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Study of DXY, Gold, and Fed Fund Rates using 200MA indicatorBlack line: DXY (U.S. dollar index) Green line: DXY 200 week moving average Yellow line: GC (Gold futures) Blue line: DFF (U.S. Federal Funds Effective Rate) Since 1971 when U.S. dollar went off the gold standard, there have been 6 instances when the DXY crossed below its 200 week moving average while it was rising. At closing on 27 September 2024 was the 7th instance of this DXY crossing. Of interest: Performance of gold when DXY crosses below, until DXY reaches a local minimum. Results are highlighted in purple boxes. Of the 7 instances, interest rates were rising in 4, flat in 1, falling in 1, and presumed to be falling in the current scenario. The only rising rate period was 1985-92, when gold had a very marginal 4% gain. This was notably on the backside of the 1970's high inflation period. Technically, gold showed gains in all but 1 of these historical periods, with 1994-95 showing a 2% loss. Conclusions: 1) DXY trend reversal downward is not always, or often, associated with a U.S. interest rate cutting cycle nor is it strongly correlated with gold price gains. 2) The start of a U.S. interest rate cutting cycle is not predictive of gold price gains.
TVC:DXY
by StrobeT
Rising Global Liquidity: Deflationary Dollar & Rallying EquitiesWhile it's uncommon for the dollar ( TVC:DXY ) and equities (S&P 500) to rise simultaneously, historical instances illustrate that it can occur under specific economic conditions. I think those conditions may be upon us! Historical Examples: 1995: DXY Movement: Strengthening S&P 500 Movement: Rising Context: Strong economic growth and corporate earnings propelled equities higher. 2001-2002: DXY Movement: Strengthening S&P 500 Movement: Rising Context: Economic recovery following the tech bubble burst. 2011: DXY Movement: Strengthening S&P 500 Movement: Rising Context: Safe-haven buying of the dollar amid European debt concerns, while stocks benefited from robust corporate earnings. March 2020: DXY Movement: Strengthening S&P 500 Movement: Rising (post-COVID) Context: Initial flight to safety due to uncertainty, followed by stimulus-driven stock market recovery. Mid-Late 2025 - Crescendo: DXY Movement: Potential strength driven by deflationary AI Pressure cheapening productivity & labor cycles S&P 500 Movement: Rising markets as all assets rally as a result of increased liquidity from stimulus Context: it takes a few months for stimulus to reach assets- the next few *years* might have stimulus coming. Inflate the debt away while the dollar rises? These historical instances suggest that a strengthening dollar *can* coexist with rising equities, particularly in environments characterized by global liquidity increases. Given the chart, we have a convergence of two long term trend lines, first in the ascending channel on the ‘short term’ (1yr candles, in top photo ascending channel). Then for the longer term ‘cup’ trend going back decades (ref bottom RSI momentum dating back to 1980s), *that* might show that we truly are on the cusp of incredible amounts of stimulus. What do you think? Is it possible that the dollar goes higher while we receive trillions in stimulus? Is this the fuel for the ‘everything rally’?
TVC:DXY
by httpz
Possible Trend of the Dollar Index in 2023In this idea, the trend of the dollar index in 2023 is shown. In 2022, due to the fall of the stock index of most industrialized countries, we saw the growth of the dollar index, and the final resistance line according to the Fibonacci tool set at the Fibonacci level of 1.41 and the index at 114. but after that, the dollar index began to fall, and this fall has three hard resistance levels ahead, and the hardest level is the range between Fibonacci 0.38-0.5. Good luck. SEYED
TVC:DXY
by SEYED98
7
Dollar index sellAs dollar index was bearish all the week and in my view it will remain bearish for the next week as Dxy is moving in a falling wedge in which it has completed its 4 waves over H4 to H1 TF and going to complete its last wave 🌊 E if this pattern is not a failed pattern then DXY will remian Bearish all the next week also we our team has observed that Dollar is Bearish on All timeframes from Monthly to weekly to Daily to H4 to H1 so we will be bearish for the next week as Geopolitics is concerned we can predict a downward move in dollar index Hope for the good 👍😊
TVC:DXYShort
by Wakeel_Saab
End of the week analysis27th September DXY: Price could trade higher to retest 100.90, if bearish trendline held, could trade back down to 100.55 NZDUSD: Buy 0.6290 SL 20 TP 40 AUDUSD: Buy 0.6905 SL 15 TP 50 GBPUSD: Sell 1.3290 SL 25 TP 75 (if support holds) Buy 1.3345 SL 30 TP 80 EURUSD: Sell 1.1090 SL 25 TP 80 USDJPY: Could range 143 to 144.50, Buy 145 SL 50 TP 200 USDCHF: Nothing for now USDCAD: Sell 1.3480 SL 25 TP 60 Gold: Could retrace down to 2640-2652 range, look for reaction there.
