PTON ez shortshould be a quick and easy short. jumped way too much after that precor acquisition imo and is consequently overbought in the year chart this should correct 10% to 20% if I had to guess in the short term. generally speaking the stock price of the company that is acquiring the other should dip as a result of the acquisition yet the opposite is the case for peloton. I understand the fundamental case that precor can help them better fulfill their backlog but a $5.3 billion increase in market cap as a result of an acquisition of a $420 million company does not equate to me.
PTON trade ideas
Why Peloton had a Gap-up on Acquisition NewsBackground
Peloton is the largest interactive fitness platform in the world. It combines exercise equipment with an interactive digital experience featuring energetic trainers to motivate customers to stay fit.
Peloton is one of the pandemic businesses that took off during lock-downs, causing people to cancel their in-person fitness subscriptions and find solutions to work out at home. That has caused a backlog of equipment orders that grew from $360m in June 2020 to $520m in September 2020.
Peloton's business model is built on not only the sale of high quality exercise equipment, but also the continuation of subscription payments from customers. Growth of the subscription base largely depends on the delivery of exercise equipment to customers.
So when Peloton released Q1 earnings in November, investors became nervous with the increasing backlog of equipment orders. News on the street said customers are complaining and starting to abandon orders that are taking over 10 weeks to arrive in some cases. If customers cancel orders, they also do not turn into subscribers.
On December 21, Peloton announced it would acquire fitness equipment manufacturer Pecor. Typically a company announcing an acquisition will drop in stock price. But Peloton gapped up on December 22, gaining 11.65% for the day.
Pecor brings two huge benefits for Peloton that investors love. One is increased manufacturing capacity to improve delivery times on equipment orders. The other is to plug Pecor's existing customer base into Peloton's world-class fitness content, accelerating subscription growth.
Fundamentals
Sales YoY growth of 66%, 172% and 232% last three quarters
EPS of -0.20, 0.27 and 0.20 last three quarters
Tripled # of funds since previous year
Subscription growth is 137% YoY previous quarter
Monthly Subscription Churn is 0.65%
Technical
829% price increase since March lows (427% YTD)
71.24% from gap-down low on 11/9
26% to 50d MA
PTON is a little too extended to buy. Best to wait for a pull-back or high, tight flag and look for a proper entry.
PTON, Breakout Setup for PT 169Setup shows U shape recovery and stock trying to break out. A huge volume indicates the crowd is anticipating a breakout here. Then room to go around 169 as per measure move. Wait for breakout, retests and holds support to confirm. The only concern is on RSI is enter into the overbought area.
Buy Area: 139
PT: 169
SL: 129.37
Disclaimer: I"m NOT a financial advisor. All trades idea are shared for educational purposes only. All advice is based on technical and my own opinion.
PTON, Aroon Indicator entered an UptrendOver the last three days, Tickeron's A.I.dvisor has detected that PTON's AroonUp green line (see chart) is above 70, while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the green line goes above 70 while the red line stays below 30, this is an indicator that the stock could be poised for a strong Uptrend. For traders, this could mean going long the stock or exploring call options in the next month. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor backtested this indicator and found 99 similar cases, 92 of which were successful. Based on this data, the odds of success are 90%. Current price $142.91 is above $123.02 the highest resistance line found by Tickeron A.I. Throughout the month of 11/17/20 - 12/18/20, the price experienced a +36% Uptrend. During the week of 12/11/20 - 12/18/20, the stock enjoyed a +19% Uptrend growth.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PTON just turned positive on November 30, 2020. Looking at past instances where PTON's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise, Tickeron A.I. detected that in 9 of 10 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
PTON moved above its 50-day Moving Average on December 10, 2020 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day Moving Average for PTON crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on December 15, 2020. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. Tickeron A.I. detected that in 4 of 4 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +4.36% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PTON advanced for three days, in 79 of 85 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. Tickeron A.I. detected that in 92 of 99 cases where PTON Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
PTON_Weeklyplay?I would play it weekly with the highs from PTON think it may have price pressure currently, but it will be a great buy if you have the patience...Neutral for now, but I think it is a great COVID play that may rotate out depending on Operation Warp Speed....ZM is also a stock that one needs to consider while the rollout happens in the next few months...
1 HR RSI, Overbought PlayGetting puts when PTON is overbought at 1HR hasn't failed me yet, got some ATM put lotto for tomorrow here.
Target is ~119 or where dotted blue line is. If it doesn't bounce there, would continue to be bearish until back at RSI 30 1 HR.
If it holds above orange line, next target is ~160.
Christmas Rally Short SqueezeI get it, Peleton is a hot stock and seems like a great product during the 2020 pandemic/ Bullmarket boogaloo. But, if you heard about a stationary bike company that was valued at 40 BILLION dollars any other time you would not want to become a new investor. I expect this stock to continue to do well this December due to Holiday shopping season and Fed QE . But, as the world population becomes vaccinated and Life returns to some sort of normalcy, this should slowly fade away. Of course the market is always forward looking, so I expect a pullback from a double peak chart pattern in January.
TA interpretation + Personal Opinion = not investment advice*
Best of Luck!
YOUR MASTER IS BACK!!!!!!!!!!BABY LISTEN BUY PELOTON HAND OVER FIST THIS IS GOING TO 150. JUST LOOK AT THE FUCKING CHART EVERY MONKEY WITH HALF A BRAIN CAN SEE THIS. IM NOT GOING TO GET INTO FURTHER DETAIL BECAUSE ITS FUCKING OBVIOUS THIS GOING TO 150 BY JANUARY. VALUATION? PFFT WHAT IS THAT?
DEGENERATE? BUY THE 140 WEEKLY CALLS
SNOWFLAKE? BUY 3/19/21 150 CALLS
DONT LISTEN TO NO ONE BUT ME! NOT EVEN YOUR SIGNIFICANT OTHER!
ANY ONE TELLING YOU OTHER WISE IS A COMPLETE BOZO.