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SUPER MICRO COMPUTER, INCSS

SUPER MICRO COMPUTER, INC

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SMCI trade ideas

SMCI - Climbing out of the GRAVE! 100% UpsideNASDAQ:SMCI 🎯$64 🎯$85 Incoming WOW, from dead company to short attacks into oblivion this company has clawed back from the grave! - Inverse H&S - Fake Out on the S/R Zone - Green H5 with Bullish Cross - Volume shelf with GAP - Up Trending Wr% - RSI/ STOCH breaking out of downtrend If I was to enter this trade I would look for an entry at the retest of the Inverse H&S breakout (Blue Circle) while we also create a WCB! Not financial advice
NLong
by RonnieV29
Long Trade Setup Breakdown for (SMCI) 30Mins 🔹 Asset: Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) 🔹 Timeframe: 30-Min Chart 🔹 Setup Type: Ascending Wedge Breakout 🚀 Trade Plan (Long Position): ✅ Entry Zone: $47.96 (Breakout Confirmation) ✅ Stop-Loss (SL): $45.35 (Below Support) 🎯 Take Profit Targets (Long Trade): 📌 TP1: $51.05 (First Resistance) 📌 TP2: $54.64 (Extended Bullish Target) 📊 Risk-Reward Ratio Calculation: 📈 Risk (Stop-Loss Distance): $47.96 - $45.35 = $2.61 📈 Reward to TP1: $51.05 - $47.96 = $3.09 💰 Risk-Reward Ratio to TP1: 1:1.18 📈 Reward to TP2: $54.64 - $47.96 = $6.68 💰 Risk-Reward Ratio to TP2: 1:2.56 🔍 Technical Analysis & Strategy: 📌 Breakout Confirmation: Strong buying momentum above $47.96 signals continuation. 📌 Pattern Formation: Ascending wedge breakout, indicating bullish movement. 📊 Key Support & Resistance Levels: 🟢 $45.35 (Strong Support / SL Level) 🟡 $47.96 (Breakout Zone / Entry) 🔴 $51.05 (First Profit Target / Resistance) 🟢 $54.64 (Final Target for Momentum Extension) 🚀 Momentum Shift Expected: If price sustains above $47.96, it could push towards $51.05 and $54.64. A high-volume breakout would confirm the strength in trend continuation. 🔥 Trade Execution & Risk Management: 📊 Volume Confirmation: Ensure buying volume remains strong after breakout. 📈 Trailing Stop Strategy: If price reaches TP1 ($51.05), move SL to entry ($47.96) to lock in profits. 💰 Partial Profit Booking Strategy: ✔ Take 50% profits at $51.05, let the rest run to $54.64. ✔ Adjust Stop-Loss to Break-even ($47.96) after TP1 is hit. ⚠️ Fake Breakout Risk: If price drops below $47.96, be cautious and watch for a retest before re-entering. 🚀 Final Thoughts: ✔ Bullish Setup – If price holds above $47.96, higher targets are expected. ✔ Momentum Shift Possible – Watch for volume confirmation. ✔ Favorable Risk-Reward Ratio – 1:1.18 to TP1, 1:2.56 to TP2. 💡 Stick to the plan, manage risk, and trade smart! 🚀🏆 🔗 #StockTrading #SMCI #BreakoutTrade #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends #ProfittoPat
NLong
by ProfittoPath
$SMCI (SUPER MICRO COMPUTER): AI-DRIVEN GROWTH AMID GOVERNANCESMCI (SUPER MICRO COMPUTER): AI-DRIVEN GROWTH AMID GOVERNANCE WOES 1/8 Super Micro Computer ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) just revealed prelim Q2 FY2025 sales of $5.6–5.7B (+54% YoY), riding AI’s wave. But delayed filings & margin pressure spark caution. Let’s dig in! 💻⚡️ 2/8 – REVENUE & EARNINGS SNAPSHOT • Q2 sales: $5.7B (vs. $5.9B est.), EPS: ~$0.59 (est. $0.64) • Full-year outlook trimmed to $23.5–25B (was $26–30B) • Non-GAAP gross margin: ~11.9%; operating margin: ~7.9%—still under pressure 🏭 3/8 – KEY FINANCIAL EVENTS • $700M in 2.25% convertible senior notes → fueling AI server growth • Filing delays (10-K, 10-Qs) → must meet Feb 25, 2025 to avoid Nasdaq delisting • New auditor BDO checks the books—no fraud found, but concerns linger about governance 🧐 4/8 – GOVERNANCE & INVESTIGATIONS • Ongoing SEC & DOJ probes after Hindenburg’s short-seller report • CEO says they’ll meet filing