USTEC Very good day to you all My US 100 short trade is still open from 22850 (no change in my bearish bias)
My gold long trade is still on as i said yesterday that I will close it if any 30 minutes candle closes under 3283 which it did not happen still now but went around my SL zone to test the emotions but I'll not close it, unless what I said, happens
I do not know what will be decided or announced on FOMC meeting by the way but my trades are always open on a pure technical background
🧭 FOMC Minutes + 10Y Auction Will Snap the Coil 📆 Wednesday, July 09, 2025 | ⏰ 10:30 London / 05:30 New York 📦 Status: CPI failed to trigger — now compression faces its moment of truth
📉 Macro Recap (Tue → Wed) • CPI hot (used cars +6.3%), but cooled expectations = ⚖️ no break • Redbook strong → retail demand still holding • Credit prints weak → macro fatigue building • Vol dropped again — but VX1! +8% = short gamma risk brewing
📊 Key Events Today • 🕐 10Y Auction (1PM ET) — duration bid will set tone • 🕑 FOMC Minutes (2PM ET) — market wants clarity, not compression
🔒 Locked Snapshot • SPX 6,243.6 → still coiled above 6,200, no breakout confirmed • NDX 22,769.8 → capped under 22,800, no momo follow-through • BTC 108,742 → flat structure, no trigger yet • GOLD 3,288.5 → hedge demand absent below 3,300 • DXY 97.510 → CPI bounce held — FOMC decides extension • CRUDE 69.26 → builds ignored — price still firm • US10Y 4.403% → flat into auction • VIX 16.31 → surface calm, curve skew builds
🎯 Trade Ideas • 🟢 Long Bias: SPX — if FOMC dovish + 10Y tail • 🔴 Short Bias: GOLD — below 3,300 = hedge flows missing • ⚖️ Neutral: BTC — still stuck, no breakout
📌 Playbook Setup • Scalpers: Fade SPX >6,275 if auction strong / FOMC hawkish • Intraday: Watch NDX under 22,800 — rate sensitive flow zone • Swing: Long SPX or RTY if FOMC relief confirms • Position: Stay light — today resolves or confirms the trap
🧠 Final View • SPX: Still in tight coil — breakout only if policy leans soft • NDX: Tech remains capped — rates + auction matter Compression is mature. FOMC or auction will end it. Stay reactive — vol can snap quickly.
Best Wishes and Success to All 🛡️ Take Profits, Not Chances. 💰 Manage Risk to Accumulate. 🎯 React with Clarity, Not Hope. 🌊 Flow with Intelligence, Not Noise.
⚙️ Views are Personal & Educational, reflective of our Analysis and Research. 🎯 Summary posts only. Full context via DM
⚠️ Educational content only. Not investment advice. 📉 Economic Calendar data reflects futures positioning as of July 09 (reported July 09)
USTEC Very good day to you all
