Channel and Wedge at XOP ETFPodemos ver un Canal Ascendente y una Cuña bajista en el SPDR SERIES TRUST
XOP trade ideas
THE WEEK AHEAD: XOP/XLE, GDXJ/GDX, KRE, EWZ, IWM/RUTEARNINGS:
It's a light week for earnings announcements, which means it's an even lighter week for options liquid underlyings, none of which meet my cut-off for 30-day implied >50%.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE THE JANUARY AT THE MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE:
XOP (18/59/15.8%)
GDXJ (16/42/13.2%)
XLE (26/46/11.6%)
KRE (24/40/11.4%)
GDX (17/40/11.4%)
USO (7/46/11.0%)
EWZ (15/39/10.6%)
SLV (25/38/10.3%)
Honorable Mention:
GLD (23.5/18.5/5.0%)
* * *
Pictured here is an XOP January 15th 46 short put, which was paying .92 as of Friday close (2.04% ROC as a function of notional risk at max; 15.5% annualized at max). I still like bullish assumption, pandemic recovery plays in the oil space, although implied volatility has bled out quite a bit here, and the break even (45.08) would be above the 2020 lows.
GLD gets an honorable mention here due to its being nearly 15% off of its early August highs with the January 15th strike nearest the 16 delta (the 157) paying .94 as of Friday's close (.60% as a function of notional risk at max; 4.6% annualized). The ROC %-age isn't great, however, but if you're looking to establish a gold position, now might be the time to consider starting one. I'm already working one here, (See Post Below), and will consider adding once December out-of-the-money's fall off or I manage them.
Alternatively, look to establish a position in SLV, GDXJ, or the more liquid GDX, all of which are more scalable due to size and provide more bang for your buck, with the GDXJ January 15th 42 paying .70 (1.7% ROC as a function of notional risk; 12.9% annualized), the GDX January 15th 30 paying .40 (1.4% ROC at max; 10.3% annualized), and the SLV January 15th 19 paying .30 (1.6% ROC at max as a function of notional risk; 12.9% annualized at max).
For those of a defined risk bent, the GLD January 15th 153/158 short put vertical was paying .54 at the mid as of Friday close (10.8% ROC at max; 82.1% annualized).
BROAD MARKET
IWM (23/29/7.8%)
QQQ (19/25/6.9%)
DIA (16/22/5.8%)
SPY (13/21/5.3%)
EFA (16/18/4.6%)
Volatility has pissed out mightily here, and the <10% the at-the-money short straddles are paying in the January cycle are reflective of that.
The IWM January 15th 157 short put was paying .94 (.6% ROC at max as a function of notional risk; 4.6% annualized) as of Friday close, which isn't exactly great. Here, defined is more compelling from a pure ROC %-age return perspective (it usually is), with the IWM January 15th 158/163 was paying .54 as of Friday's close (10.8% ROC at max; 82.1% annualized) and its cash-settled counterpart RUT, paying 5.10 for the January 15th 1610/1660 with similar ROC %-age metrics with the short option legs camped out at the 16 delta strike. Naturally, you can be more aggressive, bringing in the setup more toward the expected move.
4th Dimensional Price-Square Completion on January 3rd, 2022Using the bottom trendline, we can place a trendline along the top of the graph. Using the left-handed spiral time series in bars before each reversal area {11, 22, 33, 55}, presented in my past xop idea, and a harmonic starting before the crash and through the first two vectors, we find that the top and bottom of the trendlines at the next two time zones correspond to acceptable fib and fib derivations of the harmonic. We can see that if we add another bullish harmonic from A to E then there should be an extension of the harmonic up to G that is acceptable for that harmonic to work (See Pictures Below). Before my final step, I added vector AB to the origin price to find the top of the 4th-dimensional square created by the vector. Finally, Using a 1 to 4 wave trendline to find price at point 6, I added the final vector trading days to the overall time series trading days, multiplying the total trading days by the slope of the two points and adding that value to the origin price. You can see these final two steps below.
