XPEV/N trade ideas
2022 Might Be a Winning Year for Xpeng – and the Stock Is FinallOn July 7, 2021, the company was listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange under the code '9868.'
We estimate Xpeng's 2022 revenue to show the value of the stock.
The methodology includes the forecast of sales of P7, G3&G3i and the upcoming P5 and SUV models.
The results indicate that the stock is currently fairly priced
Risks primarily come from supply chain and market regulation but remain controllable.
With the current global chip shortage, most major auto OEMs have suffered from a lack of electronic supplies. Amid these concerns, China's EV sales are burgeoning, with light EV sales hitting 241,000, or 15% of total light vehicles sales in June, 2021. Among the country's EV pioneers, Xpeng (XPEV:NYSE) has recently presented some positive results: its half-year delivery number has surpassed last year's figure. This article presents a forecast of the company's EV sales in 2022 and evaluates its stock by analyzing each model of Xpeng and using the valuation multiples.
Model-level breakdown
P7 is Xpeng's hit product. Simplifying the modelling, we project the sales of P7 to increase by 184, 100 and 50 units month-on-month until 2023; 184 is the average monthly increase since the model's launch, while the incremental decrease is due to the upcoming P5 and 2022 SUV models. The average selling price will be around CNY 250,000, the same as in 2020.
G3&G3i are the oldest models of Xpeng. The updated version G3i transformed into a more unified family design and attracted more sales. We estimate G3 and G3i will keep lifting sales volume by 46 per month during the same period. The average selling price will be around CNY 150,000 per unit.
P5 will shoulder the company's expectations to become a family sedan. We estimate P5's first-month delivery number in October will be at around 1,000, referring to P7's data. Then the delivery figure will increase by 143 units per month, of which 100 will be at the cost of P7 sales declining, as the two models compete with each other, and 43 is organic growth. Based on the official price starting from CNY 160,00 to 230,000, we predict the ASP will be at CNY 190,000.
Xpeng is planning to launch a new SUV model. The SUV has a family design 'X' logo that brings its length to 4,800 mm. The car design shares the same platform as the P7, the Edward platform. In addition, it will be equipped with premium specifications like XPilot 4.0 and air suspension. Some industry experts predict the price will be around CNY 300,000. We assume Xpeng will finish its launch day by September 2022. The first-month sale will be 300 units, which will increase by 145 units per month similar to the sales trajectory of NIO's ES6.
Apart from EV sales, other services will account for 5% of total revenue. The 2022 EV sales won't be significantly impacted by the chip shortage.
To sum up, Xpeng's 2022 revenue is projected to reach USD 4.3 billion (CNY 28 billion). Specifically, the company will sell 122,253 vehicles to make USD 4.1 billion topline, and USD 0.25 billion will be from other services. According to the Street's expectations, the stock is priced at 16, 8.8, 5.6, 4, 2.9 forward PS ratios by 2025. We select 9x as the 2022 multiples. Thus, the market cap will be USD 38.7 billion, around 10% up from the market cap on July 27, 2021.
Risks
Although the expectations for Xpeng are rather bright, the whole industry is facing the chip shortage problem – that is also the biggest threat to Xpeng. For NEV companies, production is challenging while orders are packed. Through our research, we found that most auto stakeholders in China expect the imbalance to last through 2021, affecting the global light-vehicle sales by 2.5-5.0%, but recover slightly in 2022.
The edtech sector's regulatory update drove the recent sell-off in Chinese concept stocks. However, this crackdown won't be a long-term issue for EV innovators like Xpeng. According to Bloomberg, the government's motivation is to cut family workloads to turn the declining birth rates up. On the other hand, the 'Made in China 2025' scheme supports EV development radically. So the policy will rather play a positive role in the new energy vehicle market in the long term.
Conclusion
Up to the present, Xpeng has been on the right track, leveraging business through unified family designs, new stores opening, capacity boost and charging facilities build-up. The company's 2022 revenue would be a realistic basis for stocks to start. The most significant potential risk at present is the capacity problem caused by supply chain shortages. Investors should keep an eye on this topic in the company's upcoming Q2 earnings conference.
For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
XPEV price targetsEven though i consider XPEV to be the real Tesla of China, because of the cheaper cars and the technology "stolen" from Tesla, i still think it will revisit the 29usd support short term.
Remember that this is not a profitable company and is still dependent on raising capital for its cars.
in 2020 XPEV revenue was 5.84B, but the Earnings were negative, -2.73B. They also missed the Q3 and Q4 earnings estimates last year.
Jim Cramer (Mad Money) on China's tech crackdown: You can't own Chinese stocks!
ARK Invest dumps Chinese stocks.
It seems dangerous to hold Chinese stocks right now.
US-listed Chinese companies have three years to comply with US accounting oversight, to comply with the rules of accounting and transparency that American public companies must follow, if not they will get delisted.
This looks like the beginning of China`s stock market crash.
I`m looking forward to read your opinion about this!
Xpev.. broke support, bearish channel RSI bearish
OBV bearish
MFI - Flat lined
Next support is at 38.30 where you have 50/200ma and fib intersecting. I expect a drop to 35$ by friday then a dead cat bounce back to 38 before continuing down..
This situation with china cracking down and on top of that small caps and evs have been taking a beating since july.
XPEV - first lookHi,
I met a wonderful person named Kyle at the mtn bike trail head today. He asked if I had looked into the other electric vehicle stocks… and suggested this one.
So, this is what i see as the likely harmonic patterns, influencing our current movements.
