$NVR with a neutral outlook following its earnings #StocksThe PEAD projected a neutral outlook for NYSE:NVR after a negative under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift D with an expected accuracy of 50%.
NVR trade ideas
Amidst the WindowAhead of the important supporting MA we seem to halt amidst an open window. If we fail to close it we will likely go back to retest the all time high again.
The 78 % last controlling the rise Fibonacci level had been taking out already last week.
C&H// Ascending TriangleNew ATH needed to break the resistance at the top of the cup.
EL has not been met.
Price is at the support line for an ascending triangle.
A stop could be placed under this support line.
No recommendation
$NVR with a Bullish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bullish outlook for $NVR after a positive under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift A with an expected accuracy of 55.56%.
Symmetrical TriangleNeutral pattern until a line is broken.
Earnings in January. This company has a large EPS, yet does not pay a dividend.
Homebuilder's are not on most folks buy list right now but I plan to watch this one and perhaps catch it when I see a possible bottom being made in the sector which may be a while )o:
EPS (FWD)
459.08
PE (FWD)
9.00
Div Rate (TTM)
-
Yield (TTM)
-
Short Interest
2.22%
Market Cap
$13.65B
NVR, Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Homebuilding and Mortgage Banking. It engages in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes names. The company markets its Ryan Homes products to first-time and first-time move-up buyers; and NVHomes and Heartland Homes products to move-up and luxury buyers. It also provides various mortgage related services to its homebuilding customers, as well as brokers title insurance; performs title searches in connection with mortgage loan closings; and sells mortgage loans to investors in the secondary markets on a servicing released basis. The company primarily serves in Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee, and Washington, D.C. NVR, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.
$NVR with a Bearish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bearish outlook for $NVR after a Negative Under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift D with an expected accuracy of 42.86%.
Confirmed bounce NVR tradeIF you were with the watchlist last week this trade worked out just as planned. NVR was basing at the bottom of its range and then showed me that it wanted to move back up. Added to the position and took profits at resistance.
NVR support buyTHe red ellipse is a nice area to put a buy order. A small buy order. don't get to crazy with size. This chart is in a range and it will take a minute for you to make some gains.
Cup and HandlePattern only valid over long entry level
Possible stop under handle low or mid cup of 3057
Not a recommendation
No rising wedges noted
Short interest is very low
Long $NVR $5,900 Price Target 2021Since my last post, I've adjusted my price target to $5,900 per share. Analysts are too conservative and wrong about $NVR and the influence of the unprecedented action from the Fed. That said, my price target has many assumptions baked in including continued low rates through all of 2021, a Trump re-election (extension of the low tax regime) and COVID resolution.
This estimate includes revenues of around ~$8B, net income of ~$1B, around ~$750M spent on repurchases, a float of ~3.4M shares for EPS of around $295 per share next year.
The company has unbelievably high ROA, ROE, ROIC all from a very balanced capital structure. Operating income and hence operating cash flow is the most important characteristic of any business in my view. It's $NVR's ability to continue to produce strong operating cash flow that enables it to repurchase so much stock and enrich existing shareholders by increasing their proportionate equity.
Housing market - a response to ForbesRead a fascinating article from Forbes this morning about the state of the American housing market, Allegedly supply and demand are at an all time high and millennials Nearly at the mean age of buying houses 34y/o. so I opted to have a look myself and yes its True, sinse February it's been on a 45% bull run. Impressive stuff... And they say it can go higher... Can it?
Switching between weekly and monthly TF's tells a more cautionary tale:
Bear scenario
- weekly it has double typed with a huge spike in volume followed by Dismal volume
- monthly it broke upwards. Which is good.. Orrrr is it? Based on volume tend It could also be a B wave and waiting for 20-28% correction C wave with bearish divergent on the RSI
On both time frames it has recently completed 5th waves
Bull scenario:
Weekly it may have already drawn an abc correction and started anew and is waiting for volume to push it through resistance
monthly it is above the weekly double top. Will it turn it into support and follow a new channel to an elliot wave extension?
Overall I am thinking it is on a tight leash and which ever way could have real consequences.. We are in the longest housing bull market in decades.. Interesting times.
Opportunity abounds
Short NVR for break lowerThis 120m chart of NVR shows an ongoing triangle within a larger degree A-B-C correction. I'm counting the sharp, impulsive move off the high as wave A, followed by a wave B triangle. If the stock breaks lower from here, profit targets would be the 61.8% and 100% Fibonacci extensions of the distance traveled in wave A. Initiating a short position at 3050 for a move to 2650/2300.
Note that these patterns occasionally involve a false topside break, where early shorts get squeezed out of their position before the move lower. For this reason, I'm trading a small position to start and will look to add as the trade plays out. Prepared to ride a move higher in the short-term, but a sustained rally through 3450 will cause me to reevaluate the position.
Uptrend on $NVR After some interesting Q1 results discosed on April the 19th, with EPS and net margin topping analysts' forecasts, the stock is now continuing in its uptrend with a trailing support netting higher and higher lows.
RSI on the 4h chart shows an overbought situation but the distance of price to the support line is currently of 16724bps, roughly a 5,7% margin.
***As usual, not a trading advice, merely my idea for informational and educational purposes***
NVR INC technical anlaysisLooks like this stock is giving clear technical bullish analysis. Even though it looks little oversold, it is high on bullish trend as we can see here.
For copiers, I will be buying this stock coming week and hold for few weeks to book decent profit.
