BUY DXYIn todays session we are monitoring DXY for a strong buy. Our entry is at 101.033 targtes are 101.900 and stops below 100.679. Use proper risk management.
DX.F trade ideas
Dollar Index
DXY chart hopefully create bearish butterfly pattern.so market need to seem BUY correction 101.320 and 101.500 resistance zone. if Then market break down 101.690 support level, then this case is invalid.
AronnoFX will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of
reliance on the information contained within this channel including
data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals.
If you like this idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion, please feel free command me.
Potential moves for DXYDXY is showing bullish sign on the 1h TF , retesting an important 4h key level.
Alternatively it could respect its bearish flag channel and then continues its downtrend.
Let's see what today brings
These are my views , not financial advice.
Daily Technical Analysis of Gold,Currencies,and Indices29/8/2024Daily Technical Analysis for Gold, Currencies, and Indices - 29/8/2024
Introduction
Welcome, I am Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert. Today, I will provide you with an in-depth analysis of the key currency pairs, commodities, and financial indices. On this Thursday, August 29, 2024, a series of significant economic data releases are expected to impact price movements. These releases include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the European Union and Germany, GDP figures, unemployment rate data for the United States, and the Federal Reserve’s weekly balance sheet report. The impact of these data on financial and investment markets will be analyzed in this report.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) shows attempts at correction ahead of the critical economic data releases in the United States, such as GDP and unemployment rates. However, overall, the index continues to trade within a bearish scenario, inside a major downward channel, and below both primary and secondary descending trend lines. Prices remain below the 102 level and the 55-day moving average, reinforcing negative expectations. The index will not be able to resume its upward trend unless these levels are breached in conjunction with positive economic data that exceed expectations.
EUR/USD Analysis
The EUR/USD pair shows downward corrections after failing to break above the 1.1000 level and the 55-day moving average. These downward corrections are expected to continue until the pair successfully surpasses the 1.1000 level, which could lead to further declines. The positive trend will only resume if the 1.1000 level is breached.
GBP/USD Analysis
The GBP/USD pair exhibits downward corrections after failing to surpass the 1.32 level and the 50-day moving average. With the upcoming release of significant economic data in the United States, the pair is expected to continue these downward corrections as long as it remains above the 1.50 level.
USD/JPY Analysis
The USD/JPY pair continues to hover around the 145-yen level against the U.S. dollar. If this level is breached, it could create buying opportunities, with potential rises targeting the 149-yen level. The 145-yen level serves as a strong pivot area, supported by the 55-day moving average and the primary descending trend line, making it a resistance area that must be approached with caution.
USD/CHF Analysis
The USD/CHF pair remains under pressure, with prices staying below the 0.8500 and 0.9400 levels. These levels should be closely monitored to determine the future direction.
AUD/USD Analysis
The AUD/USD pair saw stable prices at the 0.6800 level. Even with potential corrections, the pair might retest the 0.6670 level. Traders should watch the movements closely to confirm the trend’s continuity.
NZD/USD Analysis
The NZD/USD pair is testing a critical level at 0.6250. If this level is broken, the pair could drop to the 1.0000 level. To maintain a positive trend, traders should ensure that prices stay above the 0.6250 level.
USD/CAD Analysis
The USD/CAD pair faces ongoing pressure with attempts to reduce losses and enter a corrective upward wave. This movement will not be considered positive unless the 1.34500 level is broken, potentially leading to a resumption of the downtrend towards the 1.33 level.
GBP/JPY Analysis
The GBP/JPY pair trades around the previous session’s closing level for the third consecutive session, with prices remaining below 196 yen per British pound. The bearish trend remains dominant, targeting the 184 yen level.
EUR/JPY Analysis
The EUR/JPY pair continues to favor a bearish scenario, targeting the 158 yen level as long as it remains below 164 yen.
EUR/GBP Analysis
The EUR/GBP pair continues to trade under downward pressure. Staying below the 0.84500 level indicates the possibility of further declines, targeting levels of 0.83150 and 0.82500.
USD/TRY Analysis
The USD/TRY pair continues to trade strongly above the 34 lira per U.S. dollar level, suggesting the potential for continued upward movement towards 34.50 and 35 lira.
Bitcoin/USD Analysis
Bitcoin against the U.S. dollar shows a decline below the 60,000 USD level and also below 56,000 USD, which is the 55-day moving average. This situation could lead to a corrective downward wave targeting the 52,000 USD level, and possibly 44,000 USD in the medium term. A return of buying momentum above the 56,000 USD level could support a recovery in Bitcoin prices.
