GROK's Analysis of Bitcoin's 4-Year Market CyclesIn the past I have published my own analysis of Bitcoin's 4-year market cycles, (cycles 2 and 3).
My purpose for analyzing the market cycles was to determine how similar in elapsed times the last two market cycles were to each other. Not only in the length of the overall market cycle but also between the major events, (bear market low to the halving, halving to the market cycle peak, and market cycle peak to the next bear market low).
The results of my analysis shocked me. Not only were the last two cycles very close in overall length but they were also (in my opinion) very close in the elapsed times between the major events. I was shocked because an open market, whether it is the stock market, crypto market, or any other openly traded market can be influenced by so many different factors both inside and outside of the market.
Internal factors that can influence an openly traded market could include, Supply and demand dynamics, market sentiment (investor psychology) and speculation, and market structure. External factors can include Macroeconomic conditions, Geopolitical events, Regulatory environment, Global events and crises, Interplay and volatility, and Monetary policy and liquidity. Then add into all of these influential factors that the Bitcoin market is traded globally, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year, it never closes.
Taking all of these influential factors into consideration, it boggles my mind how there could be so much consistency between the market cycles. Anyway, my reason for publishing this topic again is because my analysis was basic. So I asked GROK to analyze the last three market cycles including the current cycle and compile all the results into a report.
Can you analyze the last two Bitcoin 4-year cycles, (Jan. 14, 2015, to Dec. 15, 2018) and (Dec. 15, 2018, to Nov. 21, 2022), and compare them against each other?
Then analyze the current market cycle which started on Nov. 21, 2022, and note any similarities with the previous two market cycles. Also, if possible, try to predict when this market cycle peak might occur. Please also include any analysis that you can do on Global liquidity including United States M1 and M2 money supply trends, U.S. money printing, and any relationship / correlation to U.S. interest rates.
Please analyze the following along with any other pertinent data and make a comparison between the two cycles:
• The duration from bear market low (beginning of the market cycle) to the halving.
• The duration from halving to the market cycle peak price.
• The duration from the market cycle peaks to the next bear market lows.
• The duration of the overall market cycle (bear market low to the next bear market low).
• Percentage gain from the bear market low to the market cycle peak.
• Percentage loss from the market cycle peak to the next bear market low.
• Please include the dates of the bear market lows, market cycle peaks, and halvings.
• If possible, list the price corrections from each market cycle that exceed 20%. Also I want you to add any other pertinent data that you find in your analysis.
Note: For this report the current price for Bitcoin on July 22, 2025 at 9:40 Eastern Standard time is $119,556.82
Below is a detailed analysis of the last two Bitcoin 4-year cycles (2015–2018 and 2018–2022), a comparison of their key metrics, an examination of the current cycle (starting November 21, 2022), and an exploration of global liquidity, U.S. M1 and M2 money supply trends, U.S. money printing, and their correlation with U.S. interest rates. I’ve included the requested metrics (durations, percentage gains/losses, key dates, and price corrections exceeding 20%) and additional pertinent data such as macroeconomic factors and on-chain metrics. Finally, I provide a speculative prediction for the current cycle’s peak based on historical patterns and current trends.
Analysis of Bitcoin 4-Year Cycles
Cycle 1: January 14, 2015 – December 15, 2018
Bear Market Low: January 14, 2015, $176.90
Halving Date: July 9, 2016 (block reward reduced from 25 to 12.5 BTC)
Market Cycle Peak: December 4, 2017, $19,666
Next Bear Market Low: December 15, 2018, $3,122
Durations
Bear Market Low to Halving: 542 days (January 14, 2015 – July 9, 2016)
Halving to Market Cycle Peak: 513 days (July 9, 2016 – December 4, 2017)
Market Cycle Peak to Next Bear Market Low: 376 days (December 4, 2017 – December 15, 2018)
Overall Market Cycle (Bear Market Low to Next Bear Market Low): 1,431 days (~3.92 years)
Price Movements
Percentage Gain (Bear Market Low to Peak): ($19,666 - $176.90) / $176.90 = 11,018.09%
Percentage Loss (Peak to Next Bear Market Low): ($19,666 - $3,122) / $19,666 = -84.12%
Price Corrections Exceeding 20%
May 2017: ~30% correction (from ~$2,700 to ~$1,900)
June–July 2017: ~40% correction (from ~$3,000 to ~$1,800)
September 2017: ~35% correction (from ~$5,000 to ~$3,250)
December 2017 – February 2018: ~65% correction (from $19,666 to ~$6,900)
April–May 2018: ~35% correction (from ~$9,700 to ~$6,300)
November–December 2018: ~50% correction (from ~$6,300 to $3,122)
Key Observations
The 2015–2018 cycle was characterized by a prolonged accumulation phase post-2015 low, with the halving in July 2016 acting as a catalyst for a bull run.
