The Final Parabola: What History Says About Bitcoin’s July MovesIf you’ve been following here for a while, you know we’ve been nearly pinpoint in calling all the moves for Bitcoin. The altcoin market, not so much, but check out previous TAs to catch up on my perspective.
The two wave counts you see on the main chart have been in place for many months, I believe since around October 2024. As you can see, things have been playing out perfectly so far. The four year cycle continues to follow its path.
If the same thing happens this cycle like the last two, we should see a top sometime between October and December 2025, anywhere from 185K to 225K, followed by a cycle low somewhere around 48K in October 2026.
Bitcoin’s Julys
Every July during the 4th cycle year, Bitcoin begins its final parabolic run. This has happened without fail since the beginning of the Bitcoin Index chart. July consistently marks a major bottom, and then it's off to the races. The “only up” period that follows typically lasts 4 to 6 months and happens just once every four years like clockwork.
Here we are once again, the 4th year of the cycle, in July. Bitcoin has just hit all time highs and we've had a Hash Ribbon buy signal.
The perfect storm is brewing. Like always, the stars align in the second half of the 4th year of the Bitcoin cycle.
Time Cycles and Fibs
Looking at this time wave chart, we can see that every two waves like clockwork have marked a top. The next major wave appears to land in December 2025.
If we zoom into this smaller time wave, it has pinpointed the bottom of every small wave so far. The fact that we are once again at a bottom in July during the 4th year of the Bitcoin cycle is just another sign of the magical stars aligning.
This smaller Fibonacci sequence I’ve been tracking has already hit twice and predicted two major moves. The next dates to watch are August 2025 and January 2026.
There’s plenty of talk about an extended cycle. But during the last bull run, many traders and analysts said the same thing. In the end, Bitcoin topped out at exactly the same timeframe as the previous cycles.
If we reach the top of this model in Q4 2025, and we see a Pi Cycle Top signal along with a Mayer Multiple over 2.0, that will be our trigger.
If you've been sidelined this entire time, it's now or never. You don’t want to be the one buying in at 185K in Q4 2025 when everyone is calling for a million dollars. The time to act is now.
BLX trade ideas
Running flat? Weekly chart wave analysisA running flat is where the B wave exceeds the starting point of wave A and the subsequent drop of wave C does not exceed the wave A low. Also note the declining volume and bearish divergence with the RSI on the weekly (and monthly) chart suggesting this move up is losing momentum.
Livermore’s Speculative Blueprint: Are We Near the Final Act?Livermore’s Speculative Blueprint: Are We Near the Final Act?
Bitcoin’s price action since 2022 eerily mirrors Jesse Livermore’s legendary “Speculative Chart,” a timeless model of market psychology and price behavior. The attached overlay illustrates how BTC has respected nearly every phase—accumulation, markup, reaction, and reaccumulation—leading us to what might be the most explosive stage yet: the vertical move from Point 8 to 10.
📈 The Setup So Far:
• Points 1 to 7: Clear accumulation and steady breakout patterns within a widening mouth structure—exactly as Livermore described.
• Point 8 (Now?): BTC breaks out of the upper resistance line, aligning with Livermore’s “all-important action” area.
• What’s Next? Point 9 and 10—typically a euphoric, parabolic blow-off top before distribution sets in.
🧠 Psychology Meets Price
Each leg of this journey isn’t just about price—it’s about crowd behavior:
• From fear to disbelief (Points 1–3),
• Hope to confidence (Points 4–6),
• And now possibly greed turning into euphoria (Points 8–10).
🕰️ Historical Echoes?
If BTC truly follows Livermore’s script, we may be entering the final markup before the inevitable distribution and reversal.
🧭 Key Levels to Watch:
• 200K+ may represent the speculative climax.
• A rejection from that zone could initiate Points 11–14, characterized by distribution and eventual breakdown.
• Long-term holders: brace for volatility.
• Traders: this is where legends are made—or unmade.
⸻
📌 Final Thought:
This isn’t just TA. It’s a battle between emotion and logic, euphoria and fear, and it’s playing out on the grandest digital stage of our time. Will Bitcoin complete the Livermore pattern? Bookmark this chart, follow the story, and let’s find out.
BTC reached the local peak? 👀#Bitcoin distance from BMS
Below is the oscillator, which shows how far the price has moved away from the bull market support. Mostly when we are in the 2-3 year of the cycle, the mark on the oscillator 40 acts as resistance, which indicates a mid-cycle peak.
