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Bitcoin Halving: Understanding the Impact on Market Expansion I want to share with you some interesting statistics about the price of Bitcoin during previous halvings. As you know, halving is an event when the amount of new bitcoins that are mined is reduced by half. This leads to a reduction in the supply of bitcoins in the market, which can affect their price. Let's take a look at what happened to the price of Bitcoin during previous halvings. Each halving had its stages of development, which include four phases: Bull Market, Bear Market, Accumulation, Expansion. The first halving occurred in 2012, and the price of one bitcoin was $12.2. After that halving, the price increased by 6.6 times. The second halving occurred in 2016, and the price of one bitcoin was $657. After that halving, the price increased by 12.9 times. The third halving occurred in 2020, and the price of one bitcoin was $8,500. Now we are waiting for the fourth halving, which will occur in 2024. Each of these stages is characterized by certain market trends. Bull Market: This is a period of rising asset prices. In the case of Bitcoin, it means that the price is rising. This stage can last from several months to several years. Bear Market: This is a period of falling asset prices. In the case of Bitcoin, it means that the price is falling. This stage can also last from several months to several years. Accumulation: This is a period when the price seems stable but is usually at a low level. This stage can last from several months to several years. Expansion: this is a period when the price starts to rise again after a previous accumulation period. This stage can last from several months to several years. It should be noted that not all halvings were accompanied by the same market phases, but this is a general pattern that can be observed in the Bitcoin market. Therefore, based on historical data, it can be argued that the halving affects the price of Bitcoin. However, the halving is not the only factor that affects the price. Other factors such as news, government regulations, and technical aspects can also affect the price of Bitcoin. It is also important to note that it is difficult to predict the exact developments of Bitcoin prices. Although history can give us a general idea of how the price may change in the future, the actual impact on the price depends on many factors that may turn out to be unpredictable. Therefore, for traders and investors, it is important to study the market, analyze news and technical aspects, and be prepared for unpredictable events in order to make the best decisions for their portfolio. If you liked the idea, don't forget to like and leave a comment! Best regards,
BNC:BLXLong
by CHOWTRADE
Bitcoin Elapsed Time Between Events ChartI am once again publishing this Bitcoin chart (3-day time frame) showing the entire price history, and just how closely the last two cycles matched as far as the elapsed time between events. The reason for publishing it again is that I have added another event (when a new all-time high was hit). I then measured the elapsed time from each bear market bottom to when a new all-time high was hit. Once again, I was amazed how close these measurements were to each other for the last two cycles. Obviously, this isn't a massive discovery, but I find the consistency very interesting. It will also be interesting to see if the elapsed times for this market cycle once again come close to the last two market cycles. Before continuing I want to say that Bitcoin’s very first market cycle was much shorter than the last two market cycles. So, it is possible that the fact that the last two matched so closely was just a fluke. Anyway, I will be watching closely to see how this market cycle plays out. So far, the elapsed time from the bear market bottom on November 21st, 2022, to the halving which is estimated to take place in late April 2024 (approximately 512 days) should be very close to the last two cycles. Bitcoin Market Cycle #2 vs #3 Cycle #2 - Bear market bottom to halving = 542 days Cycle #3 - Bear market bottom to halving = 513 days Cycle #4 - Bear market bottom to halving = estimated = 512 days Cycle #2 - Halving to Bull market peak = 526 days Cycle #3 - Halving to Bull market peak = 548 days Cycle #2 - Bull market peak to bear market bottom = 363 days Cycle #3 - Bull market peak to bear market bottom= 376 days Cycle #2 - Bear market bottom to a new all-time high = 723 days Cycle #3 - Bear market bottom to a new all-time high = 717 days Market cycle #2 total duration (bottom to bottom) = 1431 days Market cycle #3 total duration (bottom to bottom) = 1437 days Just for fun I want to use this data to estimate when a new all-time high might be hit for this current market cycle. What I will do is split the difference between cycle #2 (723 days) and cycle #3 (717 days) which would give me 720 days. So, if I project out 720 days from the bear market bottom on November 21st, 2022, I get the date November 9th, 2024. Obviously, I wouldn't expect it to hit the exact date but I would watch for a new all-time high sometime in October or November of next year. Of course this could all be meaningless and Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high much sooner. Like I said this is more just for fun. If we wanted to take it a step further and try to calculate when this current market cycle might peak we cold add the elapsed times from cycle #2 (Bottom to peak = 1068 days), and Cycle #3 (Bottom to peak = 1061 days). So if we split the difference we would get 1065 days. So, if I project out 1065 days from the bear market bottom on November 21st, 2022, I get the date October 20th, 2025 for the peak of this market cycle. Most likely this is all meaningless but looking at the past price history of Bitcoin the bottoms and tops do tend to occur primarily in November and December. So this might not be far off unless this market cycle is much different than the last two. As I said earlier, I will be watching to see hoe this current market cycle plays out and how it compares to the last two cycle.
