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SPY trade ideas

SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-9 : Top/Resistance PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move a bit higher in early trading - trying to identify a resistance area. Then, roll over into a downward price trend. Be cautious of the overnight price range, potentially already setting the upper boundary of the TOP pattern for today. It can happen that overnight trading sets a PEAK/TOP, and we move into sideways/downward trading related to the current TOP/Resistance pattern. I believe the US markets will attempt to move upward, toward the $490-500+ level before topping out today. I believe this move will be related to the strong support near the $480 level and will attempt to further establish the downward price channel established by the big breakdown in trend over the past 9+ days. Ultimately, I believe price is struggling for direction, but I also believe this process (with tariffs) is working out as expected. This is obviously a very volatile market - so stay cautious as we move into a more consolidated price trend over the next few weeks. I don't expect the markets to try to make any really big moves over the next 2+ week (unless news hits). At this point, I believe the markets will try to UNWIND the volatility over the next 2+ weeks. BTCUSD is trading near the lower range of the consolidation phase. This could be the start of the breakdown to the Ultimate Low. GOLD and Silver are moving higher after forming the base (just as I expected). Metals will likely rally strongly as global fear elevates. Thank you for all the great comments. I'll try to publish a few new videos today and tomorrow to help everyone out. Remember, price gives us new information every minute/bar. It is a matter of unraveling the puzzle with price - one bar at a time. If you like what I do, follow along. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
4
Spy Road To $544 Target HIT Now WhatWell we finally hit our target a lot of us went heavy in shorts right before the bell rang in many Etf's SPY QQQ Tsla with massive amounts of money With Expirations Expiring 4/3 4/5 and also 2weeks out.... Don't Ever Miss Another Move in the stock market again stay up to date With JoeWtrades.... So I guess everyone wants to know what's next Bear Market Bull Market is the the bottom in ext.... Nope this is not the bottom, i already have a plan on what's going to happen price will continue to fall Friday Over the Weekend Resulting in a possible Dead Cat Bounce come Tuesday in my opinion back to $550ish, Wait what did you say yes $dead cat bounce to $550ish in the next few days possibly Tuesday so this means this is not the bottom JoeWtrades , Nope in my opinion its not Like and follow to see in my opinion on where price goes, if you need assistance and would like to take your trading and scalping to the next level You know what to do.... As Always safe trades and good luck
AMEX:SPYShort
by JoeWtrades
2
SPY: End of March/Start of April Hey everyone, Going to keep this short because I feel like, between projections and levels, I have a good idea of what is going to happen next week. The chain of events seem to be gap down/ or sell towards 550 / 549, then up to 557 (which is also our reference target, that yellow line in the chart) where we see rejection to sub 550. I am a little shook that this is moving super quick, but the last correction in a Trump era was fairly swift, tumbling over 20% in the span of maybe 3 months if I remember correctly (2018). But it was a complex market because there was an initial collapse, then a choppy grind up to highs, then an even deeper sell. I am hoping that this does not repeat because that would be annoying. Here is the forecast: The red line is the best fit projection. Looking at the forecast overlaid with the levels for next week it does really align well with the move to 557. If we are to break over 557, then I would be looking for a cap at 559. The best fit low is 546, which means dropping below previous support. The ultimate target as of right now is a move back to the quadratic mean in the 490s. Though we could find support on the upper confidence level. If we are doing a very fundamental correction, 472 is SPY's mean based on the US money supply: As of right now the target to really just care about is 546. And as a side note, there was a ton of volume uptick in that 555 range. We only hit it on Friday, but over the last 5 days, 555 comprised the HIGHEST volume, all selling, to the point of being SPY's 5 day POC. That is pretty intense for a new low on the week achieved Friday a few hours before market closed for the weekend to comprise the most volume and it being 95% in one direction. This stark EOW volume generally would lead to gap in the direction of the volume, which was bearish, so hence I do expect a bit of a gap down. Anyway, those are my thoughts, keeping the idea fairly simple this week because I'm tired haha. Safe trades, enjoy your weekend! P.s. Thank you as always to Tradingview for allowing people to do plots with pinescript on public ideas! 🙏🙏🙏
AMEX:SPYShort
by Steversteves
52
SP500 - Shiller PE RatioSPY Looking back we can see where the Shiller PE ratio values provided an insight into buying into the SP500 We have altered courses from the High Interest rates of 1988 - the lows of 2020 I believe we are in a new Inflation cycle. This could result in rising rates over next 20 years. It makes for a harder decision for buying the market. If they are not going to truly rally @ 31.31 then will they at 27.08 or lower? Will the market beat inflation?
