harmonizing fundamental analysis and technical analysis By harmonizing the waves of market psychology with the fundamentals of economic reality,we can unlock the rhythm of the market.. riding the waves of opportunity while navigating the currents of uncertainty... so elliot gives u insight into market psychology in a booming market and deep understanding of economic realities keeps u well grounded. harmonizing both of these can make u exceptional trader with excellent win : loss , profit :risk and sharpeys ratio.
always rwemember this trading idea is never really a chart based idea... the idea u generate for trade starts from worldview > sectoral view > security analysis (stock analysis) > chart.
so chart is only for execution of the generated idea. its not really a tool for trading idea generation. Most makes this mistake and lose the money.
or in better words executing a fundamental idea on chart using an adjusted technical personalized wave method.
Please remove spaces to see charts and see effectiveness of it.
https:// www. tradingview. com/x/dzZHgmoc/
https:// www .tradingview. com/x/AVyakcD1/
https:// www. tradingview. com/x/wQydBzIZ/
https:// www. tradingview. com/x/NO0hNFbX/
https:// ibb .co/9bYQYyr link of a chart image hosted online
BLX trade ideas
Bitcoin RoadMap 2024/2025The thesis I will present today will go over the idea that Bitcoin will repeat its first cycle over a longer length of time. There are a lot of theories on where Bitcoin is going next, and it's been interesting seeing so many different perspectives.
Every 4 years, Bitcoin follows through with its cycle, and we are now in the 4th cycle. So, what if it repeats the first cycle?
The first cycle is a interesting one , we had two tops, one big move followed by a 75% correction and after 231days we put in a higher high.
Last cycle nearly every single logarithmic model I was using broke expect the one you see in the main chart above, I know every model breaks eventually but until then we will base are projections around it.
The fact is there is not much room left from here , if Bitcoin repeats the same move and time then we looking at July at around 113k for a major 2024 top , for over 500 days now Bitcoin has been moving 100% every 120-140 days with the last move only taking 50days.
What is interesting is it took 1200days from Pi cycle cross to cross , if it repeats the next cross is in July and a my projected cross which will most likely not be very accurate since moving averages will move a lot depending on price but late October 2024 would be the cross.
Monthly RSI is the lowest its ever been in history coming back into all time high.
2Week RSI putting in nearly perfect lower highs since the start.
Bitcoin all time high consolidation pattern looking like it did last cycle in 2020 when it was back at 20k.
Looking over at my time cycles , it takes 1400days from cycle top to top this would put a cycle high in September 2025 from November 2021. It also lines up with my time fib in September 2025.
Elliott wave indicator is flashing a wave 5 both of NAS100 and Bitcoin , as you can see by going back in time its not 100% perfect and calling the top but pretty close most of the time , as you can see last cycle it was off by 3 weekly candles.
We are making lower highs on the Weekly and higher highs in price so bearish divergence could be forming here.
stochastic RSI pointing down and MACD histogram printing two lighter colours but as you can see stochastic last bullrun we were going down the entire time Bitcoin was going up.
Conclusion
There are some warning signs but there weak compared to the bullish signs , candle structure is still making lower highs from 4hour upwards and we forming same pattern as we did last cycle before massive run.
This is how I think it plays out , last phase of the first run is coming until end of July then massive correction into end of year and continuation of the bull run till cycle top September 2025.
The monthly on btcusd.The March Candle closes with approximately +16%, creating a price structure above the previous historical high drawn in 2021. A very strong signal regarding the long term, this favors the bulls in trying to snatch convenient prices until the short period will allow it by correcting on the most important supports. The last price structure that could act as support is in the 58k USD area, although between 63k and 61k USD there is another interesting area. What is striking is the fact that only in the January candle there was a correction, so looking at the fractal you notice similarities more with the bullish movement of 2016/17 than with the previous one 2020/21. Perhaps a new paradigm given that the main players in this market have changed.
Bitcoin Liquid Index Gann Square & EW CountHere I made an elliot wave count, this is a complete wave assuming the 5th wave is short like in 2013/2014.