deadline, but trust is still shaky • Market watchers: “No fraud found” is good, but the uncertainty stings 🤔 5/8 – SECTOR CONTEXT • Competes with Dell ( NYSE:DELL ), HPE ( NYSE:HPE )—both see AI demand, but SMCI more focused • SMCI trades at ~11x 2025 earnings (vs. Dell at 15x, HPE at 12x) • Could be undervalued—but only if governance issues don’t overshadow the AI growth story 🚀 6/8 – RISKS • Margin Pressure: R&D + product mix + potential GPU shipment delays (Nvidia Blackwell) • Debt Load: Total debt now ~$1.9B, plus $700M in convertible notes • Regulatory Overhang: Missing that Feb 25 deadline = serious delisting risk ⚠️ 7/8 Is SMCI worth the gamble? 1️⃣ Bullish—AI potential outweighs the risks 2️⃣ Neutral—Need clarity on filings & margins 3️⃣ Bearish—Governance red flags trump growth Vote below! 🗳️👇 8/8 – STRATEGIC OUTLOOK • 70%+ revenue from AI platforms → big edge if servers remain hot • Partnerships w/ Nvidia & push into liquid-cooled data centers • Delaying or messing up compliance could sabotage all that potential 🌐
NLong
by DCAChampion
1
2/10/25 - $smci - lol2/10/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:SMCI lol - you all know what happens when reputation goes to a diddy party and takes an azz chapz photo with "lady" "gaga". - nobody is going to scale with these guys, guys - it's hard enough to buy dell, hp... even the *covers left eye* oracle is an overvalued POS that tells a nice story - bitcoin, nxt, uber, tsm... nvda... come on guys. it's hard enough to own legit stuff in this overbaked cake. don't make your life harder than it already is. welp. i'm sure i'll have the only honest but "bearish" post that tells the truth. - truth sucks. but it's the scarcest asset. aren't we all in the business of consuming scarce assets? anyway... have a wonderful week my friends. bit of a digression post than usual. V
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by VROCKSTAR
2
SMCI Bull Flag completed and targeting $65.Three months ago (November 07 2024, see chart below), we issued a strong buy signal on Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI), after the stock had declined by more than -85% from its All Time High (ATH): The signal was an instant success, as the price rebounded on the following week. Our perspective hasn't changed and today, with the stock up currently by more +13% intra day, is another reason why. Last week the price made an excellent rebound on its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), solidifying this level as the new Support and turning out to be a huge demand level that completed the Bull Flag pattern of December 09 2024 - January 27 2025. As you can see , the 1W MA200 was also on the symmetrical Support Zone that only broke on the 'fake-out' of November's accounting scandal peak. The interesting take on this 1W chart is that every similar Bull Flag since the 2020 COVID crash, tested the 1.5 Fibonacci extension before the next technical pull-back. As a result, we expect a $65.00 test, which would exceed the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), before a new 2-month correction. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NLong
by TradingShot
3
SMCI - Super Micro Computer, Inc.Super Micro Computer, Inc. engages in the distribution and manufacture of information technology solutions and other computer products. Its products include twin solutions, MP servers, GPU and coprocessor, MicroCloud, AMD solutions, power supplies, SuperServer, storage, motherboards, chassis, super workstations, accessories, SuperRack and server management products. The company was founded by Charles Liang, Yih-Shyan Liaw, Sara Liu, and Chiu-Chu Liu Liang in September 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, CA.