AMEX:SPYShort
by superiorJaguar24882
4
SPY Analysis & Tariff TurmoilLast Friday, the market pressure was intense, and my bullish call option, targeting $537.64 on SPY, seemed overly ambitious as tariffs and political uncertainties peaked. I stated, " AMEX:SPY Trump went all in thinking he had the cards. We were getting sent back to the McKinley era," wondering when or if Trump would fold under international pressure and market realities. Fast-forward to Wednesday, April 8—Trump didn't just blink; he folded utterly, reversing the harsh tariff policies he initially defended aggressively. Prompted by China's aggressively dumping of U.S. Treasuries and stark recession warnings from Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and JPMorgan, Trump pivoted significantly: • Base tariffs: 10% • Tariffs on China: Increased to 125% • Tariffs on U.S. goods entering China: Increased to 84% starting April 10 While temporarily bullish, these sudden, dramatic policy swings underline ongoing instability and volatility. However, with big bank earnings on deck this Friday, short-term momentum looks positive. Technical Levels & Trade Ideas Hourly Chart The hourly chart reveals a critical zone—dubbed "Liberation Day Trapped Longs"—between $544.37 (H. Vol Sell Target 1b) and $560.54 (L. Vol ST 2b). Bulls trapped here from recent highs may now look to exit on a relief rally. • Bullish Scenario: • Entry: SPY reclaiming and holding above $544.37. • Target 1: $560.54 (top of trapped longs) • Target 2: $566.54 (next resistance area) • Stop Loss: Below recent lows near $535 to limit downside. • Bearish Scenario (if tariffs intensify again or earnings disappoint): • Entry: Breakdown confirmation below $535. • Target 1: $522.20 (Weeks Low Long) • Target 2: $510.00, potential further support • Stop Loss: Above $544.50 to manage risk effectively. Daily Chart Perspective The broader daily chart shows SPY stabilizing around key lower supports after significant volatility. Recent price action suggests cautious optimism for an upward bounce, but considerable headwinds remain if tariff escalations resume. Final Thoughts The rapid tariff reversals and heightened volatility are unsettling. The short-term bullish move offers potential quick upside trades into earnings, but caution remains paramount. You can continue managing risks prudently and watch closely for political or economic headlines that could quickly shift market sentiment again.
