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NAS100 trade ideas

NASDAQ 100 Short continuation or Start of next Bull Leg? 1. Top-Down Bias • Weekly (Long-Term) • Bias: Still in a primary uptrend (higher highs & higher lows, trading above key SMAs and the Ichimoku Cloud). • Current Pressure: Latest weekly candle shows a sharp pullback; momentum indicators (MACD, RSI) are rolling over from positive territory. • Daily (Intermediate) • Bias: Turned short-term bearish (clearly below daily Ichimoku Cloud, 10/50/100-day SMAs; lower highs & lower lows formed). • Key Pivot: 200-day SMA (~20,272). A sustained break below strengthens the intermediate downtrend; a defense of this level may spark a bounce. • 4H & 2H (Short-Term & Intraday) • Bias: Both are firmly bearish with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, supported by high ADX and negative momentum readings. • Oversold Conditions: RSI and Stochastics are near oversold on lower timeframes, hinting at possible short-term bounces within a broader downtrend. Net Takeaway: • Long-term (Weekly) remains bullish. • Intermediate to short-term (Daily/4H/2H) is currently bearish. • Expect potential downward continuation unless the market reclaims key daily/4H resistance levels (around 21,000–21,200). 2. Key Levels & Confluences 1. Support Zones • Weekly/Daily Major Support: • 20,300–19,800 region: Aligns with the 200-day SMA (~20,272), 50% Fibonacci (~19,800), and previous bullish order blocks. • 19,500–19,200 area: Next layer of institutional demand if the 20k handle fails. • Deeper Weekly Support: 17,600–16,000 (if the sell-off becomes more pronounced). 2. Resistance Zones • Daily/4H Supply & Bearish Order Blocks: • 21,000–21,200: Confluence of broken support-turned-resistance, daily Ichimoku Cloud lower boundary, multiple SMAs overhead. • 22,000–22,200: Higher-timeframe supply zone where previous rallies failed. 3. Fibonacci Confluence • From the Weekly Swing (~17,378 low to ~22,206 high): • 38.2% (~20,362) near current price. • 50% (~19,796) is a critical deeper support. • Daily Extensions: If below 20,272, watch potential extension toward 1.618 (~19,475). 4. Trend Lines / Channels • Ascending Weekly Channel: Still intact overall, but price is testing lower bounds. • Broken Daily/4H Channel: Price has slipped beneath shorter-term ascending channels, reinforcing the current correction. 3. Scenario 1 (Bullish Continuation / Bounce) Despite the short-term downtrend, there is a chance that the weekly uptrend reasserts itself if price stabilizes above major support (particularly near the 200-day SMA or 19,800–20,300). Here’s how different risk appetites might approach a bullish scenario: 3.1 Narrative • Why Bullish? The weekly structure remains intact, and momentum oscillators (RSI, Stochastics) on lower timeframes are oversold. If price holds the 200-day SMA (~20,272) or the broader 19,800–20,300 demand zone, a relief rally could ensue—potentially aligning back with the higher-timeframe uptrend. 3.2 Aggressive / High-Risk Bullish Approach 1. Where/When to Enter • Look for early signals on 2H/4H near 20,300–20,500 (if tested and shows a bullish engulfing or strong volume spike). • Could also enter on a quick intraday bounce off 20,200–20,300 (if price wicks into that zone). 2. Stop-Loss Placement • Tight stop just below the most recent intraday swing low (e.g., below 20,200 or 20,100), giving minimal room for volatility. 3. Confirmation Level • Minimal confirmation: Possibly only a bullish candlestick pattern or a short-term RSI cross back above 30–35 (showing a slight momentum shift). 4. Pros & Cons • Pros: Best potential reward if you catch the exact turning point. • Cons: Higher chance of false break or whipsaw if price continues downward. 5. Target Levels & Profit Objectives • T1: ~20,900–21,000 (overhead Fib confluence + broken support). • T2: ~21,600–21,700 (daily middle Bollinger Band / cluster of SMAs). • Partial take-profit at T1; consider moving stop to break-even and aiming for T2 if momentum continues. 6. Invalidation • A decisive 4H close below 20,000 or the 200-day SMA being lost on a daily close with no immediate rebound. 3.3 Moderate-Risk Bullish Approach 1. Entry Conditions • Wait for a 4H candle close above a minor resistance or pivot (e.g., reclaiming 20,700–20,800). • Look for a bullish MACD cross or RSI returning above 40–45 on the 4H. 2. Stop-Loss Placement • Slightly below the newly formed higher low (once price confirms an upward pivot)—for instance, below ~20,400 if that level becomes an intraday support again. 3. Pros & Cons • Pros: Reduces the likelihood of entering on a dead-cat bounce. • Cons: Potentially misses the lowest entry if price rebounds sharply from 20,300. 