Bitcoin Halving CyclesBitcoin halving cycles chart with signficant bear market lows and highs marked. Bull, bear and consolidation phases noted in red, green and orange.
BLX trade ideas
Predicting the Next Bitcoin 200MA Peak Using Exponential DecayIn my ongoing study of Bitcoin market cycles, I noticed a compelling pattern in the behavior of the 200-day moving average (200MA) across bull markets. Specifically, I observed that the percentage rise of the 200MA from each cycle bottom to cycle top is decreasing over time, and this decline follows an exponential decay pattern.
Historical Observations:
• 2015 Cycle Bottom to 2017 Peak:
The 200MA increased by approximately +686%
• 2018 Cycle Bottom to 2021 Peak:
The 200MA increased by approximately +450%
This pattern suggested to me that the next peak in the 200MA might continue this decaying trajectory. To estimate this, I applied a simple exponential decay model using the two previous data points:
y(t) = A.e^{-kt}
Solving for the next value (t = 2), the model predicts an approximate increase of +296% in the 200MA from the current cycle bottom to the expected peak.
Implication for the Current Cycle:
Assuming the 200MA bottomed around $16,200, a +296% rise implies a target 200MA near:
$16,200 x (1 + 2.96) is approx. $64,000
This aligns remarkably well with the 2021 bull market top, reinforcing the idea that the previous all-time high (~ GETTEX:64K –$69K) could serve as a strong macro support level once this cycle matures.
Conclusion:
If this exponential decay pattern continues, we can expect the 200MA to peak around $64,000 during the current bull cycle. This target also coincides with historical resistance turned potential support, making it a critical level for long-term investors and swing traders alike.
This type of decay-based modeling, while not exact, offers a unique lens through which we can assess Bitcoin’s macro behavior across cycles. I’ll continue to monitor how this projection plays out and refine the model with new data as the market evolves.
Where Would Be OUR NEW ATH!A chart simply well put and long thought
It is simple and self explanatory. Fill your bags
Bear market cycle measures - BTCTurning the chart upside down helps a lot! Used exponential decay to calculate the next data point in the returns section after the midpoint in the bear market (trough to trough)
BTC - Diminishing Returns; Risk BandsNo conclusive forecasting, rather documentation of price and time trends; ATH price contraction within the bands acting as resistance, and critical extrema (lows & highs) coinciding with Fibonacci time levels.
BLX monthly trend channelThe BLX trend channel has been corrected; the previous trend channel was probably incorrect. This is what it should look like. The mid band is important since it has marked significant resistance and support in the past. It gives us a price target of around 400k.
Bitcoin price according to the Bitcoin Liquidity IndexThe Bitcoin bull market from its low in January 2015 to its high in December 2017 lasted 1064 days and the price rose from $163.88 to $19,764.51.
The Bitcoin bull market from its low in December 2018 to its high in November 2021 took 1064 days and the price rose from $3,211.19 to $68,944.62.
If this is repeated, the Bitcoin bull market from its low of $15,804.43 in November 2022 will find its high of $500,000 or more in October 2025, which Bitcoin could easily do if you look at 2017, for example.
BTCUSD vs. M2 Supply - It's HOT Right Now!🔥 BTCUSD vs. M2 Supply 💸📈 – It’s HOT Right Now! 🔥
Everybody has been posting M2/btc charts. Here's mine:
I roughly averaged the trends for PRE and POST-lockdowns MARCH 2020 for both global M2 and bitcoin. Bitcoin is on a log trend so that it can keep up with how absurd the money printing is. Even so, M2 is currently out-pacing bitcoin's trend, so something has to break.
M2 is charted against 3 months lag.
This graph is highly experimental and for reference only.
Once we break and hold above $100K, it’s ALTCOIN SEASON🔥🔥 THE HEAT IS ON 🔥🔥
Hey fam! 😎✌️
The market is warming up for summer 2025, and the whales are scooping up BTC like crazy! 🐳
+2 BILLION $$ in Bitcoin Spot ETF inflows in just the last 2 days! 😱
We’ve just seen the largest BTC exchange outflow since Feb 2023, a strong sign of massive accumulation ahead of a potential rally 🚀🚀🚀
We’ve hit our $93K target, as predicted earlier — now I’m looking for a pullback to GETTEX:87K - $85K.
💡 That’s where you’ll find the tastiest altcoin entries.
Once we break and hold above $100K, it’s ALTCOIN SEASON
The Perfect Bounce- Quick update
- IYKYK.
- Everything is in graph, no need a long speech.
Happy Tr4Ding !
The Road to The Mooni like to make some graphs like that when peoples are in Dispair mode.
- i used a modified ADX indicator with a Monthly Timeframe ( thanks to the creator by the way )
- Look at the Mountains and tell me when in past bullruns we stopped at 100 ? - Never -
- The Highest Point is 160+
That said my advice for now is : " You don't really care if TheKing will back to 20k, what you have to care is the Highest point TheKing will reach! "
- Don't Think it's the end of this bullrun
- Don't Listen Fuders
- Use indicators for the Long Term
- Believe in Trends and cycles movements
- Believe in the future of cryptos
- Believe in TheKing because Theking cannot die.
