Minute by minute hour by hour... SMCI a trap for Shorts....Minute by minute hour by hour... SMCI a trap for Shorts....
Minute by minute hour by hour... SMCI a trap for Shorts....
Minute by minute hour by hour... SMCI a trap for Shorts....
SMCI trade ideas
Huge Opportunity: Bullish Perspective on SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) recently saw significant interest as Rakuten Securities purchased 61,071 shares. After a substantial decline, SMCI is now trading near a key support level around $22, showing potential for a recovery.
If the stock rebounds to $62, this could represent a +173% return.
The company!This company has no fundamental issues. It’s the second most important client for NASDAQ:NVDA , with the most efficient and modern cooling system available, supporting #Grok by #XAI by #ElonMusk. It suffered a setback due to rumors started by a hedge fund. Later, just before it could timely present its 10-K filing, an unprofessional auditor from Ernst and Young resigned, leading to another crisis. However, the company has stepped up, and, to top it off, all the VPs, along with the CEO, bought shares frantically.
Now, technically speaking, the structures are there, with a mega bull flag pattern that could take us back to the 90s.
Is it worth the wait?
I believe it is.
SMCI is going...Price broke above descending triangle, I like it above $28
With NVDA strength, this is probably a great setup to retest $31 today
Watching this closely
SMCI buy right now.TARGET -> 70$ T1, 110 T2
SMCI Stock Poised to Boom After Audited Results, BlackRock and Vanguard Buy In
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), a leader in high-performance server solutions, is set to experience significant stock growth once its results are fully audited. Institutional giants BlackRock and Vanguard are betting big on SMCI, signaling confidence in the company’s future. Here’s why SMCI could see a major boost:
1. Strong Market Position
SMCI is well-positioned in the rapidly growing sectors of AI, cloud computing, and data infrastructure. With rising demand for powerful servers and storage solutions, SMCI’s products are integral to the digital transformation happening across industries.
2. Audit and Transparency
SMCI has faced financial scrutiny, but the company is finalizing its audits. Once complete, transparency about its earnings will give investors more confidence, which could drive a significant stock price rebound.
3. Institutional Confidence: BlackRock & Vanguard
Both BlackRock and Vanguard, two of the world’s largest asset managers, have been increasing their stakes in SMCI. Their investments signal strong confidence in the company’s growth potential, especially once the audit clears up any uncertainties.
4. Growth Catalysts
Improved Transparency: The completed audit should eliminate doubts, potentially boosting the stock.
AI & Data Center Demand: Continued growth in AI and data infrastructure supports SMCI’s long-term prospects.
Strong Earnings: Analysts expect SMCI to benefit from its solid product pipeline and market demand.
Partnerships: New strategic partnerships with tech giants could further fuel growth.
5. Risks
While SMCI’s outlook is strong, risks include delays in the audit, competitive pressures, and macroeconomic factors like supply chain issues or rising interest rates.
6. Conclusion
With the audit’s completion on the horizon and strong backing from BlackRock and Vanguard, SMCI is poised for significant upside. Investors should keep an eye on the stock, as it could see substantial growth once clarity around its financials is achieved.
SMCI Short IdeaI haven't bothered trading SMCI since my short on it earlier this year. This thing actually almost went to $0. It just bottomed out finally and had a nice broadening wedge breakout. Looks like it's about time to short it again. It may head up to the gap fill at $32.20, if so I'll look for more puts. Entering anywhere in this area is good for a move back down to the $21 area.
Risky play, will need to exit quickly if it doesn't reject at $32.20.
Price Prediction for $SMCI: Potential Rebound Amid Market TrendsOverview: Super Micro Computer, Inc. ( NASDAQ:SMCI ), a leading player in the high-performance computing sector, has faced some volatility in recent months. However, a combination of key factors—ranging from the rise of AI, an ongoing cryptocurrency boom, and broader market trends—suggest that NASDAQ:SMCI is well-positioned to rebound and potentially reach new highs.
1. AI Growth and Its Impact on High-Performance Computing:
The AI revolution, particularly the rise of generative AI and machine learning, is significantly driving demand for powerful computing infrastructure. NASDAQ:SMCI specializes in high-performance servers, data centers, and enterprise solutions that cater to the increasing needs of AI-heavy workloads. The growth in AI adoption by both tech giants and startups is pushing the demand for advanced computing systems that NASDAQ:SMCI provides. As AI-related applications scale, the need for more efficient and powerful hardware solutions will likely translate into increased revenue for $SMCI.
2. Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Trends:
Cryptocurrency has surged to all-time highs, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets seeing significant increases in value. This trend often leads to higher demand for mining equipment, which NASDAQ:SMCI manufactures. Even though crypto mining isn't as profitable as it once was due to energy costs and regulatory concerns, the overall demand for blockchain infrastructure and server solutions remains robust. As the broader blockchain ecosystem matures and institutions invest further into decentralized finance (DeFi) and Web3 technologies, NASDAQ:SMCI stands to benefit from the need for more scalable, secure, and energy-efficient server solutions.
3. Market Trends and Valuation:
Despite some short-term volatility, the broader tech market is showing signs of resilience. Companies in the semiconductor and data center sectors, especially those tied to next-gen computing like NASDAQ:SMCI , have benefitted from robust earnings reports and demand for cloud services, AI applications, and high-performance computing. The current market correction may present a buying opportunity, as NASDAQ:SMCI ’s core business fundamentals remain strong.
4. Supply Chain Improvements and Operational Efficiency:
NASDAQ:SMCI has made strides in improving its supply chain and operational efficiency. With the global chip shortage easing and its diversification into various high-margin markets, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on growing demand in AI and blockchain sectors. This, combined with a more favorable operating environment, could lead to improved profitability and a stronger share price.
Conclusion:
Given the alignment of NASDAQ:SMCI ’s product offerings with key growth areas in AI and cryptocurrency, the stock has strong upside potential. The company is positioned to benefit from the rising demand for high-performance computing, both in the AI and blockchain sectors, which should drive earnings growth. As the broader tech market stabilizes and investor sentiment improves, NASDAQ:SMCI could see a substantial rebound in share price.
Price Target: $75.00 + over the next 12 months, contingent on continued market growth in AI and cryptocurrency, as well as stable operational performance.
$ SMCI Target $ 65.0 Technical and Fundamental AnalysisAfter-hours price : Current: $ 29.50
Technical Analysis
• Key Levels: Crossing and holding above $28 on a weekly close could act as a launchpad for targets of $35 and $42. The bullish trajectory depends on maintaining this support level.
Future Price Targets
• If BDO, SMCI's new auditor, resolves accounting issues without regulatory challenges, the company could aim for a long-term price target of $65. This would rely on continued growth in AI-driven hardware markets and restored investor confidence
Fundamental Analysis
• Revenue and Earnings Growth: SMCI's revenue grew significantly in recent quarters, driven by demand in AI and data center markets. Forward EPS growth projections for the next two years are 41.3%
• Valuation Metrics: SMCI's forward P/E ratio of 5.43 and a PEG ratio of 0.15 highlight a strong value-growth balance
• Margins: Over the last ten quarters, SMCI has shown gross margins averaging around 15.97%, with operating margins of 9.72% and net profit margins of 8.88%. These metrics indicate stable profitability but room for improvement in operational efficiency
.
Summary
SMCI's technical breakout above $28 could unlock medium-term targets of $35 and $42, with the potential for $65 long-term if its operational and accounting challenges are addressed. Monitoring its new auditor’s progress and market developments in AI hardware will be crucial.
*Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.*
SMCI Hitting a Long Term Support ChannelFell back all the way down to a long term support channel - could be a great buying opportunity if it holds
This is MY idealized Chart for SMCI long term ...This is MY idealized Chart for SMCI long term ...
Still millions short this company
meanwhile the Adani Group, a recent victim of the Hindenburg Report has recovered. Prices went back up already, to the pre raid level with the exception of two that are on the way up.
SMCI is lead by this very hard working man with a sterling reputation, "Charles Laing", an inventor with multiple patents and 9 critical patents for this segment. Read them you will understand.
What happened here is a terrible thing, massive capital destruction that should have no place in the market. One of these days, I hope a huge investigation takes place. For now the Adani Group was cleared from all accusations. SMCI will follow suit
SMCI Update - Closed Tesla but SMCI is a Trade I think we are now ready to start trading smci avery day, to the long side only, you do not want to die prematurely. This is for day trader and super agile traders. You are on your on, remember, no one to blame but you. Having said this.
The street is aware that SMCI has super products, they are really ahead, overall a better system that takes less time to produce and configure, is is 60% cheaper to operate because the liquid cooling does save electricity, and they are up and running in half the time a Dell would be.
So just like when Tesla was being crucified, remember Tesla at $100 or NVDA at close to nothing just two month ago. Well. This is very similar with SMCI.
