I am going to wait for a little pullback before I go long.I want to see the midline of the Bollinger Band have an upward slant (uptrend) before I take this trade. I think $255+ is easily obtainable in 7-10 trading days. I do like the price action and volume and the CCI is moving upward indicating big money players have initiated positions and that's always a good thing.
SAM trade ideas
Boston Beer Reportedly in Sale Talks to SuntoryAccording to Wall Street, which cited anonymous sources, Boston Beer saw a spike in value on Friday, as the American brewer is in discussions to sell the business to the international spirits major Suntory.
On the announcement, Boston Beer Company Inc. (NYSE:SAM) had a gain of almost 30%.
The sources told WSJ that although negotiations are still in their early stages, there is no guarantee that a deal would be reached and that a rival bidder may emerge.
Though demand has been hurt by shifting customer preferences, Boston Beer has had a difficult year thus far. This has given rise to rumors of a sale.
After collaborating with Boston Beer to create new spirits and ready-to-drink drinks in 2021, Suntory is well-acquainted with the latter.
Technical Outlook
Boston Beer stock ( NYSE:SAM ) closed Fridays trading session up 22.33% with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 68.64 which is slightly overbought. The daily price chart pattern showed a "Bullish Harami" pattern which is a strong bullish reversal pattern.
Boston Beer Company’s (SAM) Expected MovementPrice Momentum
SAM is trading near the bottom of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average.
Price change
The price of SAM shares has increased $15.63 since the market last closed. This is a 4.89% rise.
Opened at $325.86.
The stock opened $6.22 higher than its previous close.
Investors have been pushing the share price lower, and the stock still appears to have downward momentum. This is a negative sign for the stock's future value.
Craft Beer Seltzer Alcohol Barometer: Sam Adam's Boston Beer Co.Alcohol consumption
When averaged over two years, 2021-2022, 63% of U.S. adults aged 18 and older consumed alcohol. Gallup, Inc. indicates that "the drinking rate ticks up to 65% when narrowed to adults of legal drinking age" of 21. When segmented based on demographic characteristics:
Eighty percent of adults, 18 and older, living in households with annual incomes of $100,000 or more consumed alcohol in 2021/2022.
Only 49% of those living in a household with an annual income of less than $40,000 consumed the beverages.
Likewise, the higher the level of education, the greater the percentage of adults in the cohort who had consumed an alcoholic beverage, while the incidence of consumption decreased as age increased.
A nearly equal percentage of men and women consumed alcohol, 66 and 61%, respectively, when averaged over the two years.
Pertaining to race and ethnicity, 68% of non-Hispanic white adults, 59% of Hispanic adults, and 50% of non-Hispanic black adults consumed alcohol.
Another source, The 2023 Silicon Valley Bank Wine Report, states data from the Wine Market Council:
28% of consumers were "abstainer ," which "has increased 4 percentage points since the 2017 survey."
18% were "core wine drinker " who "drink wine at least once a week," which decreased from 21% in 2017.
15% were "marginal" who "prefer wine…and consume wine at least every two to three months… wine consumers who drink wine one to three times a month," which decreased from 19% in 2017.
The remaining consume "alcohol, not wine" (29%) or are "infrequent alcohol" consumers (10%).
Alcoholic beverage preferences and purchases
When asked to indicate their beverage category of choice, 30% of consumers preferred liquor, 31% wine, and 35% beer. Another source, IRI, reports that 16% of alcoholic beverage consumers drink beer exclusively, 13% drink only wine, and 11% only spirits. Consumption of more than one category is as follows:
Beer and wine, 13%,
Beer and spirits, 12%,
Wine and spirits, 9%, and
All three types, 27%.
When segmented based on consumption frequency, for consumers between ages 21 and 39 years, Wine Opinions found the following:
Half (51%) of those who drank beer consumed the beverage "weekly or more often," 24% consumed the beverage 2-3 times a month," 8% "about once a month," and the remaining 17% consumed beer "less often or never."