Ethereum/USD Analysis
Ethereum against the U.S. dollar remains under pressure, with prices below 2,800 USD, indicating the potential for further declines towards 2,200 and 1,600 USD in the medium term.
Ripple/USD Analysis
The Ripple against the U.S. dollar is approaching a critical support area at 55 cents. If this support is broken in the upcoming trading sessions, the pair may experience further declines.
Gold Analysis
Gold is experiencing corrections due to the impact of the U.S. Dollar Index, resulting in a pullback in gold prices. However, gold remains above the 2460 USD level, considered a healthy correction. If the 2520 USD level is fully breached, we may see a rise towards 2600 and 2700 USD in the medium term. If the 2460 USD level is broken, this positive scenario will be invalidated.
Oil Analysis
Crude oil continues to trade under pressure with prices below the 77 USD per barrel level, indicating a bearish scenario. Following a negative U.S. oil inventory report, future crude oil prices are expected to be negatively affected. This bearish scenario will only be invalidated if buying momentum returns above the 77 USD per barrel level.
Silver Analysis
Silver has successfully reached the 29 USD level, but there is a likelihood that these gains may be erased if prices drop to the 27.5 USD level or lower.
Natural Gas Analysis
Natural gas attempts to erase previous losses after opening with an upward gap. Remaining below the 2.2 USD level suggests a potential drop that may target the 1.8 USD level in the short term.
Dow Jones Index Analysis
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is nearing a critical level at 41,000 points. Breaking this level may lead to a bearish wave targeting 40,000 points. The bullish rebound depends on holding above the 41,000-point level.
S&P 500 Index Analysis
The S&P 500 index continues to trade under the corrective bearish wave. Staying below the 5,700-point level strengthens the likelihood of entering a downward correction, targeting the 5,500-point level or lower.
Nasdaq 100 Index Analysis
The Nasdaq 100 index faces the risk of a decline if it breaks the support level at 19,250 points. The index must maintain a rebound above this level to avoid the bearish scenario.
Russell 2000 Index Analysis
The Russell 2000 index declines after failing to break through the resistance level at 2,225 points. Breaking this level may result in a decline to the 2,040-point level.
FTSE Index Analysis
The FTSE index continues to decline with resistance at the 8,400-point level. Breaking this level may lead to a drop towards the 8,200-point level. A return of buying momentum above the 8,400-point level may cancel the bearish scenario.
DAX Index Analysis
The DAX index is expected to continue rising in the medium term, targeting levels of 20,000 and 19,250 points. If the index falls below the 18,750-point level, previous gains may be erased, heading towards the 18,200-point level.
CAC Index Analysis
The CAC index may decline if it fails to break above the 7,600-point level, leading to a bearish wave targeting the 7,200-point level.
Nikkei Index Analysis
The Nikkei index targets the 44,250-point level in a positive scenario. Breaking below the 37,000-point level may cancel this positive scenario.
With this, we have completed today’s technical analysis. Thank you for following along, and we wish you successful trading.
This analysis was prepared by Muhammad Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert, based on current data and market trends. Please note that all strategies and analyses are subject to market changes, and it is advised to keep track of economic updates to make informed decisions.
DXY: Resistance at 101 Broken, New Support Level?DXY showed impressive strength today, rallying and breaking through a key resistance level which is now holding as support.
This price action suggests that the bulls are in control. This setup offers a solid opportunity to capitalize on continued upward momentum via USDJPY .
Today's economic data out of the U.S. provided a mixed picture, with key indicators pointing to both resilience and caution in the market:
S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 (MoM) (Jun):
Actual: 0.6%
Previous: 1.0%
The month-over-month growth in housing prices slowed, indicating a cooling off in the housing market compared to the previous month. This could reflect tightening financial conditions or a natural correction after a period of rapid price increases.
S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 (YoY) (Jun):
Actual: 6.5%
Forecast: 6.2%
Previous: 6.9%
Year-over-year, housing prices still showed robust growth, though slightly down from the previous month. The housing market remains strong, but the pace of growth may be tapering as higher interest rates and affordability concerns weigh in.
CB Consumer Confidence (Aug):
Actual: 103.3
Forecast: 101.9
Previous: 100.9
Consumer confidence ticked higher, beating expectations and showing that consumers are feeling more optimistic about the economy. This could support consumer spending in the coming months, a positive sign for the broader economy.
