US30 MELTDOWN! โ 07/04/25๐ฅ US30 MELTDOWN! โ April 7, 2025 ๐ฅ
๐ Historic Drop: Dow Jones tanks nearly 3,000 points in just days, crashing through all major support levels!
๐ Low Tagged: Price wicked into the 36,743 support zone before catching a small bounce.
๐ง Whatโs Happening?
This looks like panic sellingโlikely triggered by macroeconomic data or unexpected news. Volume is up, and structure is clearly broken.
US30 trade ideas
Just In: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) Dip 1,300 PointsOverview
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, also known as the DJIA or simply the Dow, is a market index frequently used to gauge the overall performance of the U.S. stock market. Indexes like the DJIA track the prices of a group of securities.
The Consumer index saw a downtick of 1300 points representing a 5.5% dip. This was days after Donald Trump declared a new set of tariffs targeting 185 countries, including major U.S. trading allies.
Tariffs Concern
The US stocks are poised to continue their bloodbath as futures signaled more fear over President Donald Trump's tariffs. Administration officials and Trump himself signaled on Sunday that they won't back down from their aggressive decisions. Meanwhile, an inflation report is due later this week as well as bank earnings.
Wall Street remained in fear mode over President Donald Trump's tariffs on Sunday evening as futures pointed to more steep losses.
The S&P 500 futures also sank 3.9% and Nasdaq futures dived 4.9%. That follows a devastating week that saw the worst selloff since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Similarly, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 8.5 basis points to 3.906%, and US crude oil prices fell 3.7% to $59.72 a barrel.
Countries affected by the tariff rates are:
China (34%), the European Union (20%), and Japan (24%). Fitch Ratings estimated that the effective tariff rate could hit 25% on average โ the highest in more than 115 years.
In an X post on Sunday, Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers cautioned, saying there's a very good chance of more market turbulence similar to what was seen on Thursday and Friday.
Those sessions represented the fourth largest two-day drop in the last 85 years, Summer said. The selloff wiped out about $6 trillion in market cap.
โA drop of this magnitude signals that thereโs likely to be trouble ahead, and people ought to be very cautious,โ Summers wrote.
Meanwhile, Trump administration and the president himself defended the tariffs.
Technical Outlook
as of the time of writing, the The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) Dip index point is down 5.5% trading in tandem with the support point that aligns with the 38,000 points. On a bearish case scenario, a break below this axis could be canning for the stock market as it will lead to panic selling in the industries concerned.
Similarly, should the bulls manage to thrust the DJI points up to the 42,000 points, we should experience a respite from the bears and possibly increased momentum might sent the stocks soaring higher. With the RSI at 23, this is hinting to a weak momentum with more downside ahead.
Reversal or Continuation? US30 Tests Major SupportThe US30 is testing a pivotal multi-year trendline following an aggressive breakdown from its early 2025 highs. After months of consistent distribution near the 42,000โ44,000 range, price capitulated with a steep selloff, driving the index down toward the 37,000 level. This area aligns closely with the long-term trendline dating back to late 2023 and marks the lower boundary of the broader structural expansion.
The current reaction appears to be forming at a potential inflection point, as price hovers around the lower bounds of its macro range. The steep angle of descent suggests overextension, with momentum temporarily outpacing rational valuation zones. Meanwhile, a notable high-volume cluster from prior activity remains situated between 41,500 and 42,000 โ an area likely to attract price in the event of a technical retracement.
If buyers begin stepping in at this historically respected trendline, the market could stage a multi-week recovery, targeting this upper resistance zone. However, failure to stabilize here risks further downside, potentially exposing the market to deeper corrections toward 35,000 or lower. All eyes now turn to this structural juncture as price teeters between oversold conditions and critical support.
Bear Market Inbound!What a week, two days of plunge and the Dow sits below where Tariff Trump won.
World markets were ripe for this situation, waiting for the trigger... the trigger no doubt was Trump.
The charts do not lie, the news does not matter as much as price action, the question now is where we bottom for a while and bounce...any rally is to be sold.
Don't try and catch a falling knife, but be very careful shorting here at this point, expect a bottom this week.
Expect further selling Monday to a degree, but we are at a bottom fishing level.
Gold and especially silver were clobbered Thursday and Friday, we expected this earlier in the week and warned of toppy price action on our gold update. PM's are in a wave 4 down sideways move and next comes minor wave 5 up...long term holders have little to worry about...any pullback is a buying opportunity...$3000 gold is major support.