4. Target Levels & Profit Objectives • T1: ~21,000–21,200 (near daily Ichimoku bottom/cloud edge). • T2: ~21,700–22,000 (upper daily Bollinger / major daily supply). • Scale out at T1 or tighten stop-loss; let the rest run if momentum persists. 5. Invalidation • A return below the 4H pivot or a break under ~20,300 after you’ve entered. 3.4 Conservative / Low-Risk Bullish Approach 1. Entry Conditions • Require a Daily close back above key resistance or the Ichimoku Cloud bottom (~21,200). • Multiple indicators aligned bullishly: RSI > 50 on 4H/Daily, MACD crossing positive, etc. 2. Stop-Loss Placement • Below the reclaimed pivot on the daily timeframe—e.g., below ~20,700–20,800 region—or beneath the 200-day SMA if you want an even wider stop. 3. Pros & Cons • Pros: Higher probability that the correction has ended. Fewer false signals. • Cons: Entering significantly higher reduces your initial risk/reward ratio. 4. Target Levels & Profit Objectives • T1: ~21,700–22,000. • T2: Retest of the most recent swing high around 22,200–22,400. • Could move stop to break-even after T1. 5. Invalidation • A Daily close back below ~20,700 or failing to hold the 200-day SMA on subsequent retests. 4. Scenario 2 (Bearish Reversal / Deeper Correction) Should the short-term downtrend continue, or if weekly support fails near 20k, the path of least resistance is lower. Below are approaches for different risk appetites. 4.1 Narrative • Why Bearish? Daily/4H/2H structure is decidedly bearish. If the 200-day SMA (~20,272) and nearby support (20,000–20,300) give way or fail to spark a sustained bounce, price could accelerate downward toward 19,800–19,500 or even lower. 4.2 Aggressive / High-Risk Bearish Approach 1. Entry Conditions • Short on minor bounces/retests of intraday resistance (e.g., 20,700–20,800) with minimal confirmation. • Possibly enter when 2H/4H candles show a quick rejection of the descending trend line or when RSI ticks back up to ~40 but fails to break higher. 2. Stop-Loss Placement • Tight stop just above the local swing high (e.g., above 20,900 or a short-term pivot). 3. Pros & Cons • Pros: Potentially large reward if price continues to drop swiftly. • Cons: Higher false-break risk if a sudden short-covering rally occurs. 4. Target Levels & Profit Objectives • T1: ~20,000–19,800 (major daily support, near 200-day SMA or Fib zone). • T2: ~19,500 or even 19,200 if momentum accelerates. • Consider partial profit at T1; let the remainder ride if the breakdown continues. 5. Invalidation • A sustained 4H close above 20,900–21,000 indicates short-term momentum shifting against you. 4.3 Moderate-Risk Bearish Approach 1. Entry Conditions • Wait for a 4H candle close below 20,400 or 20,300, confirming a new leg down. • Check that RSI remains < 50, MACD is negative, and no immediate bullish divergence. 2. Stop-Loss Placement • Above the retest zone near the breakdown point (~20,400–20,500), giving some room for volatility spikes. 3. Pros & Cons • Pros: Avoids jumping in on whipsaws; the downtrend is confirmed by a fresh breakdown. • Cons: May miss a portion of the initial move if price collapses quickly through 20,300. 4. Target Levels & Profit Objectives • T1: 19,800–19,500 range. • T2: 19,200 or lower, depending on volume flow and broader daily momentum. • Move stops to break-even after T1 if momentum continues. 5. Invalidation • A 4H close back above the breakdown level (~20,400–20,500) or a bullish crossover in MACD that breaks the downward structure. 4.4 Conservative / Low-Risk Bearish Approach 1. Entry Conditions • Wait for a Daily close below the 200-day SMA (~20,272) and/or sub-20k, plus a retest of that broken support that fails. • Indicators (RSI < 50, MACD negative) across Daily and 4H confirm sustained bearish control. 2. Stop-Loss Placement • Above the well-defined structural daily high (e.g., near 20,700–20,800) or above any retest zone. 3. Pros & Cons • Pros: High probability the trend is continuing downward without a sudden reversal. • Cons: You may enter significantly lower, reducing R:R if the biggest chunk of the move has already happened. 4. Target Levels & Profit Objectives • T1: ~19,500–19,200. • T2: If the weekly structure fully shifts, possibly mid- to upper-18k or even 17k in extreme scenarios. • Consider partial TP at T1, trailing the remainder for further downside. 5. Invalidation • A Daily close back above 20,400–20,500 or the 200-day SMA, negating the breakdown. 