For wine and spirits, the percentage of consumers who drank the beverages at each reported frequency was similar: 30% of those who drank the beverages consumed them "weekly or more often," a third consumed the beverages "2-3 times a month," 16% "about once a month," and 21% of wine drinkers and 20% of those who drank spirits consumed them "less often or never."
Those who consumed beer on a weekly, or more frequent, basis were more likely to be males, weekly wine consumers were more likely to be female, and "consumption of spirits is even by gender."
SAM bounced back from strong support. SAM price has retraced 70 % from all time high to current price level at $ 384 coincide with most transacted price level at $ 384 over the last 5 years.
Golden Cross just appear on the MACD fast/slow lines signally upside potential of price.
Smart MCDX's "green" bar retreating with increasing yellow bar "hot money" signalling potential short term bullishness.
Current price level has been tested three times on weekly candle and current candle bounced back to weekly MA 200 resistance line, if it breaks through resistance , highly likely it will continue to rally.
Target price - $555 over next 6 months.
Boston Beer running up W Formation breakoutW Formation has formed after an extended downtrend.
The price has broken above and has a likelihood of running up.
Price above all MAs
Target $571.54
CONCERNS:
After a steep downtrend, the price is still vulnerable for upside. Either it rallies hard and furious. Or the market comes back down into the formation.
Either way, we have out signal to go long.
SAM - Time to bottoms up?After having fallen a whopping nearly 79% from it's peak in April 2021, SAM appears to be finally turning the corner, after forming a rounded base in the past 7-8 months.
It hit rock bottom on 16 June, right where it was a former low during Covid crisis (March 2020). A month later, there was a strong spike in volume due to earnings beat (by 1.11%, not too fantastic, but still a beat nevertheless). The stock then pretty much went nowhere until last Friday, after it reported a much stronger earnings beat this time.
What is significant this time is that it managed to gap up and close above the base formation neckline @ 396, a 19.7% rise within a day. Weekly RSI is strong and rising.
However there is a near term resistance at 407 and we could see some consolidation around there. Buy the dips is probably a good idea.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
SAM: Boston Beer CompanyLooking to follow his family’s passion for brewing, Jim brewed the recipe in his kitchen with the hopes of challenging the status quo in the American beer industry. He started by introducing American drinkers to craft-brewed beers that were full-flavored, balanced, and complex, and brewed with quality ingredients. Pleased with his brew, Jim started The Boston Beer Company with his co-founder and first employee, Rhonda Kallman. In those first months, Jim walked bar-to-bar with a briefcase full of beer that he called Samuel Adams Boston Lager, in recognition of one of our nation's great founding fathers, a revolutionary man of independent mind and spirit. Boston Lager soon became a catalyst of the American craft beer revolution, making its public debut in Boston on Patriot's Day in April 1985. Six weeks after its introduction, Boston Lager was selected as "The Best Beer in America" in The Great American Beer Festival's Consumer Preference Poll, which became an award Samuel Adams Boston Lager went on to win an unprecedented four times.
If you're unfamiliar as to what beverages are made by SAM, think Samuel Adams (of course), Angry Orchard, Twisted Tea, Truly (seltzer) among others. While you may not be hip to 'Boston Brewing Company', if you enjoy alcoholic beverages, chances are you've indulged in at least one of their products.
More fascinating to me than the number of household brands this company supports is the wave structure of its all-time price action. If one didn't believe in the power of an extended 3rd wave before now, feast your eyes on its magically vertical increase in price, practically since inception! For what its worth, I have no stock or positions with SAM however, as an Elliott Wave fanatic, I'm excited to show the power of such a move.
To get ahead of the wave and find potential moves like these (or avoid the downfall that comes after a completed wave cycle), join us on the waves.
