DOW 104% TARIFFS on China activated. Can the market be saved?Dow Jones (DJIA) is almost on its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and earlier today President Trump activated 104% duties on Chinese imports. This is far from being an encouraging development especially after Monday's attempt for the market to recover.
Most of the gains were lost yesterday and today it is a wait-and-see game in anticipation of the market reaction on the opening bell of Wall Street.
From a long-term technical perspective however, Dow is on a huge buy level that we've only seen another 4 times since the Housing Bubble bottom in March 2009. That buy level consists of two conditions: price touching the 1W MA200 and the 1W RSI hits (or comes extremely close to) the 30.00 oversold limit.
As you can see that has happened last time on September 19 2022 (Inflation Crisis bottom), March 09 2020 (COVID crash), August 24 2015 (China slowdown, Grexit) and August 08 2011 (first correction since 2009 Housing Crisis). The situation most similar to the current, is the COVID crash as it was the fastest drop to the 1W MA200 and 1W RSI to 30.00.
Despite the brutal correction, it took the market 'only' 43 weeks (301 days) to reach again the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. That is the top of the Blue Zone of the Fibonacci Channel Up that started on the March 2009 Housing bottom. The Blue Zone, consisting of the 0.786 - 0.382 Fib range, is important as it has dominated the multi-year bullish trend and contained the price action inside it, with only a few occasions diverging outside of it.
The longest it took Dow to reach the 0.786 Fib again after such correction was 110 weeks (770 days) and that interestingly enough happened two out of the four times. Practically reaching the 0.786 Fib constitutes a Cycle Top.
So essentially, despite the uncertainty and panic, the market is technically on a Support level that in 16 years we've only seen another 4 times, that's once every 4 years, which is a fair sample of a Cycle size. As a result, assuming stability comes to the world through trade deals (and why not Rate Cut announcements), we may see Dow reaching its 0.786 Fib again (and make new ATH) the fastest by February 02 2026, hitting 49000 and the longest by May 17 2027, hitting 56000 roughly.
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๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ
๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
US30 trade ideas
Tariffs Didnโt Cause the Correction โ It Was Coming Anyway๐ฉ Intro: Markets Correct โ They Donโt Need Permission
Every time the market drops hard, the headlines rush in to explain it. This time, it was President Trumpโs dramatic tariff announcement on April 2nd. The media called it a shock.
I didnโt.
Iโve been calling for S&P 500 to drop to 5,200, and NASDAQ-100 to 17,500, since early January.
Not because I predicted tariffs. But because the charts told the story.
The market didnโt fall because of politics โ it fell because it had to.
________________________________________
๐ฅ The Spark: Trumpโs โLiberation Dayโ Tariffs
On April 2, 2025, Trump rolled out an aggressive trade agenda:
โข 10% blanket tariff on all imports
โข Up to 54% tariffs on Chinese goods
โข 25% tariffs on imported cars and parts
โข With limited exemptions for USMCA-aligned countries
Markets reacted instantly:
โข S&P 500 dropped 4.8% โ worst day since 2020
โข NASDAQ-100 plunged over 6%
โข Tech mega caps lost 5โ14% in a day
Sounds like cause and effect, right?
Wrong.
________________________________________
๐ง The Real Cause: A Market That Was Ready to Fall
Letโs talk technicals:
โข S&P 500 had printed a textbook double top at the 6100โ6150 zone
โข NASDAQ-100 had formed a rising wedge, with volume divergence and momentum fading
โข RSI divergence was in place since February
โข MACD had crossed bearish and also deverging
โข Breadth was weakening while indices were still pushing highs
โข Sentiment was euphoric, volatility crushed โ a classic setup
You didnโt need to guess the news. The structure was screaming reversal.
SP500 CHART:
NASDAQ CHART:
________________________________________
๐งฉ Why Tariffs Made a Convenient Narrative
Markets love clean stories. And Trumpโs tariffs offered everything:
โข Emotional trigger
โข Economic fear factor
โข Political drama
โข Global implications
But smart traders know better: markets correct based on positioning, not politics.
As soon as the wedge broke on NAS100 and SPX broke the double top's neck line the path was clear โ risk off.
________________________________________
๐ I Was Calling This Since Q1
The targets were public:
SPX = 5,200. NAS100 = 17,500.