5. Risk Management & Position Sizing Guidelines 1. Volatility Awareness (ATR) • 4H ATR (~180) and Daily ATR (~379) indicate elevated volatility. If you choose tighter stops, consider reducing position size accordingly. • Alternatively, widen stops to accommodate swings, but reduce overall leverage to keep risk consistent (e.g., risk 1–2% of account). 2. Reward-to-Risk Ratios • Aim for at least 1:2 or better. • If uncertain about the next directional move, trade smaller or wait for confirmation. 3. Timeframe Alignment • When the Weekly and Daily align (bullish or bearish), you can consider a larger position size. • Currently, Weekly is bullish while Daily is bearish, so either trade smaller or adopt intraday strategies until clarity emerges. 4. Partial Profit Strategies • Scale out at T1 (first target) and trail your stop to break-even or near the entry. • Let the remainder run to T2 if momentum continues in your favor. 6. Extra Notes / Contradictions • Weekly vs. Intraday Mismatch: • The long-term chart is still bullish, yet daily/intraday charts are in a firm downtrend. Some traders may opt to only short intraday rallies until price reclaims key daily levels that align with the weekly uptrend. • News & Macro Catalysts: • Any significant economic releases or global risk events could abruptly shift technical setups. Be mindful of volatility spikes. • Ranging vs. Trending: • If the market churns sideways near 20,300–20,700, you might see multiple false breaks. Use higher-timeframe closes for clarity or reduce trade size if in doubt. 7. Final Summary 1. Top-Down Bias • Weekly: Bullish overall but momentum is fading. • Daily & Below: Bearish structure, with oversold indicators that might spark a short-term bounce. 2. Key Levels & Confluences • Support: 20,300–20,000 (incl. 200-day SMA), then 19,800–19,500. • Resistance: 20,700–21,000 for intraday bounces; 21,200–22,000 from daily order blocks. 3. Scenario 1 (Bullish): • Aggressive: Enter near 20,300–20,400 with minimal confirmation. Tight stops just below 20,200. • Moderate: Wait for a 4H close above 20,700–20,800. Stop below the higher low. • Conservative: A daily close above ~21,200 plus aligned indicators. Stop below the reclaimed pivot. 4. Scenario 2 (Bearish): • Aggressive: Short near 20,700–20,800 intraday bounces. Tight stop above swing high. • Moderate: Wait for a 4H close below 20,300–20,400. Stop above the retest zone. • Conservative: A daily close below the 200-day SMA and a failed retest. Stop above a daily pivot. 5. Risk Management: • Control position size based on ATR; keep R:R ≥ 1:2; consider scaling out at T1 and protecting capital. 6. Extra Notes / Contradictions: • A short-term bounce can occur at any time due to oversold indicators. Weekly remains structurally bullish, so watch for strong buying interest near 20k or 19.8k. Bottom line: The market is in a higher-timeframe uptrend but an active short-term correction. Traders can play a potential bounce off key support (Bullish Scenario) or join the short-term downtrend on rallies/fresh breakdowns (Bearish Scenario). As always, maintain disciplined stop-losses, manage position size relative to volatility, and let the market confirm your directional bias before committing significant capital. Disclaimer: This framework focuses on potential probabilities and technical triggers. No outcome is guaranteed; always adjust trade size and stops according to personal risk tolerance.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by EliteMarketAnalysis
A healthy retrace1- What a day yesterday! The bloodbath is not completed yet! Today is the end of D/W/M and it will be another huge red candle; another 800-900 points to the downside! 2- I was wrong about a retrace up; NVDA results were not sufficient to attract buyers. Market is pricing in the slowing down of US economy with a real risk of recession; all macro-data were bad recently. 3- This was fueled by US Tariffs. 4- Core PCE data came inline but higher than the previous reading. On the other hand, Trump mentioned the tax cuts which is very good for equities. Hence, this sell-off is not so bad; it's very healthy for the next move up. I will come back to this point during the Monthly/Weekly Analysis.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by OTM-Fadhl