I will look into making an alternate count that shows one more 5th wave to go before a major correction like 2014/2018... Or unlike we've seen in bitcoin history? 60k-1k???
Well no need to get too excited, time will tell which way we're going and it's too soon to say for sure.
BTC - Psychology of a Market CycleIn this analysis, I endeavor to elucidate the dynamics of market sentiment and investor psychology as reflected in the price action of Bitcoin. Drawing from past interactions and observations on social media platforms, I aim to integrate qualitative insights with quantitative data derived from Bitcoin price charts. By doing so, I seek to provide a nuanced understanding of how various market emotions manifest and influence Bitcoin's price movements across different phases of its market cycle.
Please note that the following assessment is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or a recommendation to purchase any investment product. Investors should carefully consider their own risk tolerance and financial situation before making any investment decisions.
Unveiling the Power of RSI's Hidden Bullish Divergence.Greetings, friends and speculators.
Let's take a moment to examine the Crypto King's relationship with the 2-month RSI indicator.
The RSI has proven itself as a powerful tool, accurately identifying the exact bottom on three separate occasions.
During the bear market lows of 2015, 2018, and 2022, a hidden bullish divergence emerged, signaling the conclusion of the downtrend and the initiation of a new "Mark Up" Phase.
Interestingly, there has been an approximately 20% increase in the duration between these hidden bullish divergences. If we extrapolate this trend to the current period, we might anticipate a market bottom around July 2027.
However, approach this prediction with caution, past performance does not guarantee future returns.
To confirm a valid Hidden Bullish Divergence, the bulls need to maintain the price above the 2022 lows while ensuring that the RSI makes a lower low.
Apart from indicating market bottoms, the RSI indicator also aids in pinpointing optimal exit points. Notably, RSI levels surpassing 90 historically denoted the conclusion of the bull run.
With the current RSI hovering around the 70 mark, it suggests that the bulls still possess plenty of ammunition as they advance further.
I should note that RSI has made a lower high during the last 2 market tops, one could assume that a lower high in this bull frenzy would fail to penetrate the 90+ level.
If you recall my BTC post from September 2021, I advised bulls to start dollar-cost averaging into positions. At that time, BTC was experiencing an "Accumulation" phase, and it's clear that we've transitioned into a "MarkUp" phase now.
As we approach the final Bitcoin halving, there is no doubt that an interesting time is upon us.
To all those who weathered the brutal bear market, I salute you.
Much Love & Good Luck!
SPECUALTIVE SETUP, DYOR + DD.
What is Hidden Bullish Divergence?
A hidden bullish divergence is a setup where the oscillator forms lower lows at the same time that the price is forming higher lows. This setup is frequently seen in situations where the price has been in consolidation or has performed a pullback from an uptrend.
What is RSI?
The Relative Strength Index, or RSI for short, is one of the most popular technical indicators among the trading community. It belongs to the family of oscillators, or technical tools used to determine overbought or oversold conditions. It’s used to gauge the market sentiment.
Developed by J. Welles Wilder, the RSI measures the speed and change of price movements.
A popular way of reading RSI values is to look for divergences that occur when a new high or a new low of the price isn’t confirmed by the RSI readings.
displays on a vertical range of 0 to 100.
Readings close to 0 are viewed as “oversold”, while those closer to 100 are a sign of “overbought” market conditions. Unlike some other momentum indicators, readings can’t go below 0 or higher than 100.
Unveiling Bitcoin's Potential: A Fibonacci PerspectiveThe analysis presented makes a strong case for Bitcoin's capacity to achieve a new peak in this market cycle, grounded in mathematical rigor and historical patterns. As we navigate the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency, this Fibonacci-based perspective provides a valuable framework for understanding potential future movements.
Bitcoin compared to Fear and Greed IndexHighlighting the fact that although BTC has dipped, the fear and greed has not retraced.
This suggests market sentiment is still elevated and we can expect further downside.
