Is Stock Market Bouncing Here or Continue Crashing?Stock Market Analysis | NASDAQ:QQQ & AMEX:SPY
Mag 7 Analysis | NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA AAPL AMZN MSFT GOOGL META
SPY trade ideas
$SPY obvious? Can we believe it?All from standpointโs of chart, politics, consumerism, fear, uncertainty, and ego, this shows all signs to $455-$470, right? It would only be a 23% decline off the highs which were trading 6 weeks ago, lol.
WSL.
SPY going down down downI just make simple technical charts, and have no idea about matters at play from leaders in plain sight as well as those behind the curtains.
Things can only crash when they have been inflated. So far SPY is still in long term uptrend. Only when it drops below the thick blue lower line and stay below, it will be a down trend to me.
RSI on the daily hangs around 23. Switch to the monthly chart and the RSI is only at 50 yet. Plenty of room to go down! Remember, the all time highs of 2021 and 2023 were around 450. Fridays close was at 505!
Post-Liberation Day Sell-Off โ Crash or Correction?Liberation Day has turned into a dramatic "blow the markets back out" day for the SPY , with a significant daily drop of nearly 6%, slicing decisively below the critical 200-day moving average at $574.46. Historically, breaking below the 200-day MA is a strong bearish signal, indicating potential further downside momentum.
The previously identified key bearish pivot, the "Best Price Short" at $565.16, served as a crucial resistance level from which sellers aggressively stepped in, intensifying today's sell-off. Given the current bearish sentiment, the next immediate downside targets without a significant bounce (dead-cat bounce) include:
Half 1 Short (Momentum target): $505.28 (already tested)
High Vol Momentum Target 1a: $497.66
Half 2 Short (secondary bearish momentum): $486.41
Extended Momentum Target (HH Vol Momo Target 2a): $475.16
For traders who missed the initial move, look to re-enter shorts if there's a modest retracement toward the previously broken "Weeks High Short" at $520.16, maintaining tight risk control with stops ideally set just above the "Best Price Short" ($565.16).
Critical levels summary:
Ideal Short Re-entry Zone: $520.16
Profit Targets: $497.66, $486.41, and ultimate $475.16
Stop Loss Area: Slightly above $565.16
Major Broken Support (Resistance now): 200-day MA at $574.46
Today's significant volume spike further reinforces bearish conviction. RSI is deeply oversold at 23.24, suggesting caution for potential short-term bounce, but any bounce is likely to be short-lived unless there's a substantial political or economic pivot soon.
These levels are algorithmically defined, designed to remove emotions from trading. Trade responsibly, adhere to your strategy, and protect your capital.
US stock market vs CryptoUS stock market vs Crypto
Here's a YOY comparison chart of the US stock market vs Crypto. While all US stock market indices are down year over year, crypto is still up. Is crypto a better investment, or is this a temporary snapshot in time? Please drop a line and let me know your opinion.
SPY -3.3%
QQQ -4.88%
DIA -3.68%
IWM -13.8%
TOTAL +4.93%
TOTAL3 +3.24%
$SPY Intraday patterns in oversold conditions This video shows common chart patterns play out in real time. This is bullish descending wedge pattern that played out beautifully--also highlighting how oversold conditions can fuel bullish pivots.
Thanks for viewing, boosting, and following!
SPY: Key Support Zones in FocusIf SPY drops to 490, that's nearly a 20% decline from its 611.39 peak. The 490โ500 zone may stabilize recent volatility, but if it breaks, watch 470 โ a key support and 20% below last yearโs close.
Donโt trade momentum rev strat is a reversal
2-1-2 bearish/bullish is a reversal
2-1-2 continuation is not a reversal itโs momentum
Update for Mentorship on Trades and Key Levels $TSLA $SPY $NVDAUpdate for mentorship members on trades we've taken this week, Fib levels, support, divergence, potential tariff exemptions.
Magnificent Value Index with Opacity CandlesThis script idea is rather old but very enlightening about the current state of the market.
It looks at the RSI or MFI values of all Mag 7 stocks, averages them out and compares it to qqq's rsi or mfi as a differential.
Real shame tradingview doesn't allow free users to participate in publishing indicators and it's a real shame the war their employees support is being lost.
Make whatever conclusions you will from this.
Good luck, we're all living in a global idiocratic world now ruled by people infected with Affluenza .
