DXY | daily outlookYALL LIKE THE NEW FACE LIFT??
Price tapped into a refined demand zone after breaking short-term structure, confirming bullish intent. Entry was executed on the mitigation of a prior imbalance, with confluence from BOS (Break of Structure) and trendline liquidity sweep.
Now aiming for the next H1 supply zone where price is likely to react. Bullish continuation expected as long as price holds above 98.080.
TP set just before the high to secure profits before potential distribution.
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DX.F trade ideas
DXY Daily And 4hr chart analaysis The DXY remains in a bearish trend and is expected to continue declining toward the 99.442 level. From there, a potential reversal could occur, with a projected target around 95.75. However, while I anticipate the index may reach that level, there’s also a realistic possibility it could reverse earlier around the 96.00 area and resume a bullish trend from that point.
DXY Market Outlook: Eyes on 99.392Hello Traders,
DXY found buyers at the 97.921 level we tracked last week and managed to close daily candles above this level. We can now refer to this area as a rejection block (D + RB). This week, the block was retested and encountered rejection from buyers.
With this buyer reaction, our target is the peak level of the consolidation that brought the price here (99.392).
There's a minor level to watch along the way: 98.586. However, considering the key level where the price reacted and the weekly chart showing no major obstacles ahead, we believe that targeting the peak of the consolidation that initiated the last decline (99.392) is the more suitable approach.
Taking news data into account—and more importantly, geopolitical factors and unexpected developments—we still acknowledge the possibility of the price sweeping the low again. However, we don’t expect this to invalidate the overall scenario. With news catalysts, we anticipate the price reaching the target within the week.
Until the next update, wish you many pips!
DXY BULLISH MOMENTUM ABOUT TO BEGIN !The recent price action shows lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish market structure. The latest move bounced slightly off the 98 level, suggesting it is being respected as support, further US attacked Iran called successful operation which in my opinion could give a boost to DXY . watch tightly !
TA BY MIRZA
DXY US DOLLAR INDEXAs we can see on the chart, there’s a clear pattern emerging. The current movement of the index closely resembles the price action we saw between April 2015 and August 2018.
Assuming this fractal continues to play out, we could see more sideways movement until the end of the year — before a potential trend reversal kicks in.
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.48
1st Support: 97.62
1st Resistance: 99.47
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Dollar In Fifth Wave-Reversal In Trend May Not Be Far Away.The Fed will announce its latest policy decision later, and expectations are that Powell will keep rates on hold, especially after last week's slightly higher inflation print and still solid US jobs data. We can see some stabilization in the US dollar ahead of this event, but we have to keep an eye on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which coudl also play a key role in driving safe haven flows.
Meanwhile, the stock market continues to trade sideways, and I don't expect any major breakouts or strong moves ahead of the Fed. Also, tomorrow is a holiday in the US, so that could contribute to slower market conditions into the end of the week, unless, of course, the situation in the Middle East gets worse.
Looking at the DXY waves structure, I see athree-wave move from the most recent lows, so the fourth wave I highlighted a few days ago could now be approaching completion near this week’s key resistance around the 99 level. That’s definitely a level to watch for a potential fresh, but possibly final sell-off toward new lows around 97, maybe even 96.
That’s where the DXY could stabilize, as ending diagonal pattern signals that we are likely in the late stages of wave five, meaning this bearish cycle could soon come to an end.
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.48
1st Support: 98.09
1st Resistance: 99.25
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY bullish here, sell XXXUSD! Do miss this trade plsAs per my previous post on dxy, I'm looking for higher prices now. I dont know the news or war or tariff or rate cut that will push it up. I'm just reporting what I'm seeing on the charts, most times, it doesn't lie. Just when everyone was bullish back in Jan, 2025. I turned bearish, now I'm telling you that we go up slowly or range.
This means you have to sell EURUSD, GBPUSD etc
TP1 @ 98.9
TP2 @ 99.4
Enjoy
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DXY BANK VAULT BREAK-IN: Your Dollar Index Profit Blueprint🚨 DXY BANK HEIST: Dollar Index Breakout Robbery Plan (Long Setup) 🚨
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Using the 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥, we’re plotting a DXY (Dollar Index) bank heist—time to go LONG and escape near the ATR danger zone. Overbought? Yes. Risky? Absolutely. But the real robbery happens when weak hands panic. Take profits fast—you’ve earned this loot! 🏆💵
📈 ENTRY: BREAKOUT OR GET LEFT BEHIND!
Wait for DXY to cross 99.300 → Then strike hard!
Buy Stop Orders: Place above Moving Average.
Buy Limit Orders: Sneak in on 15M/30M pullbacks (swing lows/highs).
Pro Tip: Set a BREAKOUT ALARM—don’t miss the heist!
🛑 STOP LOSS: DON’T GET LOCKED UP!
For Buy Stop Orders: Never set SL before breakout—amateurs get caught!
Thief’s Safe Spot: Nearest swing low (2H chart).