Now I do calculate the float and the movement of shares. I think there must be some 55% short the stock. This is an outrage, so crowded, that it is primed for an explosion and when it does it will exceed $124, and go to $186.66 the new value based on the new 13.7% marines Up form 8%
Again do verify, trust no one and research. I love this ticker, because I bought it very cheap. Obvios. to the rest that did not do this, I think you will be ok, with a bounce higher than before.
SMCI Ankle BrakerSMCI made incredible bearish move due to all recent news in regards company financial. Company will be reporting soon.
I am short term bullish for a gap closure which will be made before reports in order to pump prices before "Breaking Ankles" to the downside.
I am watching for a possible move up to the $46.85 to quickly sell of down to the previous FVP. Once it hits level and depending on reports company might once again slowly run up like Walgreens did.
SMCI intraday bull flag setupafter a big move, SMCI is settling into a bullish flag setup. A break out could see another leg higher.
Can a Tech Giant Rewrite Its Future While Racing Against Time?In a remarkable display of corporate resilience, Super Micro Computer stands at the intersection of crisis and opportunity, navigating regulatory challenges while simultaneously revolutionizing the AI infrastructure landscape. As the company addresses its Nasdaq compliance requirements through comprehensive reforms, including the strategic appointment of BDO USA as its new independent auditor, it hasn't missed a beat in its technological innovation trajectory - a feat that has left critics and supporters watching intently.
The numbers tell a compelling story of growth amidst adversity: a staggering 110% revenue surge to $15 billion in FY2024, coupled with a nearly 90% increase in adjusted earnings. But, perhaps more impressive is Supermicro's technical leadership, maintaining an 18-24 month advantage over competitors in liquid-cooled AI rack technology and demonstrating the capability to deploy 100,000-GPU liquid-cooled AI data centers. This technical prowess, combined with strategic partnerships with industry giants like NVIDIA, positions Supermicro at the forefront of the AI infrastructure revolution.
Looking ahead, Supermicro's journey represents more than just a corporate turnaround story - it's a masterclass in organizational agility and strategic focus. While many companies might have faltered under the weight of regulatory scrutiny, Supermicro has instead used this moment as a catalyst for transformation, strengthening its corporate governance while accelerating its innovation pipeline. With analyst projections indicating 40%+ earnings growth for FY2025 and revenue expected to surge over 70%, the company's trajectory suggests that sometimes, the most significant opportunities for growth emerge from the crucible of challenge.
The Big Exit | How One Auditor Walked Away from Super MicroThe Governance Shortfall: Inside Super Micro’s Auditor Crisis
On Wednesday, shares of the high performance server and storage solutions provider faced renewed selling pressure after the unexpected resignation of its audit firm, Ernst & Young LLP(EY)
In July 2024, EY alerted the Audit Committee about several concerns related to governance, transparency, internal controls, and the risk of delayed filing of the company's annual report. In response, the Board formed an independent Special Committee to investigate these matters, engaging Cooley LLP and forensic accounting firm Secretariat Advisors, LLC. Although EY and the Board received preliminary updates on the investigation, the final conclusions have not yet been shared.
The ongoing review raised doubts for EY regarding the company’s adherence to the COSO Framework principles for internal controls. EY questioned the company’s commitment to integrity, the independence of the Audit Committee, and the reliability of management’s and the Audit Committee's representations.
In its resignation letter, EY expressed its inability to rely on these representations or be associated with the company's financial statements, citing legal and professional obligations.
Despite the developments, Super Micro has indicated no expected changes to previously issued financial statements. The company plans to provide a Q1/FY2025 business update next week. However, it’s surprising that management didn’t include preliminary Q1 results in Wednesday's announcement, which could have mitigated the negative impact on its stock.
Super Micro is nearing a Nasdaq deadline to either regain compliance with listing requirements or submit a plan. With the auditor’s unexpected departure, it may be difficult for the company to present a viable plan, raising the risk of a near-term delisting.
This resignation comes at a critical time for Super Micro, as its rapid growth requires substantial working capital. Based on management’s projections, FY2025 cash needs could reach up to $3 billion, likely necessitating additional capital early next year. However, raising funds without audited financials could be challenging, potentially forcing Super Micro to relinquish market share to competitors like Dell Technologies or Hewlett Packard Enterprise.
In my view, EY’s departure increases the likelihood of a prolonged accounting review, which could hinder Super Micro’s ability to secure funding for anticipated growth. Therefore, it is crucial for the company to report strong preliminary Q1/FY2025 results and present a positive outlook next week.
