PBR: 7 Year Bear Run Over?How do you not like a stock that doubles in a little over a month? PBR killed it on their last earnings report and it has been on fire ever since (with the help of the energy market). Pull up a monthly chart on this stock and you can see their is a lot of momentum behind this move. I suspect this rally to last another 2-5 months at least. Expect a strong trending market to continue to form. I marked out the current main support trendline from the lows in march. Intermediate target right now I have set at the .387 retrace of $11 and .5 retrace of $13. I can easily see PBR rallying pass these targets as they reported higher YoY revenue, net income, and cashflow. Intermediate support is seen at 9.50-9.40, 9, and main support at 8.50. Expect momentum to continue as long as price remains above 8.50 Have a chart you want me to analyze? Comment below!Longby ApePublished 883
PBRI started buying this one from 6,10 to 5,20 and then it bounce as expected. I still think this is THE trade of 2015... look my old posts... I love this one and expect to see 20 this year... now if we go to the short term it may take a breath from 7,80 to 7,10 and then continue the journey... so IF this one goes to 7,10 then it will be a nice buying opportunityLongby fjtoledanob9Published 0
Technical and Fundamental Analysis of PBR (Petrobrás)Fundamental keypoints: (Translated from portuguese) * New management: The new finance minister shows that is able to change the actual situation, which makes the market enthusiastic and hopeful * While Dilma said the actual president is going to stay for the moment, there are rumors saying she'll (Which is Maria das Graça Foster) be replaced by Vale's actual president, which also makes the market hopeful. * Although there are new reports, most of the media forgot about the incident already. The incident being a lot of reports of corruption inside the corporation, one of the most scandalous reports of corruption on Dilma's last government. (2010-2014) * Most of the debt is being cleared on recent discussions about opening a new paper, or trying to re-finance it with investors. * The target price most brokers and banks that still recommend this stock are aiming for is from 14 to 18 R$. (Reais) * If there's a new paper on the market, this one will drop it's value fast. So be aware of the risk. Technical Keypoints: * Most of the bullish movement is because of fundamental price action, while it applies itself accordingly with technical analysis, considering the following: double bottom, probably followed by an harmonic pattern that indicates bearish behavior. Which means that short term we could expect a rise, then a drop. In the long term, I'd expect it to go sideways, followed by some bumps. If it goes out of the harmonic pattern, you could expect a continuation of the bearish trend (downtrend). Portuguese text: * Nova gestão Dilma: Ministério da Fazenda demonstra entusiasmo e mudanças em prol do mercado * Otimismo em relação a troca de presidente da Petrobrás, devido a pressão política em cima da Maria das Graças Foster * Murilo Ferreira é cotado como possível substituto, isso cria expectativa para com o mercado * Apesar de novas denúncias, mídia não comenta mais tanto do assunto, algumas corretoras ainda mantém indicação de compra * Negocia-se com credores as pendencias atuais e estão tentando evitar riscos sobre dívida em recentes reuniões * Preço médio cotado por análise fundamental é entre 14 e 18 R$ (Alvo) * Dissolução dos papéis atualmente pode acarretar falta de investimento futuro (?) That's it, trade safe.Longby Ice_Published 333
Petrobras Brasileiro: Corruption undermines Fitch RatingI've flagged Brazil's state-owned mega-energy firm Petrobras Brasileiro ADR (NYSE: PBR) because the SEC is investigating the energy firm for money-laundering and corruption, thus skewing Fitch Ratings of PBR. Since PBR owns a Texan refinery, PBR it is accountable under US jurisdiction. PBR has been found in violation of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and "other laws". I highly suspect "other laws" may very well be The Racketeer Influenced and Corruption Organizations Act (RICO), taking into account PBR's "cartel" influence in the global energy sector. $PBR closed at $10.50 at the closing bell; -$.34 or -3.14%. Its price range was $11.51 at pre-market, opening around $11.15 then plummeting down to $10.41 during Wall Street's Witching Hour. What is more shocking is to learn that the Fitch Ratings just released at the same time; gave an upgrade on the series of notes to "BBB"; the "issuance of which are backed by the royalty flows owed by oil concessionaires, predominately, PBR, and Rio De Janeiro (RJS), of which 100% flows to RioPrevidencia (RP), the states pension fund." In part, the USD 1.1 billion series 2014-3 notes 'BBB', Outlook Stable and BRl 2.4 billion series 2014-2 special indebtedness interests notes affirmed at 'AAAsf(bra)', Outlook Stable. PBR's cartel is backing a capital investment program at USD 220 billion between 2014 and 2018. PBR is an asset to be used when the market performance is shaky. Its personality Currently the downside calculation of price per share: $.54. Shortby ZentoroPublished 112
No wonder EEM doesn't performPetrobras - The national oil company of Brazil peaked at April 2008. Ever since then the price has been contained inside this downtrend channel (with the exception of 2009 panic selling) It is hated so much that it could plunge as low as 8-9 before OPEC meeting.by jangseoheePublished 112
PBR long tradingthis look is for long term as God wish .best luck for all .Longby hussain9Published 0
PBR Daily.(F) With first elections out of the way, positive expectations, and undervaluation. Potential IHS, and basing. Notes on chart. Gap Fill potential, breaking downtrend_line, 200 sma. first act. RSI on brake_out point, at 31. Targets in descending probability. Target_1 : 15.50 Target_2 : 18 Target_3 : 19.65Longby rvPublished 444