2-Year Note Auction:
Yield: 4.434%
The auction results showed a notable increase in the yield compared to the previous auction. Higher yields reflect the market's expectation of continued monetary tightening, which could put upward pressure on short-term interest rates.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock:
Actual: -3.400M
Forecast: -3.000M
Previous: 0.347M
Crude oil inventories dropped more than expected, suggesting tighter supply conditions. This could lead to upward pressure on oil prices, especially if demand remains strong.
This data provides a nuanced view of the U.S. economy, with housing showing signs of slowing, consumer confidence on the rise, and higher yields reflecting expectations for continued rate hikes. The decline in crude oil stocks could also play into inflation dynamics, particularly in energy prices.
DXY Strength To Continue? Trade Plans/AnalysisRecent falls to previously hit areas of key support have arisen on continuous Fed easing rhetoric (soft landing).
Any strength likely will come as a 'Risk Off' reaction and concern. Likely, earnings misses or misses in macro data will be the cause, although they could spur further risk on.
Awaiting moves, areas for note labelled.
Double Bottom may signify a trend change for DXY.. Potentially.Here is a double bottom pattern which has formed at a major support area on the Daily chart (Support is from the low of 28th Dec 23).
It's formation is occurring after a 5.3% decline, which began on the 26th June 24.
The neckline has been broken, and retested, with price showing strength in that area through evidence of buying pressure (engulfing candle on the daily), and three bullish candles from the hourly neckline where the pattern is forming.
This pattern is suggested to have a 78.55% success rate when correct conditions are met.
Let's see how this plays out.
DXY Wave 4: Up then downBased on my updated EW counts, I see that minor wave 3 has ended and now we should be on the move up for minor wave 4. This could be a consolidation phase and thus I do not advocate going long. I will advise waiting to go short or scaling in a short position. Nevertheless, I have put in a potential short entry price (red line).
DXY Will Grow! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 101.111.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 101.409 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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DXY at resistance Intraday Update: The DXY is back at the 101.00 level as the divergent intraday RSI has worked itself back to neutral. Expect some sellers near this previous support and further at 101.50.
Dollar Index Breakdown - Is the Decline Set to Continue? 🤔📉 Dollar Index Breakdown - Is the Decline Set to Continue? 🧐💵
Hey traders, it's time to revisit the Dollar Index (DXY)! We've had some fantastic trading opportunities in the past, especially with the short on USD/JPY, and now, things are getting even more interesting.
Despite the Federal Reserve holding off on rate cuts for now, the anticipation is building. Rate cuts seem to be on the horizon, which could have significant implications for the dollar's strength. But as always, I follow the charts, and they’re signaling something big.
🔍 Key Insights:
The 100.97 level is shaping up as new resistance for the DXY.
We could see a drop below the 100 mark, with a target range between 94.63 and 92.9.
Global factors, such as the BRICS nations' efforts to reduce dependence on the dollar, along with geopolitical and economic developments, are adding to the bearish sentiment.
With less than a 15% chance of intervention in the coming months, I’m eyeing another short on the dollar.
Stay tuned, as I’ll be covering EUR/USD and USD/JPY in my next posts. Don’t forget to check out Bitcoin—it’s shaping up to be the most intriguing asset on the market right now!
Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Levels discussed on Livestream 28th August 28th August
DXY: Trading along 100.80, could trade lower to 100.55. If support level not broken, could range between 100.55 and 100.90
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6290 SL 20 T 70
AUDUSD: Looking for a break of resistance, Buy 0.6810 SL 20 TP 40
GBPUSD: Could trade up to 1.33, look for reaction at the strong resistance level.
EURUSD: Could range between 1.1160 and 1.12
USDJPY: Sell 144.25 SL 30 TP 75
USDCHF: Sell 0.8420 SL 30 TP 70
USDCAD: Sell 1.3445 SL 25 TP 80 (Hesitation at 1.34)
Gold: Above 2512 could trade up to 2525
US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Waiting For BreakoutIt looks like ⚠Dollar index is preparing for a bullish movement.
Analyzing the 4H time frame, I spotted a falling Parallel channel
and a confrimed breakout of its upper boundary.
The last obstacle for the buyers is the 100.95 - 100.85 neckline of a double bottom pattern.
If bulls break and close above that, it will be an important bullish clue.