Rebels: Place SL wherever… but your funeral! ⚰️
🏴☠️ TARGET: 102.300 (Bank Vault Cracked!)
Scalpers: Long only! Trail your SL like a pro thief.
Swing Traders: Ride this heist for maximum payout.
💵 MARKET CONTEXT: DXY IS BULLISH (But Traps Await!)
Fundamentals: COT Reports, Fed Plays, Geopolitics.
Intermarket Sentiment: Bonds, Gold, Stocks—all connected.
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Avoid new trades during high-impact news.
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DXY Weekly ForecastDXY Weekly Forecast
- DXY expect to be strong due to fundamental factors
- bigger structure needed before DXY to come down to 96.000 level
- look for up move this week
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USD Bears Show Big Response to Rate Cut TalkThe bearish trend in USD has run for most of this year so far, and this has happened even as many members of the Fed refrain from talking up possible rate cuts. Last week, Jerome Powell once again reiterated that he thought tariffs would produce inflation, and he seemed to dismiss the forecasts that indicated two possible rate cuts in 2025.
Another inflationary factor showed with geopolitical risk, as tensions between the U.S. and Iran threatened to impact oil prices. And given how most consumer products in the U.S. transport via trucks, that could produce vulnerability to inflation from higher oil prices.
But, so far, we've seen a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' phenomenon around that, as Iran's retaliation hasn't seemed to excite markets, with oil prices heading lower after the attack. We've also seen the bid that drove the USD after the weekly open evaporate, and the daily bar is currently showing as a bearish engulfing candlestick.
There's quite a bit of U.S. drive from the calendar for this week including speeches from Jerome Powell along with numerous other Fed members. Friday brings the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and sellers, at this point, seem to have an open door to make a run at the lows in USD. - js
Potential Bullish Scenario for DXY, target objective is 99.392Higher timeframe analysis
As discussed in last week's analysis of the DXY, the higher timeframe draw on liquidity is the bearish monthly Fair value gap set at 101.977. This warrants a higher timeframe bullish bias until this level has been achieved.
Intermediate timeframe analysis
We note the relative equal highs on the daily and 1H chart at 99.392. This serves as a intermediate timeframe draw on liquidity and target objective.
Also note that the buyside of the curve of the market maker buy model has commenced which further fuels bullish sentiment.
Scenario 1
On the 1H chart, note the relative equal lows at 98.482. These lows are expected to be ran to serve as a liquidity primer for the bullish 1H order block at 98.436 which is expected to be respected and held. This poses a rather handsome risk to reward ratio.
Scenario 2
Should price push past the invalidation point of the bullish 1H order block we could see it head to the bullish 1H order block at the initial accumulation at 98.219. The reward on this setup would make up for the loss of scenario 1.
Disclaimer
The above analysis is intended for educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice.
Dollar Index Analysis: Compression, Divergence, Breakout?Greetings to the TradingView community, here's a detailed look at DXY where technical structure and macro context may be hinting at a shift.
Dollar Index (DXY) Approaching Key Breakout | Bullish Divergence and Macro Shifts in Focus
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently approaching a structurally important juncture where technical compression is intersecting with potential macroeconomic shifts. Over the past several months, DXY has remained in a well defined downtrend, consistently printing lower highs and lower lows. However, the recent price action reveals signs of exhaustion in bearish momentum, opening the door for a potential trend reversal or a meaningful corrective rally.
Technically the index has been trading within a broad descending wedge pattern since late 2024. This structure, often interpreted as a bullish reversal formation, is now nearing its apex. Price has been hugging the upper boundary of the pattern a descending trendline that has acted as dynamic resistance and appears to be preparing for a possible breakout. Each subsequent test of this trendline has occurred with less momentum on the downside, a common precursor to a breakout when price compresses tightly within narrowing ranges.
More importantly, momentum indicators are beginning to diverge from price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14), for instance, is forming a series of higher lows while price continues to record lower lows. This bullish divergence is a classic signal that downside pressure is weakening and that buyers may be gradually absorbing supply. Divergence of this nature, especially in confluence with trendline resistance, often leads to a shift in price behavior.
A key horizontal level to monitor remains 101.75, which has historically acted as a strong resistance zone. This level marked the previous breakout rejection and coincides with the mid-range structure of the wedge. A sustained close above this zone would effectively break the prevailing lower-high formation and could signal a shift in market structure toward a more neutral or even bullish bias.
In terms of projected targets, if a breakout confirms, the logical areas to watch would be the previous swing highs from the downtrend. These include levels in the 102.50 to 104.00 range, where the market has previously paused or reversed. These prior lower highs may now act as resistance on the way up and can be used as checkpoints to gauge the strength of any bullish follow-through.
From a macroeconomic perspective, several factors could support or accelerate such a breakout. Recent U.S. inflation data has shown signs of softening, with both Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) prints coming in below expectations. This has increased market speculation that the Federal Reserve may pivot toward a more accommodative stance later in the year. Although the Fed has not confirmed any immediate easing, market expectations around rate cuts are beginning to influence bond yields and, by extension, the dollar.