In all cases leading up to this dump, we saw a correction in the fear and greed index of 20+, currently we sit at a correction of only 16 pts in market sentiment.
My thesis: DOWNSIDE RISK HIGH UNTIL MARKET SENTIMENT RESETS
Re-test of Rising Wedge Breakdown May Signal TopIf Bitcoin is unable to get above the bottom of this long-term rising wedge, the top may be in when it fails to reclaim it upon re-test.
It could still go as high as 85-106k, or even higher the longer it takes to reach wedge bottom.
Given this turns out to be true, when this top is finally in we may see the deepest and longest correction in Bitcoin's history, targeting 1.5k, or even lower.
This could also be considered the makings of a double-top with a higher 2nd high, very similar to the structure of the previous ATH's double-top, but repeated on a larger scale. We may also see two attempts to re-test, just as we saw two highs last time.
A possible secondary signal that this is the likely scenario that will occur may be if the US Dollar Index continues up above its fall of 2022 highs:
Best of luck with your analyses and trading, and I hope you've found some valuable insight in the ideas we share together here.
BTC - 10 Year Time Behavior - BULLISH RALLY TO CONTINUEBased on past 10 year price behavior, BINANCE:BTCUSDT is set to continue its bullish rally until August 2025. Keep in mind there might be pull backs along the way.
Bullish and bearish rallies have been following a very similar time behavior the last 10 years, as pointed out in the chart.
Bearish rallies are averaging 12.6 months over the last 10 years.
Bullish rallies are averaging 32.5 months over the last 10 years.
WE can expect to reach the high for this bullish rally in August 2025. After August 2025, we can expect to see a pull back for 12-14 months, based on previous 10 year price action.
For now, look for Long entries on higher timeframes (Daily, 4 HR)!
If the ratio between ATH is decreasing by a half, then ....If the ratio between ATH is decreasing by a half, then i can predict the next ATH ... just math!
For this theorie, i just looked at the decreasing of percent for each all time high to the next one.
This is like x 64 ... x 32 ... x 16 (but not so accurate)
We saw a major bullrun from 0.39 USD to round about 30 USD ( ~ 77x )
We saw the next ATH at 1 143 USD ( ~ 38 x )
We saw the last ATH at 19 417 USD ( ~ 17 x )
The multiplication is cut in half each time. Because of this i predict the next 2 ATH just by using simple math:
19 417 x 8 = 155 336 USD
155 336 x 4 = 621 344 USD
In the chart, the values are not perfect because of scale, but i think you get the point ;-)
No financial advice!
I just want to leave it here and visit in 2021 and 2025 :-)
AriasWave Reality Check On BITCOIN Right Now...In this video, I unveil the truth.
It's imperative for me to express this because, in truth, we're all entangled in greed, eagerly chasing wealth.
I liken myself to the Grinch, employing every skill I possess to thwart the propagation of this misguided notion.
We're ensnared in a cycle of deceit. This isn't a bullish market; rather, we're ensnared by the ongoing Bitcoin hype.
The Toppiest Top is in the CHARTS. BTC TO 200K OCTOBER 2025The chart shows the BTC cycles - green box is the bull run which usually lasts about 1064 days from absolute bottom to new ATH. Followed by the bear market marked by a red box lasting about 364 days. The new ATH each cycle is also historically 75-78 days after halving event. A fibonacci extension drawn from absolute bottom to ATH in the 2nd cycle and from ATH to bottom, shows that the 3.382 level predicted the next ATH for the 3rd cycle. Doing the same fib extensions in the 3rd cycle give us the red circle area. These 2 fib levels combined with 78~ days post halving and 1064~ days post absolute bottom show us that around October 13 2025 we could see a new ATH at anywhere between 176k to maximum of 225k.
Bitcoin - ZOOM 🟡🚀 ZOOM 🟡🚀 ZOOM 🟡🚀 #Bitcoin
ZOOM 🟡🚀
ZOOM 🟡🚀
ZOOM 🟡🚀
Stay tuned for updates dear Crypto Nation😎
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Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion