NAS100 trade ideas
NAS100 H4 | Potential bullish bounce off overlap supportNAS100 is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 19,779.50 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 19,550.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 20,093.98 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
level.
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NAS100 - Bearish trendThe current chart exhibits a clear downtrend characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows. This pattern signals a persistent bearish sentiment, indicating that sellers are dominating the market. Notably, there is no divergence present, reinforcing the strength of the downtrend.
NAS100 UPDATE - "Risk - Off" Sentiment !20 SMA - BLUE
200 SMA - PINK
Key Confluence Areas: Grey Lines
How I see it:
Possible correction. Then "SHORT" continuation, if sentiment remains.
Check your calendars, big labor data week!
Thank you for your time reading, boosting and/ or following my analysis.
I deeply appreciate it.
Nas Buys CRT Manipulation of Last weeks low into key levels. Expecting price to target at least midpoint of last weeks range then ultimately last weeks high
Nasdaq Thoughts 02-Oct-2024GOOD MORNING Everyone! Please find my Nasdaq market analysis for today below. As a price action trader, I encourage you to compare my charts with yours and use my insights to enhance your skills. These videos are designed for educational purposes only, not as trading signals. My goal is to help you grow and become a proficient trader.
NAS SHORTMeasured moved from previous drop, we are due for a correction, im short the max leverage with a $1000 account @ 20257. TP way down around 17,000
Nasdaq - Another +50% From Here!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) just broke out of a major channel:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
It really seems like the Nasdaq is about to repeat the breakout behaviour of 2020. However, last month the Nasdaq showed some significant signs of weakness and vulnerability. The next couple of months will be very decisive, but the past of least resistance still seems towards the upside.
Levels to watch: $20.000, $25.000, $16.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ: New buy level approaching.Nasdaq has almost turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.199, MACD = 255.840, ADX = 43.908), which is gradually starting to wave a buy signal again as the price almost hit the 4H MA200. Technically if the 4H RSI approaches the oversold level of 30.000, it is the first buy entry inside the Channel Up. We already have a 4H Golden Cross in our hands. Expect at least a +15.55% rise (TP = 21,150) to complete this bullish wave.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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My current nasdaq sell Nasdaq Short Trade Report 30th - 4th
This report outlines a potential short position on Nasdaq for the upcoming week, based on a confluence of technical indicators and macroeconomic data. Key economic releases such as PMI (Tuesday) and NFP (Friday) are expected to have significant market impact. A weak PMI report, indicating a slowdown in global manufacturing or supply chain issues, could fuel further bearish momentum for tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq.
The trade setup is backed by more than six confluences, including technical sell signals, volatility measures, and fundamental macroeconomic indicators. The entry is targeted around 19,990.34, with a take-profit (TP) at 19,237.95 and a stop-loss (SL) at 20,038.60. This trade is powered by an expectation of significant moves driven by upcoming data and market sentiment.
Market Overview
Key Economic Events:
* PMI on Tuesday: A weak PMI could indicate a slowdown in global manufacturing and potentially push the Nasdaq lower.
ADP Employment Change (Sep)
Wednesday
Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
ISM Services PMI (Sep)
Thursday
A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that services sector activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD
* NFP on Friday: Weak job data could confirm economic slowdown, driving further downside pressure on the Nasdaq.
The broader market sentiment shows increasing volatility, with global supply chain constraints and inflationary pressures impacting growth forecasts. If both the PMI and NFP data come out weaker than expected, this could lead to a sustained sell-off, extending the hold on our trade.
Technical Analysis:
1. 1H Sell Signal & 4H Rejection off Resistance
* 1H Chart: The EA has generated a sell signal on the 1-hour timeframe. We are awaiting further confirmation from the 4H rejection off resistance, which will strengthen the bearish case.
* 4H Chart: The 4-hour rejection off resistance level is crucial for reinforcing the short. If resistance holds, it could signal a substantial move to the downside.
2. RSI Overbought Condition on 4H
* The RSI on the 4-hour chart indicates that the market is overbought, suggesting potential for a pullback. The last significant overbought point led to a sell-off, with the entry expected around 19,990.34. The TP is set at 19,237.95, and the SL at 20,038.60. This equates to a move of roughly 752 points (or pips), calculated between the entry and TP levels.