Super Micro Computer’s troubles continue, as its auditor resigned due to concerns over management’s integrity and the Audit Committee's independence. This situation makes it unlikely for the company to achieve compliance with Nasdaq requirements soon, raising the potential for a near-term delisting.
With a need to re-enter the capital markets in early 2025, audited financials remain essential. A failure to secure funding could result in significant market share loss to major competitors like Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise.
Given these challenges, the increased risk of prolonged financial review, and a likely near-term delisting, I am reaffirming my "Sell" rating on Super Micro Computer's common shares.
SMCI AnalysisAt this stage, fundamentals take precedence when analyzing SMCI. While the chart reveals a clear Fibonacci retracement at the current price level (~$28), this also aligns with a strong resistance zone. Historically, such levels represent pivotal decision points for the market, and breaking through this level will require substantial momentum backed by positive fundamental developments about the company.
Recently, we saw a price spike after SMCI announced the appointment of a new auditor (BDO USA) and confirmed that it had filed the necessary compliance reports to meet Nasdaq requirements. This was a major step for the company, signaling its commitment to rebuilding trust and stability. From this point onward, good news is the only way forward if SMCI aims to achieve a strong stock price recovery.
The current price action reflects the significance of this area, with the stock potentially finding a base here. If upcoming news or developments favor the company, this resistance could be breached with strong bullish momentum. A breakthrough could trigger a rapid upward move, presenting a substantial opportunity to reach the $45 level—a key target that aligns with the next Fibonacci zone and historical price action.
In conclusion, while technicals suggest this is a critical point, the fundamentals will ultimately dictate the direction. Investors should stay alert for further updates, as the upside potential towards $45 is significant if the company continues to deliver positive news.
SMCI Possible Play's Again my cus trades stocks so I figured I would post what I charted up for him. When looking at possible play's you will need to go down to a 2min time frame to get your entries. With the gaps in these stocks it can be difficult to find entries with so much missing data. maybe I don't pay enough to see it . I cannot post lower time frames and zones but set up 30min wick highs / lows -zones 3 candles back and you will see the support and resistance
SMCI LONGThis one is a bit problematic, however there is a potential for a big squeeze here.
I think longs above 23 are ok with a stop at the recent low. Target is 35-38.
SMCI is -85% a buy opportunity while accounting issues continue?Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) still haven't found a new Auditing Firm, after it was announced last week that Ernst & Young left them raising governance and management communication issues. Yesterday's Low represents almost a -85% drop from the March $122.50 All Time High (ATH). So is this level a bargain and a buy opportunity for long-term investors?
Well while the company hasn't filed the necessary paperwork to meet the regulatory requirements to remain listed on the stock market and no auditor is hired to confirm and signs their reports, investor confidence will remain low (to say the least). It appears that SMCI has turned into the new short favorite for Hedge Funds and that's never ideal.
Technically though, the stock hit yesterday its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 4 years (since October 26 2020)! With that contact, the price initiated a strong multi-week rally that made a new High. This is a textbook buy for long-term investors. Of course it is all about risk and money management and since regulatory risks remain, the capital invested best to be less than usual.
Another technical factor supporting a buy on these levels is the 1W RSI, which got oversold (<30.00) for the first time since the weeks of March 16 2020 (almost 31.50) and October 01 2018 (U.S. - China trade wars). Both these times, SMCI kick-started enormous rallies.
The October 01 2018 bottom in particular is the starting date of the Fibonacci Channel Up on this chart, which encompasses SMCI's logarithmic growth these past years. As a result the company has only experienced 3 major long-term buy opportunities with the most recent 4 years ago.
At the same time, yesterday's Low didn't only make contact with Fibonacci 1.0 of the Channel Up (i.e. the initial top until the price turned parabolic and broke-out) but also almost touched the 0.382 horizontal Fib level, starting all the way from October 2018.
It is obvious that purely from a technical perspective such levels are as good as a buy can get. Proper risk management and an exit strategy are needed (in case of delisting) and long-term investors can be patient and take their time to target the $122.50 High again for enormous gains (could take even 1 year).
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[SMCI] High Risk / High RewardOn this asset I am wanting a very big profit in term of percentage.
By looking at the fundamental we have a very strong stock with a center of interest field but the news made it dump. As in 2017, I expect this stock to survive the crisis and to come back even stronger to target new highs.
This will be my first entry and will manage then to add.
Great trade !