1. Price of 4th Dimensional Square created by V(AB) = A + V(AB) = 121.95
2. Price- Square Completion A-D Slope-Intercept:
i. Add V(DE) to time: 359 + 103 = 462 bars
ii. A + ( ( ( Ay-Dy ) / ( Ax-Dx ) ) * 462 bars ) = 29.25 + ( ( ( 29.25-81.02 ) / ( 0-258 ) ) * 462 ) = 121.95 on Jan 3rd, 2022.
XOP long on pull-back Target 60The energy pack broke out of a multi-month downtrend, and pierced through anchored quarterly VWAP and it's 1 stdev. After a strong move, it's doing what bulls want it to do - after strong candle 1 and 4, retracing from 2nd Stdev before the next leg up. Expect continuation of the TD sequential.
Target 59-60 to profit take, its immediate support at 47, strong support at 44.
Position: Long call
Disclaimer: These should be seen as the commentator's Notes to Self. Hopefully educational but aiming for entertaining. No legal or financial liabilities should be pursued from these materials.
Strong Evidence of Time Zone ReversalsAs you can see, the initial wave top uptrend high from the march low was reversed at 56 bars. The next movement from the june high to the july low was 32 days (23 bars). The following movement from the july low to the august high was, again, 32 days (22 bars). Both 32 day movements were a part of the redistribution phase of a price correction in XOP's components. The downtrend movement, again, had a minor uptick at 32 days; however, this price correction downtrend then continued further on to 56 bars. At 56 bars, a clear double bottom reversal pattern that conformed to commonly agreed upon percentages appeared. The drop from the 32 uptick down to the initial bottom was approximately 19% which fit between the normal 10-20% drawdown of a double bottom. The second bottom at 56 bars was approximately 2% lower than the initial bottom which fit within the maximum +/- 4% of a double bottom pattern. This pattern signifies a reversal of the downtrend, and was last seen in the month of March.
If we are to take this pattern at face value, since news and market geometry should not change dramatically any time soon, a 101 bar uptrend and consolidation phase began on last Thursday's trading. We, then, should look for a long position for another 21-22 bars (30 more days/November 30th). We could short into the middle of the 22-23 bar or 32 day (16 days/December 16th) consolidation phase, where a small inverse-head and shoulders pattern should appear. Again, we, could look for a long position for the 56 bar uptrend(Plus 16 days or half of the uptick within the consolidation phase), at which point, we could short again for another 32 days. Please notice, I have circled each possible reversal point and color coded them to either gains (green) or losses (red).
I also wanted to point out that there is a time correlation to 45 bars and the completion of the 56 bar trend reversal phases. As you can see, the first difference in bars was 11, the second was 22, the third then should be 33, and presumed completion of this cycle would then be 44. One more time correlation which I have yet to key out is the 57 day time zone from low to low. I have included it within the analysis because somewhere within the following unfolding trading days, I am sure this pattern will also become clear. It appears, so far, that the pattern could be 57 day, 57 days, 22 bars, 22 bars, 22 bars, ....??? Once the next uptrend and consolidation phase is finished, I am sure this time zone correlation will become clear.
Finally, the entire cycle take 360 days. This time frame is important because it is the 2.5 multiple of the universal harmonic 144, or the 30th multiple of 12. The time frame also corresponds to a perfect 2pi circular revolution of the unit circle with a radius of 1; furthermore, it signifies the 2pi period of a wave function. It is my belief that the 2 different time zone correlations described above are different wave patterns that both exist in correlation and interference to one-another within this perfect circle and wave period.
