developer tools, APIs, vertical integrations. It’s like Apple, but for the AI industrial complex.
Everyone wants to build an AI empire, but good luck doing it without Nvidia’s infrastructure. It’s not just expensive — it’s essential.
In the meantime, AMD NASDAQ:AMD and Intel NASDAQ:INTC are trying. There’s chatter about custom silicon from OpenAI (still a private company) and Meta $META. But for now, the moat around Nvidia looks more like a canyon.
🧨 So What Could Slow It Down?
But let’s not get carried away — there are still some real risks on the radar. Here’s what might actually trip up the AI king:
Geopolitical shocks: More export bans? Chinese retaliation? Taiwan tension? Any of these could make markets twitchy.
Supply chain constraints: As demand grows, so does pressure on foundries like TSMC 2330 . Any hiccups in advanced packaging or wafer starts could pinch margins.
Rising competition: AMD’s MI300 is no slouch. And Big Tech is building in-house chips to lessen reliance on Nvidia.
AI fatigue: If the AI hype cycle fizzles out or hits a plateau (remember the metaverse?), that could cool capital spending. It only takes 3-4 tech titans to pull their capex and Nvidia’s reign is over.
But until any of that materializes, the narrative for many is "Buy the dip — Jensen’s grip won’t slip."
💫 What’s Priced In?
The stock’s P/E is still sky-high, and the multiple implies several more years of 50–60% annual revenue growth. That’s hard to sustain indefinitely. But then again, so was becoming the second-largest company in the world… (and the biggest one, if only for a while ) and here we are.
Nvidia’s valuation is steep, but not unjustified — as long as it keeps executing. And judging by any of the previous quarters going back to 2023, execution isn’t a problem.
👩🏻🚀 More Than a Stock — Macro Theme
At this point, Nvidia has transcended chipmaker status. It’s now a macro story. Betting on Nvidia is betting on AI. It’s betting on infrastructure. It’s betting on the next industrial revolution in software, automation, and language models.
So… what can stop it? Share your thoughts in the comment section!