WDB Option Model Update - PBR ftw baby!Hello all, I am constantly astounded at how well this little WDB Options model I put together is at finding the bottoms of markets. Here is an update of one stock that came up on our screen back last spring. The chart really speaks for itself as we have steadily moved higher from the signal levels - again astounding. The long and short of this story is if one was fortunate enough to be able to take the trade (and have an average cash cost of $10.80) one should be getting ready to sell some. Our time tested rule of selling half your position on a double (in this case $21.60) would basically put us in a position of getting all our original capital back in our hands and give us a 'risk free' position on the remaining shares. Again, I would highly recommend you do so if you took this particular trade. That's all for this post, just a quick update on yet another awesome WDB model candidate....wtg WDB and wtg CRI.. Cheers, Brian aka The Rational InvestorLongby CRInvestorPublished 1
PBR at a very critical level. A breakout or a short?Bollinger band suggesting a double top? Breaking this level could see higher prices but in short term it seems the price would come down.Shortby showstopperPublished 1
SHORT PETROBAS5-3-5 ZIGZAG WAVE C .618 FIB EXTENSION OF WAVE A WAVE B COMPLETED A ASCENDING TRIANGLE WAVE 2 WITHIN A 5 WAVE IMPULSE CANNOT BE A TRIANGLE FURTHER STRENGTHENING OUR CONVICTION OF A CORRECTIVE WAVE PATTERN. Shortby IridiumPublished 0
PBRA.APetrolo Brasilerio was founded in October of 1953 to operate in the Brazilian oil sector. The company is a mixed capital corporation that operates in the exploration, production, refining, commercialization, transportation, import, and export of oil and oil products. It also operates in the natural gas segment, in oil product distribution, in petrochemicals, and in fertilizers. The company's main domestic clients are oil products and natural gas distributors as well as major industrial consumers. The pattern is : 0- 5 harmonic pattern . the target is C = 24.19 resistant 1 = 19 . support 1 = 15.26 . Stop loss = 14.49 . Wishing the best luck for you . by hussain9Published 112
Small shares here. Add upon 14.73 close or better. Target 15.75www.stocksetups.comLongby BarkerPublished 112
Petroleo Brasileiro - buy signalPBR seems coming out from a prolonged bear trend. Interesting action today 06June2014 with a gap and move upward. I'm entering long above today high targeting the next resistance (15.88) but this could be a major bottom for PBR. Monitoring oil prices and oil companies in parallel. Longby LEONESPublished 331
PZE will follow the bearish trend of PTRBPTRB touched again the resistance, it enter now in a bearish trend. PZE will most likely follow.Shortby PieterVrins4dPublished 110
PBRfrom a long term perspective, im staying away from this stock. declining 30 week ema, i need to see consolidation for probably at least a few months to a year like what we see in the blue boxes. it's probably closer to the bottom than the top but that doesn't mean it will go up and stay up. dips are still making V bottoms and not W bottoms yet. also even if we break the declining orange trendline, we may just revert to a less steep decline. i want to see higher highs and lower lows. There is just too much nearby overhead resistance to consider a long without a lot of positive confirmation. i think stock might turn out to be a good buy if we wait a while for it to develop a nice stage 1 base. maybe another 6 months to 2 years.by yomofoVPublished 112
PBR - Hunting for value investment ideasOn the heels of some fantastic pics for 2013 (GLW,PWRD, DRYS to name a few) the WDB options model is suggesting we take a close look at some names that are either not in the market spotlight at the moment or outright disliked. PBR is on that list and after further investigation the much maligned company appears to be an interesting idea. The model's basic premise is to find Put options, where if written and exercised the premium collected would be greater then the cost of owning a stock on margin. In essence getting paid by the market to hold the position. While fundamentally this company, in my opinion, is a very good 'value' the technical story is still a bit early. She is definitely oversold (Willy) but there doesn't seem to be a bottom in either price or volume. This suggests to me that if one did do the option write here, getting exercised is a very real possibility and you may need to hold the position for some time. Considering the nice dividend, for every quarter we do own the position our premium collected goes up by 6 cents this isn't too bad a place to have some money working heading into the 2014 World Cup.Longby CRInvestorPublished 222
PBR is undervaluedI wish I could go into more detail, but cannot for the sake of conciseness. PBR is extremely undervalued. Revenues and FCF have grown significantly since the beginning of operations for the company, yet it is trading as if it's moving into bankruptcy. If they begin to pay down corporate debt, shareholder value will be unlocked. Market concerns: Brazil has 5-6% inflation and gov't seems to weigh down PBR's potential. Technicals: Volatility suggests that PBR is likely nearing a long term bottom. The largest spikes in volatility were in 2003, 2009, and now in 2014. Also, the falling wedge (bullish formation) may suggest a break-out to the upside. Each RELATIVE entry point ended up delivering massive returns. With that said, there will be continued volatility, however $10.27 is a VERY good price in my opinion. I will most likely open a (100k) position in PBR tomorrow. LT PT: $20-$30. Questions? Comment below. Thanks. Longby Tech_timePublished 887