Is NASDAQ Losing Steam? A Reality Check for TradersHey Realistic Traders, Is CAPITALCOM:US100 Out of Steam? Let’s Dive Into the Analysis… On the daily timeframe, the Nasdaq remains above the EMA-100, which has served as strong support through multiple successful rebounds. Simultaneously, the price has moved above the bullish trendline, reinforcing the ongoing uptrend. Within wave 4, the price formed a falling wedge pattern, followed by a breakout. This signals the initiation of wave 5, which could potentially extend beyond the length of wave 1, given that wave 3 did not exceed the 1.618 Fibonacci ratio. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator has already formed a bullish crossover, adding further confirmation of a positive outlook for the Nasdaq. Considering these strong technical signals, the price is likely to move upward toward the first target at 23,538 , or potentially the second target at 24,356. However, this bullish scenario depends on the price staying above the critical stop-loss level at 20,833. Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below. Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Nasdaq."
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by financialfreedomgoals101
1
US 100 bias long bullish indications: making HHHL in day time frame, 4 hr : respected fib level 0.382 and retraced. Major support respected with morning star candle formation. Trend line resistance is broken. Forming a inverted head and shoulder pattern in 1 hr with MA21 being respected. There is a second formation of inverted head and shoulder in 30 min which indicates bullish move. 15 min shows clear bullish candle formation with IHS Bearish indications: Major resistance ahead to get the confluence for long . Based on the confluences pair shows bullish indications hence going long . Trade plan bias long @ 22106 SL:22050 TP1:22168 tp2:22211
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by gouthamkulal1
US100-bias short Bullish indications: Bullish inside bar candle in day time frame. Resistance broken at 21233 Bearish indications: Pair has made three black crows candles previously. Making LLLH in 4 hr time frame. in 2 hr : MA21 is getting respected which is a strong bearish signal , i should exit the trade immediately possible before it hits my SL . 4 hr : MA 21 is crossing over 200 indicates bearish 1 hr : strong bearish engulfer candle from resistance Trade plan bias short @21228 SL:21342 TP1:21118 TP2:21025
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by gouthamkulal1
Nasdaq 100 Hits Yearly Low, Led by NVDA DeclineNasdaq 100 Hits Yearly Low, Led by NVDA Decline The Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) has fallen below 20,500 for the first time since November 2024. Bearish sentiment driven by: → The latest US jobless claims report, which showed the highest figures of 2025. → Concerns over the destabilising and economically damaging potential of Donald Trump’s trade policies. Nvidia (NVDA) Among the Biggest Losers While the Nasdaq 100 lost over 2.5% in yesterday’s session, Nvidia (NVDA) shares plunged nearly 8% despite a stronger-than-expected quarterly report, as we noted yesterday. Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) The ongoing decline has resulted in a bearish breakout of the trendline (marked in blue) that originated in 2024. Based on key reversals (highlighted with red circles), the chart now outlines a descending channel. An attempted breakout (indicated by an arrow) failed, forming a bearish Rounding Top pattern. If bearish sentiment prevails—especially with focus on inflation data, as the Core PCE Price Index is set to be released today at 16:30 GMT+3—Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) may drop further towards the lower boundary of the descending channel. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:NDQM
by FXOpen
1
Price may continue to decline, wait for market rebound and entry(The following is solely a personal opinion and not investment advice. Please conduct your own analysis before making any decisions.) NVIDIA's earnings report exceeded expectations, yet the market saw a sharp decline on Thursday. The price broke below 20,800, indicating weakening bullish momentum and the potential for further downside. Given the significant drop in price, it would be prudent to wait for a market rebound before considering short positions. I will closely monitor price action in the 21,300–21,481 range.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by zygliu
