US30 What's Below? A giant M-shaped pattern is forming on the Hourly that is in Bearish (directional) Market Bias. The last leg of the "M" is typically a long bear trend.
Below is a Swing Low at 41,148, S&R Zone, and three more Swing Lows further down (at 40,970, 40,930, and 40,821). We'll see how far the bear trend goes.
If the bears can't breach the Swing Low of 41,148, then back up it goes to potentially play Ping Pong between the two S&R Zones, above and below.
US30 The Daily is showing no true direction from the Inside Day pattern that is also a market pause.
As for the Hourly that is in Bearish (directional) Market Bias, a new S&R Zone was created. We'll see if it can block a move down by the bears to only encourage a bigger move to the upside.
An Outside Day showed up to suggest that after the bull run is over, then an immediate retrace to the downside. We'll see if the bears can head for the S&R Zone below that starts at 41,184 and breach the Swing Low at 41,272 along the way.
*Side Note: A typical pattern that shows up that is a mark of market manipulation are giant high-wick candles. One can be seen within the Outside Day pattern.
May 12: Fed Chair Powell Speech (Potential volatility catalyst) May 14: US CPI Data Release (Market-moving inflation figures) May 15: Retail Sales & Jobless Claims (Consumer health indicators) May 16: Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment (Forward-looking metric)
These events could significantly impact the US30 as traders reassess Fed policy expectations. Strong CPI data may pressure stocks, while weak figures could support risk assets.
Key Takeaways
The market shows bullish structure but faces resistance near 41,650 EMA clusters provide dynamic support (40,890-41,120 on 4H) Fibonacci 38.2% at 40,210 is major support if correction occurs Upcoming CPI data could determine next directional move Watch for RSI divergence near current levels for reversal signals
Final Thought: While the trend remains upward, traders should exercise caution near resistance levels and monitor upcoming economic data for potential trend shifts. The confluence of technical levels around 41,150-41,450 makes this zone critical for short-term direction.
The US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is currently trading at 41,327 USD, showing moderate volatility amid mixed macroeconomic signals. This analysis combines Fibonacci retracement, EMA clusters, RSI divergence, and Smart Money Concepts (SMC) to identify high-probability trading zones on daily and 4-hour timeframes. We’ll also examine upcoming USD news events that could influence price action.
US30 What's Below?