AMEX:SPY
by HispanicHedge
4
04/07 GEX + Historic VIX Highs: Extreme Volatility with OptionsWow, where to begin? We’ve just come through a week that even the most thorough analysts found surprising. Last Friday’s brutal sell-off triggered such a massive margin call rally that even the hedge funds were forced to exit gold—which is usually considered a safe haven—on Friday. The VIX is at a historic high — no joke. We last saw levels like this during the 2008 crisis and the COVID panic in 2020. 📌 High IV = High Theta When implied volatility (IV) is high, theta (the time decay of options) is also high. This means that maintaining long put protection becomes extremely expensive. From a broker’s hedging perspective, if they are short expensive put options, they can gradually buy back their futures positions over time (all else being equal). As IV rises, this buyback becomes increasingly attractive for them. Let’s look at our weekly SPY analysis using GEX Profile (Gamma Exposure) indicator first: It’s definitely not a cheerful chart! * Below 520: We have strikes dominated by puts. The largest negative GEX “profit-taking zone” sits at 490. If price reaches that level and the support fails (the previous major bottom from April 2024), we could move even further down into a very wide negative squeeze zone, possibly as far as 445. * HVL zone: 520–546: A choppy area around the gamma flip. * Above 546: This would signal a +10-15% rally, putting us in a positive gamma zone. However, such a scenario currently seems unlikely—at least based on the gamma levels we see right now. I won’t sugarcoat it: we’re at levels now where the market could easily move 10% in either direction. So, in my view, forget about conservative option strategies with flat delta exposure. 🤔 What Can We Do? Important: This analysis reflects my personal opinion only. It’s primarily for those looking to speculate in this highly uncertain environment. If you’re holding put options strictly as a hedge, then this may not be directly relevant to you. In these conditions, the number one rule is to survive—hedges are meant to protect assets or guard against margin calls, not to make profit. Currently, IV (implied volatility) and VIX are at historic highs. For them to stay this elevated, we’d need new negative headlines and further major market drops. While that could certainly happen, statistically it becomes less and less likely as time goes on. Buying Put Options …. no way? First off, there are plenty of challenges if you plan to buy put options right now—most of all their cost. Put options are nearly twice as expensive as calls in many cases. Does this mean I recommend selling puts or put spreads? I’m not saying you shouldn’t, but be aware: this isn’t for the faint-hearted or for beginners (the risk is high!). It might be worth exploring butterfly or vertical debit spread strategies, as our goal remains the same as always: to maximize the risk–reward ratio. 🐂 If You’re Bullish This might sound like a ninja move, but one possibility is to buy call butterfly spreads. Yes, the market could still drop—that’s absolutely possible. But statistically, it’s becoming less likely that we’ll see another huge leg down without some form of rebound. - Slight Move Up: In the event of a mild rise, call spreads and call butterfly strategies can significantly outperform a simple long call. The short legs in a spread/fly offset high theta costs and mitigate the negative effects of falling IV. - Even with a +10% Move: A long call is often still not the best choice in this environment—even if the option goes deep in the money. Where Call Spread/Butterfly Can Fail If stocks rally 15–20% or more and IV also increases (which would be unprecedented in just a few days). If the market crashes and VIX spikes above 100 (IV would skyrocket, raising the cost of all options further). Cheap Bullish Calendar Spread In a situation like this, even a cheap calendar spread can be a good play — the risk is relatively low, especially if managed well and the breakeven range is wide. Of course, if implied volatility drops, the spread could narrow, but that would likely come with a market rally, which theta can help capitalize on. 🐻 If You’re Bearish I strongly advise against buying single-leg puts, even on a 0DTE (zero-days-to-expiration) basis. If you’re convinced the market will keep dropping, I’d only consider debit spreads, aiming for a solid risk–reward ratio (in my case, I look for at least 1:2 risk-to-reward). ⚖️ If You Want to Stay Neutral / Omni bullish If you prefer not to pick a direction, you could try to capitalize on historically high IV with a May-expiration Iron Condor. This is the classic TastyTrade approach, with the caveat that you must monitor GEX levels and IV daily and adjust the far side as needed. Risk Management: If the spot price threatens one of your short strikes, you probably shouldn’t wait around in this volatile environment. It’s usually better to close the position and take a small loss than to hope for a reversal—hoping can become very expensive! Conclusion The market is extremely volatile, and expensive options mean traditional strategies may not work as well as they usually do. Stay cautious, manage risk meticulously, and don’t be afraid to close out losing trades quickly. As always, surviving to trade another day is the most important rule.