And the logic was simple:
โข Overextension in AI-led tech
โข Complacent VIX environment
โข Crowded long positioning
โข Bearish divergences and fading momentum
Double Top and Rising Wedge on SPX and Nas100
We didnโt need a reason to drop. The market had been levitating without support. All we needed was a trigger โ and we got one.
________________________________________
๐งญ Lesson: Trade the Structure, Not the Story
Hereโs what I hope you take away:
โ
Setups come first. News comes later.
โ
If it wasnโt tariffs, it wouldโve been CPI, earnings, Fed minutes, or a bird on a wire
โ
Donโt chase headlines. Anticipate setups.
The best trades arenโt reactive. Theyโre built on structure, sentiment, and timing โ not waiting for CNBC to tell them whatโs happening.
________________________________________
๐ Conclusion: It Was Never About Tariffs
Tariffs were the match.
But the market was already soaked in gasoline.
This correction was technical, predictable, and clean.
๐ Post Scriptum โ The Setup Shapes the Narrative
Let me be clear:
Iโm not a Trump fan. Hoho โ not by far.
But Iโll swear this on any chart:
If the setup had been the opposite โ double bottom, falling wedge, positive divergences, and improving momentum โ these exact same tariffs wouldโve been interpreted as โbold leadership,โ โpro-growth protectionism,โ or โmarkets pricing in a stronger America.โ
Thatโs how it works.
Price action leads. Narrative follows.
When structure is bullish, traders celebrate even bad news.
When structure is bearish, even good news becomes a reason to sell.
So no โ it wasnโt about Trump. It never is. Itโs about where the market wants to go. The rest is storytelling.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Hanzo | US30 15 min Breaks โ Will Confirm the Next Move๐ US30
The Path of Precision โ Hanzoโs Market Strike
๐ฅ Key Levels & Breakout Strategy โ 15M TF
๐ฅ Deep market insight โ no random moves, only calculated execution.
โ๏ธ Bullish After Break Out โ 40800 Zone
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
โ๏ธ Bearish After Break Out โ 40400 Zone
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
๐ฉธ 15M Time Frame Confluence
โโโโ
CHoCH & Liquidity Grab @ 4850
Key Level / Equal lows Formation - 40400
Strong Rejection from 40790 โ The Ultimate Pivot
Strong Rejection from 39900 โ The Ultimate Pivot
๐ฅ 1H Time Frame Confirmation
Twin Wicks @ 40500 โ Liquidity Engineered
Twin Wicks @ 39850 โ Liquidity Engineered
Twin Wicks @ 40800 zone โ Liquidity Engineered
Hanzo | US30 15 min Breaks โ Will Confirm the Next Move๐ US30
The Path of Precision โ Hanzoโs Market Strike
๐ฅ Key Levels & Breakout Strategy โ 15M TF
๐ฅ Deep market insight โ no random moves, only calculated execution.
โ๏ธ Bullish After Break Out โ 40850 Zone
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
โ๏ธ Bearish After Break Out โ 40400 Zone
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
๐ฉธ 15M Time Frame Confluence
โโโโ
CHoCH & Liquidity Grab @ 4850
Key Level / Equal lows Formation - 40400
Strong Rejection from 40790 โ The Ultimate Pivot
Strong Rejection from 39900 โ The Ultimate Pivot
๐ฅ 1H Time Frame Confirmation
Twin Wicks @ 40500 โ Liquidity Engineered
Twin Wicks @ 39850 โ Liquidity Engineered
Twin Wicks @ 40800 zone โ Liquidity Engineered
US30 I Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 40693.92, which is an overlap resistance.
Our take profit will be at 39359.24, an overlap support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 42215.43, which is a swing high resistance level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (โCompanyโ, โweโ) by a third-party provider (โTFA Global Pte Ltdโ). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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Trade Idea: US30 Short ( MARKET ) Daily Chart (Macro View):
โข Bearish divergence: RSI is at 47.38 and turning down โ no strong bullish momentum.
โข Recent bounce is sharp but came after a massive drop, suggesting a dead cat bounce or retracement.
โข MACD remains heavily bearish (-836), showing underlying weakness despite the current bounce.
โข Price recently rejected a key resistance near 40,850, aligning with previous support-turned-resistance levels.