US Tech 100 (NDX) Technical Analysis - Bearish Swing OpportunityThe Nasdaq-100 has reached a critical technical juncture presenting a high-probability short opportunity for the coming week. Multiple technical factors have aligned to suggest a significant downside move is developing. Key Technical Observations Price Structure Analysis Formation of a failed retest of broken uptrend support, now functioning as resistance Rejection from the Point of Control (POC) area around 21,122 Price failed to recapture the key Value Area Low (VAL) at 21,086 Clear lower highs and lower lows developing on the H4 timeframe Moving Average Configuration All major EMAs (8, 13, 21, 55, 200) are in bearish alignment Price trading well below the 55 EMA, confirming the bearish bias Recent price action showing rejection at the 21 EMA intersection Momentum Indicators MACD showing continued negative momentum and bearish divergence Volume profile indicates diminishing buying pressure during recent consolidation Momentum oscillators in oversold territory but showing no reversal signals Trade Setup Entry near 21,110 provides an excellent risk-reward opportunity with a stop above the recent swing high at 21,383. The primary target at 20,500 represents a significant support level and offers substantial profit potential. Macro Context Recent macroeconomic uncertainty combined with technical exhaustion after the recent rally creates an environment supportive of this correction. Key catalysts in the coming days could accelerate this move. Expected Price Behavior Look for initial support tests around 21,000 psychological level, followed by potential acceleration toward the blue box support zone. Expect periods of consolidation during this move, particularly at previous support levels around 20,950 and 20,750. This setup provides an excellent swing trading opportunity with favorable risk-reward dynamics and strong technical confirmation.
ICMARKETS:USTECShort
by FXCapitalClub
"NASDAQ 100 (US 100) Bearish Outlook: Will Supply Zones Hold?"🔹Technical Analysis: US 100 Index (15-Minute Chart) ▪️Key Observations: 1. Downtrend Continuation: - The US 100 Index is currently in a bearish trend, forming lower highs and lower lows. - The price is trading below key resistance zones, indicating further downside potential. 2.Supply Zones Identified: - Two significant supply zones are marked on the chart where selling pressure is expected. - The first supply zone is around 21,450 – 21,520. - The second, stronger supply zone is near 21,600 – 21,700, where a previous sell-off occurred. 3. Bearish Rejection Expected: - The price is likely to retest the lower supply zone before continuing downward. - A rejection from this zone could lead to further declines. 4. Target Area: - The projected target area is marked around 20,914, suggesting a possible continuation of the downtrend. - If the price breaks below this level, further downside momentum could follow. ▪️Conclusion: - The market structure remains bearish, and traders should watch for a potential rejection at the supply zone. - A confirmation of resistance could provide shorting opportunities toward the 20,914 target area. - However, a breakout above the supply zone could invalidate the bearish outlook. ▪️Trade Idea: Bearish Bias – Wait for confirmation at the supply zone before considering short positions. 😊Don't Forget To Hit The Like Button & Share Your Thoughts In Comments.
TVC:NDQShort
by SOAM_PRO_TRADER
Nasdaq-100 H4 | Rising into pullback resistanceNasdaq-100 (NAS100) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 20,775.39 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 21,000.00 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 50.0% retracements. Take profit is at 20,354.08 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:NAS100Short
by FXCM
NASDAQ 100 Feb 27th Below are some general, educational ideas on how traders often approach markets under conditions like these. This is not financial advice—simply a high‐level look at potential strategies, risk‐management considerations, and scenarios based on the previous technical report. Always do your own due diligence and consider professional advice for your specific situation. 1. Short‐Term “Oversold Bounce” Play • Rationale: On the Daily and 4H charts, the RSI/Stochastics and Bollinger Bands all suggest near‐term oversold conditions. When a market is oversold, a relief bounce often occurs—even within a downtrend. • Possible Approach: 1. Entry: Some traders will look for intraday bullish signals (a strong reversal candle, bullish divergence on lower timeframes, or a break/retest of minor resistance) around the 20,200–20,500 zone. 2. Targets: Potential short‐term rebound levels near: • 21,000 (initial pivot/confluence of 4H Fib & round number) • 21,300–21,400 (Daily Ichimoku or 4H cloud base, stronger overhead supply) 3. Stop‐Loss / Invalidation: • Placed below the recent swing low (~20,500) or below the 200‐day SMA (~20,264). If price definitively breaks those on a closing basis, it can signal that the bounce attempt is failing. • Risk: If the market continues sharply lower, oversold can remain oversold. A deeper flush is possible if we lose key supports. 