Appreciate a thumbs up...God Bless you all and good trading!
Dow Jones Trend Analysis (Elliott Wave + AO + Volume)๐ Dow Jones Intermediate Trend Analysis (Elliott Wave + AO + Volume)
๐ Elliott Wave Interpretation
The chart reflects a clear Elliott Wave count from the post-COVID low:
Wave I and Wave II are well-established.
Wave III is now completed, accompanied by a peak in AO โ which aligns with classical Elliott theory where AO typically peaks during the 3rd wave, showing strong momentum.
Wave IV is currently unfolding.
๐ Wave IV Characteristics (Ongoing Phase)
Wave IV is expected to be complex โ commonly forming:
Triangles (contracting or expanding),
Flats,
Double/triple threes.
It is likely to consume time and generate sideways or choppy price action.
Volumes, interestingly, are peaking again, which often occurs toward the end of Wave IV due to emotional volatility and retail panic activity.
๐ฎ Two Probable Scenarios for Wave IV Completion:
Scenario 1 (Shallow Correction):
Target Zone: ~37,400
This zone coincides with the 0.382โ0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels from Wave III.
Would reflect a simple flat or sharp zigzag structure.
Scenario 2 (Deeper Correction):
Target Zone: ~34,100
Corresponds to the lower support band with possible spike to 32,988 (FINAL FIB Support).
May occur if external macroeconomic or geopolitical triggers cause extended selling.
๐ Post Wave IV โ Projection for Wave V
Once Wave IV completes:
Wave V is expected to resume the larger bullish cycle.
Price target: New all-time highs, possibly towards the upper blue resistance trendline (~46,000+).
Watch for bullish confirmation with AO flipping and price breaking above Wave IV consolidation highs. before completing 4th wave it always create complex patterns. we need to watch the patterns and it is getting completing before move to 5th wave.
๐ AO (Awesome Oscillator) Insights
AO peak confirms Wave III completion.
Negative divergence between AO and price also supports Wave V capping out, indicating exhaustion of upward momentum.
AO is now retracing โ likely bottoming during the end of Wave IV.
๐ Volume Behavior
Volume peaked at the end of Wave III โ a common occurrence.
Now rising again near Wave IV completion โ this suggests:
Panic selling,
Possible final shakeout before market stabilizes for Wave V.
Monitor for volume drop-off during Wave V's beginning โ a classic signature of reduced fear and return of trend stability.
๐ Critical Support & Resistance Levels
Level Description
37,400 Scenario 1 target / shallow correction
34,100 Scenario 2 deeper correction target
32,988 Final strong support (Fib extension)
46,000+ Potential Wave V high / upper trendline
๐ Conclusion
The intermediate trend is corrective, within a larger bullish framework.
Wave IV is currently playing out and might end soon.
Watch key support zones (37,400 and 34,100) for potential reversal setups.
Once confirmed, Wave V rally could offer significant upside opportunities.
Remain cautious during this volatile consolidation and validate reversal signs before positioning.
๐ Disclaimer
โ ๏ธ This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It is based on technical chart interpretation (Elliott Wave Theory, volume, AO) and does not constitute investment advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involves significant risk, including the risk of losing your capital. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The Dow Jones 100 Year Rising WedgePeople lie. The news lies. But the CHARTS DON"T LIE.
This is a 100 year rising wedge pattern that is occurring on the DJI.
Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, maybe not for another 50 years,
but this pattern will break to the downside.
As of now, a return to the original trendline is HIGHLY LIKELY.
NO FEAR, THIS IS OUT OF LOVE.
EYES OPEN.
US30 will drop by another 10% in next 4 weeks๐ My Macro Analysis Breakdown
Covid Crash:
Sharp -25% collapse.
V-shaped recovery, before another -10%
Inflation Explosion (2022):
-21% drop due to Fed rate hikes.
Choppy sideways market after.
Inflation Cooled (Nov-Dec 23):
Big +22% rally when markets priced in rate cuts.
Trump Re-Election (Nov 2024):
Stocks rallied ~8%.
US Tariffs "Lib Day" (April 2025):
Current Phase: Huge initial crash of -10%.
Projection: I am forecasting another -10% to -12% downside toward 32,352 area.
๐ง Why My Prediction Makes Sense:
Markets always overshoot after a major policy shock (tariffs are no small thing โ this is bigger than inflation).