15-Min Chart (Medium-Term):
โข RSI is at 78.76 โ overbought territory.
โข Price surged parabolically, forming potential exhaustion.
โข MACD shows very high positive values (672.341), usually precedes a correction.
โข Potential bearish divergence between price and MACD.
3-Min Chart (Entry Timing):
โข Price has stalled at the top, consolidating after an extreme spike.
โข MACD and RSI are curling down.
โข Ideal for timing a short entry.
โธป
Trade Idea: SHORT US30
โข Entry: 40,850 (current resistance zone + psychological level)
โข Stop Loss: 41,200 (above key recent highs / invalidation of setup)
โข Take Profit: 39,450 (near broken structure & moving average support on lower timeframes)
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):
โข Risk: 350 points
โข Reward: 1,400 points
โข RRR: 4:1 (excellent)
โธป
Fundamental Context (Supporting the Short Bias):
โข Dow is rebounding amid broader market uncertainty (e.g., Fed rate trajectory, inflation prints).
โข No strong economic catalyst justifying a sustained breakout to new highs โ suggests technical bounce rather than trend reversal.
โข Rising yields or a hawkish Fed outlook could reintroduce selling pressure.
FUSIONMARKETS:US30
Beyond the Noise: US30 Analysis and Actionable Trade Ideas.Technical Analysis: US30 (Dow Jones)
๐ The US30 index is currently displaying a bearish trend on the weekly timeframe. We're observing a strong rally followed by a pullback into equilibrium when measured against the previous price swing range.
๐ At present, the index sits in a premium zone, creating conditions where short positions may be accumulating for potential downside movement. However, market sentiment remains highly susceptible to external factors, particularly political statements and social media activity from key figures like Donald Trump.
โ ๏ธ Given this unpredictability, a more prudent approach involves shifting focus to lower timeframes and following price action signals directly. The 30-minute chart presents a defined range that offers potential trade opportunities.
๐ก Trade Idea: Monitor the current range on the 30-minute timeframe. A decisive break above the range could signal a long entry opportunity, while a break below may indicate a short entry position.
๐ This range-breakout strategy allows traders to adapt to market conditions rather than attempting to predict overall market direction, which has proven increasingly challenging in the current economic and political climate.
Not financial advice.
US30 WILL FALL|SHORT|
โ
DOW JONES is set to retest a
Strong resistance level above at 41,000
After trading in a local uptrend for some time
Which makes a bearish pullback a likely scenario
With the target being a local support below at 40,000
SHORT๐ฅ
โ
Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!โ
โจโจ
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
US30 Best 2 Places To Buy To Get 1000 Pips , Are You Ready ?Here is my opinion on US30 , If we are talking about buy , so this is the best 2 places to can buy it , first one , it`s an old res and working as new supp now , and it`s my fav place to buy , second one we need a Daily closure above this strong res to confirm that the price will continue to upside , and then we can wait he price to go back to retest the broken area and enter a buy trade and targeting 1000 pips .
This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decision
Update to Dow Jones Industrials Time At Mode Back in 2015 I had published a chart with annual data for the Dow Jones Industrials. I will provide a link at the bottom.
The research for this patterning is something I did myself by hand using pencil and paper back in the 1980's. These patterns show up in all time frames.
There is plenty of room to enhance the research on this technique and a group of us gather in the chat rooms here at TradingView to discuss new trades that set up and point out when trades expire.
Notice how these two grey boxes (which are both 50% drops in price) that expand wider in time from the 1960's to the 1980's and the 2000-2010's had a multi-year trend, followed by a monster crash (1987 was 40% and 2000 was 37%) and then just two+ years later there was a secondary bear market of 20% in 1990 and 22% in 2022. Keep in mind this is just for the DJ:DJI and not the Nasdaq Composite or S&P500 which were greater corrections.
The 11-year time frame of the 1999-2011 pattern allows for an 11-year rally from 2012 (which was year 1 of the 11-year rally) shows that time expired. As you can see from the 1943-1962 trend, a smaller 5-year mode formed at the end of the 20 year trend and then the market peaked in 1972-1973 when time expired for the second, smaller mode.
I had to reconstruct this chart after the data for the previous chart changed symbol. See the link below to see the original.
I look forward to your additional research onto this pattern and its implications to the idea that we are in a similar period to 1993-1994 with rally years of 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2000 ahead of us.