2. “Sell the Rally” Within a Short‐Term Downtrend • Rationale: The Daily and 4H structures are in a confirmed short‐term downtrend (lower highs/lower lows). Traders who believe the market has further to fall might look to short near overhead resistance. • Possible Approach: 1. Entry: Wait for a bounce into known resistance or Fib retracement zones on the 4H or Daily chart: • ~21,000–21,100 (minor) • ~21,300–21,400 (major supply area / daily cloud) 2. Confirmation: Look for bearish candlestick patterns, a failed retest, or negative divergences on short timeframes to signal rally exhaustion. 3. Targets: Could be fresh lows below ~20,500 or deeper daily/weekly support at ~19,500–20,000. 4. Stop‐Loss / Invalidation: A sustained close above the daily Ichimoku cloud or prior pivot highs (~21,400–21,500) would indicate the short‐term trend shift might be reversing back bullish. • Risk: A strong short‐covering rally can quickly stop out short positions if the broader weekly uptrend reasserts itself. 3. Longer‐Term Positioning Near Key Weekly Support • Rationale: The monthly and weekly charts remain in a long‐term uptrend. Some position traders/investors view pullbacks into major weekly levels as potential accumulation zones. • Possible Approach: 1. Key Level: ~19,500–19,600 is the last major weekly swing low. If price ever re‐tests that zone, it’s a critical decision area. 2. Confirmation: Wait for a weekly bullish reversal candle (e.g., a hammer, bullish engulfing) or a break back above the 10‐week SMA. 3. Stop‐Loss / Invalidation: A weekly close below ~19,500 could signal a deeper structural breakdown. 4. Targets: Over the longer horizon, a rebound from weekly support might aim for retests of all‐time highs or upper monthly fib extensions (e.g., 24,000+). • Risk: If the weekly uptrend fails and breaks below ~19,500, it can cascade into a more pronounced corrective phase. 4. Hedge or Manage Existing Long Positions • Rationale: If you’ve been holding longer‐term bullish positions, you might want to hedge part of it during a short‐term downswing. • Possible Approach: • Options: Buying puts or put spreads to limit downside risk or selling covered calls to collect premium if you expect sideways to down movement. • Futures: Small short futures/CFD positions to offset some exposure. • Risk: Over‐hedging can cut into upside gains if the market rebounds strongly. 5. Patience / Sidelines • Rationale: If the technical picture is uncertain—and you don’t have a strong directional edge—sitting on the sidelines and observing is a perfectly valid play. You can wait for more clarity or for the market to confirm a reversal/breakdown before committing capital. • Risk: Missing out on a sudden reversal or failing to catch the next leg if it rebounds quickly. But if uncertainty is high, waiting for a clearer signal can preserve capital. General Guidelines & Risk Management 1. Align With Your Timeframe: • Short‐term scalps (4H or lower) require tight stops and nimble trading. • Swing trades might look to daily/weekly structure for bigger moves. 2. Watch Volatility: • ATR on daily/4H has risen. Expect larger intraday swings; position size accordingly. 3. Use Stop‐Losses: • The market has shown it can move quickly in either direction lately. Protective stops or mental exit levels are crucial. 4. Monitor Macro Drivers: • Economic data, interest rate shifts, or major earnings releases can override technical signals short term. 5. Be Prepared for Whipsaw: • When multiple timeframes conflict (monthly/weekly bullish vs. daily/4H bearish), the market can give false breaks or frequent direction changes. Disclaimer: This outline is for educational purposes only, reflecting common approaches traders might take. It does not constitute financial advice. Always consider your own objectives, risk tolerance, and potentially consult a financial professional when making investment decisions.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by EliteMarketAnalysis
NAS100 at Key Support – Bullish Rebound Ahead?PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 is currently testing a major demand zone, which has previously acted as strong support. The recent bearish move has brought price into this key area, increasing the probability of a potential bullish reversal. If buyers step in and defend this zone, we could see a bounce toward the 21,655 level, aligning with a short-term recovery from the current dip. However, a break and close below this support zone would invalidate the bullish bias and could lead to further declines. Traders should look for bullish confirmation signals such as rejection wicks, bullish engulfing candles, or a shift in momentum before considering long positions. Do you agree with this analysis? Drop your thoughts below!
ICMARKETS:USTECLong
by DanieIM
1