Bullish Gartley Pattern Bottom FishingLong entry at or over entry level with an uptrend
Possible T2 93.05 to 107
Top 10 Holdings
DVN - Devon Energy Corp3.86%
FANG - Diamondback Energy Inc3.72%
PE - Parsley Energy Inc A3.68%
COP - ConocoPhillips3.63%
OXY - Occidental Petroleum Corp3.58%
CXO - Concho Resources Inc3.56%
COG - Cabot Oil & Gas Corp Class A3.48%
HES - Hess Corp3.46%
MPC - Marathon Petroleum Corp3.43%
PXD - Pioneer Natural Resources Co3.42%
Not a recommendation
Cup and Handle Formation and Possible Entry and Target PricesA cup and handle has formed on the hourly chart. As price struggles to find direction, it will either break out or fall to the old support and get squeezed into a breakout to the upside. If price breaks above the trendline and holds at or around any of these points, entry positions can be made and held until the conservative target price of +7.23 is reached.
Long To Primary Wave Top 2 First of all, excuse the typo in the graph. I said vector CD ratio when I meant AD. Anyway. I used the closing values for point 3 and point 4 to calculate my positive and negative linear slopes. It would seem that the Xop downtrend bottom has been acquired. Although, using point 3's absolute low gives a value of about 37 at point 5 which could be reached next week. If so, this would be a great entry point. Applying the same concept to the positive linear slope on point 4 would give us a value of 77.44 at point 6. I prefer to stick to my more conservative calculation of 73 at point 6. All anyone has to do now is buy and ride it up. I suggest buying GUSH for approximate gains of 350%.
Descending Wedge Breakout and Next Wave Top DatesIf XOP's support at the bold red line holds, then there will be a breakout to the upside any time from tomorrow to next Monday. If XOP's support at the bold red line breaks, then there will be a breakout to the upside around 12 - 14 days from now. Furthermore, a breakout to the upside could lead an incoming rally with a golden cross in about half a month to a month. This situation would key out an extremely rare case, by bullishly breaking through the upside of the large bearish symmetric that has formed. The bearish symmetric is indicated by the large bold blue lines in the graph.
XOP Possible Next Major Wave : sqrt((82^2)+(42.66^2))((4.732+.4142)/4) = 238 normal days (164 Trading Days)
XOP Intermediate Wave Confirmation of Major Wave Top : sqrt((43^2)+(26.35^2))*((37.732+.4142)/8) = 240 normal days (166 Trading Days)
XOP Minor Wave Confirmation of Major Wave Top : sqrt((16^2)+(16.02^2))*(41.732+.4142)/4) = 238 normal days or (164 Trading Days)
Mean Time to Wave Top: 239 normal days (165 Trading Days)
Mode Time to Wave Top: 238 normal Days (164 Trading Days)
Predicted Time - Current Time = Expected Wave Top Date: 238 - 195 = 43 normal days (Approximately 30 Trading Days)
Date: 11/12/2020 - 11/13/2020 (November)
XOP to Long, Daily Demand ZoneDaily demand Zone
FIB# 0.618
Entry: 47.5
Stop: 44;
Target: 70; reward:risk=6:1
I am not a PRO trader. I need few months to practice trading strategies.
If you like this idea, please use SIM/Demo account to try it, until my trading plans get high winning rate.
This is my 101th active trade in tradingview ideas.
Overall, I created 7 scripts, 15 analysis only ideas, and 101 active trading plans;
in Closed trades: 55 win, 15 loss;
in Open trades: 11 win, 14 loss, 6 make even;
Need to improve:
Most of the loss is because buying OTM option without stop, lost timing value in side way in past two months in finance, Bio-tech, Oil sectors.
XOP Long Daily demand Zone was Confirmed
Trendline Break, and re-test
Entry: 50
Stop: 44;
Target: 75; risk/reward=1:4
I am not a Pro trader. I need few months to work on rule based trading strategies.
If you like it, thank you for your support. Please use SIM/Demo account to try it, until my trading plans get high winning rate consistently.
Support In A Downtrend Appears to be trying to roll up after losing primary channel (blue). Generally bearish bias, with MACD bearish and RSI bearish as well.
Short term potential for a wedge breakout, rolling up into a volume shelf at the 52-53 level which could act as resistance, as well as previous support lost at 54.50 which would also act as resistance. Like to see these resistances fall before considering a long play. Failure to overcome the resistances would be a a nice position to enter into a short or puts.