AMEX:SPY
by TanukiTrade
4
spy had a meaningful run today with strong institutional activiySPY Pre-Market Breakdown – April 9, 2025 Phase 1: 4:00 AM – 5:30 AM – Early Accumulation The pre-market session began with SPY trading around the 490 level, showing cautious price action in a consolidation pattern. During these early hours, price maintained a relatively tight range between 489 and 491, with minimal directional commitment. Volume remained light during this period, typical of early pre-market hours, but began building steadily as we approached 5:00 AM. Around 5:00 AM, we observed the first meaningful price movement as SPY began testing higher levels with several green candles pushing toward 494. This early strength coincided with increasing volume, suggesting genuine buying interest rather than just thin market conditions. The price action formed a series of higher lows, establishing a short-term uptrend channel. What's particularly noteworthy in this phase was the balanced options exposure, with call and put exposure roughly similar , indicating no strong directional bias from options traders yet. This balance suggested market participants were still positioning themselves, waiting for clearer signals before committing to a direction. Phase 2: 5:30 AM – 7:00 AM – Positioning Builds The second phase showed increased momentum and clearer directional bias. SPY continued its upward trajectory, breaking through the 494 level and eventually challenging the psychologically important 495 level. Volume began increasing significantly during this period, adding credibility to the price advance. Around 6:00 AM, we noticed the first significant divergence between call and put activity. Call exposure began increasing relative to put exposure, signaling growing bullish sentiment. The chart is indicating aggressive call buying or put unwinding. This shift in options flow provided an early signal that institutional traders were positioning for higher prices. Price consolidation occurred between 495-496 with increased volume, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution at these higher levels. The market was digesting gains but showed no signs of significant profit-taking or reversal. The price action formed a pattern of shallow pullbacks followed by renewed buying interest, a behavior often seen when institutions are accumulating positions. Phase 3: 7:00 AM – 8:45 AM – Execution The final phase demonstrated the culmination of the positioning seen earlier. Around 7:00 AM, price momentum accelerated with SPY pushing decisively through the 496 level and challenging 497. This breakout was accompanied by a significant increase in volume, confirming the validity of the move. Options flow data showed an explosion in call activity during this period, with call exposure reaching over 9 million contracts while put exposure remained relatively stable. Between 7:30 AM and 8:30 AM, we witnessed classic breakout behavior with price establishing itself firmly above previous resistance levels. Any shallow pullbacks were quickly bought, demonstrating strong conviction from buyers. The market is showing some put unwinding alongside continued call buying, suggesting traders were removing downside protection while adding to bullish positions. The Level II quotes showed a notable imbalance developing with buyers willing to pay up and fewer willing sellers. This order book imbalance further confirmed institutional interest in higher prices. Final Bias: Bullish The pre-market session demonstrated a clear bullish bias supported by multiple factors: Price Structure: A series of higher lows and higher highs throughout the session, breaking through multiple resistance levels with conviction. Volume Confirmation: Increasing volume on advances and lighter volume on pullbacks, suggesting genuine buying interest and minimal profit-taking. Options Flow: Progressive increase in call exposure relative to puts, with the final phase showing overwhelming call dominance, indicating institutional positioning for upside. Order Flow: Aggressive buying on breakouts with minimal selling pressure on pullbacks, suggesting strong hands accumulating positions. Late Session Stabilization: Price holding gains near session highs with continued buying interest, rather than fading into the regular market open. Institutions appeared to be positioning for a higher open and potentially continued upside during the regular session. The methodical building of positions throughout the pre-market, rather than a single aggressive spike, suggests this was not merely a reaction to overnight news but rather deliberate positioning ahead of anticipated strength. Trade Setups with Entry, Stop, Target Trade 1: Breakout Continuation (High-Conviction) Entry Zone: 496.50-497.00 on first pullback after market open Stop-Loss: Below 495.75 (below pre-market consolidation) Profit Target: 499.50-500.00 (psychological level and round number) Rationale: Strong pre-market accumulation with increasing call flow suggests continued momentum into regular hours trading. Trade 2: Dip-Buying Opportunity (Medium-Conviction) Entry Zone: 494.80-495.20 if market pulls back to test breakout level Stop-Loss: Below 494.00 (previous resistance becomes support) Profit Target: 498.00-498.50 Rationale: Pre-market volume and options flow indicate institutions positioned for strength, likely to defend key levels on pullbacks.