Can it be different this time?🤔
Let's imagine that the CRYPTOCAP:BTC ETF inflow will be greater and distort the situation, in this case, we have a second trend line that indicates a global peak, which, by the way, becomes lower every cycle, now this mark is around ~50 on the oscillator or 80k on the price chart. You can consider this mark a best-case scenario for a local peak.
💡Remember, a good investor does not rely on one scenario but is ready for any.
BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL - Markets are Ready to PUMP Again! At the 4th of July, the Independence Day, the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" was signed into law by President Trump. In this idea I want to take a closer look at some points of this law and explain why I consider it VERY bullish for most of financial markets, and especially for crypto.
Here are some key points of the law:
Raises the U.S. debt ceiling by $5 trillion, the largest single increase in U.S. history
Makes many Trump-era 2017 tax cuts permanent: keeps lower individual tax rates, preserves expanded standard deduction, retains corporate tax rate at 21%
Introduces new tax breaks: increases Child Tax Credit, exempts tips, overtime, and Social Security from federal income tax (with limitations)
Adds ~$150 billion to defense and another $150 billion toward border enforcement, including massive ICE budget increase
Trims SNAP food aid by ~$186–200 billion, tightening eligibility (e.g. raising work‑requirement age)
What changes can happen in the economy? Big tax breaks combined with increased expenses cause the growth of financial deficit, the projected by CBO deficit can reach $3 trillion. In this situation the only solution is increasing the national debt which makes Interest Rates climb higher (Yale’s Budget Lab forecasts a 1.2 pp increase in the 10‑year yield).
Why do I think this is bullish for most of stocks and mainly for crypto?
The increase of debt ceiling has always had a positive impact on the crypto and namely on $BTC. The best example is Fiscal Responsibility Act that was signed back in June 5, 2023. This act increased the debt ceiling for +$4.7 billion, after that Bitcoin surged upwards from $25,000 to $75,000 in ~half a year. Similar outcome can be expected now too.
Market perceives U.S. fiscal loosening as inflationary and dollar-weakening, making Bitcoin (as a decentralized and limited-supply asset) more attractive. TVC:DXY has already shown signs of weakness.
Large deficits often force future monetary easing or Fed bond buying to absorb debt. Lower interest rates and more liquidity are historically bullish for risk assets, including crypto.
Rising yields and bond sell-offs spook traditional markets. In this situation, Bitcoin becomes an attractive uncorrelated hedge for portfolios amid volatility in traditional assets.
To sum up , I believe the Big Beautiful Law is, to put it mildly, not good for US economy. However, local effects on stock & crypto markets can be considered positive for investors & traders. With this said, I believe we can expect CRYPTOCAP:BTC to reach $150,000 goal this year and mark this milestone as an ATH for the current bull cycle.
Hash rate capitulationThe hash rate capitulation (HRC) indicator used in the Bitcoin Bottom Indictor (BBI) has fired. The HRC indicator measures the rate of change of the hash rate. Steadily increasing hash rate is a sign of health of the bitcoin network. This indicator uses moving averages (20- and 100-day) of the hash rate to indicate when a decrease in the rate of change is has occurred (i.e., the 20-day MA goes below the 100-day MA). This indicator triggers when the 20-day moving average of the hash rate going below the 100-day moving average. In the past, this indicator has detected local and macro cycle bottoms. It does fire more often than most other bottom indicators, so take it with a grain of salt.
Bitcoin Log Regression 👀#Bitcoin Log Regression 👀
The orange line, as in the previous cycle, offers strong resistance.
💡I think CRYPTOCAP:BTC will stay at the current mark for another month. After that, we go to the correction, most likely it will not be a deep correction, but rather a consolidation.
This is indicated by overbought and seasonality.
⛏️ And also the capitulation of miners after the halving is possible, this will lead to a decrease in the hashrate, which will slow down the growth for some time. But do not be sad, the bull market will continue closer to autumn↗️
Bitcoin: Higher Degree Wave DimensionsA new long-term pattern has been identified. Essentially a stretched version of the chart shown here:
This resemblance holds to some extent, as the coordinates are anchored to relatively longer cycles:https://www.tradingview.com/x/PUxSDlLx/
Publishing this one in raw form (intentionally minimal) just to document a recurring structure across extended timeframes.
Bearish Logaritmic Regression AnalysisResume
This advanced logarithmic regression predicts we are about to reach top in the middle-late June. To start a bearish long term trend.
Discussion Analysis:
To extrapolate the current logarithmic regression trend. I tried to fit a sinusoidal wave to the logarithmic regression trend. The fitted Sin Wave is in dotted purple color when LogReg Trend is in green (bullish) phase right now. The logarithmic regression also is applied as deviation factors in Fibonacci channel terms (green and red transparent bands in the background).