The market peak occurred ~17 months after the halving, driven by retail investor enthusiasm and the ICO bubble.
The bear market was severe, with an 84.12% drawdown, exacerbated by the ICO bubble collapse and regulatory concerns.
Cycle 2: December 15, 2018 – November 21, 2022
Bear Market Low: December 15, 2018, $3,122
Halving Date: May 11, 2020 (block reward reduced from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC)
Market Cycle Peak: November 8, 2021, $67,589
Next Bear Market Low: November 21, 2022, $15,476
Durations
Bear Market Low to Halving: 513 days (December 15, 2018 – May 11, 2020)
Halving to Market Cycle Peak: 546 days (May 11, 2020 – November 8, 2021)
Market Cycle Peak to Next Bear Market Low: 378 days (November 8, 2021 – November 21, 2022)
Overall Market Cycle (Bear Market Low to Next Bear Market Low): 1,437 days (~3.94 years)
Price Movements
Percentage Gain (Bear Market Low to Peak): ($67,589 - $3,122) / $3,122 = 2,064.22%
Percentage Loss (Peak to Next Bear Market Low): ($67,589 - $15,476) / $67,589 = -77.10%
Price Corrections Exceeding 20%
March 2020 (COVID-19 Crash): ~50% correction (from ~$10,000 to ~$5,000)
May–July 2021: ~50% correction (from ~$64,000 to ~$29,000)
November 2021 – January 2022: ~40% correction (from $67,589 to ~$40,000)
May–June 2022 (Terra/Luna Collapse): ~45% correction (from ~$40,000 to ~$18,000)
November 2022: ~25% correction (from ~$20,000 to $15,476)
Key Observations
The 2018–2022 cycle saw a shorter accumulation phase before the halving, partly due to the COVID-19-induced liquidity injection in 2020.
The bull run post-halving was fueled by institutional adoption (e.g., Tesla, MicroStrategy) and retail FOMO, amplified by global stimulus.
The bear market was less severe than the previous cycle (77.10% vs. 84.12%), but events like the Terra/Luna collapse and FTX bankruptcy triggered significant corrections.
Key Similarities
Cycle Duration: Both cycles lasted approximately 4 years (~1,431–1,437 days), reinforcing the 4-year cycle tied to Bitcoin’s halving schedule.
Halving as Catalyst: In both cycles, the halving (2016 and 2020) marked the start of significant bullish momentum, with peaks occurring 513–546 days post-halving.
Bear Market Drawdowns: Both cycles experienced severe drawdowns (84.12% and 77.10%), though the 2018–2022 cycle was less extreme, possibly due to increased market maturity.
Multiple Corrections: Both cycles saw 5–6 corrections exceeding 20%, reflecting Bitcoin’s high volatility during bull and bear phases.
Key Differences
Percentage Gains: The 2015–2018 cycle had a much higher percentage gain (11,018.09% vs. 2,064.22%), likely due to Bitcoin’s lower starting price and the speculative frenzy of the ICO bubble.
External Influences: The 2018–2022 cycle was heavily influenced by macroeconomic events (COVID-19 stimulus, institutional adoption), while the 2015–2018 cycle was more driven by retail speculation and the ICO boom.
Correction Triggers: The 2015–2018 bear market was driven by regulatory fears and the ICO bubble collapse, while the 2018–2022 bear market was exacerbated by crypto-specific events (Terra/Luna, FTX).