AMEX:SPY
by john54674
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update Update For 4-2 : ConsolidationThis quick update shows why I believe the SPY/QQQ will struggle to make any big move as long as we stay within the 382-618 "Battle Zone". The SPY continues to rally up into this zone and stall out. If the SPY stays within this zone, I believe the markets will simply roll around in a tight range and go nowhere today. Thus, I published this article to warn traders not to expect any big trends until we breakout - away from this Fibonacci "Battle Zone". You can't kick the markets to make it go anywhere. And, unless you are trading very short-term swings in price - you are probably better off sitting on the sidelines waiting for a broad market trend to establish. This is a warning. As long as we stay in the Fibonacci "Battle Zone", price will struggle to build any major trend. So, play your trades accordingly - or just take a break from trading while you wait for the markets to roll out of the "Battle Zone". Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
11
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Market Cycle Analysis – Correction coming ?This chart presents a macro view of SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on a bi-weekly timeframe, highlighting key market cycle corrections and potential upcoming trends. Key Observations: 🔴 Trendline Support: The price action has consistently respected a long-term ascending trendline, with previous corrections bouncing off similar levels. 📉 Historical Market Corrections: Red vertical lines mark significant past corrections (Feb 2020, Dec 2021), aligning with dips in the lower indicator, suggesting cyclical downturns. 📊 Momentum Indicator (Lower Panel): Past dips in this momentum indicator (highlighted with red arrows) coincided with major corrections in the SPY chart. The recent downward trend raises concerns about another potential market pullback. 🔮 Future Projection (March 2025?): Based on previous cycles, the next major correction could occur around March 2025, aligning with potential trendline retests. If history repeats, we may see a pullback before resuming the uptrend. Key Questions for Traders & Investors: ✅ Will SPY respect the trendline and recover, or are we heading for a deeper correction? ✅ Does the current market structure resemble past cycle downturns? ✅ How will macroeconomic conditions influence SPY’s next move? Let me know your thoughts! Are you preparing for a correction, or do you see more upside potential? 🚀📉 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly!
AMEX:SPYShort
by Brian_Heady
2
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 7 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above. Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning. My group in my signature, get these first, then ideas, and then minds; I also post these for QQQ TSLA META VIX in my group, so join if y'all haven't. Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions. Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change. If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91. Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 30 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support! Need any other charts daily, Or how to trade this? Comment on this.
AMEX:SPY
by OnePunchMan91
1
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 10 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above. Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning. My group in my signature, get these first, then ideas, and then minds; I also post these for QQQ TSLA META VIX in my group, so join if y'all haven't. Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions. Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change. If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91. Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 30 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support! Need any other charts daily, Or how to trade this? Comment on this
AMEX:SPY
by OnePunchMan91
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 9 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above. Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning. My group in my signature, get these first, then ideas, and then minds; I also post these for QQQ TSLA META VIX in my group, so join if y'all haven't. Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions. Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change. If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91. Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 30 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support! Need any other charts daily, Or how to trade this? Comment on this
AMEX:SPY
by OnePunchMan91
Trade with me! Walkthrough as I short SPY on a 1 min chartThis is a long video and unfortunately we got cut off at the 1 HR mark right before the ensuing dump toward our TP level (currently 5 minutes after the video up 30% on the position). Recommend watching on 2x, 3x, 4x speed if you want but also a lot of insights as to what I'm looking out for through my typing. I would have liked to do this with a mic but I'm in a loud environment and wanted to get this out to you. Hope you enjoy and aren't bored (which sometimes, trading is just boring!) Happy Trading :)
AMEX:SPYShort
by ReigningTrades
2