Fed won't act yet (cut rates) until serious economic data deterioration happens.
Global slowdown fears are increasing (China, Europe showing signs too).
Corporate earnings for Q1 2025 are about to be revised down = next catalyst for more selling.
Technical structure resembles past correction patterns (Covid, Inflation explosion).
๐
Timing (based on past crashes I charted):
Covid crash: 5-6 weeks.
Inflation crash: 2-3 months.
This one: Likely 4-8 weeks of choppy downside.
โก Conclusion:
โ
A prediction of another ~10% drop is totally aligned with both macro fundamentals and technical history.
โ
Expect violent bear market rallies (sharp 2-5% spikes) inside the downtrend โ that's normal.
โ
Bias: Sell the rallies, buy safe havens (gold after the dip, bonds).
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US30 Trade Update โ 04/04/2025๐จ US30 Trade Update โ 04/04/2025 ๐จ
๐ US30 Sell-Off Intensifies!
The Dow Jones has now broken below 41,000 and is approaching the critical support at 40,063. Bears are in full control, and if this level fails, we could see a test of 39,279 next.
๐ Key Observations:
โ
Major rejection at 42,359 resistance
โ
Strong bearish momentum breaking 41,000
๐ป Next Major Support: 40,063 โ 39,279
๐ฏ Trade Plan:
๐น Short below 40,063 โ Target 39,279
๐น Look for bounce signs at 40,063 for potential reversal
๐น Long only if price reclaims 40,600+
โ ๏ธ Watch for a reaction at 40,063โthis level could determine the next major move.
Warning Signs Flashing: Dow Jones Breaks Key SupportThe Dow Jones Index has officially broken its rising trendline support, signaling a possible shift in the medium-term trend. After losing this key ascending structure, price is now hovering near the psychological support zone of 40,000, which has historically acted as both resistance and support.
This level is crucial. If it holds, we could see a temporary bounce or consolidation. However, if the 40K zone fails to provide support, the index may head toward the next major support area around 38,000, aligned with the longer-term trendline support.
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Do Or Die!The past few weeks have caught out many bulls as Trump tariffs wreck the markets.
41K support today may just be the bottom, this area must hold, otherwise we are heading not just for a correction but a bear market.
The falls have been consistent and steady, no real plunges which points to a correction, although we do have a double top from the Dec highs and early Feb highs.
Gold and silver have been the standout performers, 3000 gold will be blown away.
A mix of Trump threats of tariffs and many beginning to wake up to media attention in PM's....a hedge against turmoil.
Any close below the Dow low is a short, from here bottom fishing just may produce a rally of significance, perhaps a rally to sell.
Appreciate a thumbs up and God Bless you all!
Dow Jones INTRADAY bearish below 42375Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 42375
Resistance Level 2: 42846
Resistance Level 3: 43288
Support Level 1: 40560
Support Level 2: 40000
Support Level 3: 39637
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
US30 Testing Major Demand Zone โ Reversal Incoming?๐ Market Overview:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) has dropped into a strong demand zone (41,200 - 41,350), which has historically acted as a major support area. Will buyers step in for a rebound, or will we see further decline?
๐น Key Resistance Levels: 41,932 | 42,605
๐น Current Price: 41,234
๐น Key Support Levels: 41,347 (demand zone) | 41,200
๐ Recent Price Action:
1๏ธโฃ Strong Sell-Off into Demand Zone:
After testing resistance at 41,932, US30 faced heavy selling pressure.
Price has now entered a high-volume support area (41,200 - 41,350).
2๏ธโฃ Potential Reversal Setup:
If buyers hold this zone, we could see a bullish push back to 41,932 (first resistance).
A breakout above 41,932 could open the door for a move to 42,600+.
3๏ธโฃ Breakdown Scenario:
If 41,200 breaks, expect further downside towards 40,800 - 40,500.
This would confirm a bearish continuation pattern.
๐ Trade Plan:
๐ Bullish Setup:
๐น Look for bullish confirmation in the 41,200 - 41,350 zone.
๐น A strong bounce could provide an entry targeting 41,932 and 42,600.
๐ Bearish Setup:
๐น If price fails to hold 41,200, a short opportunity exists targeting 40,800 - 40,500.
๐น Wait for a clean break and retest of 41,200 before shorting.
๐ฅ Will US30 bounce back from this demand zone, or will we see further drops? Comment your thoughts below! ๐
๐ Like & Follow for more trade ideas! ๐
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