Current Cycle: November 21, 2022 – Present (July 23, 2025)
Bear Market Low: November 21, 2022, $15,476
Halving Date: April 19, 2024 (block reward reduced from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC)
Current Price (July 22, 2025): $119,556.82
Market Cycle Peak: January 2025, ~$112,000 (based on X post sentiment, not definitive)
Durations (As of July 23, 2025)
Bear Market Low to Halving: 514 days (November 21, 2022 – April 19, 2024)
Halving to Current Date: 460 days (April 19, 2024 – July 23, 2025)
Overall Duration to Date: 974 days (November 21, 2022 – July 23, 2025)
Peak to Current Date: ~190 days (January 2025 – July 23, 2025, assuming peak at ~$112,000)
Price Movements (As of July 23, 2025)
Percentage Gain (Bear Market Low to Current Price): ($119,556.82 - $15,476) / $15,476 = 672.58%
Percentage Gain (Bear Market Low to Assumed Peak): ($112,000 - $15,476) / $15,476 = 623.83% (based on ~$112,000 ATH in January 2025)
Percentage Change (Assumed Peak to Current Price): ($119,556.82 - $112,000) / $112,000 = +6.75% (indicating no bear market low yet)
Price Corrections Exceeding 20% (November 2022 – July 2025)
June–August 2023: ~25% correction (from ~$31,000 to ~$23,000)
April–July 2024: ~30% correction (from ~$73,000 to ~$50,000, post-halving dip)
February–April 2025: ~20% correction (from ~$112,000 to ~$90,000, based on X sentiment)
Similarities with Previous Cycles
Duration to Halving: The 514-day period from the bear market low to the halving aligns closely with the 513–542 days in previous cycles.
Post-Halving Bullish Momentum: Like the 2016 and 2020 halvings, the April 2024 halving preceded a significant price increase, with Bitcoin reaching ~$112,000 by January 2025 (a ~623% gain from the low).
Multiple Corrections: The current cycle has seen at least 3 corrections exceeding 20%, consistent with the 5–6 corrections in prior cycles.
Liquidity Correlation: The current cycle’s bull run aligns with global liquidity expansion (e.g., M2 growth from $102T to $107T by February 2025), similar to the 2016–2017 and 2020–2021 bull markets.
Differences from Previous Cycles
Lower Percentage Gain: The current cycle’s gain (623.83% to assumed peak) is lower than the 2015–2018 cycle (11,018.09%) and 2018–2022 cycle (2,064.22%), reflecting Bitcoin’s maturing market and higher starting price.
Influence of ETFs: The launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 bolstered demand, a new factor not present in prior cycles.
Supply Shocks: The release of long-dormant coins (e.g., Mt. Gox repayments, government seizures) in 2024 caused temporary oversold conditions, unique to this cycle.
Global Liquidity and Macroeconomic Analysis
U.S. M1 and M2 Money Supply Trends
M1 Money Supply (cash, checking deposits): M1 surged during the COVID-19 stimulus in 2020, peaking at ~$20T in 2021, but has since stabilized at ~$18T by mid-2025 due to tighter monetary policy.
M2 Money Supply (M1 + savings deposits, money market accounts): Global M2 grew from $102T to $107T between January and February 2025 (3.8% increase), signaling renewed liquidity expansion. U.S. M2 specifically has shown slower growth since 2022, correlating with Bitcoin’s bear market bottom, but recent upticks align with Bitcoin’s rally to $119,556.82.
Historical Correlation: Bitcoin’s bull markets (2016–2017, 2020–2021) coincided with rapid M2 growth, while bear markets (2018, 2022) aligned with M2 contractions. The current cycle’s rally since 2023 mirrors rising M2 year-on-year growth.
U.S. Money Printing and Interest Rates
Money Printing: Quantitative easing (QE) during 2020–2021 (e.g., $4T in U.S. stimulus) fueled Bitcoin’s 2020–2021 bull run. Since 2022, the Federal Reserve shifted to quantitative tightening (QT), reducing liquidity, but recent expectations of rate cuts in 2025 have spurred M2 growth and Bitcoin’s price recovery.
