SPY trade ideas
End of hibernation for the bears?AMEX:SPY is at a pivotal point and could potentially be at the top of the bullish cycle that began in October 2022. If this prediction proves accurate, I think we could see a maximum low of $510 for this year. There are a couple of caveats, including one that will be a clear indicator of whether or not this wave count is accurate, which I will explain later.
On the 1000R chart ($10), this uptrend was confirmed by Supertrend and volume activity. Volume drastically increased at the start of Wave (3) in March 2023 and did not taper off until the start of Wave (4) in July 2024. This was the strongest impulse in the trend, which is common for Wave 3. You can also see the ADX line of the DMI indicator (white line) was at its highest level during that period.
Assuming Wave (5) is already complete, we can observe that the volume in Wave (3) was considerably less than Wave (5).
Other observations supporting this wave count:
- Wave (4) retracing into the territory of Wave 4 of (3)
- Alternation in corrective patterns between Wave (2) and Wave (4); flat in (2) and straight down in (4)
- Wave (5) extending to nearly 1.618 of (1)
While the points I’ve made so far suggest that the market may be on the verge of a crash, the image gets more complicated when you take a closer look on the 250R chart ($2.50). I’ll start with what I’m counting as Wave 4 of (5). The price ended at ATH in Wave 3 and then corrected in an unmistakable five wave descending wedge pattern. This can only be a fourth wave of a larger impulse, so we can conclude with a fair amount of confidence that the wave that follows will be the last.
Here is where things get interesting. The price moved from $575 on January 13th to a slightly higher ATH of $609.24 on January 24th before being rejected again. This uptrend unfolded in a typical bullish pattern and left a notable gap at $584, which is the only gap still left unfilled. The trend change is confirmed on the moving averages. Notice the serious drop in volume that followed as well.
Despite the shift in volume, there are two issues I have with this wave count that are preventing me from calling this a confirmed correction:
1. Wave 5 of (5) was awfully short and only extended roughly $2 above the end of Wave 3 of (5). This does not break any rules, but it is unusual.
2. What I have labelled as Wave B of Wave (1) or (A) of the correction made a new ATH on Friday February 14th, which should invalidate this wave count since the end of Wave 5 of (5) should be the peak.
The second point is why some may think that we are about to resume the larger bull trend, however there is a possibility that they are mistaken based off the PA on the actual index SP:SPX and futures CME_MINI:ES1! . On the SP:SPX chart, we can see that the index did not break the ATH at $6128.18 set on January 25th, and instead rejected at $6,127.24.
CME_MINI:ES1! also failed to notch a new ATH on Friday and I have observed the price action create a nearly perfect bearish butterfly pattern. Also notice how the volume is significantly lower than in the uptrend that began on January 31st.
So the question remains: are we at a tipping point or will the bulls regain control? Right now it’s unclear, but I will keep my bearish sentiment until SP:SPX makes a new ATH, which will invalidate this theory. Since only the ETF that tracks it only made a slightly higher high on low volume, I’m skeptical of the PA on AMEX:SPY at the moment. This is why I entered puts on Friday.
If the trade plays out, I expect the price to quickly move to fill the gap at $584, which is still conveniently located at what I cam considering the 1.236 extension of Wave A, which is a common target extension in flat corrections. I will keep my puts open until this idea is invalidated, as the Wave C drop will likely be caused by a news event that could come at any time. Let me know if you guys are seeing the same thing or something different. Good luck to all!
SPY Possible next movesOrange Line - Trendline since November 2024
Blue Line - Trendline from 2020
SMA - Red (200) as a moving floor
SMA - Yellow (100) as a moving floor
1st Strong Floor - Resistance range 562 - 555
2nd Strong Floor - Resistance range 518 - 511
Downtrend Channel between blue lines
If the downtrend channel is broken with strength and volume, we could experience a retracement to the 584 - 595 range and then wait. However, if it is not broken and the strong downtrend continues, breaking the first floor range (wait for candlestick confirmation with bearish volume) and/or experiencing a false breakout (breakout without volume to the upside), we could expect a drop to the second floor range. It is important to wait for confirmations and execute the corresponding trades accordingly.
-------------
$SPY Short Term Bullish atm.. idea for BullsWell... seeing is we hit my target, I thought I might bless the Bulls with a little bit of Eye Candy.... This is what you want...
The Fib breakdown of the Golden Pocket above at the 1.61... we hit the retracement... and now back to the .78
We hold here and it can get bullish quick.
Bearish Path in Next post... otherwise we make a lower high and fall to $525 and fast.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 11, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇯🇵🤝 Japan-U.S. Trade Discussions 🤝: Japanese Trade Minister Yoji Muto is visiting Washington from March 9–11 to engage in discussions with U.S. officials. The talks aim to strengthen economic ties and address trade concerns, including potential exemptions for Japanese exports from proposed U.S. tariffs. These negotiations could influence sectors such as automotive and steel, impacting market dynamics.