However, it’s also worth noting that monetary policy divergence among global central banks remains an important theme. While the Fed may lean toward caution, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are facing their own unique inflationary challenges, which could either reinforce or limit relative dollar weakness. In such an environment, if other central banks appear more dovish than the Fed, it could provide relative strength to the dollar index.
Geopolitical uncertainty and equity market volatility are also important to consider. The dollar has historically acted as a safe-haven asset in times of global distress. If geopolitical tensions escalate or global risk sentiment weakens, capital flows into the dollar may accelerate regardless of interest rate trajectories.
In conclusion, the current DXY setup is a technically rich and macro-sensitive zone where price compression, bullish RSI divergence, and policy shifts are aligning. While confirmation is still needed, particularly via a breakout above the descending trendline and the 101.75 level, the probability of a structural shift is increasing. This setup is not a trading recommendation but rather an important chart to watch for clues about future dollar direction and its cascading impact on global FX pairs, commodities, and broader market sentiment.
Thanks for reading hope you like this publication.
Regards- Amit.
DXY OUTLOOK - SWING SETUPThe dollar has been on a six-month decline, but I anticipate a recovery. This is primarily due to the current economic climate, geopolitical landscape, and the dollar's traditional role as a safe-haven currency during periods of significant uncertainty
"May fortune attend thee, and thy trade prosper." .......L2Earned
Falling expected of $$ Index.📉 DXY Analysis – June 22, 2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing clear signs of rejection from the Daily Time Frame Swing Supply Zone around 99.000. A confirmed Head & Shoulders pattern on the H1 chart suggests a short-term bearish reversal. Price action remains under the 100 EMA on the 4H, and the market continues to respect the descending trendline.
Technical Outlook:
🔻 Target 1: 98.000
🔻 Target 2: 94.650 (Major support zone)
📈 RSI divergence confirms downside pressure.
🧭 Fundamental View:
Fed Pivot on the Horizon: Softer inflation and weakening U.S. macro data (e.g. unemployment ticking up, sluggish GDP) increase the probability of a rate cut by Q3 2025.
Risk-On Sentiment Returning: Global risk appetite is improving, pulling capital away from safe-haven USD assets.
Geopolitical Tensions (US–Iran–Israel): Ongoing Middle East conflict is driving temporary spikes in DXY due to safe-haven demand, but if escalation slows or a ceasefire is reached, this could accelerate downside moves in the dollar.
Oil Impact: Rising oil prices due to conflict could hurt the U.S. economy further, worsening the Fed’s policy dilemma and adding pressure on the dollar.
Bias: Bearish
❌ Invalidation above 99.200
🔎 Events to Watch: Fed speeches, PCE inflation, geopolitical developments in the Middle East
#DXY #Forex #USD #Geopolitics #USIranIsrael #HeadAndShoulders #Fed #MacroAnalysis #Tradewithnajamahmed #TechnicalAnalysis #DollarIndex
Short Term USD Strength This Week! Sell The Majors?This is the FOREX futures outlook for the week of Jun 8 - 12th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF, and JPY.
USD gained some strength on Friday's job data. Talks with China this week may add to it. But I believe the bullishness will be short term.
Look for valid sells in EUR and GBP. Be cautious with AUD and NZD. CAD and CHF will also offer opportunities to sells.
CPI Data due Wed, making that day and the days that follow potentially the best trading days this week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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DOLLAR INDEXThe relationship between the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the 10-year US Treasury yield is generally positive but has shown signs of weakening and occasional breakdowns recently.
Key Points:
Typical Positive Correlation:
Historically, when the 10-year Treasury yield rises, the dollar tends to strengthen, and when yields fall, the dollar weakens. This is because higher yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns, increasing demand for the dollar. Conversely, lower yields reduce dollar appeal.
Mechanism:
The 10-year yield reflects investor expectations about inflation, economic growth, and Federal Reserve policy. Higher yields often signal stronger growth or inflation, supporting a stronger dollar due to higher real returns on US assets.
Recent Weakening of Correlation:
Since early 2025, this positive correlation has weakened significantly. Despite rising 10-year yields (around 4.4% to 4.5%), the DXY has hovered near the 98–99 range and even declined over 10% year-to-date. This divergence is attributed to:
Investors re-evaluating the dollar’s reserve currency status and shifting capital to other markets (e.g., European equities).
Outflows from US assets amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Asynchronous monetary policy cycles globally, with some central banks hiking or cutting rates at different paces than the Fed.
Market Sentiment and Safe-Haven Flows:
In times of stress, the dollar’s traditional role as a safe haven can be challenged, further complicating the yield-dollar relationship.
Conclusion
While the 10-year Treasury yield and the US dollar index usually move together, recent market dynamics have disrupted this pattern. Rising yields have not translated into a stronger dollar in 2025, reflecting broader shifts in investor sentiment, geopolitical risks, and global monetary policy divergence.
Bearish reversal?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 98.89
1st Support: 98.29
1st Resistance: 99.60
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.