Happy Tr4Ding !
Bitcoin are you Worried ?Everything is in chart.
- Like i said many times, more you look from far, more it's easy to predict the future.
- This Monthly Chart combinated with indicators show you how BTC moved in 2016-2017 BullRun so keep eyes open and you will find the way for 2020-2021.
- We cannot compare a Bullrun from 400$ to 20,000$ with a Bullrun From 4000$ to 3XX,XXX+$, the chart will be exponential. We are now playing with big numbers.
- imo right now we are in fake bear market stage, this stage happened also in 2016-2017 pre-bullrun ( but Numbers were smallers...), whales are just trying to create fear and remove retails investors.
- Actual stage could be a Consolidation Phase, if Whales see there's a lack of interest, they will push BTC up, or we could get a quick fast Trap to 20,000$ if Whales feel Retails not fear enough (Not sell their BTC).
- 100 000$ Target is still very preservative, past this stage it will be the FOMO Stage to go Higher!
TheKing is dead??? Long live TheKing!! :D
Happy Tr4Ding !
BTC next bottom -50% ?⚡️ I’ve been saying since December and January that selling around $108K was a smart move. Meanwhile, mainstream analysts were predicting $150K in winter and $200K by spring—now you can ask them, where are those predictions?
📝 This correction might feel painful, but let’s be real—it was expected for those who were paying attention. We had a parabolic move, and markets don’t rise forever. Right now, we are experiencing a mid-cycle correction, similar to 2021, when Bitcoin retraced 50% a year before the final peak.
💡 I still believe we’ll see new highs this year. The key now is to monitor the stock market—a prolonged equity downturn could extend this consolidation. But if history serves as any guide, these dips are opportunities, not the end of the cycle. Stay sharp.
Is the BTC BullRun Over or Just Taking a Breather?This is the Bitcoin analysis I’ve been following and refining over the past four years. It’s been fascinating to observe how the impact of BTC halvings on price has gradually diminished over time, while each bull run tends to last longer than the previous one.
That said, history doesn’t always repeat itself, but it often rhymes. These patterns provide a helpful framework to better understand Bitcoin’s long-term behavior.
If $109,000 turns out to be the top of this cycle, we could see the price revisit the $50,000 area (or even lower). However, we’re still holding a strong bullish trendline that continues to support the price. For now, I’ll be watching closely to spot any key signals before the next big move.
to the moon ! erkhm.....nope, thanks a lot.I will skip this one. I have funny feeling about this. just looks like petty theft attempt.
ITS TIME , FINAL WAVE FOR BITCOIN HAS BEGAN The final wave for Bitcoin has officially started; 200k by September 2025 is the call. So far, since October 2024, we have been getting every macro move correct. Going to avoid repeating a lot of content from the previous two TAs; check it out below.
The lower high on the RSI called the momentum shift on this one; it was clear.
December 17th, 2024, calling for a pullback down to 82k for wave 4 to complete; it hit 77k, pretty close.
So last time, I was wrestling with two different dates for a cycle top; the first one was May 2025, and the second was September 2025.
It is clear to me now that mid to late September 2025, Bitcoin will peak at around 200k. It could go slightly higher, but the 185-200k region has a higher outcome.
So, I've been using this small-time Fib, and last time when we hit the 0.618, it was the breakout week for Bitcoin from the long range. We're here again; this week is the big pivot and start of wave 5.
The hash ribbon has confirmed a buy signal, and more importantly, it flashed buy in my Time Fibonacci week. Amazing. If you've been with me for years, you already know that this is the best signal for Bitcoin there is. It is so damn good; this gives so much more weight to my thesis.
Stars seem to align again. They constantly try to shake you out; this is the game. Who is going to fade the hash ribbon buy? It's been the easiest play time and time again.
Seriously, though, for just a moment—are you really going to fade the hash ribbon? :)
BTC vs Gold at a Critical Support – Bounce or Breakdown?📊 Weekly Chart Analysis – BLX/GOLD (Bitcoin to Gold Ratio)
📉 Current Price: 25.90
Price is sitting at a key support zone, aligned with the ascending trendline (green).
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (26.47) from the full impulse move (8.35 → 37.67) is being tested.
The 200-week MA is also nearby, adding strength to this support area.
🔍 Indicators:
MACD (Weekly):
Still bearish, with a confirmed downward crossover.
No visible bullish divergences yet — bearish sentiment persists.
RSI:
Hovering near 40 — not oversold but approaching the zone.
Room for further downside, but also potential for a bounce from oversold conditions.
Stochastic RSI & Momentum:
Stoch RSI is bottomed out, suggesting a possible upside reversal.
Volume is declining on the sell-off — a possible sign of seller exhaustion.
🧠 Market Structure:
The overall pattern resembles a rising wedge, potentially broken to the downside.