🇨🇳📊 China's National People's Congress (NPC) Developments 📊: The 2025 National People's Congress is underway in Beijing from March 5–11. Key economic targets and policy directions set during the NPC may affect global markets, including the U.S., especially in areas related to trade, technology, and foreign investment.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Tuesday, March 11:
📄 JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM ET) 📄:This report provides data on job openings, hires, and separations, offering a comprehensive view of the labor market's dynamics.
Forecast: 7.71 million
Previous: 7.6 million
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 031025Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 549/61.80%
Chart time frame: D
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: C
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
$SPY: Possible Bullish Reversal [LONG]Sentiment indicators and volume patterns all point to a local bottom forming on the 4H chart. These signals, along with supporting technical indicators, strongly suggest that $555 marks a local bottom and a reversal from the current lows can be expected.
Watch closely for confirmation as SPY potentially starts moving higher from here.
$SPY - We could see a bounce within this weekSince the uptrend began in November 2023, the AMEX:SPY has experienced a drawdown of approximately 9-10%, with 11% being the maximum drawdown.
Similarly, drawdowns have typically overshot below the 200-day moving average (200DMA) by an average of 3%.
By this measure, the worst-case scenario for this drawdown could see AMEX:SPY fall to the $544 to $542 range.
I think we could see a bounce within this week.👀
SP:SPX
SPY Long Term puts If we look at the 1 month Spy is coming at 216 for long term puts
Disclaimer- This what i think it will go
Idea For Long Term puts on Spy What i see on the day time there a long term puts on Spy on Level 528.95 And level 546.11
Idea for long term puts.
Level 528.95 And level 546.11
Disclaimer- This what i think it will go
Market Crash? No: Sector Rotation!The news is catching up (two weeks late) to the stock market heading into bear territory but that is NOT the whole picture! Investors need to know that there are winners out there in quality stocks as the risky YOLO plays (tech, crypto) are losing. This specific rotation perfectly fits the model of the stock market rolling over into bearish territory.
Follow the money!
SPY - Liking the 560 areaThe fibs lined up just under 560 for a few time frames so I'm entering at this point.
Many expected a Primary Wave 4 to occur before a fifth wave higher. Can't be sure how long this will last but surprised that people might be spooked by recession talk. Seems that we have been in a recession for quite a while, although it hadn't been reflected in the stock market numbers. Certainly, jobs data for the previous year seemed unbelievable and manufacturing has been in a recession for quite a while.
Spy $544? I believe liquidity will be taken and a lot of people are going to get recked in this move i think its going to be violent and semi fast I give this 20-35 Trading days to Play out... I see as low as $544 then up up and away she goes heading to $620... Keep in mind we dont have to hit $544 , $550ish could be the bottom before heading higher , In the meantime trade safe be safe and see you there
SPY FORECAST " CORRECTION IN PLAY "Right now, SPY is entering a corrective phase after completing a strong five-wave impulse sequence. Based on Elliott Wave Theory, we are now in an A-B-C correction, and here’s what I expect according to my analysis.
WAVE STRUCTURE EXPECTATION
- Wave A is in motion and is expected to hit support at $511 by March 18, 2025.
- Wave B will likely bring a relief rally toward $535 by March 24, 2025, before sellers take control again.
- Wave C is projected to finalize the correction at $487 by April 1, 2025, aligning perfectly with Fibonacci retracement levels.
HOW GANN CONFIRMS THIS MOVE
Gann Squares & Angles provide additional time and price validation:
- The breakdown below $562 confirms that SPY has lost key trend support.
- Gann's 1x1 and 2x1 angles are pointing to the same price zones where Elliott Wave suggests support.
- This means we are in a structured, time-based correction rather than a random sell-off.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR TRADERS
- Short-term bearish bias until Wave C completes.
- If the price holds $511 (Wave A target), expect a bounce toward $535 (Wave B).
- A break below $511 signals more downside, with Wave C targeting $487 as the final correction zone.
FINAL THOUGHTS
market is moving exactly as expected, and this forecast is based on historically reliable market cycles. Whether you trade stocks or options, knowing where the market is headed helps you position yourself smarter.
SPY target 563I do dowsing with a pendulum on stocks and indexes, and am trying to use my intuition more, but I have a hard time sitting still. I did "tune in" for a minute to ask about SPY this morning & got the mental visual of a kind of peak and strong reversal down, and then the number 63 kept flashing at me.
After a few minutes, I realized that 562-63 is my dowsing target from after we hit the high at $613 (which I posted as a target & hit to the dollar).
So, this is to say, this work can be legit & way more than coincidence or luck.
When I had asked about when the 562 area would hit (on 2/23), my answer was 11 days. That date comes in on Thursday.
If price and time can align, results may be sublime. I seriously had to do that, but it is true & ideal if they coalesce. I do have some dates coming for Wednesday as well, so it could be off. But I have strong conviction 562-63 hits & then some kind of bounce, which I will update.
SPY - support & resistant areas for today March 10, 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above.
Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning.
Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions.
Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change.
If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91. Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 10 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-10-25: Gap/BreakawayToday's Gap Breakaway pattern suggests the markets will attempt to gap at the open, then move into a breakaway trending phase.