The turquoise pattern jumped out to me first. It would make for a lovely head & shoulders to inverse head & shoulders play. (The heads are marked with arrows). I like to include a good bearish or neutral projection as well, to avoid giving anyone any false confidence.
I have noticed that the general structure of a stock argument follows that progression of HS - INVHS. It leaves us with a a few predictable argument levels.
1 - Head (top)
2 - Shoulder level
3 - Mid channel flip - this is usually a quick one
4 - Inv Shoulder
5 - Head (bottom)
Do you see it?
Good Luck!
XPEV swing to $47!!!$44 call for 8-6. Looking for a PT of $47. Could set a stop loss around the equivalent of $37. Technical indicators: sitting above the 200ma, macd crossover, and parabolic sar
Nio Was the Next Tesla. Is This Stock the Next Nio?Electric cars have been one of the most explosive industry groups in recent memory, and now traders may have another name to focus on: smart-vehicle maker XPeng.
Several patterns stand out on the Guangzhou-based company’s chart. First, prices recently tested and held the $37.50 area. That was support in late December and resistance in March and April. It’s also near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
Second, notice how the 50-day SMA is on the verge of crossing up and through the 200-day SMA. A “golden cross” could be coming.
Third, stochastics are rebounding from an oversold condition.
The fundamentals are also potentially positive, with deliveries up more than 600 percent last month. (The sequential gain also increased from 10 percent in May to 15 percent in June.) Additionally, the company successfully priced an initial public offering in Hong Kong, which removes some potential uncertainty.
In conclusion, we spotted the breakout potential in Tesla in late 2019 . We noted early last year how Nio could be the next Tesla . Now the big question is whether XPEV could be the next NIO?
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Showing signs of strength, ready for the next bull run?$XPEV one of the top 3 Chinese EV companies has shown a relatively good strength during the past 3 weeks where the growth and small cap stocks got beaten enormously. The recent decline from nearly $48 to about $37 (38.2% Fibo retracement) may be a wave 2 (1st corective wave) and if so, the next wave will be the string wave 3 to at least $78 area where it will take its ATH at $74.49.
It is possible that wave 2 is not complete yet and we may see another leg down before taking off hard to make new highs as the 3rd impulsive wave.
There are 24 days left to the next earning report and it is expected the report reflects a more than impressive performance as we have seen for the past reports in 2020 and 2021. There is no doubt that the EV companies will grow substantially especially in the coming few years as the mass adoption is accelerating more than expected and $XPEV is one of the promising ones. This is not financial advice, DYODD before investing!
Reverse head and shoulder pattern for Xpeng. Bullish BUllish with long head and shoulder pattern not an financial advise just the idea.
XPEV BULLISH/BEARISH TRADES IDEASVERY VERY NEW to this. Everyday is a learning curve for me so i am sharing to hear others thoughts and opinions about XPEV.
Ready for a pull backExpanding wedge after a massive bull run looks to me like we are in for a pull back to previous high. Any thoughts?
XPEV ready to to charge ahead?An EV maker specialises in SUVs and four-door sports sedan. Recently the stock is making a come back from the break down in Feb 2021.
Since 13 May 2021, XPEV price bottom at $22.72 and has never look back. Currently it is attempting to break out of the range between $37 and $46.
The last few days' volume were higher than regular, but price stayed above $40 support. If this continues, next target will be $46, $51 and $60.
Nearest support is $37 or $33.
XPeng BULL FLAG!I will cut straight to the point here and even save some of the exuberant lines and graphs. Sometimes I try to keep it simple and basic. as the saying goes.. less is more . Having said that I would like to point out not only the bull flag at xpeng or The break above to 50ma close but the staggering comparison to a wykoff events chart. I Will let everyone use their own blank canvas and be the judge. NYSE:XPEV
XPEV a possible pullbackHi I am just a new trader learning analysis, so please take my analysis with a grain of salt.
MACD crosses below signal line, RSI divergence seems to be taking effect now, a possible further pullback to 38.87 support and if it breaks might see short term downside
xpev wave 3 setupthis one's dear.
i have a feeling this wave (1) is finally in, after that face ripping melt up.
Golden Zone is for buying between $29~$30. There's a chance $xpev stops at the .50 algo target - which sits at $32.
Wave 3 target = $91~$100
previous post which got us to where we stand today:
As requested, I'll analyze XPEV today! 👍As @ asadi2 requested, let's see how XPEV is doing!
Yes, XPEV looks interesting, but there a few things that we should be aware of!
Yes, we have a pivot at 41.13, that if broken, could make XPEV fly to the 43 in the blink of an eye.
But in the 4h chart we have a RSI divergence, and an advanced breakdown. These patterns aren’t confirmed yet, but they will be if XPEV loses today’s low: 38.70.
If this happens, then I see XPEV at least at 35, which is the 38.2% fibs retracement and the 20ma area in the daily chart.
We also have a weird divergence in the daily chart too, so be careful!
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See you soon,
Melissa.
XPENGWednesday, 16 June 2021
15:59 PM (WIB)
XPENG has already started the downtrend from below 0.786 with heading to 0.236 F, or even back to 0 F.
Best regards,
RyodaBrainless
"Live to Ride and Ride to Live"
Xpev mid term long plan$XPEV reported solid May delivery numbers that didn’t appear to be affected much by the #semiconductor shortage.
Imagine when #XPEV enters the US market. The indicators and graphs are legit to start buying.
#ElectricVehicles #SmartEV #Stocks
