Late Publish; Long Term Bitcoin mapThis is a technical analysis I drew up 4 years. I was not expecting much from it when first drawing it. But now I feel I should publish it for my journal as I watch the current bull run play out.
BLX trade ideas
bitcoin and economic policy there should be an indicator that adjusts all gaps on the chart, to inflation plus gaps
$BTC | Bitcoin Logarithmic Cycles and 2024 BullrunIn this chart, which I have shared previously in August 2022, I explain that we had reached our bottom back in November 2022 and would likely put in an accumulation range (green rectangle boxes) over a period of time - this has now happened exactly.
I don't mean to post this to prove I was 'right', I do it because it gives some clarity to those long-term investors (opposed to intra-day trading), that we are in fact on the right track to a fresh all time high in 2024/25.
Bitcoin briefly traded outside the lower support band of the Log curve, which was worrisome for a while, myself included. However, if we stuck to the technicals and price action, we would have quickly realized it was a deviation (which has happened before) and would prove to be the next best opportunity to get involved and buy long term positions.
This chart does not mean it is straight up from here, as in 30k Bitcoin in the near future is not off the table, in fact I think it is very much ON the table. If you're a long term investor, you don't care. You dollar cost average in at those corrections and if we get a capitulation event, ensure you have capital ready to deploy. The reason why I can confidently do this, without worrying about intra day price movement, is I know where the final destination is.
Price may hug the lower support band of the Log curve and chop around in the green box, but on average the price will be elevating itself in my opinion, such that the high time frame, macro weekly, monthly) 100/200 moving averages will be in an uptrend from here on out.
I like this chart, if provides clarity and perspective, if you don't day-trade then this is the only chart you need for Bitcoin.
Vatsik
BTCBearish div. and FVGBearish div. formed on the daily, could see one more test of it before a drop.
Big FVG formed on monthly and weekly. Expecting at least the top one to get filled in the near future.
Facts about BTC price in next Months V.2 (2023)We’ve seen 4 consecutive green candles and there is no argument for the bitcoin bullish trend. Body of candles getting smaller showing exhaustion, we might see at least couple of weeks price correction as we discussed in the channel before. There is an Evening Star candlestick pattern shaping up in the monthly time frame and I really hope that 25 k $ (MA50) keeps holding. Closing below 23200$ is in Bears favor for the short term.
**The hack of bitcoin cycle bottom that I personally worked on and shared with you is this: **
Every time bitcoin finds the cycle top, then the bottom will be equal to the Fibonacci Level of 0.869% from halving the date candle to the cycle top. This worked since the bitcoin chart was created in 2010! See the chart for a better understanding.
This is super accurate.
BTC Roadmap predictionsI have market out the BTC halvings, and taken a FibTimeZone with the 0.382 and 0.618 zones marked out.
You will notice how the tops and the bottoms are quite closely timed to the tops at the 0.382 and the bottoms at the 0.618 ratios.
This means that the next top should be around October 2025.
The fib zones above give us some targets to watch out for, and the green line shows a potential btc trajectory till we hit the top of the next cycle.
Note I based this off the last cycle - but we had the C19 scare, so the chances of it falling below the rising blue trend line after it confirms it are slim i feel.
As Much As I Hate To Say It...Bitcoin is starting to look bullish on the weekly/monthly timeframe. Price had a strong monthly close above the 9 month EMA and the 50, which I've mentioned needed to hold for any bullish continuation. This is despite the SEC crackdown. I find it quite suspicious that Blackrock and others filed for Bitcoin ETF's shortly after that. Another example of why things still don't sit right with me. Price is now holding above the 200 week MA despite venturing below it. Now, price is consolidating above $30k.
As much as I've grown to dislike Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto space since 2021, the idea seems like it will continue to stick around, while distrust and dissatisfaction with governments continue from both the political left and the political right. I do not think this means anything good about near-term societal trends, which you can read about in previous posts.
I'd much rather make a video about this now, but Tradingview has made it impossible for me to successfully record my screen since some recent updates. I haven't been engaged enough on here to try and get it sorted out.
In any case, you can see that this is an incredibly important pivot point for Bitcoin. It's butting up against a major downtrend, the 100 week MA (yellow), and a previously broken uptrend. If it can continue consolidating here and break out, we could see a pretty huge upswing towards a new all-time high, maybe sooner than others are expecting. I am no longer much of a supporter of this market, or I would have been buying the lows (just my emotional bias speaking here). I am a little disappointed to see it doing so well, despite the clear manipulation, fraud, and rampant misrepresentation.
