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PCG trade ideas
PCG log entry: ReversalIt's safe to say we have a short-term top in play. This count shows a zigzag for 1, which means we are in 2 right now.
The premarket data shows a different count, and we could go all the way back down to 6 in an alternative count.
There is also another count where we completed a 4th wave from March highs, and so we could go below ATL.
PCG log entry triangle revisitedGoing over the idea of the triangle. It doesn't have to be perfect all the time, and there may be some slight interruptions of the the trendlines. This may be a triangle breakout. THere is a nice diagonal forming, and it is risky to call this ending diagonal as it can also be a leading diagonal. It is very dangerous to short right now because of the possible triangle BO. I will wait for lower prices and see if my alternative count is correct, if not then so be it.
PCG Entry #1From now on, I will be using this as a diary and will be labeling it as such. This is primarily for backtesting of ideas.
I think this is the most proper count so far. After b completes it is not clear how low c will fall, so I'll take it one day at a time.
Triangle BO or Something Else?We are out of the triangle that I was describing for the past week. But there was no volume on the break out and the c leg of the triangle was very short compared to the d and e leg. The orange is an alternative count (double zigzag) that may be forming.
Double Three CorrectionFirstly, I want to apologize for having so many iterations of EW counts for this stock. There are alot of possibilities and a good Elliot wave practitioner always has to keep an open mind.
Secondly, we know definitely that an impulse was created from the October lows that brought us to the 8 area, this was followed by 3 moves down to 6 area then another 3 moves back to the 8 area. If this was a simple correction we would have expected 5 moves down to 6 area to complete a flat. But after topping at around 8 on the 18th things got complicated and that's why I have so many counts.
Lastly, one of those counts which is possible is a Double three correction or WXY. In this case basically we are forming a zigzag-zigzag-triangle. Here is a good website. ewminteractive.com
Hopefully this count works out unless I think of something more probable.
Triangle vs. Rising wedgeWe have two options right now. If this is a triangle we will break out above 8, if this is a rising wedge 8 should provide resistance. Look for volume breakout if it is a triangle. Also, if we fall out of rising wedge before the weekend and touch lower trendline of triangle, triangle becomes more likely. Important decision happening today. So market could be waiting on that.
Double Zigzag updateI've identified another way a double zigzag can form. This observation has us in the "a" leg of the second zigzag that has not yet complete. My other posts talk about how we are making a b wave of the X wave of the double zigzag. However, this is equally possible. We won't know for sure until we retrace from 8 area. If we retrace to .618 from last weeks low, this count is correct. If however we retrace all the way down to last week's low, this count is incorrect and the linked count is correct.
One thing I've noticed from backtesting double zigzags is that the "a" leg of the second zigzag exceeds the first zigzag. If that is the case we shouldn't expect a double zigzag until this occurs. This may happen on the next wave up we are currently in.
PCG - Techincal analysisCrazy talks apart - weather, number of clients, too big to fail etc,
On pure technical analysis, the stock is on a small uptrend with a bull flag formation. Volume on the sell and buy side is low and neutral, meaning there is not much volatility - which means it is on accumulation phase.
A breakdown at these levels will bring the price to 6.40 and 5.90.
Breakout at 7.75 with volume (ending the day above 7.75) will push the next target to 8.55ish and a previous gap fill of 8.95
Complex patternThis has been a very tough stock to forecast recently. THere is some news coming in tomorrow, so that may have some effect. Right now I believe we are in b wave of the second leg of the double zigzag. This can form a flat or triangle. I drew a triangle but truthfully it can still form a flat. I might just put in a order when it hits the trendline again.
Bear Flag???It looks like we are forming a descending triangle which is a bear flag. From the current price I expect this to retest the support at 5.79 and bounce once again to the resistance which is a declining line. Lastly. it will fall back to test 5.79 support which will explode to the downside.
making the x wavethis action appears very corrective. When you have a correction with a correction, it means you are correcting the correction also known as an X wave. I believe this is the X wave of the double zigzag. Should get down move back to last week's pivot low.
Double ZigzagTriangle did not work so far, This move does not feel impulsive like we broke out of a triangle. This is another possible count.
PCG - breakout??is pcg due for a breakout??
I think I'm being too optimistic.
The 200EMA resistance hasn't been broken since October (it was more of a false breakout)!! The trendline probably won't hold.. let's see how this week goes
Critical JunctionIs it a triangle or flat? That's what I'm debating. The triangle is labelled in Black and the the C wave of the flat in yellow. A triangle is really a failed flat. What would be the 1-2-i of the c wave of a flat turns out to be actually the c-d-e waves of a triangle because of overwhelming bullishness. The safest thing to do is wait for the breakout, 7 will be a critical number I think on Monday.
Hopefully you find this educational.
Two triangles possibleAs you can see, we have two triangles a bigger one in red and a smaller one in black. If we bounce off the smaller one than we were dealing with a smaller degree b wave and we should go to 8.5 if we bounce off the bigger triangle we are dealing with a larger degree b wave and we should expect 12ish.
Potential Triangle identified, new patternThis is now a likely alternative to occur. I was looking for us to hit 8.5 before going down to 5.8 so that we can fulfill criteria for an expanding flat. This may be one way we could do it. If lower trendline holds tomorrow, this could launch next week.
PG&E 15 minute ascending wedge.Ascending wedges can go either way. This depends on whether or not the fires stop and if PG&E can keep their customers lights on.
Short-term pattern IdentifiedThis is the most probable pattern for PCG is making right now. It is a flat, we are coming down in 5 waves for c of the flat. Should finish around ~6 area.
Updated short-term countLooks like a flat is going to be forming. ED of a subwave flat is finishing. If you look closely we have a flat within a flat within a flat. Don't be confused this is all corrective, the giveaway is all the overlap that is occurring. We are also bouncing off downtrendline that is acting as support.