Franco trade 0.0//@version=5
strategy("OBV + Moving Averages Strategy", overlay=true)
// ๅๆธ่จญ็ฝฎ
length_OBV = input(1, "OBV ๅข้") // OBV็่ฎๅ้ฅๅผ
length_maVolume = input(50, "50ๆฅๅ้") // 50ๆฅๅ้
length_maShort = input(5, "5ๆฅๅ็ท") // 5ๆฅๅ็ท
length_maLong = input(13, "13ๆฅๅ็ท") // 13ๆฅๅ็ท
take_profit = input(0.1, "ๆญข็ๆฏไพ (10%)") // 10%ๆญข็
stop_loss = input(0.05, "ๆญขๆๆฏไพ (5%)") // 5%ๆญขๆ
// ่จ็ฎๆ่กๆๆจ
obvValue = ta.cum(ta.volume * math.sign(ta.change(close))) // OBVๆๆจ
maVolume = ta.sma(volume, length_maVolume) // 50ๆฅๅ้
maShort = ta.sma(close, length_maShort) // 5ๆฅๅ็ท
maLong = ta.sma(close, length_maLong) // 13ๆฅๅ็ท
// ่ฒทๅ
ฅๆขไปถ
buy_condition = ta.crossover(maShort, maLong) and // 5ๆฅๅ็ทไธ็ฉฟ13ๆฅๅ็ท
obvValue > ta.highest(obvValue , length_OBV) and // OBVๅตๆฐ้ซ
volume > maVolume // ๆไบค้ๅคงๆผ50ๆฅๅ้
// ่ณฃๅบๆขไปถ
sell_condition = ta.crossunder(maShort, maLong) or // 5ๆฅๅ็ท่ท็ ด13ๆฅๅ็ท
obvValue < ta.lowest(obvValue , length_OBV) or // OBV่ตฐๅผฑ
strategy.position_size > 0 and (strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + take_profit) < close or // ้ๅฐๆญข็็ฎๆจ
strategy.position_avg_price * (1 - stop_loss) > close) // ้ๅฐๆญขๆ็ฎๆจ
// ๅท่กไบคๆ็ญ็ฅ
if buy_condition
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long)
if sell_condition
strategy.close("Long")
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 3, 2025๐ฎ ๐ฎ
๐ Market-Moving News ๐:
๐บ๐ธ๐ President Trump's 'Liberation Day' Tariffs Implemented: On April 2, President Donald Trump announced a series of new tariffs, referred to as "Liberation Day" tariffs, aiming to address trade imbalances. These include a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, with higher rates for specific countries: 34% on Chinese goods, 20% on European Union products, and 25% on all foreign-made automobiles. The administration asserts these measures will revitalize domestic industries, though critics warn of potential price increases for consumers and possible retaliatory actions from affected nations.
๐ Key Data Releases ๐
๐
Thursday, April 3:
๐ Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 225,000โ
Previous: 224,000โ
Measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, providing insight into the labor market's health.โ
๐ Trade Balance (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -$76.0 billionโ
Previous: -$131.4 billionโ
Indicates the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services, reflecting the nation's trade activity.โ
๐ข ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 53.0โ
Previous: 53.5โ
Assesses the performance of the services sector; a reading above 50 suggests expansion.โ
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.โ
๐ #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY, S&P 500 expected to correct to 500 before further upsideBased on RSI divergence, EW count and volume support it seems likely that SPY will correct to equal leg (ABC) region between 480-520 before the correction is over and further upside can be seen.
SPY Divergence - Bullish Comeback?SPY is showing quite a significant bullish divergence on the Daily timeframe. This appears to concur with a potential double-bottom formation. We also see the RSI beginning to poke up through it's moving average:
Alongside this we see a Rug Pull target on the 4h timeframe of the ES1! S&P futures ticker.