Something to pay attention to is the TOTAL crypto market cap, which looks far less bullish than Bitcoin itself. I am still worried about Stablecoins, and the implication of possible criminal investigation.
To make it clear: I am flipping a bit bullish in terms of price, but still bearish on fundamentals. On the bearish technical side, a close back below the 200 week MA after a high-volume selloff in this range should send price at least back to the $15k lows.
Of course, anything is possible! This is meant for speculation and entertainment only. This represents my opinion, and is not meant as financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
$BTC IDEA TO BULL MARKET 2024/2025This is just an idea that came from analysing the previous bull and bear markets.
- As next move I expect 48/50k with a deep correction to 27/22k. That are some important levels between this big zone, especially in the lower part.
- As you can see some of that thoughts "predicted" the time when low was putted and the same logic predict that the next top will be between set/out 2025 with 160k-208k as target.
- This is just a idea and you should never trade or marry an idea. Focus on what the chart tells you, gl
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
BTC cycles 0.786BTC Cycles , correction at 0.786 Fib on Log
Weekly timeframe
in every of the last 3 cycles
If we put Fib on the first top(weekly, no wicks) we get 45430$ level
If we put Fib on second top (weekly, no wicks) we get 48640$ level
0.786 Correction for this cycle If we put Fib on the first top(weekly, no wicks) we get 45430$ for 0.786 log level
If we put Fib on second top (weekly, no wicks) we get 48640$ for 0.786 log level
Bitcoin Roadmap 2025It's been a while since I did a Bitcoin TA; I've been focusing on Chainlink mostly these days. Still, I spent the last few days going over everything to come to this conclusion as the most probable outcome next two years . There's a high chance we won't see an all-time high until late 2024.
Like always, it's never easy to predict what Bitcoin is going to do next. You would think that this last cycle, we would have some sort of clear top and clear bottom so we could confidently calculate the next cycle top and bottom. But, in true Bitcoin fashion, we get a mixed bag.
Last Cycle
First time in history, Bitcoin had a double top for a cycle:
- April 2021 - Psychological Top
- November 2021 - Technical Top
The entire market topped out in April 2021; a few coins came in with higher highs later that year.
Something that is crystal clear is that Bitcoin took exactly the same amount of time to go from cycle low to cycle top (1064 days). It also took the same time to get from cycle low exactly 364 days; it was that easy, guys.
So, this is where we arrive at the first cycle top date: October 2025. 1064 days from the cycle low in November 2022 would give you that date.
The next date for a cycle top is August 2025, giving us the cycle top range from August to October 2025. A while back, I published a TA on Bitcoin's volume on a macro scale.
I found very interesting patterns and dates looking into the volume.
As you can see from this updated picture, every time Bitcoin has a bullish cross on volume, it takes 670 days to top. We just had the bullish cross in October this year, so 670 days from the cross would be August 2025.
Whenever Bitcoin breaks the 1/2 Gann, it takes about 924 days till the top. This cycle, we broke the 1/2 Gann in March 2023, so 924 days from March 2023 puts you at September 2025.https://www.tradingview.com/x/Wp7wYyMP/
It takes about 1400 days from cycle top to top; 1400 days from the November 2021 top would be October 2025.
This insanely powerful time sequence that predicted major Bitcoin events has failed this year for me for the first time; the next two dates are July 2024 and, you guessed it, September 2025.
If you calculate the time when the Gaussian channel turns green to the cycle top and calculate the average, you get 750 days. July 23rd, 2023, we Gaussian turned green; 750 days from that date puts you in the last week of August 2025, basically September 2025.
As you can see, the month September 2025 has a very high chance of being the month Bitcoin has its cycle high, and that would put Bitcoin, according to this model, at 175k.
### The 2024 Playbook
The most likely scenario is one big flush out next year. The Satoshi roundtable most likely is just going to do the classic 50% pullback into the CME gap, right?
Pre-Halving pullback is always deep and ranges from 40-50%! Well, why would they change their playbook? If it works every goddamn time, emotion gets the best of most of the traders and investors like every cycle. This is how I think it's going to play out.
Bitcoin rallies to 0.5-0.618 Fib 40-48k till Mid-December to mid-January 2023 at 48k; Bitcoin ETF gets approved, BULLISH NEWS floods the news and internet. www.coindesk.com
Analysts at Bloomberg predict that if a spot bitcoin ETF is not approved in this period, there’s still a 90% chance for approval by Jan. 10."
It is at this point where Bitcoin (40-48k) will reverse and go down to close the CME GAP at 20k and also creating the macro Bitcoin double bottom. It won't be easy to get Bitcoin down to that level, so "FLOOD BEARISH NEWS" is on the table. War, COVID, bank bankruptcies, new Bitcoin laws, new Bitcoin taxes - choose your weapon! When Bitcoin hits that 20k, that's when you load up!
You might think there is no way it's that easy - a 50% pullback to the CME GAP. But tell me if it works every time, why change or stop doing it?
The only comment I would like to make out of this CME gap is that it's the only time in history Bitcoin has closed and opened a gap in the same weekend. I could be wrong, but it seems to be so; if you do find another time, share it below.
So there you have it; will it play out like this? Who knows. One thing for sure is this rally won't last very long now.
Conclusion
- Rally to 40-48k: December 2023 - January 2024
- ETF approval: January 2024
- Reversal to 20k CME GAP by Halving (April 2024)
- Bull Market starts: September to November 2024
- Cycle Top: September 2025 to October 2025
BTC new Elliot Wave 1 thru 5 market has started!I have recently published an idea that we could be in wave B of a ABC correction, where the C wave would have a very violent downtrend, anywhere from 11k to 3k for BTC final wave. But looking closer at the charts and going back to the books, it has come to my attention that, a B wave on a ABC pattern, can too go above the wave A initial, or top of wave 5! To recognize a wave C we need to look for that 1,2,3,4,5 down pattern. That is exactly what we had with something that began looking like a double top, but it was actually correction waves A and B. So after wave B went above the prior top, wave C had a 1 thru 5 pattern. I do believe we are now part of wave 3 minor, of this major wave 1 in a new bull cycle! My opinion is that if we get a extended 1.618 wave 3 to 75k, we will get a reverse wave 4, that its measure could indicate what the final BTC top. By measuring wave 4 retrace, and having a target of -1.236 or -1.618.
Please feel free to share your own opinion. Thank you
BTC will flourish again in the next 3 yearsThe Bitcoin bear market is slowly coming to an end.
The sellers are exhausted and the momentum on the short side is decreasing drastically.
Even if the year 2023 will be rather boring, it gives us the opportunity to accumulate for the long term.
Use the time!
Bitcoin is not a short term thing
Bitcoin Going to $40 Million? (Elliott Wave)This one is a bit hard to believe and I am not putting much weight on it, but I will publish it just for fun.
The channeling indicates that we had wave-A ending at the peak in 2013, and wave-B is just now ending after forming a running contracting triangle. Wave-B also relates to wave-A by exactly 161.8% in time (when measured from the time of the first recorded BTC/USD transaction in Oct 2009), which is the perfect amount of time for wave-B.
The internal structure of wave-B also fits nicely into a running contracting triangle with wave-a being the largest, wave-c being the 2nd largest, and wave-e being the smallest. Wave-b and wave-d also relate by 61.8%, and all the time relations fit nicely as well. The triangle channeling has a nice contracting shape with a small amount of throwover from wave-e.
While from a wave perspective this chart looks pretty good, the fact that it targets around $40 million by 2027 makes it seem extremely improbable. The only way I see this as possible would be for there to be extremely high inflation in the US, leading to a collapse in the value of the dollar and a massive expansion of the supply of dollars over the next 3 years.
That scenario seems very improbable to me and I do not expect this to happen so quickly, but I am publishing this chart because it is an interesting wave count. There may be an outside possibility that it actually does play out considering skyrocketing global deficits and overall terrible governance and monetary policy choices, and the potential for extremely inflationary events such as global world war.
I remember when BTC was trading for ~$200 most people used to say it could never reach $10,000+ because "the market cap would be too high" and that is likely the same reason why people will think it could never reach over $10M. The idea of what people thought was "too high" completely failed in the past, and it is likely to fail again in the future as market caps will again completely surpass what people now think is "too high." Maybe it doesn't happen by 2027 but at some point crypto market caps will likely be much larger than what most people imagine is possible today.