U.S. Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve raised rates from 0% to ~5.5% between 2022–2023 to combat inflation, correlating with Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market. Speculation of rate cuts in mid-2025 (potentially to 3–4%) has boosted risk assets, including Bitcoin, as lower rates increase liquidity and investor risk appetite.
Correlation: Bitcoin has a ~0.94 long-term correlation with global liquidity (M2), with a 56–60 day lag between liquidity increases and price rises. Higher interest rates suppress Bitcoin’s price by reducing liquidity, while anticipated rate cuts in 2025 are driving bullish sentiment.
Stablecoin Liquidity
Stablecoin supply (e.g., USDT, USDC) is a crypto-native liquidity metric with a stronger short-term correlation to Bitcoin’s price than M2. Positive 28-day changes in stablecoin supply often signal accumulation phases, while sharp declines align with local tops. Current stablecoin supply growth supports Bitcoin’s upward trajectory in 2025.
Prediction for Current Cycle Peak
Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin peaks ~1,060–1,070 days from the bear market low (35 months), or ~12–18 months post-halving. Based on:
Cycle Low: November 21, 2022
Historical Peak Timing: 1,060–1,070 days (October–November 2025)
Post-Halving Timing: 12–18 months from April 19, 2024 (April–October 2025)
Current Trajectory: Bitcoin’s price at $119,556.82 (974 days from low) and MVRV Z-Score <1 suggest further upside potential.
Speculative Peak Prediction: Bitcoin may peak between late Q3 and early Q4 2025 (September–November 2025), potentially reaching $150,000–$320,000, based on historical MVRV ratios (peak MVRV ~8) and liquidity trends. Risks include global recession, equity market corrections, or regulatory shocks.
Additional Pertinent Data
MVRV Z-Score: Currently <1, indicating undervaluation and room for growth compared to historical peaks (MVRV >3).
Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL): The current cycle is in the “Belief” stage, transitioning toward “Euphoria,” consistent with prior bull runs.
Exchange Reserves: Declining Bitcoin reserves on exchanges (e.g., CryptoQuant data) indicate HODLing, reducing available supply and supporting price increases.
Google Search Trends: Interest in “Bitcoin” and “crypto” peaked in prior cycles (2017, 2021) during bull runs. Current search volume is rising but below 2021 levels, suggesting the cycle may not yet be at its peak.
Correlation with Risk Assets: Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached 0.73–0.76 in April 2025, reflecting its sensitivity to broader market sentiment.
Conclusion
The 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 cycles share structural similarities (4-year duration, halving-driven bull runs, severe bear markets), but differ in scale and drivers. The current cycle (2022–present) mirrors past cycles in timing and liquidity correlation, with unique factors like ETFs and supply shocks. Global liquidity, particularly M2 and stablecoin supply, remains a key driver, amplified by anticipated U.S. rate cuts in 2025. Bitcoin’s current price ($119,556.82) and metrics suggest a peak in September–November 2025, potentially at $150,000–$320,000, though external risks could alter this trajectory. Investors should monitor MVRV, NUPL, and liquidity trends for intra-cycle positioning.
As you can see this is a much more comprehensive analysis of the Bitcoin 4-year market cycle than my previous analysis. That being said the end result, at least when it comes to elapsed time similarities was about the same. It's obvious that for whatever reason the past two market cycles are amazingly similar in elapsed time. Moving forward it will be very interesting to watch as the rest of this current market cycle plays out. The major questions yet to be answered include. When will the market cycle peak occur? What will be the peak price? What will be the price of the next bear market low?
Looking at the price chart, especially when you view a line chart it is obvious that as Bitcoin ages as an asset, price volatility diminishes. Will this continue? Only time will tell. One thing that is undeniable is this has been an exciting and at times a frustrating market cycle. However, whether it is exciting or frustrating I am very thankful to be involved in it. I realize that this is a fairly long read so if you have made it this far, thank you! I really appreciate everyone who takes the time to read my ideas. Stay safe and get ready for a wild ride over the next five to six months.