A bullish continuation will follow then at least to 101.40
Possibility of uptrend It is expected that we will see the beginning of the upward trend and advance to the specified resistance levels.
Otherwise, a corrective trend will be possible up to the indicated support levels
Will EU CPI support a quick rebound of DXY?Macro theme:
- The dollar hovered near its lowest in over a year but downside momentum is fading as markets have already priced in Sep easing.
- A short-term rebound is possible if the EU CPI continues its downward trend this week.
Technical theme:
- DXY formed a small double-bottom pattern around 100.50 in the 4-hour chart and bounced up to retest its neckline, which is confluence with EMA21, indicating a potential trend shift.
- If DXY closes above its neckline around 100.90, the index may retrace further to retest the previous swing high around 101.60.
- Conversely, DXY may retest the bottoms again if it closes below 100.80.
DXY Weekly analysis 24-Aug-2024Dxy is in the ascending channel in the monthly time frame
Also, at the moment, it is almost close to the bottom of the channel
As various indicators show oversold, I expect the price to bounce back from the area shown on the chart.
Otherwise, with the channel floor breaking, I expect the price to drop to the specified range
But even if the price continues to decline, we should see a pullback in this area
*Be profitable
Thank you for expressing your opinion with likes and comments
Analysis of the Dollar Index (DXY)Overview: On Tuesday, the Dollar Index (DXY) showed weak performance, failing to consolidate the partial recovery seen on Monday after last week's sharp decline. Although the dollar posted gains against major Asian currencies, such as the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Korean Won (KRW), these gains were quickly erased during the US trading session. The return of a "risk-on" sentiment in the markets, with stock indices rising in Asia, Europe, and US futures, has led investors to move away from safe-haven assets, further weighing on the dollar.
Fundamental Factors:
Market Sentiment: The return of the "risk-on" sentiment has favored riskier assets at the expense of the US dollar. The easing of tensions in the Middle East has helped reduce flows into safe-haven assets, exerting bearish pressure on the DXY.
Economic Data: On Tuesday, attention will be focused on the weekly mortgage applications data published by the MBA and the EIA's report on US crude oil inventories. Additionally, the speech by Federal Reserve's Waller could provide further insight into the direction of US monetary policy.
Currency Performance: The EUR/USD has resumed its bullish trend, partially erasing the weakness seen at the start of the week. The British pound (GBP/USD) reached over two-year highs, supported by expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will not cut rates as much as the markets anticipated.
Commodities and Precious Metals: WTI saw a sharp decline, breaking a three-day winning streak due to renewed demand concerns and some profit-taking. Gold prices alternated between gains and losses above the $2,500 per ounce mark, while silver prices remained near the $30.00 per ounce level.
Daily Technical Analysis of Gold,Currencies,and Indices28/8/2024Daily Technical Analysis of Gold,Currencies,and Indices 28/8/2024
Introduction
Welcome, I am Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert. Today, August 28, 2024. At the start of the analysis, highlights the importance of the anticipated economic data today, such as the U.S. crude oil inventory report expected to be released at 5:30 PM Mecca time, which is expected to significantly impact price movements. The technical and economic analysis then begins with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).
Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):
The U.S. Dollar Index continues to trade under pressure, with prices remaining below the 102 level, the downward trend line, and the 55-day moving average. These factors indicate a potential continuation of selling pressure, and the dollar may only regain strength if it breaks above the 1.300 level.
Analysis of EUR/USD:
The EUR/USD pair failed to break above the 1.122000 level, suggesting the possibility of a downward correction before resuming its upward trend towards the 1.13500 and 1.1000 levels. If the pair fails to break through 1.122000, we might see a decline towards 1.111000 or even 1.10000.
Analysis of GBP/USD:
The GBP/USD pair faces strong resistance at the 1.32500 level. If it fails to break through this level, we might see a downward correction towards 1.31000. To exit the bearish trend, buying positions need to return above 1.32500.
Analysis of USD/JPY:
The USD/JPY pair remains under selling pressure, with prices staying below the 145 yen level. If prices continue to stay below this level, the likelihood of a decline towards 140 yen increases, and the bearish scenario will only be canceled if the price breaks above 145 yen.
Analysis of USD/CHF:
The USD/CHF pair is trading under selling pressure, with the potential for continued weakness towards the 0.837 and 0.824 levels if prices remain below 0.85 and 100 pips.
