SPY Technical Analysis for Jan. 2, 20251-Hour Chart Trading Analysis:
Current Observations:
* Trend: SPY is trading within a descending wedge pattern, suggesting a potential breakout soon.
* Volume: Slight increase on the recent candles, indicating growing interest.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Starting to show signs of bullish divergence, with the histogram nearing the zero line.
* Stochastic RSI: Moving upward from oversold territory, which is a positive signal for potential buying.
Trading Strategy:
* Bullish Scenario:
* Entry: Wait for a breakout above $588.60 with strong bullish momentum and increased volume.
* Stop Loss: Set below $577.24, the recent swing low.
* Target: First target at $595, with an extended target of $600.
* Bearish Scenario:
* Entry: If the price breaks below $577 with strong volume, enter a short position.
* Stop Loss: Place above $588.
* Target: First target at $570, with an extended target of $560.
Daily Chart GEX Analysis:
Key Levels from GEX:
* HVL: $584.41 acts as a strong Gamma Wall, suggesting a potential reversal area.
* Call Resistance: Significant resistance at $595 and $600 levels.
* Put Support: Strong support at $577 and $560.
Options Strategy:
* Bullish Play:
* Call Option: Buy calls with a strike at $590, expiring in 2 weeks, targeting $600.
* Suggested Position Size: Moderate, as IV is relatively low.
* Bearish Play:
* Put Option: Buy puts with a strike at $575, targeting $565.
* Suggested Position Size: Moderate, as IV is stable.
Summary and Recommendations:
* Trading: Monitor for a breakout above or below the wedge. Ensure confirmation via volume and indicators.
* Options: Align with the trading direction, and choose strikes close to GEX levels for maximum leverage.
* Caution: The GEX data suggests strong resistance at $595-$600 and solid support at $577-$560, making those levels critical decision points.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk effectively before making any trades.