Given the downward price trend currently in place, I believe the markets will gap downward, then possibly attempt to move higher as we pause above the 568 (pre-election) support level.
Ultimately, I see the markets entering a brief pause/sideways price trend (maybe 2 to 5 days) before rolling downward again into the April 14 and May 2 base/bottom patterns.
I see very little support in the markets right now - other than a potential BOUNCE setup this week and into early next week.
I'm not suggesting this bounce will be a very big bullish price reversion. My upper levels are still in the 590 to 600 area for the SPY. But I do believe the markets are likely to try to find support near the 565-575 level.
Gold and silver will move into a Harami Pattern today (sideways consolidation). I don't expect much related to a big move in metals today.
Bitcoin is still consolidating in a very wide range. I expect the next move for Bitcoin to be a bit higher over the next 3-5+ days, so I believe the SPY/QQQ may trend a bit higher for about 3-5 days.
Overall, I suggest traders stay very cautious of volatility this week. Obviously, the trend is still bearish and the current EPP phase setups suggests we are consolidating into a sideways channel before moving downward seeking the Ultimate Low patterns.
Therefore, any bounce/pause in price will be very short-lived.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY at a Critical Level! Will the Reversal Zone Hold?Market Structure Overview:
* SPY is currently testing a Reversal Zone, trading within a descending wedge pattern.
* Support: 570-572 zone aligned with the lower trendline.
* Resistance: 578.28, followed by 595 if bullish momentum sustains.
Supply & Demand Zones:
* Demand Zone: 565-570 is showing some buyer interest.
* Reversal Zone: Price action is rejecting from the trendline, indicating a potential short-term bounce.
Order Blocks & Key Levels:
* 572.54 – 574.71 acting as a consolidation zone before a decisive move.
* If the price clears 578-580, momentum could push toward 595.
Indicator Analysis:
* MACD: Flat momentum but attempting a bullish crossover.
* Stochastic RSI: Bouncing from the lower region, indicating a possible reversal attempt.
Options Flow & GEX Analysis:
* Put Wall at 565 & 560: High negative gamma suggests strong put positioning.
* Call Resistance at 610-620: Major resistance where calls start building pressure.
* GEX Indicator: PUTs are at 110.1%—indicating downside hedging is still strong.
Scenarios to Watch:
1. Bullish Scenario: If SPY holds above 572-574, we could see a push toward 578 and then 595.
2. Bearish Scenario: A breakdown below 570 may trigger a flush toward 565, where the next strong put wall is positioned.
Actionable Trade Setup:
* Bullish Entry: Above 574.90 → Target: 578 / 595.
* Bearish Entry: Below 572.50 → Target: 570 / 565.
* Stop-Loss: ±2 points from entry.
Conclusion:
SPY is at a key decision point within a reversal zone, and price action near 574-578 will dictate the next leg. If bullish volume increases, we could see a run toward 595, but failure to hold 572 might result in further downside.
🛑 This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trade responsibly. 🚀
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 10–14, 2025 🔮🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇨🇳📉 China's Retaliatory Tariffs 📉: In response to U.S. tariffs, China has imposed up to 15% tariffs on U.S. products, including cotton, chicken, corn, and soybeans. This escalation raises concerns about a potential global trade war, which could negatively impact U.S. exporters and broader market sentiment.
🇪🇺💶 European Fiscal Expansion 💶: Germany has announced significant increases in defense and infrastructure spending, marking a shift in fiscal policy. This move may stimulate European economic growth, potentially affecting U.S. markets through interconnected global trade and investment channels.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Wednesday, March 12:
📈 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET) 📈:The CPI measures the average change over time in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services, serving as a key indicator of inflation.
Forecast: +0.2% month-over-month
Previous: +0.3% month-over-month
📅 Thursday, March 13:
🏭 Producer Price Index (PPI) (8:30 AM ET) 🏭:The PPI reflects the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers, offering insights into wholesale inflation trends.
Forecast: +0.1% month-over-month
Previous: +0.2% month-over-month
📅 Friday, March 14:
🛒 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (10:00 AM ET) 🛒:This index measures consumer confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions, and purchasing power, providing insights into consumer sentiment.
Forecast: 95.0
Previous: 96.4
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
STOCK MARKET CRASH HAS STARTED ON $SPY (March 9, 2025)Just another video on AMEX:SPY looking at what's next for this potential bear market
SPY/S&P500: in the mid-term resistance zonePrice has approached the upper border of the mid-term resistance zone: 598-612.
Until price closes bellow 612, I am preparing for the start of a correction to mid-term support: 564-540.
If price moves confidently above 612, than next resistance target is at 635 level.
The macro-structure of the uptrend from 2022 lows is well intact until price holds above 540 level and assumes higher targets for 2025 at 635-640-670 levels.
I wish everyone Merry Christmas and successful and profitable 2025!
Thank you for your attention.
Dead cat bounceLooking for continuation of this relief bounce this week before turning back down for a new low and bottom on/around Mar 21 OpEx
SPY Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the SPY next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 575.87
Bias - Bullish
Safe Stop Loss - 569.47
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 588.44
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