Current status: we are already in a red (should sell) Fib. area which is a high risk scenario in the Log Reg. A higher risk region would be seen if the price pass to the last red section, where we would see the highest volatility for this cycle, before sudden, sharp declines.
I don't think we will reach the highest section of the Fibonacci Log. Reg. Channels. The only way we still could get there is if the fundamentals change dramatically: If FED drops the rates, if Trump stops the market wars, etc. Nobody knows. I think that may play out maybe at the end of the summer.
DISCLAIMER
This is not financial advice. I own several cryptocurrencies. This is only my mere opinion. Do your own research!
Good Luck.
Thor.
BITCOIN IS A SOLVED GAME. AND I SOLVED IT WITH 1 FIB PULLOne single fib pull to rule them all. From top to bottom in 2018 we can clearly see how many significant levels we get:
The 2.236 level gives us the first ATH in 2021. After that we face a 30% pullback.
The 3.618 level gives us the 63k top in 2021, again to the absolute dollar.
The 4.236 level gives us the first ATH of 2024, after which we faced 230+ days of sideway nothingness.
The 6.236 level gives us the exact ATH at the end of 2024
Following the logic of these numbers the next levels we should look for are: 7.618 and 8.236
Inverse DXY 3-months forward suggests Bitcoin top early JulyInverse 3-months forward DXY (blue) seems to guide Bitcoin, and if the current DXY low holds, Bitcoin might top in early July. This idea is corroborated by The 2024-2028 Bitcoin cycle in grey, which bottomed and topped out within a similar timespan. It is also confirmed by Lars von Thienen's observation, that Bitcoin has 5 200D cycles each bull run www.youtube.com
Predicting the Next Bitcoin 200MA Peak Using Exponential DecayIn my ongoing study of Bitcoin market cycles, I noticed a compelling pattern in the behavior of the 200-day moving average (200MA) across bull markets. Specifically, I observed that the percentage rise of the 200MA from each cycle bottom to cycle top is decreasing over time, and this decline follows an exponential decay pattern.
Historical Observations:
• 2015 Cycle Bottom to 2017 Peak:
The 200MA increased by approximately +686%
• 2018 Cycle Bottom to 2021 Peak:
The 200MA increased by approximately +450%
This pattern suggested to me that the next peak in the 200MA might continue this decaying trajectory. To estimate this, I applied a simple exponential decay model using the two previous data points:
y(t) = A.e^{-kt}
Solving for the next value (t = 2), the model predicts an approximate increase of +296% in the 200MA from the current cycle bottom to the expected peak.
Implication for the Current Cycle:
Assuming the 200MA bottomed around $16,200, a +296% rise implies a target 200MA near:
$16,200 x (1 + 2.96) is approx. $64,000
This aligns remarkably well with the 2021 bull market top, reinforcing the idea that the previous all-time high (~ GETTEX:64K –$69K) could serve as a strong macro support level once this cycle matures.
Conclusion:
If this exponential decay pattern continues, we can expect the 200MA to peak around $64,000 during the current bull cycle. This target also coincides with historical resistance turned potential support, making it a critical level for long-term investors and swing traders alike.
This type of decay-based modeling, while not exact, offers a unique lens through which we can assess Bitcoin’s macro behavior across cycles. I’ll continue to monitor how this projection plays out and refine the model with new data as the market evolves.
Bitcoin price according to the Bitcoin Liquidity IndexThe Bitcoin bull market from its low in January 2015 to its high in December 2017 lasted 1064 days and the price rose from $163.88 to $19,764.51.
The Bitcoin bull market from its low in December 2018 to its high in November 2021 took 1064 days and the price rose from $3,211.19 to $68,944.62.
If this is repeated, the Bitcoin bull market from its low of $15,804.43 in November 2022 will find its high of $500,000 or more in October 2025, which Bitcoin could easily do if you look at 2017, for example.
BTCUSD vs. M2 Supply - It's HOT Right Now!🔥 BTCUSD vs. M2 Supply 💸📈 – It’s HOT Right Now! 🔥
Everybody has been posting M2/btc charts. Here's mine:
I roughly averaged the trends for PRE and POST-lockdowns MARCH 2020 for both global M2 and bitcoin. Bitcoin is on a log trend so that it can keep up with how absurd the money printing is. Even so, M2 is currently out-pacing bitcoin's trend, so something has to break.
M2 is charted against 3 months lag.
This graph is highly experimental and for reference only.