3. Rising ATR (Volatility Indicator)
* The ATR is nearing a reading of 100, signaling that the market is becoming increasingly volatile. Such levels typically indicate sharp, aggressive moves ahead, likely coinciding with the NFP release on Friday. This supports a more volatile Nasdaq environment, conducive to significant price movements in our favor.
Fundamental Analysis (Macroeconomic Indicators)
4. Dollar Index (DXY) Impact
* DXY: A rising Dollar Index often places downward pressure on tech stocks in the Nasdaq, as a stronger dollar reduces overseas earnings. The DXY has bounced off of support and appears to be trending upwards, which could be confirmed after the next market open with a 1H buy signal from the EA. A bullish DXY will further reinforce the bearish outlook on Nasdaq.
* VIX (Volatility Index): Rising VIX levels indicate increased market uncertainty, which tends to lead to sell-offs in riskier assets like tech stocks. If the VIX continues its upward trajectory, it could trigger further bearish sentiment on the Nasdaq.
Formula:
* VIX (rising) + DXY (stronger dollar) = Nasdaq bearish pressure.
Volume Analysis:
5. High Volume Sell-offs
* Significant volume spikes occurred during the 4-hour rejection at the 20,200 level, indicating large institutional sell-offs. High volume at key resistance levels often signifies institutional participation, further validating the bearish outlook.
Sentiment and Positioning Data:
6. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report
* The latest COT report shows a notable shift, with a net positive for short positions over longs, with 7,000 additional short positions. This sentiment aligns with the overall bearish outlook on Nasdaq, as institutions appear to be positioning for downside risk.
7. Greed Sentiment
* The greed sentiment index currently shows extreme greed in the market, which typically signals a contrarian move to the downside. When markets reach excessive greed, they are often primed for a correction, supporting our short position.
After negative news already in a bearish movement when their is a trigger towards fear is going up and after heavy greed occurred (like mini stock market crashes) Then market will only want to buy back (at the lowest level of fear) so stay focused on news events that can further drive down price in an already bearish sentiment
Trade Setup:
Entry:
* Sell Entry: 19,990.34
Take-Profit (TP):
* TP Target: 19,237.95
* Pip Distance: Approximately 752 pips.
Stop-Loss (SL):
* SL Level: 20,038.60
* Pip Distance: Approximately 48 pips above the entry.
Position Size:
* Account Size: R1500
* Lot Size: 0.1 lot, as each 40-pip move corresponds to R830.
1. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
* Buy Opportunity:
* Entry Trigger: If the price breaks above the recent resistance at 100.455 and the RSI moves above 50, this could confirm a bullish momentum.
* Stop Loss: Place below the recent support at 100.388.
* Take Profit: Target the next resistance level at 101.000.
* Sell Opportunity:
* Entry Trigger: If the price fails to break above resistance and drops below 100.388, with the RSI confirming a bearish trend, consider entering a sell.
* Stop Loss: Set above the resistance level.
* Take Profit: Aim for the lower support level around 100.200.
* 2. VIX (Volatility Index)
* Buy Opportunity:
* The VIX showing a breakout above its recent highs could signal increasing market volatility.
* Consider buying VIX options or ETFs if it approaches or exceeds 18.50.
* Sell Opportunity:
* If the VIX starts showing signs of rejection below 17.50, this could signal a return to stability, making it an opportunity to sell VIX positions.
Risk-Reward Profile:
The risk-to-reward ratio for this trade is highly favorable. Given the expected downside move and the strategic placement of the SL and TP, we are targeting a 1:15 risk-to-reward ratio, based on current technical setups and market sentiment.
Conclusion:
This Nasdaq short trade is supported by a combination of technical sell signals, macro fundamentals, and market sentiment data. The bearish scenario is reinforced by high volume sell-offs, overbought RSI conditions, rising DXY, and increased market volatility (VIX and ATR). Key economic events, such as the PMI and NFP, will play a pivotal role in determining the strength and duration of this trade.