However, price is now retesting the bottom of a long-term parallel channel — a historically favorable zone for long entries.
🧭 Possible Scenarios:
📈 Reversal & Bounce Holding 25–26 support, Stoch RSI reversal Medium-High
📉 Break to 20–23 Failure to hold Fibonacci & trendline Medium
⚠️ Sharp Drop to 15–20 Only if BTC crashes or gold rallies hard Low
🟢 Summary:
Price is at a critical confluence zone: Fibonacci, horizontal support, trendline, and oscillators all align here. A bounce is likely unless this level is decisively broken. If it holds, this may be a strong mid-term long entry signal.
R/Bitcoin deleted this chart. $bitcoin $btcI've been making TA for 8 years now on this Asset and r/bitcoin removed my post from the subreddit. The risk to reward isn't as favorable. I think we push to 160k at best. But I'm out for now 100k ain't bad.
Bitcoin 1-Year Pattern- The art of trading lies in analyzing the past to anticipate the future.
On the yearly timeframe, BTC has consistently followed this cycle:
- 1 year of bearish decline.🟥.
- 1 year of consolidation and bottoming out.🟩.
- 1 year of steady growth.🟩.
- 1 year of explosive upward movement.🟩.
based simply on that :
- 2025 is poised to be a breakout year for BTC.
- 2026 should be the next bear market.
- Everything changes, nothing lasts forever, but as a trader, you must stay on course.
- Don't let market noise shake your confidence.
Happy Tr4Ding !
CIRCLE OF MARKET - THE ELLIOT WAVEElliott Wave is a technical analysis theory used to predict future asset price movements. This theory was developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott, an American accountant and author in the 1930s.
This theory is based on the assumption that asset price movements are influenced by the psychological conditions of market players.
Elliott Wave Types
Impulse waves or motive waves, occur in the same direction as the trend
Corrective waves or diagonal waves, occur after passing through five waves in one motive wave cycle.
Elliott Wave Rules
Wave 2 should not reverse the price beyond the start of wave 1.
Wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave among waves 1, 3, and 5
Wave 4 must not overlap with the price area of wave 1.
Bitcoin’s Next Move: Will $65K Be the Ultimate Buy Zone?Bitcoin has been trading within a rising channel formation since January 2024. The initial bullish expansion led to a breakout above this channel, where price traded for a while before ultimately breaking back below.
This rejection back into the channel is a bearish signal, increasing the probability of Bitcoin testing the lower boundary of this structure. Despite attempts to reclaim the channel, price action has continued to show weakness, with bearish retests leading to further downside. Additionally, Bitcoin has backtested the value area low resistance from the volume profile pull spanning from November 2024 to the present, reinforcing the ongoing bearish structure.
Currently, Bitcoin is displaying consecutive lower highs and lower lows, confirming the bearish trend on the higher time frame. If the value area low of this range is not reclaimed, the probability of a full rotation toward range low support at $65,000 increases significantly. This area represents a strong buy opportunity for traders looking for a high-probability long setup.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin is trading within a high time frame range, with bearish structure prevailing.
- A breakdown toward $65,000 is likely if value area low resistance is not reclaimed.
- Swing traders should wait for an optimal entry at the range boundaries for better risk-to-
reward (RR).
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently in the middle of its trading range, meaning day trading opportunities exist for those who can execute precision entries on lower time frames. However, for swing traders, the logical approach is to wait for a clearer risk-to-reward (RR) setup—either at the range high for shorts or the range low for longs.
The $65,000 level remains a key area to watch, as testing this support is likely to lead to a strong bounce, offering a better swing long opportunity. Given the current market structure, patience is key in positioning for the next major move.
Hope this analysis helps.
The Bitcoin Google trends wedge pattern. Good day traders & investors,
Is the Google trends search for Bitcoin about to explode ?! The chart pattern is a bullish one. The Google trend search topped out back in 2017 and has been in a wedge pattern since then. The search/interest recently broke out of this 8 year wedge pattern and this month retested the breakout. This is typically a bullish pattern and shows the interest and search volume is picking up and could very soon explode again.
The settings for this search was world wide , bitcoin and a custom time interval set from Jan 1st 2009 to Mar 19th 2025
Since inception the interest for Bitcoin gained volume/growth until it peaked in 2017. Ever since then the interest and searches has been making lower lower highs until very recently (last Oct) where it made a higher high as it broke out of this wedge. Also, since 2017 while making lower highs the google trend has been making higher lows, thus forming this wedge pattern. The break out and retest of this pattern is what shows the signs of strength and a possible explosion of interest in the near future.
I have underlaid both timelines of the price and the Google trend to match, and we can clearly see that when the search trend rises, so does the price which shows a strong correlation.
All of my other cycle analysis shows that May/June time could see higher prices, so you could say this is a sneak peak or confluence to other indicators.
Let me know what you think in the comments below what you think. Does Google trend holds any weight? Do you think this wedge pattern and break out could lead to anything big?
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Kind regards,
WeAreSatoshi