Analysis of AUD/USD:
The AUD/USD pair maintains a bullish trend, with expectations for further upside towards the 0.69 level, provided it breaks through the 0.68 level. The bullish scenario will be negated if the pair breaks below 0.667.
Analysis of NZD/USD:
The NZD/USD pair is attempting an upward correction and will only regain bullish momentum if it breaks above the 0.62250 level.
Analysis of USD/CAD:
The USD/CAD pair continues to weaken, with the potential for further declines if prices remain below the 1.36 level.
Analysis of GBP/JPY:
The GBP/JPY pair is recovering and creating new buying positions, with expectations of a rise towards the 196 yen level if this level is broken.
Analysis of EUR/JPY:
The EUR/JPY pair remains under pressure, with expectations of further declines towards the 158 yen and 153 yen levels if prices stay below 164 yen.
Analysis of EUR/GBP:
Breaking below the 0.84500 level indicates the possibility of a bearish wave targeting the 0.83750 and 0.83000 levels.
Analysis of USD/TRY:
The USD/TRY pair maintains its upward trend, with the potential to reach 44.5 lira per dollar if the upward momentum continues.
Bitcoin Analysis:
Bitcoin continues to trade above the $60,000 level, with the potential for further gains towards $72,000 and $82,000 if the $66,000 level is broken.
Ethereum Analysis:
Ethereum faces resistance at the $2800 level, and no further upward movement will be seen unless this level is broken.
Ripple Analysis:
Ripple maintains an upward trend as long as prices stay above 55 cents, with a target of 65 cents.
Gold Analysis:
Gold maintains its upward trend thanks to trading above the support level of $2460, supported by economic and geopolitical data. Breaking the resistance level at $2520 will lead to the creation of new buying opportunities and a strong upward wave.
Oil Analysis:
If oil manages to break above the $77 level, we may see an increase towards the $80 and $83 per barrel levels.
Silver Analysis:
Silver remains stable above the $29 level, with the potential for further gains if it surpasses $30.5.
Natural Gas Analysis:
Natural gas is under selling pressure, with the potential for declines to the $1.8 and $1.4 levels if prices stay below $2.20.
Dow Jones Analysis:
The Dow Jones index maintains its positive trend, targeting the 42,500 level.
S&P 500 Analysis:
The S&P 500 index is attempting a downward correction, with expectations for further declines if it remains below the 5700 level.
Nasdaq 100 Analysis:
The Nasdaq 100 index faces the possibility of a downward correction wave if it breaks the support level at 19250 points.
Russell 2000 Analysis:
The Russell 2000 index is trying to return to the 2225 level, with the potential for further declines if it fails to break above this level.
FTSE Analysis:
The FTSE index maintains its positive trend, targeting the 8400 level.
DAX Analysis:
The DAX index needs to break above the 18750 level to confirm the upward trend.
CAC Analysis:
The CAC index is trying to maintain its positive trend with prices stable above the 7577 level.
Nikkei Analysis:
The Nikkei index maintains its positive trend, targeting the 42450 level if it remains above the 55-day moving average.
DXY (long)Turtle soup Trading Strategy
The Turtle Soup strategy, however, flips the script, aiming to profit when those anticipated trend.Linda Raschke’s Turtle Soup strategy is a counter-trend trading approach that capitalizes on failed breakouts.
It takes inspiration from the famous Turtles trading experiment, where novices were trained on a trend-following system.
How much further can the Big Dollar Drop?Following Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the USD index, the DXY, is trading at 100.55, on track for its largest monthly fall in 21 months.
The narrative is that the Fed's sole focus on the labour market and zero tolerance for any further increases in the U/R has reactivated the Fed Put, which presents a significant headwind for the USD.
Zooming out to the monthly chart it can be viewed that the DXY completed a multi year five wave advance at the 114.77 high from Sep 22.
A sustained break of critical medium-term support at 99.50 would open up a move lower towards 92.00, about 8 ½ % below where it is trading now as it traces out the third leg (Wave C) of a three wave correction.
Sell the DXY Gap Up!DXY chart is about to turn back on in the next few minutes here - new daily candle about to print - looking for a gap up into resistance to short
Rebound and reversal DXY. H4 27.08.2024Rebound and reversal DXY
The dollar index is moving according to the previous analysis
but it may still go lower with a false takeout and then a reversal
to a deep correction will start.
The area of 100.60-100.50 is still an important strategic support
but no one cancelled false bounces.
I expect a correction in autumn around 102 and will further refine.