Crypto bulls coming in with their plans.The idea is simple.
Bitcoin is still an asset that moves in regular 4-year cycles from bottom to the top.
Has anything changed in 2023?
Well, we'll soon find out!
Cheers to a glorious 2024 :)
BTCUSDT THE HOLY RESISTANCEGOES up to 48000 $ area
WILL be down to take nap 32000 $ area
GOES up to ATH again
then i will show up to analyze the rest :)
enjoy...
Maximum drops in $BTC during the 135 days prior to the previous Maximum drops in CRYPTOCAP:BTC during the 135 days prior to the previous halvings.
Seeing especially what happened during this period before the 3rd Halving it is still early to celebrate. From current prices if this were a top, a same fall would take us to $15.7k for $BTC.
BTCUSD - A Tale of a Ten Year Old Support Resistance LineOnce again BTC is going to that 10 year old support turned resistance line, ladies and gents place your bets!
- Monthly MACD (Bullish)
- Monthly Pekipek's Divergence BETA (Bullish)
- Monthly RSI (Bullish)
- Monthly Stochastic RSI (Bullish)
BNC:BLX BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Long term BTC halving waves with modelsLong term BTC halving waves with models
BTC price models
Original stock to flow model (before stupid refits)
Trololo's model
my own tx model regression (as per reddit posts)
Also various indicators as marked on the chart.
BITCOIN IS GOING TO EXPLODE SOON!
Hello Trading View friends!
I will bring another analysis about BTC.
Notice this pattern that I describe in the center of the graph:
This classic widening pattern is a consolidation that occurs in the asset.
See the 2014-2016 cycle.
The price came from the top to the bottom and entered a widening pattern.
After making 3 touches on the 3-week chart near the top, it broke through and made an extraordinary move.
See the current cycle now:
The price once again came from top to bottom.
It produced 2 touches near the top on the 3-week chart.
Will there be a strong upward breakout like the 2014-2016 cycle?
In my view, there are reasons to understand that yes! And we are very close to this moment.
And you, what do you think of this possibility?
Leave your boost and follow me here on Trading View!
To the next!
Bitcoin (BTC) headed to 44k followed by 32k then back up againFair value gap suggest we have some strong liquidity magnets up above us at the 44k area.
I see no reason why those cannot be easily filled given the momentum we have.
Following that, I anticipate a violent shakeout back down to the 50% retracement of the the weekly fvg (cyan) at 32k before resuming course for new all time highs by or on May 2024.
One interesting thing to note is that there have been 2 major weekly FVGs since the pico bottom on Nov 2022 and they have both held extremely well and gave people a very high probability setup to enter long.
We will get another entry on the bull FVGs coming up.
The Human Weakness: We Love Pretty LiesYou can make a person believe in anything, so long as they believe that enough other people believe in it.
This is one of the greatest human weaknesses, and it is exploited to no end through marketing schemes, which of course you are too smart to fall for, because you are special, just like everyone.
Here is the fascinating thing, which you (if you are a Bitcoin believer) may not have realized until now (and may still be incapable of realizing even after having been told!), because marketing actually does work on you:
Bitcoin IS a marketing scheme .
Do you see the pattern here, or are you still not getting it?
You are being shown exactly what you want to see. Bitcoin is an illusion. Look at the price chart, really look at it. Now look at the narratives. "Bitcoin cycles" look a little bit TOO PERFECT? That's because they were made to be!! The price has been controlled this entire time by a select group of marketers, who came together at the very beginning to create Bitcoin and use it as a vehicle to become disgustingly rich. If you can look at the price chart from this frame of mind, then you know exactly where we really are in the manipulation scheme map, and where we're heading.
Bitcoiners may ironically recognize that all other cryptos are just marketing schemes designed to scam ignorant people, while still not recognizing that Bitcoin itself is also just a marketing scheme designed to scam ignorant people. This is how good we humans are at deceiving ourselves.
Bitcoin peaked at precisely $69,000.00 on the Binance chart, and it was just to make a meme joke at your expense. The joke was this: We can literally put it RIGHT in your face, and you still CAN'T see it.
This same exact pattern has gone on since the very beginning of markets, and really to the beginning of life itself. Do not be tricked by your own mind. Develop the capacity to create semi-original thoughts within your mind by thinking outside of a purely social context.