Rug-pull events on this ticker have seen a great degree of accuracy over the past few years, as seen below:
This rug-pull target alongside strong divergence on the higher timeframes indicates a high probability the markets will trend towards the upside in the near future.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 2, 2025 ๐ฎ ๐ฎ
๐ Market-Moving News ๐:
๐บ๐ธ๐ President Trumpโs 'Liberation Day' Tariff Announcement: President Donald Trump is set to announce new reciprocal tariffs on April 2, aiming to align U.S. import duties with those imposed by other countries on American goods. This move is expected to impact various sectors, including automotive and manufacturing, and may lead to market volatility as investors react to potential shifts in trade policies. โ
๐ Key Data Releases ๐
๐
Wednesday, April 2:
๐ญ Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.6%โ
Previous: 1.7%โ
Indicates the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, reflecting manufacturing demand.โ
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.โ
๐ #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
overview after the close quick overview after the close. I wasn't happy with the pump at the end of the day but I still lean bearish for some reasons I discuss.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 1, 2025๐ฎ ๐ฎ
๐ Market-Moving News ๐:
๐บ๐ธ๐ ISM Manufacturing PMI Release: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, which could influence market sentiment.โ
๐บ๐ธ๐๏ธ Construction Spending Data: The U.S. Census Bureau will report on February's construction spending, providing insights into the health of the construction industry and potential impacts on related sectors.โ
๐บ๐ธ๐ Job Openings Report: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February will be released, offering a view into labor demand and potential implications for wage growth and consumer spending.โ
๐ Key Data Releases ๐
๐
Tuesday, April 1:
๐ญ ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 49.5%โ
Previous: 50.3%
Assesses the health of the manufacturing sector; a reading below 50% suggests contraction.โ
๐๏ธ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.3%โ
Previous: -0.2%โ
Measures the total value of construction work done; indicates trends in the construction industry.โ
๐ Job Openings (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 7.7 millionโ
Previous: 7.7 millionโ
Provides insight into labor market demand by reporting the number of job vacancies.โ
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.โ
๐ #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY: SPY looking a bit like scary hour? Continuous tariff newโs scaring the market. Many continue to say Bearish then some say Bullish.
Looking like it can retest the demand zone I see at the 1M at 584.83 but today 3/30 on AH looks like things may be gapping down already.
What are your thoughts?
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 31 โ April 4, 2025๐ฎ ๐ฎ
๐ Market-Moving News ๐:
๐บ๐ธ๐ Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report: The March employment data, set for release on Friday, April 4, is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, with forecasts predicting an increase of 140,000 nonfarm payrolls, down from 151,000 in February. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.1%. This report will be closely monitored for signs of economic momentum and potential impacts on Federal Reserve policy. โ
๐บ๐ธ๐ผ President Trump's Tariff Announcement: President Donald Trump is scheduled to unveil his "reciprocal tariffs" plan on Wednesday, April 2, dubbed "Liberation Day." The announcement is anticipated to include a 25% duty on imported vehicles, which could significantly impact the automotive industry and broader market sentiment. Investors are bracing for potential volatility in response to these trade policy developments. โ
๐บ๐ธ๐ Manufacturing and Services Sector Updates: Key indicators for the manufacturing and services sectors are due this week. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, scheduled for Tuesday, April 1, is expected to show a slight contraction with a forecast of 49.5%, down from 50.3% in February. The ISM Services PMI, set for release on Thursday, April 3, is projected at 53.0%, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace. These reports will provide insights into the health of these critical sectors. โ
MarketWatch
๐ Key Data Releases ๐
๐
Monday, March 31:
๐ญ Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) (9:45 AM ET):
Forecast: 45.5โ
Previous: 43.6โ
Measures business conditions in the Chicago area, with readings below 50 indicating contraction.โ
๐
Tuesday, April 1:
๐๏ธ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.3%โ
Previous: -0.2%โ
Indicates the total amount spent on construction projects, reflecting trends in the construction industry.โ
๐ Job Openings (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 7.7 millionโ
Previous: 7.7 millionโ
Provides insight into labor demand by measuring the number of job vacancies.โ
๐
Wednesday, April 2:
๐ญ Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.6%โ
Previous: 1.7%โ
Reflects the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, indicating manufacturing demand.โ
๐
Thursday, April 3:
๐ Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 226,000โ
Previous: 224,000โ
Measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing insight into labor market conditions.โ
๐ Trade Balance (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -$123.0 billionโ
Previous: -$131.4 billionโ
Indicates the difference between exports and imports of goods and services, reflecting the nation's trade activity.โ
๐
Friday, April 4:
๐ต Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.3%โ
Previous: 0.3%โ
Measures the change in earnings per hour for workers, indicating wage inflation.โ
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.โ
๐ #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
$SPY down to 515 area during this leg down.IMHO,
I see a path for the SPY during this leg down to drop to the 515 area.
SPY to follow DJT and XHBIn last year's big move up SPY trailed DJT (Dow Jones Transportation Index) and XHB (A Homebuilders ETF) by 2-months and 1-month respectively. In November, DJT crashed. In December, XHB crashed. It's January now. If nothing is being delivered, and homebuilders have no one to sell to that can't be good for the greater market.