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
EURUSD end of day updateTechnically it is not the end of the day because in the U.S. the markets are still open, but as a last update for the day on the Dollar we will switch to the 30 min timeframe and see what happens: if from now on we will get a nice 30 min correction with its correlated cross in red on the macd (simulated with a brush) and the price will not just drop to retest the low, tomorrow again we will look for buy setups (so sells on eurusd, gbpusd and possibly gold). If instead the price will drop strongly to the downside and will give a small correction to the upside - light blue arrows (which would most likely be a 5 minute timeframe red cross on the macd for the impulse and a subsequent green cross on the macd for the correction) then we will temporarily forget the sells on the xxxusd pairs and check if there are any buy setups that are worth it.
TVC:DXY
by TradingClear
DXY - MidtermThe FED surprised the markets with a 0.50 point preemptive rate cut. We expect this preemptive cut to cause a downward movement in the dollar index. However, we do not foresee a long-term downtrend. While the FED started the process with a larger-than-expected cut, other central banks had already begun their rate-cutting cycles much earlier. Therefore, after a brief decline, we expect the dollar index to stabilize and rise again. Technically, the first of our two major support levels, 100.6, has been broken. We now expect the decline to continue towards the second major support zone between 99.4 and 99.75. The double-top technical formation on short-term charts also supports the downward momentum. If the price finds support in the 99.4 - 99.75 range, we could see a rise towards the 102.2 - 103 area. As for the impact on other dollar pairs, we expect to see upward movements in XxxUsd pairs and downward movements in UsdXxx pairs.
TVC:DXY
by TradeAndMeApp
Dollar bulls are strong hereIt has now been exactly a month since the DXY dropped to its price at the start of the year, which also serves as a technical support level. The price has bounced back from this zone twice but has failed to break above the 102 resistance, falling back each time. However, each time the bears attempted a decisive break downward, the bulls stepped in and pushed the price back up. Although the price did dip below the support zone on two occasions, these breaks were minor (around 0.2%) and did not qualify as significant. Yesterday, the price once again reversed strongly from this well-established support zone. It seems as though the bulls are waiting for a catalyst to trigger a true reversal. I anticipate that the USD will strengthen in the coming days and weeks. A break above the 102 resistance would confirm a bottom and open the path for further gains, with 104 as the next target.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
4
USD - An end-of-month rebalancing bounce in the beaten up buckUSD - An end-of-month/QTR rebalancing bounce in the offering. A rise in long-end US yields and the start of month-end rebalancing flows overnight helped the beaten-up USD index, the DXY, bounce from a fourteen-month low. The rule of thumb for month-end/QTR-end rebalancing flows, whether it be in stock indices, bonds or FX, is to "buy the losers and sell the winners. " On top of it being a regular month-end rebalance, it's also a quarterly rebalance. For the quarter, the USD index, the DXY, has lost -4.65%. Within the details, the JPY has been the big winner as it surged 10.07%, while GBP has gained 5.29%. Hence, the expected flows likely to consist of strong USD buying against most pairs, but in particular against the JPY and GBP. For those interested in a trade into month/QTR end, look for the USD index, the DXY to bounce back towards 101.80, leaning against the double low print overnight at 100.20. A view which is also supported by bullish divergence on the RSI indicator.
TVC:DXYLong
by IG_com