All the best,
Tim
October 19, 2024 3:31PM EST
DJ is setting up for a SLINGSHOT to the upside!The "crash" in the DJ could potentially bottom out by late April or early May, at least from a cyclical standpoint. That said, there's still a risk of a further decline into June, as a panic cycle is approaching.
However, from a technical perspective, the weekly chart of the DJ reveals a significant demand imbalance that aligns with cyclical support, suggesting the potential for a major low.
Regardless, the stage is being set for a SLINGSHOT to the upside, as capital begins to flee Europe and flow into the U.S. amid rising global tensions and uncertainty.
Both the DJ and Gold are poised to reach new all-time highs ahead!
Dow Jones INTRADAY reaction to China Tariffs HikeKey Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 41100
Resistance Level 2: 42170
Resistance Level 3: 42800
Support Level 1: 37554
Support Level 2: 36620
Support Level 3: 35125
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
"US30/DJI30" Index CFD Market Heist Plan (Scalping/Day Trade)๐Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!๐
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, ๐ค ๐ฐ๐ธโ๏ธ
Based on ๐ฅThief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis๐ฅ, here is our master plan to heist the "US30/DJI30" Index CFD Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is to escape near the high-risk MA Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. ๐๐ธ"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!๐ช๐๐
Entry ๐ : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (40800) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level for Pullback entries.
๐I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
Stop Loss ๐: "๐ Yo, listen up! ๐ฃ๏ธ If you're lookin' to get in on a buy stop order, don't even think about settin' that stop loss till after the breakout ๐. You feel me? Now, if you're smart, you'll place that stop loss where I told you to ๐, but if you're a rebel, you can put it wherever you like ๐คช - just don't say I didn't warn you โ ๏ธ. You're playin' with fire ๐ฅ, and it's your risk, not mine ๐."
๐ Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (39200) Day trade basis.
๐ SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
๐ดโโ ๏ธTarget ๐ฏ: 42700 (or) Escape Before the Target
๐งฒScalpers, take note ๐ : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money ๐ฐ.
๐ฐ๐ต๐ด๐ธ"US30/DJI30" Index CFD Market Heist Plan (Day / Scalping Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness๐.., driven by several key factors.๐๐๐
๐ฐ๐๏ธGet & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future trend targets... go ahead to check ๐๐๐๐๐
โ ๏ธTrading Alert : News Releases and Position Management ๐ฐ ๐๏ธ ๐ซ๐
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
๐Supporting our robbery plan ๐ฅHit the Boost Button๐ฅ will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money ๐ฐ๐ต. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.๐๐ช๐คโค๏ธ๐๐
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned ๐ค๐ฑโ๐ค๐ค๐คฉ
Dowjones Short AnalysisDow is in downtrend now. I have used various technique in analysis. Sl is the rectangle top. And target is below arrow.
โค๏ธ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView
. . . . . Please show your support back,
. . . . . . . . Hit the ๐ LIKE button,
. . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment!
โค๏ธ Your support is very much ๐ appreciated!โค๏ธ
DOW/US30 - RETAIL DATA AND POWELL SPEECHTeam,
The market has been a roller coaster due to the Trump Tariff plan
. We are in an entry long position now but with small volume only.
The current for US30 price is 40248
We are using a swing stop loss at 40120
Once the price reaches above 40300, bring stop loss to BE
the data consensus shows that 700% retail increase is more than last month.
this will likely support the market. Also, Trump's tariff plan would improve exports and bring down the DOLLAR.
Therefore, if you are risking a trade 1R buts 5R as a reward
Please assess your risk and make the decision.
NOTE: However, if the price drop toward 39800-39200, I will double and triple my money on long position
will get our money back easily.
Every trade you enter requires a risk and reward
ask yourself and analyst carefully
We can easily get 40300 then bring stop loss to BE for target the range above
Dow Jones - Value Is The King Of 2025!Dow Jones ( TVC:DJI ) withstands all bearish struggles:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis๐๐ป
All major U.S. indices have been weakening lately but the Dow Jones is clearly the strongest of all. It seems like big institutions are shifting back to value stocks and therefore the Dow Jones remains very strong. Looking at technicals, this trend is rather likely to continue during 2025.
Levels to watch: $40.000, $50.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)