BNC:BLXLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
2
Bitcoin Where to Buy- Everything is in Chart. - Actually TheKing entered a a correction phase. - We climbed for 4 Months Straight. - This kind of retracements are just normal. - if TheKing still bullish the maximum correction will hit -38.2% Fibo (around 25k$). - if Theking get hurts by a bad news (FA), the correction could bring the price around -61.8% FIbo (around 21.5k$). - The worst max pain dip would be around -78.6% Fibo (around 18.5k$). - Have a quick look at EMAs Rainbow Crossing up to get a more clear view and understand future movements. -- imho we are still slowly turning to a bullish impulse. -- Nothing confirmed that we will hit lowers prices for now. Stay Safe ! Happy Tr4ding !
BNC:BLX
by thecryer
7
Bitcoin bear case, $3,560?Bitcoin bear case is an extremely low probability as it involves betting against the stock market for a recession, and the potential collapse of bitcoin when looking at the monthly chart but nothing more than a healthy correction on the 5 year chart. From a technical standpoint the parabolic green curve line break will signal a red flag of downside targets, along with a break of the monthly upward slowing head and shoulders neckline which has a target of $3,560. Interestingly there is also a CME Futures gap at this level too. There is also a 0.5 fib at the $3,600 level which is another confluence. Another complementing theory is usually we notice that price very quickly goes up (or down) to a certain level only to then give back and return the whole move to retest the price where it initiated often referred to as (testing liquidity) and we have seen this frequently on all time frames. The idea would then suggest at retest of the $3,800 wick giving back the whole move from the March 2020 COVID low which went to $69,000 thereafter. From a 5 yearly candle perspective of green candles starting from 2010, a red long legged doji would be significantly bullish from a 5 year candle perspective (2020-2025), to initiate a long from 2025 to 2030. The assumption of the market is we continue to see 4 years cycles that always go up no matter what, therefore in this idea we are flipping everything on it's head for market participants leaving them confused about what the long term investment bitcoin offers particularly when looking at the price structure from a 5 year candle perspective. My personal opinion is that the low may already be in on Bitcoin and we continue to the upside in accordance with a 4 year cycle perspective which seems to be the more probable and palatable outcome since the trend is usually your friend. However understanding opposing ideas is always necessary despite how extreme they may be, the idea should be considered to avoid bias and overconfidence, and the decision to accept or reject and idea is based on your belief on the market which is entirely separated from winning and losing. All the best! :D
BNC:BLXShort
by TheCheartBreaker
Follow the moneyThe conection between Bitcoin and other risk assets (stocks for example) can be reduced to liquidity in the markets. The easier it is to borrow money, the higher the price will go. Central bank policies, interest rates, influence the overall liquidity environment. In times of economic expansion, with accommodative monetary policies, liquidity tends to be abundant, leading to risk-taking behavior among investors who may allocate funds to both traditional and digital assets like Bitcoin. This is why in 2020 pandemics, for example, we had problems but prices were going up. Then inflation went parabolic as everything had too much money, as we produced less and consumed more. The central banks had to hit the brakes and we almost jumped trough the windscreen. As the fight against inflation is about to end, expect bitcoin price to go to 100.000 +. We will find the news to explain why it happened, no worries. We always did.
BNC:BLXLong
by SorinBlajan
Bitcoin may dump before we get to the #Bitcoin halveningIn the ever-turbulent world of cryptocurrency, where fortunes are made and lost in the blink of an eye, we approach the much-anticipated Bitcoin halvening with the same level of certainty as a weather forecast in the Bermuda Triangle. As we edge closer to this event, which historically has been as predictable as a game of roulette, the community braces itself for the possibility of a price dump. Why, you ask? Well, because in the realm of digital currencies, logic often takes a backseat to wild speculation and the whims of the market. Consider the halvening as a sort of financial Groundhog Day. If the Bitcoin shadow is seen, investors scurry back into their holes, fearing a price drop. It's a time-honored tradition, akin to reading tea leaves or consulting a Magic 8-Ball for investment advice. The halvening, which cuts the reward for mining Bitcoin in half, is often viewed as a bullish event, a beacon of hope for higher prices. However, in a plot twist worthy of a daytime soap opera, there are whispers that this time, things might just go south. Why? Because if cryptocurrency has taught us anything, it's that it has a penchant for doing the exact opposite of what's expected. So, as we count down to the halvening, prepare for a rollercoaster ride of epic proportions. Will Bitcoin follow the script and soar to new heights, or will it throw a curveball and plummet, leaving investors and enthusiasts alike scratching their heads? Only time will tell. But one thing is certain: in the unpredictable world of Bitcoin, anything is possible, and nothing is quite as it seems. Buckle up, it's going to be an interesting ride!
BNC:BLXShort
by USCG_Vet
1