NLong
by Esmail_from_Kuwait
Bullish Bat?If we are seeing a bullish bat here than SMCI's ability to return to its original price of around $100 depends on several key factors: 1. Market Sentiment & AI Growth Supermicro has become a critical supplier for AI-driven data centers, leveraging NVIDIA's GPUs. If AI and high-performance computing demand continues to grow, SMCI's revenue and stock price could remain strong. 2. Addressing Accounting Concerns Past SEC settlements and ongoing Hindenburg Research allegations could create volatility. If Supermicro proves its financial integrity and remains compliant with regulations, investor confidence could return. 3. Competition & Supply Chain Risks The company faces competition from Dell, HPE, and Lenovo, which could impact market share. Geopolitical risks with China (since Supermicro's manufacturing is partially based there) could also play a role. 4. Valuation & Market Cycles Supermicro traded at $100 before its massive AI-driven rally in 2023-2024. If AI spending slows, or the market perceives SMCI as overvalued, it could experience a correction. Technical & Historical Perspective SMCI was under $100 before 2023, but its AI-driven business significantly expanded. A return to $100 would imply a massive decline of over 85%, which would require a major financial or industry-wide collapse. Realistic Possibility? Unlikely in the near term unless there is a major accounting scandal, a sharp downturn in AI-related spending, or a market-wide tech crash. More realistic downside? If AI demand slows, SMCI could correct to around $300–$400 rather than $100. If you’re considering shorting or trading it, timing will be critical.
NLong
by Bit_Boss
1
A Bet on Green Chip and Data Center InfrastructureSupporting Arguments Fundamental Undervaluation Due to Past Issues: SMCI experienced a significant sell-off following unproven allegations of financial reporting fraud. Currently, the company trades at a discount compared to peers that only partially focus on data center infrastructure solutions. Financial Results Release for FY 2024: The market is pricing in a potential NASDAQ delisting due to delays in financial reporting. The current deadline for the company is February 25, which is likely to be a decisive moment for this investment thesis. Investment Thesis Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI), founded in Silicon Valley, has been a niche supplier of server solutions for data centers for over 15 years. The company has significantly disrupted the server and storage systems market, achieving growth rates surpassing its competitors. SMCI offers a comprehensive 360° solution, covering hardware, support, software, and security. An independent audit found no evidence of fraud or misconduct by the company’s management, yet the stock trades at highly attractive valuation multiples while maintaining strong growth potential. Fundamental Undervaluation Due to Past Issues. Currently, SMCI trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10, while its closest competitors (Dell, Lenovo, HP), which offer only partial infrastructure solutions, trade at an average multiple of 11.6. The emergence of more efficient AI infrastructure solutions in China (such as DeepSeek) is putting pressure on the industry. However, Jevons' paradox suggests that increased efficiency may drive demand for AI development among companies that previously avoided entering the market due to high barriers to entry. Even if demand for data center infrastructure weakens, it remains positive due to the exponential growth of global data consumption. FY 2024 Financial Results Release. The company must publish its financial reports by February 25. Currently, the market fears a potential delisting, but we believe this risk is low. It is important to note that SMCI recently underwent changes in its finance department, which naturally affected the reporting timeline. It is likely that the company’s management has reviewed and adjusted its financial disclosure processes. Given that SEC reviews have been positive and there have been no major delays in the past, it is difficult to imagine that the company will fail to report on time. The next month will be crucial for the stock, and we see a high probability of a valuation reassessment by investors. Our target price for SMCI stock is $40, with a "Buy" recommendation. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $22.5.
NLong
by FreedomHolding
$SMCI very bullish if good earningsSo these clowns are finally going to talk about their business next week. Hopefully they fixed all their accounting issues. They said there will be no change to past reports. As far as running a company, I believe they are doing some shady things but with a PE under 15 and the company supposedly is doing twice the numbers they were last time we were at these levels plus the Blackwell is finally out and they can forecast huge growth there is a lot to be bullish about. 17% of the float is short. It still could be high risk but just like how people are still bullish GME years after it's run I think there are a lot of people watching this one as well. The short squeeze and gamma squeeze has huge potential. There was a record number of institutional investors piling into this name as well. If I'm wrong I'm screwed because I have lots of shares and June calls all in the money at the moment. I don't see breaking all time highs any time soon but doubling money on June calls can happen fast. If earnings are good and the outlook is good, I'm happy to double down. Just my opinion not investment advice, it's still high risk! Earnings has about a 13% expected move.