$SAM one of the biggest beer companies in the US.After missing 4 earnings reports the stock has taken quite a hit, down almost $1,000 per share since April 21'. However it found support in the 288 range and bounced aprox. 30% and then a positive earning report beating estimates, 20 day EMA positive crossover of the 100 day EMA supports uptrend as the 20 EMA is appearing to become support. The only problem I see is it is still trading under the 200 day EMA and the trend could also be affected by upcoming earnings in October. Looking at the chart and financials I believe it has 3 gaps to fill on the upside, it is currently trading at 381 and has gaps at 471, 747, and 907 respectively. In April of 21' it was trading at $1,350 at its peak on revenue of aprox. 550 Million, Net Income of 65 Million, and Gross Profit of 250 Million. As of now the company recorded revenue of 616 Million, Net Income of 53 Million, and Gross Profit of 265 Million. As revenue and gross profit has increased and a positive earnings report in July I believe it has room to the upside as the market is driven by financials, all be it net income is still down 10 Million (mostly due to over estimations of Truly Seltzer) it is seeing strength in its ''Beyond Beer'' brands and Twisted Tea expanded its number one position in the FMB category as well as Angry Orchard is showing prominent command in the hard cider category. They are also expecting a launch of Hard Mountain Dew, if consumers take a liking to that and their other brands continue strength I believe it is possible to fill the 471 gap before FY22 ends, as for the other gaps it could take some more time. It is also noted beer sales have a potential to rise in times of economic downturn. I will remain bullish unless it breaks the 288 range.
SAM - changing of trendSAM- Boston beer company might be turning its course. After dipping to covid lows and giving all the 400% gains back it's coming back to live and today was up 6.19%. Earnings were much better than the past three Qs. Interesting to observe this one and see if confirms the uptrend in the next weeks. Positive divergence present.
The Boston Beer Company (NYSE: $SAM) Looking Very Tempting 🍺The Boston Beer Company, Inc. produces and sells alcohol beverages primarily in the United States. The company's flagship beer is Samuel Adams Boston Lager. It offers various beers, hard ciders, and hard seltzers under the Samuel Adams, Twisted Tea, Truly Hard Seltzer, Angry Orchard, Dogfish Head, Angel City, Coney Island, Concrete Beach brand names. The company markets and sells its products to a network of approximately 400 wholesalers in the United States, as well as international wholesalers, importers, or other agencies that in turn sell to retailers, such as grocery stores, club stores, convenience stores, liquor stores, bars, restaurants, stadiums, and other retail outlets. It also sells in products in Canada, Europe, Israel, Australia, New Zealand, the Caribbean, the Pacific Rim, Mexico, and Central and South America. The Boston Beer Company, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is based in Boston, Massachusetts.
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$SAM Fair Value Around 300 or LessA series of unfortunate events is just continuing. Now, the company itself expects a likely loss this year (from -$1 to +$1 per stock), plus a depletions and shipments growth next year of low double-digits at the most. Then what should an investor expect? A 15-20 forward P/E at the most, if you are still optimistic. Which gives us around $300 per stock or less given the analyst's projections of EPS 17.8 next year. But those projections also sound optimistic.
Unfortunately, I am a holder at this point, so I'm planning to add some around $300. They might still win long term with TRULY, who knows. If they want to compete for dominance in the hard seltzer category, their strategy is reasonable. Risky, too.
$SAM potential bottom (3/5)Conviction: 3/5
General Thesis
potential bullish div on weekly RSI @ oversold levels
could go down more to touch lower channel support (2008)
fallen about 50%, normally fall 61.8%
Growth
Gross margins have steadily decreased since 2011
Revenue growth experienced high growth in 2020-2021, but have come down from 50% to about 15%
Value
P/FCF expensive (negative FCF)
P/S about average
Fundamentals & Balance Sheet
low debt to asset (<1)
quick ratio could be better (.8)
Potential Risks
expensive P/FCF
another leg down for bullish divergence
another leg down to touch lower trend line support
SAM ready to start movingNot a financial advisor.
SAM has been beaten down badly, and currently has a legal battle about its previous earnings.
SAM is looking to recovery here and move bullish. I want to see this break above $580 and come back and test support. Should be looking to get over $700 in the near term.
SAM is a beer giant, there is no doubt in my mind that they stay at these levels long. This is a $1000 stock mid to long term. There is a gap at the 900 level, that will eventually get filled. Technicals are all drastically cooled off, this will see a good run to come.
Green line is my expiration date for my options I purchased here.
Chime in with any questions or concerns.