Institutional participation and positioning data (COT) further suggest that the downside potential is significant. Based on these confluences, the trade offers a compelling risk-to-reward profile for a short position on Nasdaq this week.
Updates on Nasdaq as of Tuesday 1 October
- PMI results for the US ended coming our negative now the market has moved to its bearish momentum as expected on Tuesday
- Vix and DXY at highs
In 300 points on this short
NASDAQas predicted, was looking at this sell opportunity, but my over all are buys at this 15min and 1 hr order block at bottom. i can do a entire break down but then i would be giving away valuable knowldge, that i had to learn, but anyways yea save this one and the last one i posted n buys and youll see why i bought at the bottom, and now going for another buy
UPDATE ON NAS100 SHORTSNAS100 1H - As you can see the analysis we put out last week has played out perfectly for us as price continues to trade us lower, I am expecting this bearishness to continue right down to our TP.
I was looking for another re-entry for us all but couldn't quite put my finger on one, nonetheless we have had two clear opportunities to get involved in this market and price has played out really well since.
This trade is currently running + 650 pips. (+ 5.5%) 5.5RR
Please ensure that those of you who did take part in this trade are taking partials throughout the running position, its important to do this as it mitigates risk and maximises profits. I have gone ahead and taken a 50% partial personally.
I will be monitoring this position over the coming days and I will try and source an additional entry for those who may have missed the first two. Any questions drop me a message or comment below!
NASDAQ US100 TODAYMore things tell me more sell than buy.
This is my view on NASDAQ today
Remember about small risk
USNAS100 / Bearish Below 20,080, Bullish Above 20,280Nasdaq Technical Analysis:
Futures dip ahead of labor data; Powell signals modest rate cuts
Currently, the price needs to stabilize below 20,080 to target 19860, with a potential further decline to 19,690 by breaking 19860.
On the other hand, if the price stabilizes above 20180, it could aim for 20450 and 20700.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 20090
Resistance Levels: 20180, 20420, 20710
Support Levels: 19900, 19,690, 19,540
Expected Trading Range for Today: 19860 to 20280
Trend:
Bearish by stability under 20080
Bullish: If 20280 is broken
Us100Us100
Forecast for October came early hope you caught it !!!!!
More coming soon..
Will be posting a full update after new York close .
POTENTIAL SHORT OPPORTUNITY ON THE NAS100 (NASDAQ)Hey everyone I hope you are having a blessed weekend so far! Just wanted to get on here and share a potential short opportunity I see on the NAS100 (NASDAQ) index! OK so let's dive in!
OK so on the higher timeframe I think it is fairly clear that price is sitting around all time highs for this index...now I DONT USUALLY try to short the stock/indices market very often but I see potential from that previous level of supply formed back in July of this year! We can see that price fell sharply and strongly from that level of formed supply, or seller area. However it makes sense for you!
SO what I am really looking for in the current and future price is how the buyers bring price into that level. If it comes very strong to that level that I would NOT be interested in trading it short since momentum=interest in the markets. What I mean is that the markets are like a receipt, the larger the order, the larger the order will appear on the receipt (charts).
Alright guys going to keep this one simple! Whatever technical confluences you use with your trading zones of course you should apply and always use good risk management.
Appreciate you all please boost post and follow my page for more accurate setups! Cheers! God Bless!
Final-UPDATE_NAS100-H4_September-2024The analysis proved to be accurate.
Waiting for the next trade.
NASDAQ. BUY@HELLO everyone , BELOW 💲19733.2 "US Tech 100" price is cheap to buy and @💲20482.3 "US Tech 100" price is expensive to buy. , i wanna see price trading bellow 💲19733.2 then find a buy setup on the lower timeframes..
{new week , new month "NFP Week"
NASDAQ SELLSAs usual, price have been on an expansion leg to the upside for quite sometime. And then it topped, before taking out the buyside liquidity and then just recently broke to the downside
I want to see a retest into the 4hr FVG and then a continuation leg to the equal lows below current market price
NAS 100 IS bearing todayNAS100 broke out of the right shoulder in the head and shoulders formation early 10/1/2024. Perhaps on the heels of the dock workers strike since 12 Midnight? Take profit where it makes sense for you.