N
by Jarret
SMCI: Inverse Head and Shoulders close to bullish breakout.Super Micro Computer Inc turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook today (RSI = 51.775, MACD = -1.260, ADX = 17.645) as it crossed over the 4H MA50. The 4H MA200 remains the long lasting resistance ever since the July selling commenced but the recent 2 month Channel Down looks like the right shoulder of an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. If it is that indeed, we should see a break above the 4H MA200 as soon as next week even. If successful, we will go long as the buying sentiment would have returned to SMCI on the long term. Aim for the usual target of such Inverse Head and Shoulders, the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 130.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NLong
by InvestingScope
1
Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: $SMCI) Faces Critical SupportMarket Movement: Super Micro Computer, Inc. ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) is experiencing a notable dip, down 2.27% in Monday’s premarket trading. Investors are closely watching the stock as it approaches a critical structural support level within its long-standing symmetrical triangle pattern, a formation that has persisted since March 2024. Technical Analysis The symmetrical triangle pattern, marked by converging trendlines, signifies a prolonged phase of consolidation. A significant technical structure has formed, with the baseline aligned with the December 2023 pivot. If NASDAQ:SMCI breaches this support level, the downside potential is substantial, possibly leading to a retracement toward the $17 support level. However, should the stock witness a breakout above the Break of Structure (BOS), it could catalyze a strong rally, aiming for the highs seen in March 2024. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) currently sits at 40, indicating that the stock is teetering on the edge of bearish sentiment but not yet in oversold territory. The RSI’s ability to maintain this level could determine whether a bounce from support materializes or if further downside pressure ensues. The next few sessions will be pivotal in shaping NASDAQ:SMCI ’s short-term price trajectory. Recent Earnings Overview Despite the recent price dip, NASDAQ:SMCI has demonstrated impressive financial performance. The company reported a staggering 109.77% YoY revenue growth, reaching $14.94 billion in 2024, compared to $7.12 billion in the previous year. Earnings also surged by 88.77%, totaling $1.21 billion. These figures reflect strong operational efficiency and growing demand for its high-performance server and storage solutions. Analyst Forecast & Price Target: According to 16 analysts, NASDAQ:SMCI holds an average rating of “Hold.” The 12-month price forecast suggests a target of $57.74, implying a potential upside of 102.45% from its latest price. While analysts remain cautiously optimistic, the stock’s future hinges on whether it respects its current support levels or experiences a significant breakdown. Conclusion: NASDAQ:SMCI is at a technical crossroads, where a break below the symmetrical triangle’s baseline could signal further downside pressure, while a successful breakout above resistance could reignite bullish momentum. With strong fundamental backing and an impressive growth trajectory, the coming days will be crucial in determining whether the stock can reclaim its bullish potential or succumb to market pressures. Traders and investors alike should keep a close eye on the Break of Structure (BOS), as it will likely dictate NASDAQ:SMCI ’s next major move in the market.
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by DEXWireNews
SMCI - high potential comes with high riskThere are many complex charts of SMCI on here, I like to keep it simple. This stock has the potential for gains of 100 - 200 %, but only if there are good news in the next few weeks. As long as there is uncertainty about their accounting and Nasdaq listing, this is a gamble and it could go to 0. Also considering that the indices are at an ATH and struggeling, I am just observing for now. From a TA perspective price is still in a falling channel, has gone up in 5 waves and corrected. Therefore a wave 1 and 2 could be in place and next could be a wave 3 to 80$+. Price is also trading within the lower Fib extensions. Patience is key here. Better miss some gains than loose it all.
N
by flightleader78
1
SMCI - the gamble stock you should NOT touch!Since SMCI had issues with the liability of their financial statements the stock lost a lot but is now holding in a critical price range. Large investors are still not ready to buy the stock because the management is not convincing falsifying the accusations of financial fraud. Thats why this stock is extreme dangerous because there is no much backup which can help the stock gaining at this moment and any news could lead to another -10% for a day. There is no indicator making this to a serious taken stock and not a casino stock. The risk of this stock being dumped is very high.
NShort
by bullishnr1
10